pitch allocation Topic

elbirdo
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without a lot of explanation:
using draft center stats
given Batters Faced per Inning Pitched (BFIP) = whip+3.00
given Base On Balls per Inning Pitched (BBIP) = BB9/9 or BB/IP
given Strike Outs per Inning Pitched (KIP) = K9/9 or K/IP
the number of pitches per inning that sim allocates for any pitcher can be found by
3.406*BFIP + 3.762*BBIP + 1.964*KIP
multiply by IP/162 to get the pitchers seasonal pitchcount allocation
ex. 03 Gagne
3.406*3.69 + 3.762*0.24 + 1.964*1.66 = 16.75 P/IP or 1390 P/Season
ex. '18 Northrop
3.406*3.73 + 3.762*0.08 + 1.964*0.10 = 13.78 P/IP or 730 P/Season
seems to be fairly accurate
includes 10% bonus that Sim gives pitchers over real life numbers
It should be noted that the calculations are NOT reflective of what the particluar pitcher may have pitched in real life. I know that sim assigns each pitcher has a predetermined seasonal pitch count. Earlier in the season or if you let a pitcher get overly fatigued, you'll get a mouseover message that says something like "Overused -- on pace for 3% more pitches than actual season." If you take his current pitchcount and extrapolate it to 162 games, you can figure out what sim thinks his seasonal pitch count is. Current ex. Gagne after 122 is 3% over with a pitch count of 1084. 162/122*1084 = 1440. 1440/1.03 = 1397 pitches per season. I believe my formula says 1390.
I assumed that sim must be using some sort of calculation based on the relative occurrence of three outcomes - 1. batter puts ball in play, 2. batter strikes out, 3 batter walks. So I took real reverse-engineered data for a bunch of pitchers based on the 'mouseover' stuff and did some curve fitting to come up with the three coefficients. The 10% is included because sim includes it in the mouseover message.
I gather Gagne real-life 110% number is closer to 1308, so I dont think sim uses real life pitch counts, but rather a calculation which I have attempted to duplicate.
5/4/2007 7:34 PM
ArlenWilliam
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Thanks much, EB.
5/4/2007 9:01 PM
JohnGPF
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6/27/2007 11:52 PM
mr_automatic
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Quote: Originally Posted By elbirdo on 5/04/2007
ex. 03 Gagne
3.406*3.69 + 3.762*0.24 + 1.964*1.66 = 16.75 P/IP or 1390 P/Season
I wish I had seen this post before I posted in the other one.

Let's take out the extra 10% for now (1390 / 1.1 = 1264 Pitches)

He faced 306 batters in 2003. That equals 4.13 P/PA. Even without adding the extra 10%, Gagne can now face 372 Batters (1264 / 3.4 P/PA). If we add back the extra 10% he can now face 1390 / 3.4 = 409 batters). That is a full 34% more that RL.

The formula was created based on pitchers that averaged 3.75 P/PA. When the SIM uses 3.40 P/PA in the game it gives the 1999-2006 pitchers an extra 10% to 20% pitch count on top of the 10% everyone gets.

Just on a side note...Gagne threw 1189 RL Pithces to 306 batters for a 3.89 P/PA.
6/28/2007 6:47 AM
mr_automatic
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Quote: Originally Posted By elbirdo on 5/04/2007
multiply by 162 to get the pitchers seasonal pitchcount allocation
Why are you multiplying by 162. If you are figuring the pitchers P/INN, why wouldn't you multiply P/INN by the actual number of the innings they pitched?
6/28/2007 7:51 AM
JohnGPF
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...he meant "IP/162"...
6/28/2007 8:25 AM
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JohnGPF
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6/28/2007 8:57 AM
mr_automatic
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Quote: Originally Posted By JohnGPF on 6/28/2007

...i'm hoping elbirdo sees this and comments to see if his formula includes the 10% bonus or not...
He states that it does in the last line of his post.
6/28/2007 9:04 AM
JohnGPF
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...in SIM league play pitchers don't perform at their real life rates...they'll walk more batters, give up more hits, and strikeout fewer...that means they take hits to their pitches bank account with respect to walks and hits (the 2 biggest pitches components by a large shot) and get back a little for strikeouts...
...this puts higher OAV, lower walk pitchers in general at a disadvantage, a disadvantage that would be increased if P/PA were forced to a specific level that benefitted lower OAV, higher walk pitchers...
...in a league that just finished for me, the 2 best pitchers were 1999 martinez and 1904 brown...in real life they had almost exactly the same BFP/IP---3.90 to 3.92; in the SIM pedro had a 3.96 BFP/IP and 3 finger a 4.04...martinez pitched 262 innings (22% over), brown 266 (18% over)...if they had both pitched 3.75 P/PA, martinez would have pitched 251 innings (18% over) and brown would have thrown 230 (2% over)...
...and brown's a good case...for older historical teams full of pitchers much worse than brown, the hit is that much worse...
6/28/2007 9:12 AM
JohnGPF
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Quote: Originally Posted By mr_automatic on 6/28/2007
Quote: Originally Posted By JohnGPF on 6/28/2007

...i'm hoping elbirdo sees this and comments to see if his formula includes the 10% bonus or not...
He states that it does in the last line of his post.
...i just want to be sure i understand him since the post in general is not real specific...
6/28/2007 9:13 AM
JohnGPF
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"and get back a little for strikeouts..."
...in fact, thinking about, this is also a benefit to higher K pitchers since by not strikeing out as many as they did in real life, they have the pitches allocated for this over...
6/28/2007 9:45 AM
mr_automatic
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Quote: Originally Posted By JohnGPF on 6/28/2007
...in a league that just finished for me, the 2 best pitchers were 1999 martinez and 1904 brown...in real life they had almost exactly the same BFP/IP---3.90 to 3.92; in the SIM pedro had a 3.96 BFP/IP and 3 finger a 4.04...martinez pitched 262 innings (22% over), brown 266 (18% over)...if they had both pitched 3.75 P/PA, martinez would have pitched 251 innings (18% over) and brown would have thrown 230 (2% over)...
...and brown's a good case...for older historical teams full of pitchers much worse than brown, the hit is that much worse...
Did they both finish the season at 100%? I am betting they did, eventhough neither should have.

By formula, lets see how many pitches Pedro should have been able to throw.

3.406 * 3.92 + 3.762 * .17 + 1.964*1.47 = 16.88 P/INN

He pitched 213.33 RL Innings so that equals = 3601 SIM Pitch Alotment

How many pitches did Pedro throw in his 262 SIM IPs? My guess is he is going to be close to his alotment of 3601, even though he pitched 22% more innings. That is why I am guessing that his fatigue was at 100% when he should not have been. Fatigue is based on Pitches and not IPs.

My contention is that with the formula that is being used, 3.75 P/PA is already being factored into thier Pitch Alotment.
6/28/2007 9:51 AM
just4me
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This is excellent on its own. Thanks for sharing elbirdo!

Now, just imagine how this could be utilized on top of the fatigue strategy to further take advantage of the current fatigue model. Just another reason to look at implementing Yabahos' fatigue model or one like it.
7/22/2007 9:34 PM
blackmink18
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Thanks Yabahos for mentioning this. Somehow I never saw this post.
Thanks elbirdo for figuring this out
9/15/2007 12:52 PM
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