Posted by Jtpsops on 6/27/2016 9:47:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 6/27/2016 12:18:00 AM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 6/26/2016 11:53:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 6/26/2016 11:32:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 6/15/2016 11:40:00 PM (view original):
For a hitter, an out is an out.
For a pitcher, how he gets outs matters.
Is that hard to understand?
This is where it started JTP. You don't get to define the parameters of the discussion when you show up a week in, no matter how badly you want to do so. It was initially about FIP, which is an aggregate stat. Not about individual events. A lot of very stupid/ignorant people wanted to redefine it in terms of individual events because that's the only way they have much of an argument.
When I showed up, BL was shouting his "AN OUT IS AN OUT" mantra from the roof tops and that is what reignited this current line of debate.
It's right there in the first line of the post you quoted. As we've established repeatedly, for hitters, an out is not an out. Outs in play have the potential to be far more productive than K's. And no, DPs do not occur often enough to cancel out the benefit of all the productive outs.
Yes they do, since the negative value of a double play is 5-10 times as bad as a "productive" out.
This is such bullshit. You will never convince me (or most people with half a brain) that a DP is ten times worse than an out that moves a runner over or brings a runner in. If you want to argue that it takes 2 productive outs to cancel out a DP, I may concede that, but 5-10 is garbage.
And once again, I'll point out that the most prolific DP hitter in history (Ripken - 350) grounded into one every 9-10 games. And that's the absolute worst. Which means hitters don't ground into DPs nearly as frequently as you and dahs seem to think they do.
And this is why we spent so much time on the value of individual events.
The value of a non-productive out (any out with bases empty, any third out, strikeouts, pop-outs, most shallow fly outs, etc) is about -0.30 runs.
The value of a productive out varies between -0.08 and -0.20 runs.
The value of a double play is around -1.00 runs.