That the simulator is a complete crap shoot. Ignore the numbers, ignore the salaries, ignore the park attributes. You'll have just as good of chance closing your eyes and rolling the dice. Seriously.

I know, I know. Wah, wah, and wah.

Why do I say this? A 1907 George Winter, with an ERA of 2.07 and ERA+ of 123 gives up 10 earned runs in just 6 innings, in a pitchers park. Open League.

Ridiculous. Again, you'll have just as much luck closing your eyes and selecting players completely at random. No, I don't expect to win every game, and I know the obvious answers, but I don't expect players to depart so severely from their real life performances. I mean, what's the point of pouring over the stats then if the randomness of the simulator offsets any possibility of expected performance?

And don't sit there and tell me all your pitchers behave as expected. Because they don't, and you know they don't. So don't bother.

You got to remember that George Winter was facing Norman Fudgenucker and his ilk and not Babe ruth/Willie Mcgee and the like. A 2.07 ERA  ERA + in 1907 is not very good.

I don't think the simulator takes into account WHO the pitcher faced, but what the final result was. How could you do it any other way? And I'm sorry but that ERA/ERA+ is pretty decent. Especially when you account for the salary of just over $8 Million. Besides, if you insist on it, Winter faced Cobb, Crawford and Lajoie on a regular basis.

Posted by Zamdrist on 8/28/2010 5:55:00 PM (view original):
I don't think the simulator takes into account WHO the pitcher faced, but what the final result was. How could you do it any other way? And I'm sorry but that ERA/ERA+ is pretty decent. Especially when you account for the salary of just over $8 Million. Besides, if you insist on it, Winter faced Cobb, Crawford and Lajoie on a regular basis.

he didn't face all three of those guys EVERY time he pitched....and not all three in the same lineup. In the sim it is like he is facing all three of those guys, in the same lineup, every single time he pitches. In real life he would have been shelled had he faced lineups with 5-6 studs EVERY time he started.

Big Baby

Aside from the fact that 1 game is a pretty small sample size, consider this.  If you loaded all the rosters from 1907 (Winter's season) in the draft center, you'd see an average team salary of around 65M.  In OL's, once you add in AAA, the teams usually check in at just over 90M. 

If you want "realistic" numbers, put Winter in a one-season OL, or a 60M theme.

Only time you see realistic numbers in the SIM is in progressives... and one-season progressives at that...

and even then not always... I've had Pedro Guerrero hit 54 HR for me in a single-season progressive...

Posted by Zamdrist on 8/28/2010 1:55:00 PM (view original):
That the simulator is a complete crap shoot. Ignore the numbers, ignore the salaries, ignore the park attributes. You'll have just as good of chance closing your eyes and rolling the dice. Seriously.

I know, I know. Wah, wah, and wah.

Why do I say this? A 1907 George Winter, with an ERA of 2.07 and ERA+ of 123 gives up 10 earned runs in just 6 innings, in a pitchers park. Open League.

Ridiculous. Again, you'll have just as much luck closing your eyes and selecting players completely at random. No, I don't expect to win every game, and I know the obvious answers, but I don't expect players to depart so severely from their real life performances. I mean, what's the point of pouring over the stats then if the randomness of the simulator offsets any possibility of expected performance?

And don't sit there and tell me all your pitchers behave as expected. Because they don't, and you know they don't. So don't bother.

Two thoughts:
(1) Looking at his performance history, he doesn't seem to be that great.  Though, I know its a small sample.
(2) With that kind of attitude how did you win two championships?

Posted by zubinsum on 8/29/2010 12:39:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Zamdrist on 8/28/2010 1:55:00 PM (view original):
That the simulator is a complete crap shoot. Ignore the numbers, ignore the salaries, ignore the park attributes. You'll have just as good of chance closing your eyes and rolling the dice. Seriously.

I know, I know. Wah, wah, and wah.

Why do I say this? A 1907 George Winter, with an ERA of 2.07 and ERA+ of 123 gives up 10 earned runs in just 6 innings, in a pitchers park. Open League.

Ridiculous. Again, you'll have just as much luck closing your eyes and selecting players completely at random. No, I don't expect to win every game, and I know the obvious answers, but I don't expect players to depart so severely from their real life performances. I mean, what's the point of pouring over the stats then if the randomness of the simulator offsets any possibility of expected performance?

And don't sit there and tell me all your pitchers behave as expected. Because they don't, and you know they don't. So don't bother.

Two thoughts:
(1) Looking at his performance history, he doesn't seem to be that great.  Though, I know its a small sample.
(2) With that kind of attitude how did you win two championships?

I know, right. One was a $60M theme league, the other an open league.  I guess that's what is so frustrating. I THOUGHT I had learned something, only for the sim to knock me down and show me I've learned nothing.

No, perhaps he wasn't the best choice I could have made. But this bad? It's surprising. In his two outings he's given up 6 and 10 earned runs.

Small sample size

Doubt there's been a single pitcher in the history of the game to go an entire reasonably long career without getting shelled a few times... it happens...

I don't know of any source for seeing Winter's actual game by game performance, but www.retrosheet.org shows the game by game scores for the 1907 Boston Americans, along with the starting pitcher.

In games that Winter started, some of the scores were:

L 8-7
L 9-8
L 6-3
L 7-3
T 6-6
L 9-1

No idea what Winter's contribution was to those runs allowed, but given that he pitched 21 CG in 27 starts, and 256 2/3 IP in 35 games (7.3 IP/game), I think it's reasonable to assume he gave up the majority of those runs in those games. 

How did anyone who thinks ERA is a meaningful stat to draft by in this game win championships?

One thing I've learned is that complaining about poor performances, especially single-game performances, is unlikely to garner you any of the following things:

Sympathy, agreement, kind words of encouragement, low blood pressure, or a smoking-hot 20-year-old girl who wants to do filthy things to you.

Add a mark to the bad luck column and get 'em next time.

The usual counter-points...
(1) - Small sample size
(2) - Sim is slanted 60/40 towards hitting.
(3) - 1907 is a pretty pirching friendly year, not too good for normalization.
(4) - The higher the cap, the larger the skew towards hitting... You know that $60m is the cap to look for close to real life stats...

You had bad luck with a slightly-above average SP for an $80m open league.  It will happen.