Round 1 Roster Selection Strategies, 2020 Topic

Some of you are so clever and funny with these write-ups! I don't have nearly the creativity. . . . for whatever reason I am just not good at explaining why I did what I did. Maybe the fact that half the time I have no idea why I did what I did has something to do with that. Any-who, on to my teams:

$80M - Maximum Wage
Jack Taylor and Wilbur Wood are my workhorses, with Sonny Gray filling in. I will also use any excuse to put Ryne Duren on my team, he's like the 50's version of Mitch Williams. . . and I agree that’s not necessarily a good thing. I expect to see a lot of the same hitters used – Jack Doyle, Yank Robinson, Kid Elberfeld, Odell Hale, Ed Lennox, Wally Schang, Dick Porter. Defense? We don’t need no stinking defense.

Batting (excluding pitchers): 5398 PA, .310 AVG .395 OBP, .442 SLG
Pitching (includes a 31 IP mop-up): 1345 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .217 OAV, 77 HR (8 by MU)
Ballpark: West Side Grounds - .98

$90M – O.G.’s on the Bump
I know it’s up for debate right now, but I default to deadball pitching when given the option. Call it conditioning, like Pavlov's dog. Starters 15 Dave Davenport and 17 Stan Coveleski comprise over half my innings so they better be pretty good. I'm counting on Billy Hamilton to be very productive batting leadoff.

Batting (excluding pitchers): 5415 PA, .327 AVG .407 OBP, .447 SLG
Pitching (includes a 27 IP mop-up): 1381 IP, 1.94 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .209 OAV, 18 HR
Ballpark: Braves Field - .89

$110M – Looking Out For #1
Like most, just went with the easy pick of 1, but there was plenty to choose from so I didn’t see the need to spend too much time looking for an alternative. Lots of name power here both hitting (Cobb, Wagner, Lajoie, Berra, Flick, and my oddball choice of Frank Thomas at 1st). . . and pitching (Cy Young, Koufax, and Pedro).

Batting (excluding pitchers): 5597 PA, .326 AVG .416 OBP, .498 SLG
Pitching (includes a 42 IP mop-up): 1392 IP, 1.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .202 OAV, 75 HR (13 by MU)
Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (I) – .90

$120M – The Arm Dangler
I went with Joss, Chamberlain, Kimbrel, Cobb, and Furcal. Why Chamberlain and not Kershaw? See deadball note above and . . .well. . . I love me some Elton Chamberlain. All leagues, all caps, he has never disappointed (Jinx Mode Complete). Overall I struggled with this roster the most and have very little confidence in it. Oddball pick here is 73 Carl Yastrzemski at 3B (A+ range).

Batting (excluding pitchers): 5388 PA, .310 AVG .404 OBP, .483 SLG
Pitching (includes a 30 IP mop-up): 1365 IP, 1.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .208 OAV, 43 HR (10 by MU)
Ballpark: Turner Field – .95


$140M - White Sox & Tigers & Cards, OH MY!
My studs from each team are:
White Sox = SP Walsh, SP Cicotte, SS Appling
Tigers = OF’s Cobb, Heilmann, Wingo, 1B Cullenbine
Cards = SP Gibson, 3B Torre, 2B Hornsby
I am also trying Detroit reliever Willie Hernandez for the first time, with his 141 IP but only 2 at a time. He’s gonna get a TON of appearances.

Batting (excluding pitchers): 5576 PA, .372 AVG .446 OBP, .547 SLG
Pitching (includes a 32 IP mop-up): 1424 IP, 1.47 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .192 OAV, 36 HR
Ballpark: Busch Stadium (II) – .94

$180M – Tag Team 177
I didn’t put a huge amount of thought into this one. . . for pitchers I took 13 Walter Johnson (364 IP) and then a who’s who of pitchers under 200 IP. For hitters I grabbed full timers King Kelly at C and Honus Wagner at SS, then a host of players with 400-499PA for platooning at the other spots, including DH. This will be interesting to manage.

Batting (excluding pitchers): 6022 PA, .359 AVG .441 OBP, .576 SLG
Pitching (includes a 30 IP mop-up): 1440 IP, 1.47 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, .176 OAV, 39 HR
Ballpark: Ebbets Field – 1.02
6/7/2020 11:30 AM
Posted by chargingryno on 6/7/2020 9:39:00 AM (view original):
Posted by besterateam on 6/7/2020 4:57:00 AM (view original):
Wow brianjw took Pedro. I never even thought of taking him...
I’m interested in their thought process to taking Pedro. I knew I wanted Maddux because I have a prejudice against deadballers, my head goes crazy seeing all the errors committed with them on the mound. But it was never a debate between Pedro and Maddux for me.
Pedro had the least amount of inflation (well ahead of Joss, a bit better than Maddux), lowest OAV# by far, and playing at Dodger Stadium I didn't mind his worse HR9# as much.

Not feeling good being one of just 3 on him though!!!
7.0.3
6/7/2020 1:51 PM
80 M - It was a very good year

Hitters: 5763 PA, .287/.370/.431
Pitchers: 1335 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 99 HR

I didn't have a ton of strategy here; just filter the list of players and build as close as possible to a standard 80 Million team from that. So for position players, lots of speedy switch hitters with lots of walks and range; for pitchers, keep the walks as low as possible without letting HR get out of control.

Last year I didn't use any deadball pitchers in round 1, but I have three of them in this theme alone. (Though I don't have any pitcher before 1910 in any theme.) There just weren't enough modern pitchers whose best year played well at 80 million.

The other big thing I learned last year is that I had been typically taking way too few PA, especially at low cap leagues. So I ended up having pitchers hit for themselves because I didn't have fresh bodies on the bench. I started making sure my PHs had enough PA to be available more, and it made a huge difference. Until recently I would have gone with 5200 PA in an 80M cap league, and cursed myself during the season every time a pitcher hit for himself in a close and late situation. It took nearly a decade, but I got around to fixing this.

90 M - Modern Pitchers get lots of Ks

Hitters: 5691 PA, .319/.414/.448
Pitchers: 1349 IP, 0.96 WHIP, 142 HR

I didn't even map out the deadball pitchers for this one. I think as things stand in WIS, really modern pitchers (i.e., 2010s) are the best value for several reasons.

1. They weren't really subject to dynamic pricing, which messed up the good pitchers at all other years.
2. They get lots of Ks, and those matter a lot more in WIS.
3. They have really low WHIP relative to their $/IP.
4. They make a huge difference to the fielding, especially relative to the really early pitchers.
5. They do give up lots of HR. But the conventional wisdom is that its not worth paying for HR. So this cost isn't so great.

The hitters aren't quite my usual list - I normally have more like C fielding than D. And on the left side of the infield I normally use B or better fielders, so this could be a challenge. But otherwise this was pretty close to a normal team for me.

I perhaps cut it a little fine on IP, but I think I'm getting better at managing fatigue. Here are the three things I really learned last year that made a huge difference.

1. If you use typical modern relievers (i.e., around 70 IP/162 with around 1.0 IP/G), you've gotta be brutal with the max pitch count. I think the right settings for these guys is target 10, max 15.
2. But that means you've gotta get fancy to get them all into the game. I started setting the auto-rest for these guys to 85 or 90 so they will start in back-to-back games from time to time. I didn't see much fall off in performance on the back end of these back-to-backs. (Unlike when they went above 15 pitches/game; then they turned into position players pitching.)
3. When you get into trouble, the simplest solution is to build a containment line. Find a fatigue setting that's several points below where 2/3 of your pitchers are at. Set everyone's auto-rest to that. Then if you are routinely getting through games with no rested pitchers being used, raise the auto-rest setting 1 point at a time. If you drafted just a few too few IP, you should be able to start with the containment line at 92, then raise it back to 99 over a couple of weeks.

Anyway, I suspect I might be running that here a bit; this feels like 1375 would have been better than 1350. But you have to take some risks.

110 M - One More Year

Hitters: 5945 PA, .312/.406/.455
Pitchers: 1393 IP, 0.89 WHIP, 134 HR

110 M - Round 2

Hitters: 5849 PA, .309/.406/.482
Pitchers: 1400 IP, 0.87 WHIP, 0.77 HR/9

I didn't even try to find to find a team with anything other than +/- 1. Maybe there is a better team out there, but this was a lot of work.

I mostly ended up with fairly normal players. The big thing was to look both for players with consecutive good seasons, and for players with one good season and one inexpensive season next to each other.

I didn't really build R1 and R2 separately. I gave myself a cap of somewhat under $220 million for the two teams and found 50 player-seasons, then worked out a way to split them into two teams. Then when it worked out that I had a bit of spare money on each team, I tinkered with the bullpen to use up the surplus. The result was two pretty similar teams, with just a bit more pop on the R2 team.

120 M - Pedro ate all the mangoes

Hitters: 5608 PA, .290/.413/.430
Pitchers: 1396 IP, 0.94 WHIP, 82 HR

I don't remember exactly how I chose the five albies. Furcal was easy; he's someone I use in relatively normal teams. (In fact I use him in the 140M theme this year.) And Kershaw I use all the time at caps not much bigger than this. But I don't remember the others.

After that it was basically a standard 80M team to fill out the roster. I ended up using lots of platoons here for reasons, which is odd since they are all switch hitters.

The big decision is whether to use Pedro/Kershaw as starters or relievers. I'm starting out with Pedro as starter and Kershaw as reliever, but could change that as we go along.

140 M - Some Brave Yankees Wear Red Sox

Hitters: 5812 PA, .330/.434/.545
Pitchers: 1399 IP, 0.86 WHIP, 62 HR

Taking Atlanta for Maddux and Chipper was easy, and there are enough relievers to get close to 40 million. I ended up adding Furcal in part to get over the line, and in part because my other two teams don't have great SS options.

I would have taken the Red Sox over all the group 1 teams. Pedro, Sale, Kimbrel, Speaker and Williams are all great at this cap, and they have a bunch of relievers and PH that work great. (Though I mostly ended up with a Yankee bullpen.)

Then I went through all of the group 1 teams. I don't normally like using Yankees, but they fit the gaps in my team fairly well - especially C and 1B. And Mantle always plays well on any team. But I had to scramble a bit replacing better Red Sox relievers with worse Yankee relievers to get to 40 million.

Variable - The 178th Baseball Platoon

Hitters: 5867 PA, .356/.440/.561
Pitchers: 1457 IP, 0.78 WHIP, 52 HR

So funny story. I misread the rules here and forgot there was a DH. And I only realised once a bunch of other people had teams in the league I'm commish for, and it was way too late to change. (Especially since I'd had access to their teams at this point.)

I was kind of upset at myself for this. Then I realised that real life NL teams are going to be in the same boat this year; having to put together a DH position out of players who weren't drafted for this. So if they can do it in real life, I can do it in a video game. I might occasionally use a shortstop with A/A fielding as DH, which is a little bit of a waste, but worse things have happened. (And I'm looking forward to seeing how the good NL teams manage this issue in the real world, and laughing at how the Mets manage it.)

And if I don't have enough IP - DH leagues use a lot more IP than non-DH leagues - well, I've written out how to avoid a fatigue death spiral.

As for putting the team together, I just treated this like a new kind of dynamic pricing. That is, I treated this as a fixed salary league, with a salary cap of $180M, but with some players costing $5M more than usual and others costing $2M less. Unsurprisingly, I ended up with a lot of players in the 450-500 PA range.

The other funny thing was when I started working on other teams but didn't reset the salaries I was working from. For a while I had a lot of teams with all the hitters in the 450-500 PA range. Happily I saw *that* error before I submitted the teams.

----

I don't have any predictions like other people do. Every team I ever build I think, "This should win 95 games, and hopefully a Division Series." Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. But I don't have any ability to tell in advance which is which.
6/7/2020 1:57 PM
Posted by chargingryno on 6/7/2020 9:39:00 AM (view original):
Posted by besterateam on 6/7/2020 4:57:00 AM (view original):
Wow brianjw took Pedro. I never even thought of taking him...
I’m interested in their thought process to taking Pedro. I knew I wanted Maddux because I have a prejudice against deadballers, my head goes crazy seeing all the errors committed with them on the mound. But it was never a debate between Pedro and Maddux for me.
I went back to my notes, and they start with how to get from Pedro/Kershaw/Koji to a full pitching roster. So that's no help. But here's what I think I had in mind.

Pedro is really really good.

My guess is that over the 217 IP he pitches, he's about 15 runs better than Maddux. Now you've gotta figure out how much the extra 19 IP Maddux gives you offsets those 15 runs.

Maddux probably has an ERA that's 1-1.5 runs better than the other pitchers you'd use in this game. So over those 19 IP, he's maybe 2-3 runs better than replacement. That's not nothing, but not that significant.

Except - if you take Pedro you have to pay for those 'replacement' IP, and that's probably going to cost around $500,000. (Assume we're paying about $30K/IP for the other pitchers here.) And around this salary cap, every $100,000 is worth about 1 run. So maybe that's another 5 runs cost to taking Pedro.

So as a pitcher, I think Pedro comes out about 7-8 runs better than Maddux.

OK, but what about hitting? Well, that makes it close, and I'm worried I never really take hitting into account well enough. Going by performance history (which is OK for current purposes, because after the albies this is close to an open league), Maddux is worth 100 points more in OBP and SLG. How much is that worth over 80-100 PA? I don't know, but it probably goes close to wiping out the 7-8 run advantage. (But note that if you use Pedro as a reliever, the downside of his lousy hitting gets smaller, because he doesn't hit as much.)

So it's really really close. Three things tip the balance for me.

1) I hope to make the playoffs, and Pedro/Kershaw is a killer combination in a short series.
2) Like in every sport, it's good to have the rule When in doubt, take the best player.
3) Watching 2000 Pedro was my favorite baseball experience, and while you can't win this game on sentiment, you can use it to split close calls.
6/7/2020 2:29 PM
Nice write up BJW. Always fascinating to read your insights/strategies. Also agree that watching peak Pedro in action was one of the best baseball experiences ever.
6/7/2020 3:36 PM
yeah he's the only pitcher I've ever seen where I was rooting for the offense to hurry up and make three outs so I could watch more Pedro
6/7/2020 5:55 PM
After reading some of these write-ups, I am less confident in my teams that I was before... But I felt the exact same way last WISC and I did OK.

It's interesting reading about the standard OL strategy, bc I do not play in OLs and it is foreign to me...and it certainly doesn't fit the way I build my teams for the most part.

$80M Corova Razorbacks

I like naming my teams after my local area.... And I got chased by a wild hog in Corova once as a teenager, so....

I have A armed Don Slaught and A+ armed Shawn Wooten, plus 2 other guys that will get ABs at C.
My highest paid player is 1976 Randy Jones. That puts me in San Diego stadium.. which is nice... I like sunshine and blue skies.
He, Doc Ayers, and Cliff Melton make up my 3 man rotation with Bill Burns and Rasty Wright coming in and eating a lot of bullpen innings. Pete Ladd is my 50 inning 'stud'
David Segui is probably my best offensive player... Which does not make me excited.
322 .368 .446 .814 5537
1354 IP 1.02 WHIP 40 HR allowed

$90M Avalon Pier Rats

If you've ever been to the Avalon Pier, you understand the name... And no, the pier does not have a rodent problem.

I think I like this team. I went with 2000+ pitchers led by '18 deGrom.. bc why not? deGrom is a very good value per $.
Aaron Nola fits into the #2 slot... Then, it's a bunch of junk besides 60 IP Glasnow... I'm still not settled on how I will configure the rotation (That's a re-occurring theme)

I'm cutting it close on catcher PAs... Hopefully both guys will finish at at least 98%. Hopefully I won't have too many passed balls.
A+ range at SS, 2B, and 3B
'89 Lyons leading off. '16 Cobb batting 3rd... Decent lineup
.329 .394 .460 .854 5350
1350IP .99 WHIP 1335K


$110M Nags Head Devil Hawks

The names of 3 of the towns on my Island are Nags Head, Kill Devil Hills, and Kitty Hawk

I went with +/- 1 because I wanted '08-'09 Three Finger Brown.. the IP/$/performance seemed about right.. So I just went with it.
I thought about Koufax.. Had him on both squads, but it just didn't work....
I feel like this round 1 team is very good. I think I have a really good shot at winning 90+ games and making the playoffs. My round 2 team will not be very good... It won't completely suck. but it won't be as good as round 1. The strategy was to build the best team I could in round 1, so I can make it to round 2... I didn't want to make too much of a compromise in round 1 and limit my chances to make round 2.... Although, I certainly did consider round 2 and built accordingly.
Willie Randolph somehow made this squad... He's cheap and walks a lot.. That's the best I can say about him.
Boggs, Randolph, Appling, Cochrane, Cobb, Speaker, Nap, E Valo are my starting 8 with Pablo Sandoval & Nyjer Morgan being my main 2 backups.Sandoval will start in round 2 sending Willie to the bench.
The overall pitching numbers look good, but I may struggle a bit to manage the staff due to lack of bullpen guys who can give me multiple innings. (Another re-occurring theme)
342 .407 .454 .861 5499
1390IP .89 WHIP 47 HR allowed

$120M Cobb County All-Stars

Yes, I was least happy about taking Cobb. I wanted Ruth, bc HRs may be very valuable in this theme... I've had the best record and/or scored the most runs in leagues multiple time while hitting the fewest HRs in the league, so I'm not someone who particularly cares about HRs, but I think having some in this league isn't a bad idea... I have very few in total.... Piersall is my best HR hitter...
Willie Randolph shows up again... Hey, at least he walks...
Not excited about this lineup at all.
Joss, Kershaw, Koji are my 3 mandated guys. I liked Koji more before I realized my stadium was illegal.. but.. whatever... He'll be fine...
Dave Davenport pitched well for me recently and his IP/$ is cheap, so I rolled with him again.
I have Tiny Bohnam & Cal Eldred to eat some innings
Harry Weaver at 42 IP.. Then 5 scrubs between 25-30 IP each
.326 .385 .438 .823 5469
1360IP .89 WHIP 35 HR allowed


$140 Twin City Red Robins

I guess that should be Twin 'Cities' Maybe I'll change it. Maybe I won't

Dodgers (Robins), Red Sox, Twins
The Dodgers were a pretty easy choice for me. I really like what the Indians and Cardinals offer, but I like Kershaw, Greinke, and Jansen more.. Throw in Zack Wheat, who is one of the best values in the system, and it's hard to pass up.. I also used Piazza's best season.. Wasn't really planning on it tbh.. but it happened...
Red Sox were another no brainer... I do like what the White Sox and A's offer- but its hard to pass on the Red Sox... I love Boggs. Speaker, Nomar, '18 Sale, '01 Pedro, Papelbon, A Miller, Braiser
I thought about using the Braves.. I attempted them 1st.. Didn't work... Walter Johnson, Ed Delahanty, Rod Carew, & Joe Nathan made the Twins/Senators a perfect fit.. Along with a dirt cheap, awful fielding 1B in Molitor....
.363 .430 .538 .968 5634
1425 IP .84 WHIP 56 HR allowed 1537K
This team should be very good.

Variable Cap... Not named yet $177M

I had a few strategies in mind before I started,, 1 did include Silver King... But.. Nah....
I went with 7 pitchers between 100-200 IP and 6 pitchers under 100 IP.. The numbers look fantastic.. Managing the staff will be a tough task. I'm really considering a 6 man rotation, but I'm just nor sure what I want to do yet. None of my 6 guys under 100IP can give me multiple innings... '88 Boggs, '21 Hornsby, and '17 Cobb bat 1-3 each with 700+ PAs. The rest of the lineup has under 500 PAs... And I only have 3 bench spots... Hornsby will play 2B and LF. '02 Nap. Clements/Jocko catching and playing some DH. '27 Al Simmons is probably a cookie in this theme, as are Dale Alexander and Denny Lyons (starting at DH for me). And the cookie combo of Hanley/Tulo at SS. Tito Francona plays LF/1B

Hopefully I have enough IP.. 1420 in a high cap DH league.... with no pitcher throwing more than 158 innings is going to be tough to manage.. but I couldn't pass up quality... If everything goes well, this team will be playoff bound
.373 .441 .579 1.020 6006
1420IP .78 WHIP 47 HR allowed 1519K



6/7/2020 7:35 PM (edited)
Pedro's innings scared me off in this theme. I knew whatever supplementary pitchers I got would not be as good as my stud SP, so Joss's 120+ extra innings will in theory be much better than whoever would've been responsible for that 120 if I took Pedro.
6/7/2020 8:53 PM
I love reading all the write ups. So many people who see things in such different ways. Can't wait to see how things play out
6/7/2020 9:53 PM
$80m - Station to Station
Busch Stadium (II)

Took a few years hiatus from WIS, was waitlisted for the WIS Championship, and built this team first while I was waitlisted so was just getting my feet wet. I never play open leagues so I do much worse the more open the player pool is. I try to give myself a theme to narrow down the list some.

For this one, I went with a pitcher's park (always safer) and liked Busch. Then tried to find a player and Pujols was way too expensive and his HRs would be killed so went with Adam Wainwright. With hits and especially HRs suppressed, went to work finding players with a ton of walks, and had to fit below Wainwright's salary! For pitchers, I lookd for low-walk guys with high HR as hopefully the park will help there.

Looking back now after a few months back in WIS, I drafted way too many innings and overall just hate this team.

Prediction: 70 wins if we're lucky


$90m - 21st Century = TTO > ROE
PNC Park

Another team I half-built while waitlisted and then forgot what I was going for. Finally figured it out: I went with 2000s pitchers hoping the strikeouts (and walks and HRs) would limit the damage in the field--thus the TTO (three true outcomes) > ROE (reached on error) team name. I'm sure instead my pitchers will be crushed by low-strikeout, high-contact deadball hitters like I went with.

In addition to that, I looked for high-range fielders closer to the D+ end of the spectrum, especially in the IF. Hoping my deadball hitters will put the ball in play and let the opposing team make some errors. But also assume many other teams went with this strategy and will do it much better than I.

Still drafted too many innings probably, though the errors might hurt that so maybe I'm okay.

Prediction: 75 wins


$110m - Name TBD (+/- 2 years)
Angel Stadium

For no good reason, decided on Angel Stadium and started with Mike Trout, who I've never played with before. Also, for no good reason, I decided to do a 2-year gap. Mainly, again, I'm just trying to give my team building some direction since I don't do well with too much freedom. Two years seemed to help with that.

I know lots of people had trouble with this theme but luckily this is where my one skill (database programming) comes in handy. Makes it really easy to find the guys you want/need to fit! I did this theme in one night and I think had $40k leftover combined. That could be considered a #humblebrag except is it bragging if you don't even make it to .500 in the league? I think not.

Opposite Trout, my only righty starter, I grabbed my favorite player growing up, Will Clark, as my only lefty. From there, I grabbed all switch hitters. Again, no good reason, just happened that way at first and then I went with it. Most of my players are similar-quality and salary in their 2 years but I did get a few good mix-and-matches. One was Doc Farrell (who's 1927 is one of my favorite low-PA ones and comes with a $201k partner) and Bob Lillis (who has a nice 81-PA season and a $270k partner) for my SS platooon-mate/mop-up infielder. Also got some nice combos out of my 1B/3B/OF/PH backups with Glenallen Hill, Nyjer Morgan, and Russell Branyan. Branyan especially was nice as he had one year when he could backup 3B when Caminiti is lower on PA and another where he was more 1B and could spell Clark.

Pitching-wise, when in doubt, go with some Dodgers! Got Kershaw, Hershiser, Kevin Brown, and Jansen. Andrew Miller and Steve Howe are my lefties in the pen with Mo Rivera and Doug Jones helping out Kenley.

I'm very proud to end up with two teams so close to the cap. I chose the team with the better Will Clark to start, which is some great analysis.

Prediction: 80 wins


$120m - There's No Lajoie in Mudville
Dodger Stadium

SP - Pedro
Long - Kershaw
RP - Kimbrel
Hitter - Lajoie
Fielder - Robinson

I initially went looking for a ballpark and really wanted a HR-suppressing one but really the only good one is SBC Park but to get that you have to take Bonds! So looked at the other good pitching parks and finally settled on Dodger Stadium which meant Kershaw. As a Dodger fan, that's fine with me!

Well, let's talk Pedro since I guess that was a very unpopular choice. As I mentioned earler in this forum, he was the lowest-inflation, lowest-OAV, highest-HR/9, which was the best fit for Dodger Stadium. Never looked at Joss but that's because I don't know what I'm doing.

Kershaw also was the lowest inflation option and came with the ballpark so easy choice. Glad to see others thought so too!

At reliever, I was between Kimbrel and Uehara but went with Kimbrel for the lower OAV, which as you'll see I was prioritizing in Dodger Stadium.

For my hitters, I looked and the big HR guys but was too scared and so finally debated between Lajoie and Cobb. Mostly went with Lajoie since I could play him in the IF and figured I could find decent OFers easier.

At fielder, was looking at Brooks and Furcal, once I went with Lajoie I figured better to play him at SS so that gave me Brooks.

The rest of my hitters were filled out with guys who DON'T hit doubles or triples, DO hit a lot of singles, and may or may not have HRs. I ended up with Ichiro (can play CF) and Keeler to sit atop my lineup sandwiched around right-hitting Lajoie. My two main power guys are high-average hitters as well in Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza. Filled out with Don Mueller and Johnny Evers as cheap guys, plus some platoon help on the bench.

My rotation was filled out with HIGH ERA guys, since those would be the best values with their XBH knocked down. Then looked for low-OAV out of that group. A bad Koufax season and two guys I've never heard of round out the rotation with Pedro. Some super-high walk but low-OAV pitchers fill out the bullpen in between Long-man Kershaw and closer Kimbrel.

We only have 258 doubles + triples with 74 coming from Lajoie. I do have 150 HRs and 1350 singles. Sounds like a perfect recipe to lose a lot of games to Josses.

Prediction: 77 wins


$140m - Lefty Studs from Cards + Phils + Braves
Robison Field

Like I said, I like making my own theme to help my drafting. I think I went (way) overboard with this one. I started with Robison Field, which is +2 for RF HR but -1 for LF. Then I went looking for the best lefty HR hitters I could find. Maybe a bit TOO restrictive here, yikes.

Anyway, had to start with the Cards for the park so grabbed Musial and Johnny Mize. 221-PA catcher Johnny Schulte has some pop as well and was a nice backup. I grabbed the Phillies to bring in Cy Williams and Chuck Klein. Finally, I figured I needed some pitching so I took the Braves, who also had Eddie Matthews and a nice Chipper Jones season at shortstop.

Turns out I couldn't get up to $140m, lol. Usually we're all stuck trimming salary at the end but I was piling it on in a shopping spree like I was Harry and Lloyd after opening the briefcase. Grabbed Hornsby for 2B, squeezed in the best Carlton season to go along with other stud lefty pitchers (again, hoping this means righty opponents who can't take advantage of the short porch in RF) Spahn and Brecheen plus a Maddux. Finally, I had so much money I just took a Mike Schmidt to be my backup SS/3B/2B and pinch-hitter.

I predict we lead the league in home runs by Ls and also just Ls.

Prediction: 68 wins
7.0.3
6/7/2020 10:23 PM
$180m - Participation Trophies
Memorial Coliseum

This became a WAY more interesting and difficult puzzle than I thought initially. I started writing this and just couldn't stop so apologies for the lack of brevity. There are so many intriguing factors that come into play and interweave with each other...it's really a fun puzzle:

THOUGHTS ON THE THEME
OVERALL ROSTER
- limit of roster spots: at some point, you can't stack up enough lower-PA/IP players with just 25 spots

HITTERS
- asymmetrical distribution of quality: this one seems more obvious in hindsight but the best players tend to play more, meaning the true best-of-the-best almost always have 500+ PA. this is obviously NOT true for pitchers, with the advent of relievers. this meant that even if you COULD stack up enough <500 PA hitters to get enough quantity, you would be unable to get enough quality. ok, so you think you should grab at least a couple of the elite hitters, but wait...
- inflation on the premier hitters: with whatever weird dynamic pricing that was implemented during my WIS hiatus, many of the elites come with a large amount of inflation--essentially dead money. that needs to be added on top of the -$5m hit you take, so some guys are now -8 or -10 effectively on your cap.
- limit on effective PA for a single hitter: again, unlike pitching (it's really cool how different the puzzles were for hitting and pitching, yet still intertwined with each other), you can't really load up on PA for a single roster spot. the best you can do is have a player who plays every inning at ONE spot, with some added benefit of them hitting higher in the order and soaking up some PA that way. but you still have 8 other spots to fill, so you can't just take that -5 hit once and knock out more than 1 spot.
- lack of players near upper thresholds: this one was really interesting and tied to point #1 above. i could have avoided some more "-5" spots but there simply aren't enough quality players near the 200 and 500-PA thresholds. let's just say, for example, you wanted 6500 PA for your team--if there were enough players you could get 13 of them with 500 PA and be done. But there's really only maybe 4 or 5 even at the 450+ threshold, and once you start dipping down into the 300-400 PA range, you now need more roster spots to make up for it. this is even more pronounced at the sub-200 PA level, where there's basically nobody in the 150-200 range good enough. i would like to note here that there were a few players who really irked me by being JUST above the threshold, with say between 201 and 250 PA that would have REALLY fit nicely.

so to recap: you want to load up on sub-500 PA and especially sub-200 PA players to boost your salary. but if you do that, you can't get enough quantity OR quality. so you start looking at 500+ PA guys, but you are limited to knocking out just 1 spot with them AND they often come with an additional drag on your salary cap in the form of inflation. eventually, you start trying to fill in with the best low-PA players, but you find the players closer to the 200/500 PA thresholds stop being good enough while the better-quality players lower down the PA ladder stop giving you enough quantity so then you try to add another big hitter but that lowers your cap by $5m more and now your salary cap is too low...it's a vicious cycle!

PITCHERS
- asymmetrical distribution of quality: pitchers are less of an issue here than hitters, but the really interesting part is that the asymmetry goes in the OPPOSITE direction. the best pitchers on a per-IP basis are the lower-IP ones.
- ability to load up on IP: unlike hitters, you CAN pack more quantity into a single roster spot for pitchers and thus take fewer -$5m hits. however, the limit on this is mostly the point above--pack too many IPs into one of these spots and now you have too many "not good enough" innings. basically the best pitchers overall are in the $50k-60k per IP range (excluding the inflation guys) while your best big-IP pitching options (say, 350+ IP) are mostly in the $40k-50k per IP range.
- inflation bites again: not as big of an issue but does hurt some of the better pitching options. for instance, of the best quality pitchers above 350 IP, the top 5 are all over $1.5m of inflation (and 3 of the 5 are $5m+!!!). You have to go down to the 12th-best big-inning pitcher to get one with less than a half-million in inflation.
- lack of players near upper thresholds: this hurt pitchers as well, though not as much. the biggest issue is the stud relievers who usually have around 70-80 IP. stacking up 75 IP at a time doesn't go quite as fast as 100. this lost me a couple roster spots as well.

Anyway, I think somebody else mentioned this earlier, I think the best way to treat this theme is just as a $180m cap but adjust player's salary for 3 things:

1) the +2 or -5 million adjustments for PA/IP
2) inflation (for dynamic pricing)
3) value relative to actual salary--this is obviously what we're mostly after building leagues and the one I'm the worst at identifying

The last thing I want to mention about this theme is that it becomes a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT puzzle at a lower cap. Why? First, the asymmetry goes away some--you'll have way more options all up and down the PA-spectrum. Second, you'll have way more options at the top end of each PA/IP bucket. I think this is the biggest change. You can now realistically find 3-for-2s with 3 guys at 450-500 PA to fill 2 positions. And third, inflation becomes much less of an issue.

I'm not sure how much of this was intentional but ozamatil is at the least, a genius, and at the most, an evil genius. Bravo sir.

MY ACTUAL TEAM BUILDING
I built this team once early but had some time and to me this was by far my favorite theme so I took it back to the draft center and rebuilt it. My first team came in at like $171m but I got this one to $176m which I think is about the realistic max. I'd guess most teams above this would actually be below this mark if you factored in their inflation.

STEP 1: Fill up on <100 IP relievers
I figured this was the best value by a large margin. I was hoping to get 8-10 of these guys but that proved too difficult for reasons I'll get to.

STEP 2: Look for <200 PA hitters
Uh, there aren't any! Ted Williams at 117 PA is the only player with 100-200 PA an $/PA above $17k. There are a few sub-100 PA hitters but that's just too few PA.

STEP 2b: Okay, look for <500 PA hitters
I was hoping to get a bunch of 3-for-2 platoons--you can theoretically get about 1500 PA out of 3 players which is plenty for 2 positions. Turns out, there's nowhere near enough players near 500 PA with the quality you need (as I mentioned above), so I just picked out the best guys I could here. There are a few easy ones I expect to be on nearly everybody's team:

1) 2B Nap Lajoie (454 PA, $14,895 $/pa)
2) OF Ted Williams (439 PA, $15,829 $/pa) - only thought here was if you should take his 117 PA season but quickly realized this was the superior option as there's just not a lot of good-enough 400-500 guys
3) OF Al Simmons (482 PA, $14,496 $/pa)

That's it. That's the entire list of players with 400-500 PA and over $12.5k/PA (well, excluding catchers, who are weird on the $/pa scale). I dropped the PA limit a bit an ended up with one more slam dunk:

4) SS Troy Tulowitzki (375 PA, $15,421 $/pa)

Okay, it's now abundantly clear that I can't live solely in this realm. I looked at a bunch of players somewhere between 200-PA with super-high quality (like Manny Ramirez with 229 PA @ $18k/pa) and closer to 500-PA but with lower quality (like Denny Lyons with 499 PA @ $11.7 or Reggie Smith with 495 PA @ $11.2), but first I knew now that I needed...

STEP 3: Find 2 500+ PA studs
I knew I probably needed at least two full-time players both to maximize my value/salary and to reach the PAs I needed withou burning 20 roster spots.

Oh wow lots of great quality here! Oh wait...here's the problem I mentioned above: inflation. Nearly every player above $17k/pa is costing you at least $1m in inflation if not closer to $10m! Eliminating guys over $2m inflation left me with my choice of Bonds, Ruth, Hornsby, and Ted Williams. I already had my Teddy Ballgame, so he's out. And while you can't knock out OVER 1 lineup position, I didn't want to go with a guy who would need to be spelled so Bonds was out as he only had 616 PA. I ultimately went with 1924 Ruth (726 PA) and 1921 Hornsby (714 PA) as the best combination of value and PA. '21 Hornsby isn't quite as good as some other options but he can play passable defense at every position except catcher so he's my everyday utilityman, which is kinda weird but should work. He'll mostly play 2B and 3B but I should have another 100-200 where he can spell guys at 1B, OF, or just play DH.

STEP 4: Find big-inning SPs
Back to pitching, I originally had 3 SPs with ~300 IP each but this time I figured I could get away with just 2 even bigger IP pitchers. I know some people went with Silver King but that's just not a beast I wanted to mess with as I ease my way back into WIS.

As I touched on above, there's tons of inflation to deal with above the 350-IP mark. I was trying to stay close to $40k/IP for value and get at least 900 innings. I ended up with 1908 Ed Walsh (495 IP) and 1888 Tim Keefe (538 IP). I didn't necessarily need all those innings but those were the best-quality innings I could find at that stratosphere that didn't come with a ton of inflation, less than $2m combined from the pair. They also have good HR9# numbers which is helpful since I went with a HR hitters park (Memorial Coliseum).

STEP 5: Choose my sub-500 PA hitters
Back to the hitters. So I've got 6 guys locked in (Ruth, Hornsby, Lajoie, Williams, Simmons, and Tulo), now I need to start making choices.

- First up, catcher, where I liked Bill Dickey (500 PA, $11.6k) as a lefty over Javy Lopez's 495 PA season. That allowed me to take 2011 Mike Napoli (432 PA, $14.2k) who will be Dickey's platoon-mate but also has the defense and the bat to play part of my 1B hodgepodge. Two down.
- Next up, let's fill out the infield. With Hornsby on board I have plenty of flexibility. I already have about 1500 PA between Hornsby, Lajoie and Tulo and I need to get to about, say 2100 give or take. Can't get one guy to do that, so I was relieved to not have to take Denny Lyons or David Wright who I didn't love the quality. I ended up wtih 358-PA Matt Williams and 336-PA Hanley Ramirez. I wanted a lefty or switch-hitter but there just aren't any options, so I'm all right-handed in the IF. Both Williams and Ramirez have the bats to play DH with whatever PA are left over as well.
- So with Catcher, 2B, 3B, and SS out of the way, just have the big hitting positions left: OF, 1B, DH. On board already are Ruth, Simmons, and Williams, plus some PA from Napoli and Hornsby if needed. I need probably about 2 full-time guys equivalent. First things first, I need a CF, so I tab 1949 Dimaggio with 347-PA. I could pass with Simmons in CF but I was able to take Randy Winn's 247-PA A+ range partial and he's a switch-hitter so that's nice. Down to 1B/DH mostly now so I just go with the best hitters I can find: 2000 McGwire (321 PA) and 2008 Manny Ramirez (229 PA).

STEP 6: Finalize the relievers
My offense is mostly done and I've got my two-headed rotation. I had a bunch of reliever seasons picked out but now had to narrow it down. I was trying to get guys close to 100 IP but there's just not many. Somehow I didn't end up with Mariano Rivera on my roster at all, almost took his 108 IP season but that just seemed like a waste. I was also avoiding inflation here like the plague.

Wound up with 6 relievers under 100 IP, most right around 70 IP and in the $3.3m to $4.4m range. Four righties led by 2016 Jansen, with 2006 Joe Nathan, 2017 Kimbrel, and 2018 Trienen (the most IP of the group at 80). My two lefties are 2016 Zach Britton and 2014 Aroldis Chapman (54 IP are th fewest IP). I decided to splurge on the hitters park so I loaded up on innings a bit more and rounded out my staff with my only 100-200 IP pitcher in 2014 Kershaw (198 IP). He'll be long relief and provide another left-handed arm, but can start in big games.

STEP 7: Fill out with sub-200 PA hitters
After I stocked up on pitchers I came back to finalize the hitters. Again, the pickings are just so slim. I took Bob Hazle, the best 150-200 PA hitter there is. My final pick is my favorite player from childhood, Will Clark. He's not quite the quality hitter I want but he's left-handed, plays a decent 1B, and has 197 PA. Plus, the salary fits.

My final "lineup":

Catcher: Bill Dickey + Mike Napoli
1st Base: Mark McGwire + Will Clark + Mike Napoli
2nd/3rd Base: Rogers Hornsby + Nap Lajoie + Matt Williams
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki + Hanley Ramirez
Left Field: Al Simmons + Ted Williams
Center Field: Joe Dimaggio + Randy Winn + a little Al Simmons
Right Field: Babe Ruth
DH: Manny Ramirez + Bob Hazle + Ted Williams + some Hornsby and McGwire

My catcher, LF, CF, DH, and partially 1B have decent L/R platoons. My 2B/3B/SS are all right-handed and Ruth will play full-time obviously.

My final rotation:

Starters: Tim Keefe + Ed Walsh
Long: Clayton Kershaw
Bullpen: Kenley Jansen + Zach Britton + Joe Nathan + Craig Kimbrel + Blake Treinen + Aroldis Chapman

At first I was bummed I couldn't fit more relievers in to bump up salary but it turned out I couldn't get up to that salary anyway. Once I realized that, I went big on the 2 starters which allowed me to cut down on my relievers and then ultimately use those extra roster spots to load up on sub-500 PA hitters. I end up with just 9 pitchers but 16 position players all of whom have 164+ PA and will play.

FINAL TALLY
4 "-$5m" players: 2 hitters (Ruth, Hornsby) and 2 pitchers (Keefe, Walsh)
8 "+$2m" players: 2 hitters (Hazle, Clark) and 6 relievers
13 Goldilocks-zone: 12 hitters and 1 pitcher (Kershaw)

That gives me $180m - $20m + $16m = $176m.

This was my favorite team to build and despite the high cap, the one I feel the best about.

Prediction: 85 wins
7.0.3
7.0.3
6/7/2020 10:44 PM (edited)
Here goes nothing...

Last year, I wrote up my strategy right after building my teams, because I knew I would forget why I did what I did. Apparently, I didn't think that would be an issue this time. Boy, was I wrong. I actually had to look at the "Round 1 Themes" thread to figure out what each theme was. So, I apologize for the less-than detailed write-up.

$80M - Frank, Carl & 23 No Names
Ballpark: Comiskey Park I
I don't play in open leagues and rarely play in theme leagues under $100M. I remember taking the salary spreadsheet and modifying it so only the most expensive version of each player remained. Then for pitching, I remember looking at players that fell into a specific $/IP range. I decided to take two 375+ IP horses, preferably who could hit. 1918 Carl Mays crushed it for me in a different league that had just ended, so he was an easy choice. I didn't want to play in Fenway Park, so I needed to grab a pitcher who costs more than $12.994 million and played in a pitcher's park. Although he can't hit like Mays, I welcomed Frank Smith to the team and we will be playing in Comiskey Park I. I needed about 200 innings for my third SP and this guy has done well for me in the few low cap leagues I've played in. Chien-Ming Wang. The rest of the pitchers all have 28-53 innings with whips below 1.10. For hitting, the only strategy was take as many switch hitters as possible, focusing on OBP. But I have no power and the regular with the highest batting avg is Otto Schomberg at .308. All five bench guys will be used.

Hitting: 5455 PA,.293, .395, .408, no speed, below average defense, $38.7 million
Pitching: 1370 IP, 1.07 whip, 0.23 hr/9, $41.3 million

Projection: After reading some of the other write-ups, I think this team will struggle. My stats seem worse than most. I probably drafted too many innings, and my .230 OAV is going to be a problem. Hoping to maybe win 82-84 games.

$90M - Pitchers I've Seen
Ballpark: Target Field
This was the easiest roster for me to build. In fact, when it was first announced by admin that the pitchers "era" determines the error rate, I experimented drafting teams with all modern pitchers and all 1800's hitters (you know those guys with 80-100 errors). These test teams always did well for me. The fielders would commit way fewer errors than in real life while my opponents errors were way up. So it was an easy choice to pick the modern pitchers. Not only that, but almost all of my batters are pre-1900. It's still only a 90M league, so I didn't go crazy. The 4-man rotation is Halladay, Carpenter, Keuchel and T.Hudson. I may have been too conservative by drafting 1402 innings. The hitting includes two platoons including a never used before 1918 Babe Ruth (476 PA of .300, .410, .555). The other platoon is a 3-man catching platoon. How many errors do you think these guys will accumulate: Anson (1b), T.Daly (2b), D.Lyons (3b), H.Collins (ss), Gore (of), Cravath (of). I bet way less than their real life total. I did draft good range though (A or A+ at most positions).

Hitting: 5585 PA,.307, .399, .464, $46.5 million
Pitching: 1402 IP, 1.05 whip, 0.62 hr/9, $43.4 million

Projection: I really think drafting deadballers is a mistake in this theme. Can't wait to compare the error rate of deadball pitching teams vs modern pitching teams. I think I can win 88-90 games.

110M - No Creativity +/- 1
Ballpark: Comiskey Park I
This team took the longest to build. Going back and forth between Team Centers was cumbersome, so I finally used the salary spreadsheet and grabbed all the players that had multiple good years and built my team that way. It was clear to me very early on that X=1 was the best and easiest choice. Maybe another year works but there were simply more choices with +/-1. The pitchers I am using include: Ed Walsh, Greg Maddux, Modecai Brown, Pedro Martinez, Joe Nathan, Billy Wager, Mariano Rivera, Rich Hill. The batters I am using include: Shang, Anson, Morgan, Boggs, O.Smith, B.Williams, Galan, G.Harper/Cullenbine.

Hitting: 5639 PA,.314, .408, .454, $54.5 million
Pitching: 1408 IP, 0.92 whip, 0.26 hr/9, $54.6 million

Projection: As I type in these players' names, this feels like a $110M cookie team. A lot of familiar names. I am hopeful we can win 88 games.

$120M - Koji is Too Expensive
Ballpark
- League Park I
I feel like the five players I selected will be the most popular choices from each group. Joss, Uehara, Kershaw, Cobb & Furcal. The lower $/IP made the pitchers easy selections, IMO. Don't want to overpay for HRs (even for Ruth). And Furcal seems like the best value in the fifth category. Other than that, it's basically trying to draft a roster for a $80M team. Most of my remaining pitchers have whips in the 1.05-1.15 range. The remaining hitters are my standard switch-hitter cookies with OBP between .390-.410.

Hitting: 5611 PA,.316, .408, .468, $61.6 million
Pitching: 1382 IP, 0.96 whip, 0.29 hr/9, $58.2 million

Projection: I found it interesting that brianjw selected Pedro. Spending that much on so few innings seems incorrect strategy, but now I am second-guessing myself. I know Pedro is light years better than Joss, but that's a lot of innings to make up. I am looking forward to seeing the average number of wins by player selection. As far as my team, 87-89 wins seems reasonable.

$140M - Cards - White Sox - Twins
Ballpark:
Comiskey Park I
I too started with the third group and like others, the Senators/Twins seemed like the obvious choice... Why make things more difficult than they need to be? Walter Johnson, Ed Delahanty, Johnny Niggeling and Joe Mauer lead the way. In Group 2, I went straight to the White Sox, with Ed Walsh and Doc White completing the starting staff. Jenks, Latman and Carlos are staples out of the pen. Luke Appling, Joe Jackson and Eddie Collins should do well at Comiskey. I went with the Cardinals in Group 1. Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial & Willie McGee make up the meat of this group along with relievers Pollet, Rincon and Grabowski.

Hitting: 5814 PA,.361, .438, .534, $77.2 million
Pitching: 1405 IP, 0.92 whip, 0.07 hr/9, $62.6 million

Projection: Apparently, I am in the minority as I didn't take Los Angeles, New York or Boston. I didn't really try other combinations. I selected this team and was happy with it. Maybe I should have looked at other options. Oh well, I hit my high water mark of 2nd overall last year. I am due for some regression. This team will probably be in the 81-83 win range.

178M - CLXXVIII
Ballpark:
Philadelphia Baseball Grounds
This was a fun build. Doing some math, I determined at the onset of the build that the it would be really hard to get above $180M. I figured two 400+ IP pitching studs + two full time batters is -$20M. But with five <200 PA guys, and five <100 IP pitchers, that gets you +$20M. I had a team built at 180, but I was a little light at PA, so I dropped one of my <200 PA batters for another <500 PA guy. Anyway, my four big guys are '24 Ruth, '08 Wagner, '15 Alexander & '10 Walsh.

Hitting: 6200 PA,.353, .458, .593, $85.3 million
Pitching: 1546 IP, 0.81 whip, 0.15 hr/9, $92.1 million

Projection: I am terrible at predicting my success or lack thereof at very high salary caps. All the teams are full of stars. It's going to be fun playing with some of these partial season studs like 49 DiMaggio, 27 A.Simmons, 55 T.Williams, etc. We'll say 88 wins.
6/8/2020 4:00 PM (edited)
Obviously there is more than one way to skin a cat, but the fact that ozo, skunk, brianjw and schwarze all felt using deadballers was a bad idea in the $90M theme gives me a bit of comfort.
6/7/2020 11:29 PM
I’m only concerned about going against a team full of 1890s hitters. Other than that, it’s nothing I haven’t done before.
6/7/2020 11:38 PM
I'm sure we'll see some deadball teams in the playoffs, but I'd bet we'll see a larger share of modern teams.
6/7/2020 11:59 PM
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