I decided to take on a project I didn't have the time to do! Those are the best
I decided to preview the top half of the ASC, which is the second best D3 conference according to RPI. All statements are final.
First Team All Conference (stats in bold lead conference)
:
PG – William Johnson – Schreiner |
19.9 PPG - 4.6 APG - 1.1 SPG - 3.5 3PM/G | (.469/.438/.912)
A first team pre-season All-American who intends to wreak havoc on the conference. He counteracts below average athleticism with a high basketball IQ, elite work ethic, and ballhandling wizardry, and a long memory. He’s still upset that rokraider rescinded a scholarship and sent out a PSA to the other conference coaches he was only a career bench player.
SG: Paul McCartan – Austin |
17.5 PPG - 2.6 RPG - 2.1 APG - 1.7 SPG - 3.4 3PM | (.455/.395/.776)
At the most stocked position in the league, McCartan stands heads and shoulders above the rest. A player who most experts had pegged as sure to go D1 (a top 100 player in his position), he instead decided to spend 4 years terrorizing the D3 ranks. The next frontier for him is getting stronger inside. Sky is the limit.
SF: Jay Cox –
Concordia, Austin | 12.4 PPG - 4.4 RPG - 2.3 APG - 1.2 SPG - .7 BPG | (.493/.325/.614)
The driving force for a team almost guaranteed to finish above .500 for the season. That’s no small feat for a simmy run team in a top 3 conference in the country. The senior is a jack-of-all trades type who reminds us that good things can come from Galilee… erm, the D3 scouting pool.
PF: Todd McBride –
Sul Ross S | 9.4 PPG - 7.2 RPG (2.2 ORPG) - .9 SPG - .8 RPG | (.630/ -- /.618)
An essential piece of a surging team. While this award projection is in part a testament to the fact that PF is not this conference’s strength, McBride is an athletic rebounder with serious positional versatility. He can slide up as an undersized C or spot some minutes at SF. This all-in approach and unselfishness epitomizes coach rokraider’s team that’s making a push toward the elite.
C: Eric Combest –
Mary Hardin-Baylor | 12.6 PPG - 7.6 RPG (3.0 ORPG) -
2.1 BPG - .6 SPG | (.531/ -- /.568)
A seriously underrated player whose production outpaces all of the expectations placed on him. Coach bnys has a style—he’s going to throw big, physical lineups at you and dare you to blink first. Combest is the main reason this all works. A senior with some serious projectability and potential to still grow into his body. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his rating more accurately reflect his impact by the end of the year.
Conference POTY: William Johnson, PG –
Schreiner
Consider this: The two best players in the conference (by my account) both have another year of eligibility remaining. Oy vey. I’ll be a homer and pick William Johnson for this honor, but you can’t go wrong either way.
Defensive Player of the Year: Gary Belcher, SG –
Austin | 10.7 PPG - 3.6 RPG - 3.3 APG - 1.7 SPG | (.534/.419/.704)
Belcher is my pick over MHB's Combest, mainly because I'm jealous of those steal numbers. A menace on the wing that offenses often choose to avoid. I’m glad he’s a senior. Good riddance!
Freshman of the Year: Paul Bourke –
Austin |
6.0 PPG - 3.0 APG - 1.3 SPG - 18.7 MPG | (.476/.310/.750)
This is a hard call between two of coach jerry’s guys. In weighing the battle between Paul Bourke and Richard Ackley, I have to give the one getting more minutes the edge. Starting every game as a freshman with stellar stamina, Bourke is already a confident ball handler and stellar distributor. It’s hard not to think that he’s a future stud while Ackley will always just be useful. I predict this is just one award of many to come for the PG from Texas.
Coach of the Year: rokraider –
Sul Ross St.
I think jerry will win this award because the algorithm values great seasons more than very good ones. But the jump that rokraider has made this year from a 1
st round out from the NT to a top-tier team is the hardest to make in a rebuild. Sul Ross St has arrived.
Power Rankings (Projected Conference Record):
1. Austin (16-0)
Summary: Can you have too many shooting guards? Well, there’s definitely no such thing as too much shooting. Coach jerry’s offensive scheme forces you to change your scheme to defend his guards and uses his smashmouth style of defense to overwhelm you with a swarm of guards more athletic than yours. With a non-conference schedule that proved their mettle, this team is legit. Coach jerry hasn’t lost a conference game in the regular season over the last three seasons. With arguably their best team over that span, this reporter isn’t betting on that streak being broken now.
Floor/Ceiling: Final Four/Round of 32
Prediction: Conference Champion. CT Tournament Champion. NT 2 seed. Final Four. I say this is the year coach jerry breaks through some of those postseason blues and shows that the division that Austin is more than just a pretty record.
2. Schreiner (13-3).
Summary: The analytics enjoy this team far more than this hometown fan. The analytics aren’t completely wrong. This is a dynamic team capable of offensive explosions. But e record doesn’t capture how stressful it can be to watch this team play. The roster fit is less than ideal, with ill-fitting pieces overlapping with each other. A shallow frontcourt, stamina issues, and freshmen being force-fed minutes limit the regular season ceiling of this team. With some ugly losses to the upper echelon of the league, this is a team just as likely to make a run as it is to crash and burn. I suspect some of the more pronounced roster holes have coach swatts looking ahead to next year.
Floor/Ceiling: NT 1
st round/Sweet 16
Preidction: NT 6 seed. Round of 32
3. Sul Ross St (14-2)
Summary: You might be wondering how Sul Ross St. could have a higher predicted finish in the standings than Schreiner but a lower power ranking. Simple… I cheated. This is more of a 2b situation to Schreiner’s 2a than a clear pronouncement of inferiority. But with all the analytics and playoff projections favoring Schreiner, I need to see coach rokraider make it happen in the land of Tark before a premature coronation over the hometown team. But they show up every game to play and have three losses that are as close to “good” losses as you will see. They might have a slightly lower floor than Schreiner but they’re far more likely to reach their ceiling. Sul Ross St. has arrived.
Floor/Ceiling: NT 1
st round/Sweet 16
Prediction: Conference Champion. NT 6 seed. Sweet 16.
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (11-5)
Summary: A big, physical team with a callous disregard for positional labels.Coach bnys has decided to take a bunch of players he recruited at centers and start them as various places in his lineup. SF? He’s a center. PF? A center. C? You guessed it. PG? Okay, at least there's a shooting guard manning the point. I’ve taken notes from his team building strategy and think this is the kind of team built to overwhelm an untested team that enters the tourney with a sterling record and a low SOS. The kind of obvious sleeper that makes you realize that you weren't paying attention.
Floor/Ceiling: PI Final Four/Round of 32
Prediction: NT 14 seed. Round of 32. Let’s put my money where my mouth is and root for the upset.
5. LeTourneau (9-7)
Summary: A team knocking on the door of a tourney berth, it’s hard to tell if we’re watching a team make the leap or if they’re still one season away from breaking through. Shooting guards and power forwards make up 11 of the roster spots. Don’t tell coach kubb that he has a type. The one classic center that he has is a solid yeoman who adds some interior power to the roster. My hunch: this is one year too early to call it the end of a rebuild. With 70% of their points are combing back next year, coach kubb can take any success this year as the cherry on top of a sundae.
Floor/Ceiling: PI Final Four/NT 1
st round./
Prediction: PI Final Four.
6. Howard Payne (10-6). A 5a/5b situation. I think LeTourneau's better but that Howard Payne will be rightfully rewarded for a stellar non-conference. I think they sneak into the NT as a 16 seed and become fodder for a 1 seed. I might prefer to see them put up a fight in the PI.
7. McMurry (7-9). Just feisty enough to make sure you gameplan and pose a threat to a team at the edge of the bubble. Could steal a game or two in the PI.
8. Hardin-Simmons (6-10). Delightfully overrated by RPI. An easy win that boosts our SOS.
Comment below with any thoughts!