I've never wanted a complete un-random system, but I would like to see previous results have more of an impact on current behavior (I like how you put that, very clear and easy to understand) - but not a a complete impact. I don't want to see the Jordan in this scenario hit his next 8 shots to "catch-up". But I'd maybe like to see a better chance as he gets more misses. Maybe a slight modified fg% as it deviates from his real percentage. And by slight, I mean by less than one percent per maybe five percent off.
We'll try with half a percent.
So if Jordan is shooting 16.6% so far, then under the current system, number 13 has a 50% chance of making it. Under what I say, fga 13 has a 53-point-something% chance of making it.
It goes in and now he'll have less of a chance of making fga 14 than he did 13, but more of a chance than if he was already on a hot streak.
Even while typing this, though, I shake my head. This isn't my problem with the sim - guys shooting below their rl average. My problem with fg% is that it is so drastically higher than RL... which comes back to defense and the lack of impact it has on the sim.
And you're dead on when it comes to older players being severely overpriced. This version of the sim was supposed to normalize fg% (fg%+ stats), but it did a really poor job of implementing it.
For example, 1960-1961 Elgin Baylor shot 43%. I don't want that high of usage with that low of fg% on my team. But, his 43% was above the league average at the time. It was 104% of the league average in fact.
But we don't see that reflected in the sim. But we sure as hell see his rebounding take a huge hit. We see Wilt and Russell and everyone else from the 60s lose their rebounds and ftas because the game was at a different "pace".
So these important stats are "normalized", while fg% is not. That same 43% elgin shot then would likely be much higher.
In 08-09, the league average was .459. So if we're calling that year the normalization point, he's shooting on the good side of 46%. I can dig that. He might be worth his salary then.
But they didn't implement that, even though they said they would.
for reference, the league average over the last five years:
08-09 .459
07-08 .457
06-07 .458
05-06 .454
04-05 .447
I'll take elgin's 104% of any of those. I don't want his 43% fg% un-normalized.
Not when they fabricated numbers for offensive boards and turnovers, then made the salaries not add up.
(they also don't normalize personal fouls, or at least there is nothing shown to indicate they do. I have a big issue with this, too... If players got all those rebounds and assists because of pace, then they got extra fouls because of pace, too).