Posted by burnsy483 on 5/27/2014 4:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 5/27/2014 2:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/27/2014 2:35:00 PM (view original):
There probably is. I don't have time or desire to look for it. I'll just go with logic, common sense, critical thinking skills, conventional baseball wisdom, etc.
Is there any evidence that teams score more runs when they strikeout more? Is there such a thing as a productive strikeout?
There probably is? I think you have plenty of time to look it up. It's easy. Go to any team stat list for a random year. ESPN's page is pretty easy to use. Sort by team runs scored. Then sort by Ks. Is there a correlation? I'm betting there isn't.
I'm also betting that there is a strong correlation between runs scored and OBP & SLG.
If you're going to be one of the best hitters in baseball, you need to be a slugger, and to do that, you need to swing hard. When you swing hard, you're more likely to miss the ball entirely than if you didn't swing as hard and your sole purpose at the plate was to make contact. If you look at the best hitters in the game in recent memory, you'll see some pretty high strikeout totals. If you look at the 600 PA and < 75 K guys, you see a lot of slap hitters. So if you're a high strikeout batter, are you better off making more contact, but risk looking more like one of those slap hitters? Probably not.
That said, it makes sense to change your approach a little but when you're in certain situations, because putting the ball in play is very valuable in some circumstances.
Sure, there are obviously situations where certain types of contact are preferred and, to the extent that they can remain effective offensively, players should adjust their approach accordingly.
And the evidence, at least for 2014, is that players do change their approach in those situations. I linked the chart that shows K rate going from 20% to 15% when there's a runner on third and one out.
Tec's original complaint was that players, in general, strike out too much. Which is dumb. Overall, even considering the slim benefit of some productive outs, how players make outs really doesn't matter.