Posted by raggedclaws on 2/1/2024 1:03:00 PM (view original):
Posted by robusk on 2/1/2024 9:58:00 AM (view original):
Looks like best I can realistically hope for is a bridesmaid spot. That conference finals round was a disaster for me. Nice work tarheel and sukow, plus all the other winners.
Classic Rob, but that doesn't really scan. You've got a team in the finals and an 18 point buffer on second. Ben and I only have one team in the finals each; depending on how the game 7s this afternoon shake out Ben could get up to two and I could get up to three. But we could also both end on one, and even getting two through doesn't guarantee anything, especially if you win a chip. And it's not even like Ben and I are playing each other right, thus ensuring that at least one of us compiles enough championship equity. Other than Rob and I potentially playing in the W2 finals, this is all going to play out independently.
Gaming things out a little, I'm a moderate underdog in the W4 finals against jhsukow, but I'm at home for G7 in W1 where if I get past dh to the finals I'd be a small/medium favorite now that Ben's juggernaut has fallen, and I'm also at home for G7 in W2 where I'd likely be a light favorite over Rob in the finals if I advance past jethro. Meanwhile Ben has to be a heavy favorite in W3 and will have decent odds if he advances in W2 though game 7 on the road against jcred is going to be tough.
If I'm projecting titles it's something like me 0.95 (with easily the widest range of outcomes), Rob 0.45, and Ben 0.9. Which would put us on track for another neck and neck finish. Ben scans as the favorite to me, especially if he make two finals, but if I land 2+ to Ben's 1 it tilts to me/Rob with the W2 title looming as potentially pivotal.
So I have all three as firmly in the race - we'll see where we stand in an hour.
Was confused by this until I realized you meant W5 and not W2.
Quickly looking at it, I think it is:
Ben wins 2 titles = Ben wins
Rob wins 1 titles, Ben wins <= 1 title = Rob wins
Rob wins 0 titles, Ben wins 1 title = Ben wins
Rob wins 0 titles, Ben wins 0 titles, Hutch wins 1 title, Rob wins <= 2 games = Hutch wins
Rob wins 0 titles, Ben wins 0 titles, Hutch wuins 0 titles = Rob wins
Given that Ben has the superior team and homecourt advantage in both of his series I'd say he is the odds on favorite here. Just knowing what an edgerunner he is plus my propensity to blow series, I'd give him like +250.
2/1/2024 4:18 PM (edited)