Posted by tecwrg on 5/23/2014 11:49:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/23/2014 11:31:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/23/2014 11:15:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/23/2014 11:10:00 AM (view original):
I mean, the answer is yes. This has been discussed among us in a different forum, but if you take any 1 stat and try to get any hard conclusion about anything, there's a great chance you're going to be incorrect.
That said, BABIP doesn't have home runs for a reason. If you want home runs in the stat, then you don't understand the purpose of the stat in the first place. It's like looking at doubles and saying "why isn't home runs included?"
Dude comes to bat 8 times over two games. He hits three home runs. He strikes out twice. He grounds out three times.
Batting average is .375. BABIP is .000.
BABIP says, wow, dude has been very unlucky. He should be batting much higher than .375.
Sure. That makes a lot of sense. What a useful statistic.
Fun with small samples! And yes, he has been unlucky. His batting average should be higher than .375. The average player, in 3 balls in play, is most likely to get 1 hit. So his batting average should probably be .500. I'm glad you get the stat now.
I'm 53 years old and haven't played organized baseball since I was 12 years old
The Houston Astros inexplicably sign me to be their DH. They give me 500 AB's. I strike out 375 times, and tap out weakly to the pitcher 125 times.
BABIP says I was prett damn unlucky. I should have had around 38 base hits.
That sound about right?
Miguel Cabrera, as I stated before, won't be considered lucky if he has a .350 BABIP this year, because it's in line with his career BABIP. He hits the ball really hard, so a higher percentage of his balls in play are hits than yours would be, for example. If Brendan Ryan has a BABIP of .280 this year, he isn't unlucky, because that's in line with what he does for his career. He doesn't hit the ball very hard most of the time.
So, no, when you have a .000 BABIP, you won't be unlucky, because that would be in line with what your career BABIP should be.