What is Exp. %. If my real win % is .657 and my exp win % is .720 does that mean I am a poor manager or does that mean that based on my run differential I should have a better win %.

both? ;)

it is in fact your expected winning percentage. most likely it means you've won some blowouts.... 1 win, but 19 runs towards your run differential.

where does one find Exp % ?

Quote: Originally Posted By amycox67 on 10/30/2009Click on your league lick then click on View Advanced Standings top side of standing

Remember to practice safe licking !

thank you Amy

Exp. % is the Pythagorean Win % for your team. It has nothing to do with how many games you can expect to win going forward (it tends to be a slightly better predictor than your actual winning %, but not greatly so after 50 or 60 games), and it's based on run ratios rather than differential.

Exp % = (runs scored)^2/[(run scored)^2+(runs allowed)^2]
= 1/[1+(runs allowed/runs scored)^2]

If you assume that baseball scores follow a Weibull distribution then this formula statistically predicts how much a team should win based on its runs scored and allowed. However, teams with bullpens that are significantly superior or inferior to their starting staffs may perform above or below their overall anticipated win % in close games, skewing their real win% from their Pythagorean win %. The fact that not all pitchers on a staff are equal does interfere with the formula, which assumes that runs scored and allowed are independent; in reality, the closeness of a game can impact which pitchers are used, and not all pitchers on a team are equal.

bump for people not wanting to read below the first thread

Is that the formula used? I thought the 2.0 power of Runs Scored was demonstrated to be too high. the more accurate formula was something like the 1.7 power.

I think Bill James is playing around with that now. But the formula WIS uses is the initial one he published, which uses squares.

Some people are also working on expanding the formula to account for luck in terms of runs scored and allowed based on how many hits and walks a team accrues and allows and where in the lineup offensive production occurs. This is referred to as secondary pythagorean win %. Just starting to work on a tertiary % which also factors in strength of schedule, but the real problem with that is that it builds on the secondary %. That means that each team's tertiary expected win % is dependent on each other team's tertiary expected win % and changes not just when another team wins or loses but hits or doesn't hit or gives up walks or doesn't, etc OR when any team the other team has played (including the first team) does anything.

1.82 is the exponent used.

In written form...

Ratio of Games Won = Ratio of Runs Scored ^1.82
Ratio of Runs Scored = Ratio of Games Won ^.55

Quick question: How often and how much can one's EXP % change over the course of one, two or three games? I know it will vary based on runs scored and all but would it "normally" be a significant amount or are we talking like .001 or .002 over the course of three games?