By the end of this very long sentence, you will want to tell me I'm whining, and not because of the following content, which, of course, you haven't yet read (unless you employ a very unorthodox method of reading) though it's likely to give you that opinion, but because I've so expertly planted the "You're whining" seed in the very beginning, thereby neutralizing such criticism, though it probably would have been quite a bit more effective had I made this point much, much more concisely and succinctly, and without such explanation.

So.

WALKS ARE BROKEN! WHARRGARBL!

The case of Hal Haid is interesting. In real life, he pitched 47 innings in 1928, and walked 11. His BB/9 was 2.11. In WIS, he has 50 IP/162, BB/9# of 2.12.

In the Performance History, he averages 52 IP. The BB/9 in his "worst" season is 5.63. The BB/9 in his "best" season is 4.17. His BB/9 overall is 3.75.

This may be an outlier, but not because of small sample size. '28 Haid has been used 119 times since the last major update. At an average of 52 IP per team, this is 6188 innings we're talking about here. In Goose Gossage's entire 22 year career (one year as a starter), he pitched 1089.3 innings.

But you know what? Forget that. If Hal Haid had had (fun word combination to type) 6188 innings pitched in his career, the career innings pitched leaderboard would look like this:

1. Cy Young 7354.7
2. Hal Haid 6188
3. Pud Galvin 6003.3

This is a rather large sample size.

So, why is he walking around 177% of his BB/9# expectation?

1. The expectation is flawed due to league averages.
I dunno, he's got a 149 BB/9+

2. Managers are using him wrong. He's pitching too often or for too many pitches per game.
I dunno, his other stats aren't suffering. I'm making the assumption that he's not being used every day by a lot of his owners (and practically never by many others), and that most people who use him know you don't want him throwing any more than 15 pitches at a time.

3. The SIM isn't real life. He's facing guys who draw more walks, and the likelihood of a BB event is controlled more by the batter in the SIM.
Yes he is, and yes it is. 177%, though?

3a. He's so good, he's often put into the game to face the opposition's toughest hitters.
That's probably true.

4. A fluke, an outlier.
Maybe so, but what's the likelihood of that? That's a serious question. Somebody please approximate the likelihood of that.

5. Something's broken in the SIM, or in Hal Haid.

What say you?

your #3 hypothesis accounts for most of the answer, #1 accounts for some, and #5 may account for part of the answer but not the most significant part. 3a yes but it's minor, 2 and 4 probably not.

In your order...

#3 - I agree this would be the strongest factor. I'm willing to believe you that it's most of the difference. It's just a wish, and I'm not asking you to do it to support your point, but I'd like to see the math. I'm unskilled.

#1 - Doesn't the BB/9+ counter that point? Maybe it doesn't, but I'm not bright enough to know why. That's likely.

#5 - I don't know. I'd like to confirm or eliminate each of 1-4 to see if #5 is true. I'd like to know how much of the discrepancy 1-4 account for to see what's to be assigned to #5 or some as-yet unnamed factor.

I agree with you completely on the others.

I go back and forth on this issue. I'll have several teams where it seems like walks are out of control, but then I'll go back and look at my progressive teams where walks (for my team's pitchers) are within 10% of real life.

My opinion is #3, with the added factor that the OBP strategy is very popular right now. Guys with RL averages under .300 and OBP over .400 are way too common.

That said, I think walks could use a little tweak. I'd like to see walks depend more upon the pitcher. I've heard it's something like 60% batter and 40% pitcher (correct me if I'm wrong). I'd like to see it closer to 50/50. That would probably make a noticeable difference.

I actually think the batter/pitcher weighting is about right.

About your #3 explanation - I like it, but I'm not sure. Is 177% about right for most good relievers? They're all facing the same group of guys Haid is.

A look at the other top relievers by usage shows ranges from 128% to 155% or so. '24 Babe Adams is really weird with about AMillion%. Haid at 177% might make relative sense, because he's probably not quite as good in the SIM as the most-used guys.

The most similar pitcher I can find to Hal is Barney Schultz '64.

IP/G is 1.64 vs 1.74
HR/9+ is 411 vs 261 but raw HR/9 is 0.19 to 0.18
BB/9# is 2.09 vs 2.12
BB/9+ is 136 vs 149

Barney has been used 21 times. His sim BB/9 is 2.92.

I don't know how to explain the mystery of Hal.

booger.... is that you? aka "self absorbed little *****"

wow, first post ever and right out of the box going after a HOFer...you'd be lucky to know half as much about SIM as Booger does after your SIM career is long over. Of course, this new id is just a cover since you probably got banned from SIM with your old one...proving who really is the "self absorbed" one.

Wow Boogerlips looks ALOT like Joe Morgan.

Quote: Originally posted by winnetka1 on 9/18/2009wow, first post ever and right out of the box going after a HOFer...you'd be lucky to know half as much about SIM as Booger does after your SIM career is long over. Of course, this new id is just a cover since you probably got banned from SIM with your old one...proving who really is the "self absorbed" one.

It's safe to assume someone used an "alter ego" to post that.

Maybe even booger himself, in a "Who Is Harry Kellerman and Why Is He Saying Those Terrible Things About Me?" deal.

I don't understand what Joe Morgan is for.

Neither in this thread, nor in real life, now that FJM is gone... aside from the wonderful one-day Deadspin takeover.

Boogerlips did a "Joe Morgan plays SS" experiment that didn't fair so well