From the "Misery Loves Company File:
It looks like I picked just the right time to check out the posts in this thread. My 8 teams are a combined 3-13 in today's first 2 rounds of games. The above posts by Juice, schwarze, toysboys and footballmm11 have improved my spirits immeasurably. Thanks, guys!

Similar to toysboys, I have 8 teams in this round of the tournament. 2 of them are above .500, 2 of them are exactly .500 and the other 4 are all below .500. My Phillies team is the worst performer so far with a 7-13 record despite winning by a 19-1 score on Opening Day.

Prior to this evening's session, I had 5 teams over .500, 7 teams exactly .500 and 4 teams below. So if these teams keep winning(losing) at a similar pace, I could have anywhere between 5 and 12 teams "qualify". Don't really care if it's 12 or 8. I would be majorly bummed if it was 5.

In all of juice's tournaments, I've never had an undefeated round (in rounds with a minimum of 10 teams). I almost hit it this morning. I had a 15-1 session, easily my best ever. Only loss was 2-1. My 16 teams allowed a total of 34 runs, with one opponent scoring 6 runs, one opponent scoring 5 runs and two scoring 3 runs, while the other twelve opponents scoring 0-2 runs.

And yes - I am well aware that a 3-13 round is coming because I dared to post this. That being said, I still only have eight teams over .500 (three teams at 14-14 and three more at 13-15).

And there it is... a nice 4-12 session to ruin the morning, including 0-6 in 1-run games. My cumulative 1-run game record is now 62-79.

Thru 31 games, and calculating the top 6 teams from each franchise, here are the 15 teams with an Expected Winning% over .500 that currently would not qualify for round 2. Somehow, I have 5 teams in this list.
.

Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	Pick#	Draft#	Record	Exp Win%	1-Run
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	-------------------	----------	----------	------------	------------	---------
74	Giants 1905, 1921, 1916, 1933, 1957	2	schwarze	1	11	16-15	0.641	4-7
126	West Side Story	3	Taxman2008	5	2	14-17	0.552	2-3
103	Senators 1928, 2020, 1917, 1976, 1974	8	schwarze	12	3	15-16	0.548	4-6
104	Bigwig's Reds (09/19/74/87/13)	7	njbigwig	1	12	15-16	0.547	2-5
105	Phillies 1908, 1929, 1952, 2014, 1911	5	schwarze	8	5	15-16	0.542	5-5
127	BAL 1991-1973-1925-1993-1978	6	footballmm11	11	2	14-17	0.542	2-10
80	02-94-21-23-46 Blue GuardIndians	4	ronthegenius	1	2	16-15	0.539	4-3
65	Gigantes gigantes	2	Jtpsops	2	4	17-14	0.538	7-5
106	Tigers' Cobb x 2	7	nocomm999	4	2	15-16	0.536	2-4
146	Pirates 1920, 1908, 2014, 1969, 1926	6	schwarze	12	2	13-18	0.530	2-5
128	L6: Pirates	6	3dayrotation	4	6	14-17	0.525	4-5
109	06,24,65,96,02 Indians	4	kstober	6	8	15-16	0.518	1-4
129	Black Sox Plus 4	3	SteveIzzy	5	11	14-17	0.515	4-3
110	Braves 1917, 2003, 2007, 2021, 1945	8	schwarze	12	2	15-16	0.513	5-3
111	Dodgers 1951,1964, 1969, 1980, 2018	1	DarthDurron	2	1	15-16	0.500	3-6

And here is the opposite table, the 13 teams with a sub-500 expected winning% that currently would qualify for round 2
.

Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	Pick#	Draft#	Record	Exp Win%	1-Run
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	-------------------	----------	----------	------------	------------	---------
99	Cardinals 26, 52’, 66’,68’, 98	4	glowguy	8	6	16-15	0.422	4-2
73	Puzzle Athletics	2	calhoop	6	9	17-14	0.425	9-1
98	5 Phillies 1972 1981 1990 2002 2022	5	BeAllEndAll	7	2	16-15	0.432	6-1
72	Indians take 5 Naps	4	barracuda3	4	7	17-14	0.433	3-1
96	Oakland Athletics	2	darny10	5	10	16-15	0.438	6-3
47	19967 1976 1992 2008 2023 Phillies	5	richiebrown6	2	3	18-13	0.467	10-2
93	Senatorial Twins 27/33/69/86/10	8	Dufferman	5	11	16-15	0.475	3-3
46	Cubs 1906, 10, 58, 2002, 05	3	DarthDurron	2	12	18-13	0.487	7-2
16	L3: Cubs	3	3dayrotation	11	1	20-11	0.490	8-3
45	Cincinnati Reds 15-18-62-75-15	7	emanes10	4	11	18-13	0.490	8-2
91	Phillies' McQuillan x 2	5	nocomm999	1	8	16-15	0.493	6-2
30	Cardinals 1927, 34, 42, 89, 2001	4	DarthDurron	7	12	19-12	0.494	6-1
90	LAD 2021-2016-1954-2017-2001	1	footballmm11	3	10	16-15	0.494	5-3

The first group is 51-74 in 1-run games and 172-168 in 2+ run games.
The second group is 81-26 in 1-run games and 142-154 in 2+ run games.

It's insane how much luck plays a role in this game.

35-game update...

I have 9 teams over .500 (all are 19-16 or better, none at 18-17)
I have 6 teams at either 17-18 or 16-19
My last team (Cubs) sucks balls.

Here's a fun fact... Each of the six teams at 16-19 or 17-18 are over .500 in Expected Winnings%. And the average Exp Win% of those 6 teams is .532. Not shocking that their combined 1-run game record is 24-34.

There are four people with 15-16 teams...

If 3dayrotation went 1-15 in his next sixteen 1-run games...
If footballmm11 went 0-17 in his next seventeen 1-run games...
If thejuice6 went 4-22 in his next twenty-six 1-run games...

The four of us would have the same exact record in 1-run games (83-94).

Here are the five unluckiest teams in 1-run games

pedrocerrano is 25-40 with his 8 teams (1.9 games below .500 per team0
jrig21 is 18-29 with his 4 teams (2.8 games below .500 per team)
mllama54 is 23-42 with his 6 teams (3.2 games below .500 per team)
pmars2001 is 10-21 with his 3 teams (3.7 games below .500 per team)
oldtimer59 is 6-16 with his 2 teams (5.0 games below .500 per team)

Thanks for the interesting stats. My Braves team is not very good, but their 1-7 record in one run games (compared to 15-17 in 2+ run games) has put them in a very precarious position after 40 games.

Speaking of luck, here are 4 hitters from my various teams who are currently experiencing bad "luck":
Reggie Smith, Dodgers, .396 OPS vs. .900 in real life (-.504)
Mike Lieberthal, Phillies, .447 OPS vs. .914 (-.467)
Andres Galarraga, Braves .566 OPS vs. .991 (-.425)
Joey Votto, Reds, .630 OPS vs. 1.032 (-.402)

I will probably do player analysis around the mid-point of the season.

The quarter-pole seems like a good time to look at my teams, who are all performing well so I hope it's OK to post something positive in this thread. They're all between 22-18 and 25-15, which means it's a long way until October still and anything could happen.

Senators/Twins: 25-15, .625, 1st place +3, Exp%: .558
So we're 3 wins above expected thanks to an 8-3 record in 1-run games. But we're also 1-4 in extra innings.
The good: Johan Santana 6-2, 2.20; Walter Johnson 7-2, 3.31; Muddy Ruel .330/.388/.435
The bad: Sam Rice .275/.310/.333
No one is crushing the ball, but a great top 2 starters can go a long way.

Reds, 24-16, .600, 1st place +1, Exp% .637
Nice to know we're actually underachieving, with a 7-8 record in 1-run games.
The good: Noodles Hahn 6-2, 2.86; Rob Dibble 1.44 in 25 IP; Pete Rose .345/.398/.497; Wally Post .297/.362/.506; Babe Herman .312/.386/.541
The bad: Eric Davis .216/.273/.314; Barry Larkin .253/.277/.297
So far we have the best OPS of any Reds team and the 3rd-best ERA. Feels like a good formula, so I'm expecting this team to stay in a good spot.

Pirates, 24-16, .600, 1st place +4, Exp% .626
We're 10-6 in 1-run games and still underachieving. Is that good?
The good: Babe Adams 9-0, 1.90; Goose Gossage 4-1, 0.80 in 33.2 IP; Bill Landrum 6 svs, 1.62; Bob Kipper 6 svs, 1.31
The bad: Wilbur Cooper 2-6, 6.43; Pie Traynor .244/.284/.300; Max Carey .243/.308/.325
The pitching is carrying this team, primarily a brilliant Adams and a bullpen trifecta that's bound to regress. Our hitting is just average and our speed is probably the only thing pushing a few more runs across than expected.

Dodgers 22-18, .550, 1st place +2, Exp% .510
Here we have our big overachievers. Not sure what to expect besides a dogfight to the finish.
The good: Clayton Kershaw 6-1, 2.32; Duke Snider .306/.398/.548; Tommy Davis .329/.362/.461; Maury Wills .318/.350/.390
The bad: Mookie Betts .216/.314/.284; Freddie Freeman .240/.317/.317; Sandy Koufax 2-6, 5.10; Evan Phillips 0-2, 10.29
Our hitting is way below league average, but we have the 2nd-best Dodgers ERA, 3rd overall in the league. Betts was so bad leading off I elevated Wills to the top though I'm not seeing that it's leading to any more production overall. The 2023 guys have been massively disappointing aside from closer Ryan Brasier (10 saves, 0.77 WHIP). Odalis Perez and Kershaw have outhomered Freeman. So there's ample room to improve.

Cubs 22-18, .550, 3rd place -2, Exp% .529
This team looks destined to be on the edge all season. Hopefully it's good enough to land in that top 6.
The good: Heinie Zimmerman .374/.396/.517; Hack Miller .346/.379/.449; Phil Douglas 5-3, 2.33
The bad: The whole bullpen, basically; Billy Williams .238/.313/.306; Johnny Evers .242/.322/.250
The offense rates pretty well in a low-offense league, but our pitching isn't good enough to match up with the prime Cubs aces of the Aughts. It would help if our quartet of 2022 relievers would actually provide some. Oh, and sorry Jigger Statz fans, but his .273/.304/.295 isn't cutting it.

Cardinals 22-18, .550, 1st place tie, Exp% .576
A 4-6 record in 1-run games is holding us back a bit, and we're tied with an overachieving juice team, so we might have a shot of opening up a lead here at some point.
The good: 2010 Adam Wainwright 5-2, 3.00; John Tudor 7-3, 3.35; George Watkins .391/.426/.626; Chick Hafey .341/.413/.572; Tom Herr .396/.460/.591
The bad: 2020 Adam Wainwright 1-5, 6.43; Willie McGee .286/.309/.379;
The offense has been strong, and the pitching has been good enough. A couple hitters are way overachieving, but a couple are lagging so maybe it will even out. All things considered, a good start here.

Amazing consistency, redcped!

Public shaming works!

My bad Wainwright threw 7 shutout innings, allowing 2 hits, in the pm game.
Koufax also allowed 2 hits in 6 innings
Phillips pitched 2 scoreless innings, too.