Posted by wylie715 on 6/29/2016 3:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/29/2016 1:57:00 PM (view original):
Pretty sure the topic hasn't changed. We're talking about the value of outs compared to the value of productive outs.

How should we measure that value?

a productive out is an out that produces an outcome that could be helpful to the team (a ground out to the right side with a man on 1st or 2nd base). A non-productive out is a strike out at any time. How else can you measure that?

BL doesn't understand the concept of relative value. He's trying to assign every event a finite value in terms of how many runs it's worth. And he apparently doesn't understand he is the only one doing that. He's convinced "we" are all discussing things in his terms.

Posted by wylie715 on 6/29/2016 3:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/29/2016 1:57:00 PM (view original):
Pretty sure the topic hasn't changed. We're talking about the value of outs compared to the value of productive outs.

How should we measure that value?

a productive out is an out that produces an outcome that could be helpful to the team (a ground out to the right side with a man on 1st or 2nd base). A non-productive out is a strike out at any time. How else can you measure that?

That's the question. There's obviously a difference in value there. How do we know if the difference is large or small?

Posted by Jtpsops on 6/29/2016 3:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by wylie715 on 6/29/2016 3:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/29/2016 1:57:00 PM (view original):
Pretty sure the topic hasn't changed. We're talking about the value of outs compared to the value of productive outs.

How should we measure that value?

a productive out is an out that produces an outcome that could be helpful to the team (a ground out to the right side with a man on 1st or 2nd base). A non-productive out is a strike out at any time. How else can you measure that?

BL doesn't understand the concept of relative value. He's trying to assign every event a finite value in terms of how many runs it's worth. And he apparently doesn't understand he is the only one doing that. He's convinced "we" are all discussing things in his terms.

I tend to use practical application of facts and common sense.

A sac fly that scores the 2nd run in a 2-1 victory is a damn important productive out.
A sac fly that scores the 9th run in a 13-1 victory is just a stat-padder.

Therefore, in my mind, that 1st sac fly was infinitely more valuable.

I'm quite sure BL doesn't see that. Or this thread would have ended days ago.

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/29/2016 4:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 6/29/2016 3:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by wylie715 on 6/29/2016 3:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/29/2016 1:57:00 PM (view original):
Pretty sure the topic hasn't changed. We're talking about the value of outs compared to the value of productive outs.

How should we measure that value?

a productive out is an out that produces an outcome that could be helpful to the team (a ground out to the right side with a man on 1st or 2nd base). A non-productive out is a strike out at any time. How else can you measure that?

BL doesn't understand the concept of relative value. He's trying to assign every event a finite value in terms of how many runs it's worth. And he apparently doesn't understand he is the only one doing that. He's convinced "we" are all discussing things in his terms.

I tend to use practical application of facts and common sense.

A sac fly that scores the 2nd run in a 2-1 victory is a damn important productive out.
A sac fly that scores the 9th run in a 13-1 victory is just a stat-padder.

Therefore, in my mind, that 1st sac fly was infinitely more valuable.

I'm quite sure BL doesn't see that. Or this thread would have ended days ago.

Thanks for the easy answer to the question no one is asking.

Someone please put him out of our misery

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/29/2016 4:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 6/29/2016 3:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by wylie715 on 6/29/2016 3:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/29/2016 1:57:00 PM (view original):
Pretty sure the topic hasn't changed. We're talking about the value of outs compared to the value of productive outs.

How should we measure that value?

a productive out is an out that produces an outcome that could be helpful to the team (a ground out to the right side with a man on 1st or 2nd base). A non-productive out is a strike out at any time. How else can you measure that?

BL doesn't understand the concept of relative value. He's trying to assign every event a finite value in terms of how many runs it's worth. And he apparently doesn't understand he is the only one doing that. He's convinced "we" are all discussing things in his terms.

I tend to use practical application of facts and common sense.

A sac fly that scores the 2nd run in a 2-1 victory is a damn important productive out.
A sac fly that scores the 9th run in a 13-1 victory is just a stat-padder.

Therefore, in my mind, that 1st sac fly was infinitely more valuable.

I'm quite sure BL doesn't see that. Or this thread would have ended days ago.

On a broader level look at the 2012 Baltimore Orioles. They won 93 games and had an overall run differential of 7 runs over the entire season. They also had 30 sacrifice flys. They were 29-9 in 1 run games and 16-2 in extra innings. (Without looking game to game) I'm guessing many, if not most, of those SFs were fairly important.

If we look at the 2005 Cardinals, they won 100 games and had a season total 171 run differential. They also had 35 SF. I'm guessing those 35 SF might not have been as critical to their season as the '12 Orioles.

But I suppose you'd have to really dig in and see in what games all those sacrifice flies occurred.

Don't bother, SJ. BL won't acknowledge the argument at hand.

He says "we" are discussing the value of events as runs, when it's only him. And then he says "thanks for answering the question no one asked", despite the fact Mike's example is what everyone but BL has been arguing this entire thread.

He's either painfully stupid, or in an unhealthy level of denial about how wrong he is.

Posted by Jtpsops on 6/29/2016 5:05:00 PM (view original):
Don't bother, SJ. BL won't acknowledge the argument at hand.

He says "we" are discussing the value of events as runs, when it's only him. And then he says "thanks for answering the question no one asked", despite the fact Mike's example is what everyone but BL has been arguing this entire thread.

He's either painfully stupid, or in an unhealthy level of denial about how wrong he is.

Mikes stupid *** example is not what we are talking about.

Wait, do you think when someone says "high run scoring environment," they're talking about one specific blowout?

Also, if the value of an event isn't measured in runs, how is it measured?

Who said I was asking what BL thought? He can't have a normal discussion.

Posted by bad_luck on 6/29/2016 4:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by wylie715 on 6/29/2016 3:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/29/2016 1:57:00 PM (view original):
Pretty sure the topic hasn't changed. We're talking about the value of outs compared to the value of productive outs.

How should we measure that value?

a productive out is an out that produces an outcome that could be helpful to the team (a ground out to the right side with a man on 1st or 2nd base). A non-productive out is a strike out at any time. How else can you measure that?

That's the question. There's obviously a difference in value there. How do we know if the difference is large or small?

who cares? A productive out is more valuable than an unproductive out. How much more valuable depends on the team, and the situation. for a team that does not score many runs a productive out is more valuable than it is for a team that scores a lot of runs.

Posted by wylie715 on 6/29/2016 6:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/29/2016 4:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by wylie715 on 6/29/2016 3:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/29/2016 1:57:00 PM (view original):
Pretty sure the topic hasn't changed. We're talking about the value of outs compared to the value of productive outs.

How should we measure that value?

a productive out is an out that produces an outcome that could be helpful to the team (a ground out to the right side with a man on 1st or 2nd base). A non-productive out is a strike out at any time. How else can you measure that?

That's the question. There's obviously a difference in value there. How do we know if the difference is large or small?

who cares? A productive out is more valuable than an unproductive out. How much more valuable depends on the team, and the situation. for a team that does not score many runs a productive out is more valuable than it is for a team that scores a lot of runs.

If you don't care, that's fine. But if you don't know, it's impossible to determine if strikeouts (as opposed to other types of outs) matter at the full season or career level.

It's already been agreed upon by everybody (including you) that there is a correlation between strikeout rate and run scoring.

Why are you still trying to deny something that you agreed with?

Posted by tecwrg on 6/29/2016 6:45:00 PM (view original):
It's already been agreed upon by everybody (including you) that there is a correlation between strikeout rate and run scoring.

Why are you still trying to deny something that you agreed with?

Yep. Historically, the correlation is positive.

Posted by bad_luck on 6/29/2016 6:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by wylie715 on 6/29/2016 6:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/29/2016 4:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by wylie715 on 6/29/2016 3:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/29/2016 1:57:00 PM (view original):
Pretty sure the topic hasn't changed. We're talking about the value of outs compared to the value of productive outs.

How should we measure that value?

a productive out is an out that produces an outcome that could be helpful to the team (a ground out to the right side with a man on 1st or 2nd base). A non-productive out is a strike out at any time. How else can you measure that?

That's the question. There's obviously a difference in value there. How do we know if the difference is large or small?

who cares? A productive out is more valuable than an unproductive out. How much more valuable depends on the team, and the situation. for a team that does not score many runs a productive out is more valuable than it is for a team that scores a lot of runs.

If you don't care, that's fine. But if you don't know, it's impossible to determine if strikeouts (as opposed to other types of outs) matter at the full season or career level.

why do we need to know if the difference is large or small? You've already admitted there is a difference, so therefore an out is not an out.