looks like we're still missing a few people, so I'm gonna try a few more iterations, but I keep getting pretty similar results.
| Category |
This Year |
Last Year |
| minutes |
19680 |
19680 |
| usage |
104.3 |
104.3 |
| efg% |
55.7 |
54.3 |
| ts% |
59.5 |
58.1 |
| 3pm |
512 |
542 |
| ast% |
72.4 |
62.5 |
| fouled% |
10.6 |
11.1 |
| fp48 |
17.99 |
16.88 |
| orb% |
35.2 |
35.8 |
| drb% |
94.4 |
96.0 |
| crb% |
129.5 |
131.8 |
| tov% |
13.5 |
12.1 |
| def |
68.1 |
72.1 |
| stocks% |
16.5 |
17.8 |
Thoughts:
This is really a top three team build, and my personal metrics say that the teams are about one percent better per minute this time than last time even over a 5-team spread (top 3 teams are roughly 2% better than top 3 last season). However, looking at the breakdown, it's apparent how dominant a factor efg% plays in my metric. I'm much stronger there and in assists (which I don't personally value much at all) but weaker in literally every other area, including a pair of areas I already struggled with last season: forcing turnovers and getting to the line. I think my only hope here is if my best teams get easy draws and get some playoff luck.
I have one build that's more balanced across all five teams that yields a very similar 5TA where I basically have made the worst teams less worse but feel like I've significantly hurt the best teams. That build's only hope is all teams make playoffs and get easy division draws / playoff luck.
I have another line of thought where I stacked two teams, made two more okay teams, and then just have one real **** the bed squad. Looking at it and comparing it to last year's squad, my best 4 teams this year would be better than the best last 4, and then the last team is probably as bad in a completely different way. Again, though, I feel like my primary evaluation tool when using this comparison is flawed, because when I look at the breakdown of each stat, I think my teams last year were better. My metric has been really good to me since I started using it, though, so I'm going to trust it (what else can I ******* do at this point anyway? lol). This is probably the build I'm ultimately going to go with, but I'm going to sleep on it and see if I can't make some improvements tomorrow. If not, I'll enter my teams so we're not waiting to give Ben his all-defense bonus.
Where I think I went wrong:
My plan was to take one big with a good amount of minutes and then do a super rotation with the other. Ed single-handedly destroyed that idea when I thought I had Lucas in the bag for the round 5 turn and he took him. I panicked and took the guy with the best per-minute value on my board - by far - who happens to play so few minutes. I think that move right there dictated that I'm no longer on a 5-team strategy no matter how hard I try to move stuff around. I think Rob & Ben are spot on that he's a great value, just not early in the 5th. I think he's an early 7th rounder at best.
I'm also insanely frustrated with Chandler, as i was the last time I picked him, as he is like two different people. He doesn't rebound like you think he does and he doesn't play defense like you think he does. He kind of does one and kind of does the other, but he never does both exceedingly well at the same time. I still like him better than Capela - Tyson's worst defense is as good as his best, and you're stuck with 3x 50 or below defense seasons with Capela - but I definitely hate him where I got him.
On that note, I feel about the 2nd round like Ben said he feels in the 4th... at least once you get past the first two (maybe three) picks of the turn: everybody that's available feels like they should go mid/late 2nd round, not early 2nd. I hate it in every format, but most especially Savage. I do like the early part of the third there, however. The fifth feels bad, too. I've drafted two Savages in a row there (21, 20) and I just ******* hate drafting there.
About the only picks I made that I like are Kidd, LaVine, and Oladipo. When I took LaVine, though, I was expecting to pair him with some other similar guys, and that just never came about. Like Rob mentioned in the podcast, I expected a ton of guys that went in round 7 to go in like round 9 or 10, even with the new seasons. One weakness of my evaluation tool metric is that it undervalues three pointers drastically. So to combat that this time, I decided I was going to pick one position and just make that the bomber position. Well, I decided that after round 2 when the run on PGs went crazy. I seriously thought I was going to have Bird & Kyrie and was so stoked about it. Anyway. I figured if I was taking the best per-value minute dudes at the other positions, covering for weaknesses with positional flexibility, I could get an edge on everyone else who was passing on those type players and build a godly efficient, high volume 3-point rotation out of Savage nobodies. Y'all **** all over that in round 7. I don't know if that move even would have made sense, but that was the plan.
I think a reasonable projection based on what I've seen and what I've experienced in Savage is in the 8-12 range. I obviously hope that I'm wrong, but I don't want to get my hopes up too much only to have reality crush my soul.
5/8/2023 2:52 AM (edited)