Round 1

Selection	Pick	Owner	Pick v. ADP	% of Time Drafted
James, LeBron	1	tcdahn7	-0.80	100%
Curry, Stephen	2	jhsukow	-0.50	100%
Chamberlain, Wilt	3	sappy	1.30	100%
O'Neal, Shaquille	4	mikee1	-2.30	100%
Jordan, Michael	5	mptrey	0.30	100%
Paul, Chris	6	uptowngbv	-4.30	100%
Durant, Kevin	7	jcred5	-6.00	100%
Abdul-Jabbar, Kareem	8	dh555	1.20	100%
Howard, Dwight	9	benhoidal	1.00	100%
Davis, Anthony	10	tau1624	-29.00	100%
Malone, Karl	11	gerryred	1.90	100%
Robinson, David	12	cjok1051	-0.80	100%
Rodman, Dennis	13	tcdahn7	3.10	100%
Barkley, Charles	14	jhsukow	0.50	100%
Parish, Robert	15	isacqbs58	-69.06	100%
Jordan, DeAndre	16	tarheel1991	-6.00	100%
Olajuwon, Hakeem	17	NotoriousJ	-17.90	100%
Stockton, John	18	6theluckyone	0.80	100%
Malone, Moses	19	pharrop	9.80	100%
Johnson, Magic	20	jkaye24	2.30	100%
Duncan, Tim	21	copernicus	-0.90	100%
Antetokounmpo, Giannis	22	dBKC	0.00	50%
Wade, Dwyane	23	ysw128	0.70	100%
Bird, Larry	24	Midge	9.50	100%

Risers:
I am not going to use this section for people who were just inexplicably picked too high (I'll save that for "Explain Yourself"), but more so for people who rise somewhat reasonably.

Anthony Davis – His new season is a beast. I’d still slot him after a couple guys he was picked before but I might cover that in a big man rankings list.
Kevin Durant – Steady climber going a bit higher the last couple of seasons. Balanced scoring and great defense.
DeAndre Jordan – tarheel has laid out his reasons and DeAndre is elite in a couple of areas. I don’t like him this high though.

Fallers:
Dennis Rodman – Low for Rodman but I honestly would have stomach churn picking him anywhere in the top half of the first.
Moses Malone – Moses is good and this is too low for him. I constantly feel like he is selected too high though.
Larry Bird – Bird is very good and I actually tried to trade up for him at the last minute. This spot is a steal for him despite a couple quirks about his style I don’t love.

Player Tiers:
I tend to try and organize my draft board by position tiers. I might get into some position specific tiers later in the draft when it seems right. The beginning of the draft is a little more flexible though as I tend to try and see which position has top tier talent available to me, get those players and then start building out my later round draft strategy. At the beginning of the draft I am focused on the core stuff everyone should be targeting.

1. I need enough efficient usage. Ideally I want around 12 points a smidge over 100% usage% on the floor at all times (but I will stretch it a little under if I need to). I try to avoid overspending on this. Ash covers usage pretty well so I don’t need to go into too much detail on it. The point is getting guys who give you these points with a low TO% and a high eFG% is my number one goal in the beginning of the draft because these dudes will be hard to find later in the draft if they aren’t fatally flawed. If there is a different elite player, like a stud rebounder/defender or stuff assist/defense man who fell too far I might select them early in a draft but it has to be premium value.
2. I like to try and get at a minimum 400 3PM and usually more. Ideally I get enough paint scoring to offset my perimeter shooting to make it harder to defend my team. How I think about this in the first couple rounds is two-fold:
   1. If I go with someone like Malone, Bird, A. Davis, etc. who tend to be MID%, I automatically have to start building a concrete second and third round strategy for PER% and PNT% guys to offset how much usage I just put into MID%.
   2. If I pick someone like Giannis or Rodman or someone who takes almost no threes and is going to play on the wing for me, I am locked into some pretty specific needs in the next few rounds to make sure I get enough threes.
3. I need to make sure I am equipped to get enough assists. I will go lower on AST% than most owners so this isn’t as big of a concern for me personally. That is why it is third.
4. Enough defense to cover 2-3 high usage scorers across any position. If I get a low defense stud early, I have to start strategizing where the defense is coming from in the next few rounds.

So with that, my first round position agnostic tiering is something like this (not sorted within the tier because not everyone thinks like me and can defend any order… also I have covered specific orders in the past and may do so again).

• Tier 1
  • LeBron James
  • Wilt Chamberlain
  • Steph Curry
• Tier 1.5
  • Michael Jordan
• Tier 2
  • Shaquille O’Neal
  • Kareem Abdul-Jabaar
  • Dwight Howard
  • Chris Paul
  • Kevin Durant
  • Karl Malone
  • David Robinson
  • Charles Barkley
  • Anthony Davis
  • Moses Malone
• Tier 3
  • John Stockton
  • Dennis Rodman
  • Magic Johnson
  • Larry Bird
  • Giannis Antetokoumpo
  • Tim Duncan

Explain Yourself:

Isacqbs58 – Already via a sitemail I got the old “there is a method to my madness” reasoning. I am sure there is. It would be crazy if there wasn’t. But you picked Parish three round higher than you needed to. The method is flawed man.

Tcdahn7 – I already busted up the original trade enough. You just ignored the economy. I won’t harp on it anymore. The thing I want to focus on here is your thoughts about Rodman being the perfect pair for LeBron. This isn’t an open league boss. Their best positions unless you are playing to a sub-optimal strategy for this league is LeBron at a guard spot and Rodman at the three. So where are you getting three pointers from? You also are low on usage and will need another big man defender. You think you are covering all this without another pick until the fourth round? Yikes man.

NotoriousJ – Hakeem is one of the great big men of all time in the NBA. This is the ODL though. Hakeem’s best two shooting seasons have him as a below average defensive rebounder for the position with over 5 FP48. His other seasons have him slightly lower on the fouls and better on the boards, but with higher usage combined with lower shooting percentages. It is hard to be successful with him, especially as your first round pick.

Round 2

Gobert, Rudy	25	Midge	-16.20	100%
Kidd, Jason	26	ysw128	0.90	100%
Leonard, Kawhi	27	dBKC	-4.80	100%
Pippen, Scottie	28	copernicus	0.00	100%
Green, Draymond	29	jkaye24	-4.30	100%
Hardaway, Anfernee	30	pharrop	1.70	100%
Wallace, Ben	31	6theluckyone	3.90	100%
Nash, Steve	32	NotoriousJ	-1.00	100%
Garnett, Kevin	33	tarheel1991	10.30	100%
Kemp, Shawn	34	isacqbs58	-20.00	100%
McHale, Kevin	35	robusk	-0.60	100%
Whiteside, Hassan	36	24kpyrite	-1.70	100%
Harden, James	37	cjok1051	-16.90	100%
Williams, Deron	38	gerryred	-1.70	100%
Simmons, Ben	39	tau1624	#N/A	0%
Billups, Chauncey	40	24kpyrite	6.80	100%
Thompson, Klay	41	dh555	-4.00	100%
Walton, Bill	42	jcred5	2.00	100%
Towns, Karl-Anthony	43	NotoriousJ	-5.00	50%
Drummond, Andre	44	mptrey	-5.80	100%
Ginobili, Manu	45	mikee1	-1.10	100%
Blaylock, Mookie	46	sappy	2.30	100%
Marshall, Donyell	47	robusk	-1.60	100%
Camby, Marcus	48	benhoidal	4.30	100%

Risers:

James Harden – The new 17-18 is a good one. Harden turns it over a lot less and he defends a lot more effectively than his 16-17. His passing remains stellar. Personally though, I just never feel great paying all this capital for so much usage in a single player. Harden is soaking up 8 points of usage. The max you really want to spend on additional starting lineup usage is 6 more points or else I would say you are wasting your money (honestly I rarely go that high even when resource constrained). You got 4 points into Robinson. I am not sure Robinson is enough of a low post presence to offset how much of your offense is PER% based. Also, you are throwing a whole bunch of cash at FTAs that won’t net you a return. Having such a dominant offensive threat also makes managing you bench a nightmare. I am not totally against what cjok is doing and he has the highest variance on any ODL coach from what I have observed.

Ben Simmons – In a way, this Simmons season reminds me of a high usage Rodman. He is an elite, elite rebounder for his position. He is an elite defender across multiple positions (Yes, I know he starts diminishing at SG but I think you could credibly line him up across from 4 positions and a minimum of 3 defensively). However, he also generates no threes. Simmons is a really good passer and does turn it over a good bit. To me, you are looking for the same sort of big men with Simmons as you are for Rodman. Fortunately, those big men don’t always get taken and don’t get taken too early.

Andre Drummond – This is a good opportunity for me to unveil my big man rankings:

1. Wilt Chamberlain – That being said, very rarely does anyone use the right season. Also, the right season is expensive and you don’t get much squeeze expanding him for the playoffs
2. Shaquille O’neal – I slightly prefer him to the guy at #3. Shaq’s best seasons have a higher PNT%, ever so slightly better rebounder than the best KAJ ones. Shaq also turns it over less and by virtue of having less MP48, he cost less per minute (but can still be way scaled up for a playoff run).
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabaar – Besides cost, TOs and MID%, KAJ is every bit the player Shaq is. I Get very annoyed by the fact that neither credibly defends PFs which means I need one more guy who can rotate over to defend PFs at a high level since my center can’t (in case I run into a stud PF).
4. Dwight Howard – Not the usage of #2 and 3 nor the passing. He turns it over a bit more. But outstanding PNT%, eFG%, oREB% and dREB% and defense.
5. Karl Malone – Mailman is a little MID% heavy for and he isn’t an elite rebounder. He doesn’t shoot quite as well as the guys above him. The passing, turnovers, defense and usage are elite. He can defend SFs in a pinch.
6. Charles Barkley – He doesn’t defend well but he does everything else at an elite level. Plus, you can play him at SF in some seasons which gives you a tremendous advantage on the boards. He has epic PNT% and in some seasons gives you the occasional 3.
7. David Robinson – Robinson is not the rebounder of some of the other top guys and definitely not the passer. His fouls and turnovers are just okay. He does offer 100 D but other than that every leans towards very great across the board versus elite.
8. Moses Malone – The best rebounder besides Rodman. Turnovers tend to be a little higher, usage a little lower, shooting a bit lower depending on the season.
9. Tim Duncan – Another guy who shoots well, but not great. Rebound is very good but not elite. Passing is really good. Defense and fouls are elite. Duncan is awesome and I would rather trade down and get him where he usually goes than some of the guys above and where they go. The difference in quality between Robinson, M. Malone and Duncan isn’t all that great to me.
10. Anthony Davis – He is just a touch below the others. Shooting is good but not elite, rebounding is right there with Malone as meh. Passing is low. TO% and D are awesome with a high usage rate and manageable price. He plays a lot less minute than the others.

This is really the cutoff. After this, you get into the level of DeAndre Jordan, Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside, Ben Wallace, Bill Walton, Andre Drummond, Marcus Camby, Dikembe Mutombo and Tyson Chandler. There are a couple other guys who haven’t been drafted yet and a couple more who are good but way too expensive for what you get. For all the low usage (except for Walton and Drummond) guys above, they are generally good defenders (except for Drummond) and rebounders and not too much else. Most don’t play too many minutes that they are expensive are don’t scale up for the playoffs. The differences are subtle and you might go one way or the other based on your team. McHale is an exception in this group – he is kind of an edge case. I would never reach out of draft position for one if the others were still available though. Other guys, not mentioned mean you should probably play them at SF.

Fallers:


Chauncey Billups – Honestly, nobody really fell this round except for one or two guys who dropped out of the round entirely. This was much to my annoyance. Chauncey is good. He can shoot fine and not make too many mistakes. He gets you four points of usage. I don’t find him to be dramatically better than someone you would get in the third or fourth but I would never criticize anyone for taking him here. I myself took him in the second a couple of ODL’s ago.

Explain Yourself:

24kpyrite – You traded down and I like both of your picks. I just think you could be in a tough spot without an elite scorer before your third pick.

Isacqbs58 – Kemp is good but another head scratcher at that spot.

6theluckyone – 2 rounds down, no usage to show for it.

Dangerous Combos:

Dbkc – Giannis and Kawhi is a really awesome start. You have efficient scoring and defense to cover 5 positions after only two rounds. Get some threes and some decent big men and you are completely set.

Gerryred – Nice start with former Jazz Mailman and Deron.

Pharrop – Moses falling and Hardaway being available is good example of taking what the draft board gives you.

Curious Combos:

Tau1624 – Good 17-18 start and I like both players. I just need to see how it turns out.

Sappy – Both Mookie and Chandler felt early there to me. I don’t love Mookie in general.

Notorious J – You traded up. You have a ton of usage. You spent quite a lot of money. You two subpar defenders. You turn it over a ton. But also I haven’t given up on this team. I think it could still happen!

I'm going to do 3 and 4 and the same time because both are done at this point and it would be pretty silly to pretend like I don't know what happened in the fourth when I am analyzing the third.

Round 3:

Marion, Shawn	49	benhoidal	4.10	100%
Mutombo, Dikembe	50	robusk	2.00	100%
Chandler, Tyson	51	sappy	-3.40	100%
Conley, Mike	52	mikee1	-9.40	50%
Porter, Terry	53	mptrey	6.10	100%
McAdoo, Bob	54	uptowngbv	10.00	100%
Capela, Clint	55	jcred5	-72.45	20%
Brand, Elton	56	dh555	4.60	100%
Lowry, Kyle	57	benhoidal	-17.67	90%
Jokic, Nikola	58	tau1624	-21.17	60%
Russell, Bill	59	gerryred	18.30	100%
Erving, Julius	60	cjok1051	20.40	100%
Oladipo, Victor	61	24kpyrite	#N/A	0%
Allen, Ray	62	robusk	-10.40	100%
Thomas, Isaiah	63	isacqbs58	-2.00	10%
Drexler, Clyde	64	tarheel1991	-9.20	100%
Johnson, Marques	65	uptowngbv	1.11	90%
Mourning, Alonzo	66	6theluckyone	11.94	100%
Boerwinkle, Tom	67	pharrop	-1.80	100%
Noah, Joakim	68	jkaye24	8.00	100%
Nance, Larry	69	copernicus	-2.20	100%
Gilmore, Artis	70	dBKC	43.10	100%
Stoudemire, Amare	71	ysw128	14.50	100%
Jones, Bobby	72	Midge	-0.70	100%

Round 4:

Johnson, Kevin	73	Midge	-19.26	90%
Rollins, Tree	74	ysw128	-12.00	70%
Holiday, Jrue	75	dBKC	-53.00	40%
Boozer, Carlos	76	copernicus	-18.78	90%
Rondo, Rajon	77	jkaye24	-1.20	100%
Williams, Marvin	78	pharrop	-31.57	70%
Ibaka, Serge	79	6theluckyone	-4.20	100%
Irving, Kyrie	80	uptowngbv	-27.00	20%
Brandon, Terrell	81	tarheel1991	-11.10	50%
Petrovic, Drazen	82	isacqbs58	#N/A	0%
Harper, Derek	83	robusk	23.00	100%
Grant, Horace	84	24kpyrite	14.00	100%
Ward, Charlie	85	cjok1051	12.70	100%
Porter, Otto	86	gerryred	-27.00	40%
Green, Danny	87	tau1624	-11.00	60%
Ray, Clifford	88	24kpyrite	12.60	100%
Calderon, Jose	89	dh555	2.30	100%
Barry, Brent	90	jcred5	8.70	100%
Eaton, Mark	91	uptowngbv	-26.00	40%
Covington, Robert	92	mptrey	-40.35	20%
Horford, Al	93	mikee1	-29.18	90%
George, Paul	94	sappy	-2.67	30%
Williams, Buck	95	jhsukow	11.10	100%
Mullin, Chris	96	tcdahn7	-27.70	60%

Risers:

Clint Capela: I mentioned this in the analysis of ben and my picks at the 2/3 turn. For those that were curious the players were Gilmore (too expensive), Capela (not enough minutes) and Amare (not ben’s style). This Capela season is awesome and middle to late third is the right spot for him.

Nikola Jokic: Better version of an already popular sim season.

Jrue Holiday: This Jrue season is awesome but this feels only slightly high. He is like a 4 point usage version of Ward/D. Harper. I liken it to about the quality of a Conley/Lowry 16/17 season… better D worse passing.

Bob Covington: Fine season but I am not sure he is different than 4-5 other guys who tend to go much lower.

Fallers:

Bill Russell: There are plenty of owners who will make the case for Russell and there is one to be made… just not by me.

Julius Erving: Basically Klay Thompson without the threes… so why bother?

Alonzo Mourning: This is about the right spot for ‘Zo. Totally fine with the pick.

Artis Gilmore: I considered taking him at the turn. Really expensive with lots of fouls and turnovers. Lots of seasons to choose from.

Derek Harper: He often goes in the third which is too high with the 17/18 drops. He is good value in the fourth though.

Cool Foursomes:

Jcred5 – Kevin Durant, Bill Walton, Clint Capela, Brent Barry: I wasn’t in a position for Durant but I wanted to draft the last three players in this list myself.

Mptrey – Michael Jordan, Andre Drummond, Terry Porter, Robert Covington: Drummond, Porter and Convington went a bit higher than I think they should but the team is well balanced in every way so far.

Benhoidal – Dwight Howard, Shawn Marion, Marcus Camby, Kyle Lowry: I could see the team getting exposed by the right back court rotation and he will need to pick up more threes but it is hard to argue with the team so far.

Tepid Foursomes:

Tarheel1991 – DeAndre Jordan, Kevin Garnett, Clyde Drexler, Terrell Brandon: The shooting distribution is just way too midrange heavy and the team is costly.

Midge – Rudy Gobert, Larry Bird, Bobby Jones, Kevin Johnson: Pretty scary to be this low on threes after four rounds.

Jkaye24 – Magic Johnson, Draymond Green, Joakim Noah, Rajon Rondo: Looks like jkaye24 may be going with the assist strategy and I am not sure that works in the ODL.

Explain Yourself:

Cjok1051, dbkc, isacqbs58: Same basic question to each of these owners is why the hell are you buying so much usage? Cjok1051 tried to make the case at one point in the forum that his third round pick would be a super sub but then you are just allocating a premium resource that won’t play in crunch time. I don’t know man, I just don’t get it.

Round 5

Selection	Pick	Owner	Pick v. ADP	% of Time Drafted
Washington, Kermit	97	tcdahn7	#N/A	0%
McMillan, Nate	98	robusk	-9.80	100%
Millsap, Paul	99	sappy	17.00	10%
Bogut, Andrew	100	mikee1	10.70	100%
Sanders, Larry	101	mptrey	7.11	90%
Iguodala, Andre	102	NotoriousJ	0.43	70%
Cheeks, Maurice	103	jcred5	22.90	100%
Smith, J.R.	104	dh555	-7.50	100%
Evans, Tyreke	105	24kpyrite	#N/A	0%
Kirilenko, Andrei	106	tau1624	31.56	90%
Green, A.C.	107	gerryred	-5.00	20%
Murphy, Troy	108	cjok1051	-3.60	50%
Korver, Kyle	109	benhoidal	23.75	40%
Frazier, Walt	110	jhsukow	38.88	80%
Gross, Bob	111	isacqbs58	#N/A	0%
Burrell, Scott	112	tarheel1991	#N/A	0%
Richardson, Jason	113	NotoriousJ	-17.00	20%
Payton, Gary	114	6theluckyone	55.20	100%
Sabonis, Arvydas	115	pharrop	7.50	100%
Price, Mark	116	jkaye24	39.70	100%
Beverley, Patrick	117	copernicus	-2.17	30%
Andersen, Chris	118	dBKC	-5.86	70%
Edge, Charlie	119	ysw128	18.43	70%
Rush, Brandon	120	Midge	-5.60	30%

Risers:

Tyreke Evans: Only real riser and while his 17-18 season is good, I am not sure it is appreciably awesome. I mean that season lasted until the third round in a 17-18 only draft just last week.

Fallers:

Maurice Cheeks: Unless you are an elite passer or rebounder for the position, I have very little use for a guard who doesn’t shoot threes.

Walt Frazier: See above

Gary Payton: This is probably low for him, but he is high usage without being especially efficient. He is pretty good though and if you can afford his salary getting him in the 5^th is a steal.

Mark Price: He isn’t a great defender but he is as good a PG as a number of the guys taken in the third and fourth so a good fetch here.

Best Picks:

Kyle Korver: Perfect fit for ben and I kept wishing someone else would have picked him. Ben is always going to get someone from the Otto Porter/Korver mold in this spot until other people realize how valuable that archetype is.

Nate McMillan: ODL classic who does everything you want from a low usage guard

Arvydas Sabonis: Love the player, the spot and the fit.

Strange Picks:

JR Smith: I’ve learned to trust dh555 but this pick seems to indicate Brand is playing at the 4 which I don’t love.

Bob Gross: Why?

Scott Burrell: No need to draft him, he would have been available after the draft.

Lots of Work to do in the 6^th:

Tcdahn7, jhsukow, isacbbs58, mikee1, tau1624: All these teams look to have a lot of minutes to fill and will be under the gun to find them in the 6^th.

Just need to fill in the edges and find some money:

Pharrop, jkaye24, dbkc, Copernicus, notoriousj: These teams seem good on usage and minutes, just need to flesh out the intricacies of the roster.

Round 6

Selection	Pick	Owner	Pick v. ADP	% of Time Drafted
Kanter, Enes	121	Midge	-7.07	60%
Nelson, Jameer	121	Midge	1.91	90%
Gatling, Chris	122	ysw128	-1.17	90%
West, Jerry	122	ysw128	24.43	70%
Tinsley, Jamaal	123	dBKC	1.53	100%
Oakley, Charles	123	dBKC	5.28	80%
Wesley, David	124	copernicus	-4.60	20%
Gasol, Pau	124	copernicus	22.50	100%
Westbrook, Russell	125	jkaye24	37.00	30%
Lacey, Sam	125	jkaye24	8.17	30%
Middleton, Khris	126	pharrop	#N/A	0%
Dunleavy Jr., Mike	126	pharrop	#N/A	0%
Ellington, Wayne	127	6theluckyone	#N/A	0%
Gordon, Eric	127	6theluckyone	15.40	10%
McRoberts, Josh	128	NotoriousJ	#N/A	0%
Hill, George	128	NotoriousJ	8.35	100%
Perdue, Will	129	tarheel1991	#N/A	0%
Lin, Jeremy	129	tarheel1991	#N/A	0%
Johnson, Steve	130	isacqbs58	#N/A	0%
Ceballos, Cedric	130	isacqbs58	7.30	20%
Powe, Leon	131	robusk	-1.53	30%
Miller, Mike	131	jhsukow	8.20	20%
Nowitzki, Dirk	132	tcdahn7	60.95	40%
Burke, Trey	132	24kpyrite	#N/A	0%
Bol, Manute	133	cjok1051	1.75	60%
Battier, Shane	133	cjok1051	12.70	20%
Monroe, Greg	134	gerryred	#N/A	0%
Redick, J.J.	134	gerryred	#N/A	0%
Mirotic, Nikola	135	tau1624	8.30	20%
Moreland, Eric	135	tau1624	#N/A	0%
Bell, Jordan	136	benhoidal	#N/A	0%
McGee, JaVale	136	benhoidal	-3.13	30%
Lee, David	137	dh555	4.00	40%
Anderson, Ryan	137	dh555	15.48	100%
Valanciunas, Jonas	138	jcred5	8.48	50%
Satoransky, Tomas	138	jcred5	#N/A	0%
Farmar, Jordan	139	uptowngbv	3.78	40%
Hield, Buddy	139	uptowngbv	-2.40	10%
Anthony, Carmelo	140	mptrey	30.79	70%
O'Quinn, Kyle	140	mptrey	18.50	70%
Redd, Michael	141	mikee1	11.17	90%
Vasquez, Greivis	141	mikee1	#N/A	0%
Curry, Dell	142	sappy	10.15	20%
Ruland, Jeff	142	sappy	14.30	50%
O'Neal, Jermaine	143	jhsukow	#N/A	0%
Aldrich, Cole	143	jhsukow	11.20	10%
Lavine, Zach	144	tcdahn7	#N/A	0%
Marbury, Stephon	144	tcdahn7	#N/A	0%

I'll post some team by team evals so I will be pretty light on evaluations here.

Best Picks:

Chris Gatling: one of my favorite guys for front court bench usage.
George Hill: Has a great backup season
Jeremy Lin: His Nets season is a great backup.
Cedric Ceballos: Really efficient scorer I have used in lots of leagues.
Nikola Mirotic: I like him a lot as a multi-position bench guy
Eric Moreland: Love that 17-18 season
Jordan Bell: Same as Moreland
Michael Redd: The Cedric Ceballos of perimeter scoring
JaVale McGee: Great 10 minutes

Strangest Picks:

Jerry West: Pretty big piece to be adding at this stage in the game.
Russell Westbrook: Yikes
Dirk Nowitzki: Would be another huge matzah ball but he is such a nice fit with Rodman.
Stephon Marbury: Yuck
Manute Bol: Not a fan although in an older version of the sim that like 4 people on this site remember, Bol was dominant.

I am making these predictions before seeing the teams or the divisions, so these are just draft assessments. I will make some formal predictions after everyone gets their teams in. Also, I don’t know you all IRL so this isn’t personal. Just my best guess. You are free to prove me wrong. I don’t know everything. I am just doing this for fun and to make the league a fun place to be. Also I had a couple beers while writing this so I think the evals get worse as I go along. Hope it is a fun read.

24kpyrite

Whiteside, Hassan
Grant, Horace
Oladipo, Victor
Billups, Chauncey
Ray, Clifford
Evans, Tyreke
Burke, Trey
There are a lot of things to like about this team. The defense is stellar and there is terrific rebounding. I just don’t particularly like the scoring. Billups isn’t good enough to be a primary option and I am not crazy about Oladipo. Some reaches on the bench. 30-40 win team.

6theluckyone

Mourning, Alonzo
Wallace, Ben
Stockton, John
Payton, Gary
Ibaka, Serge
Gordon, Eric
Ellington, Wayne
This team waited until the third round to get any scoring. Payton and Mourning aren’t terrible places to go with that but they aren’t great choices as a first and second option. The bench is fine. Ibaka is okay, I think he gets over-drafted. The defense and rebounding should be good. 30-40 win team.

benhoidal

Howard, Dwight
Marion, Shawn
Camby, Marcus
Lowry, Kyle
McGee, JaVale
Korver, Kyle
Bell, Jordan
Fits a common archetype ben likes, which is loading up on frontcourt defense and boards (in the last 10 seasons, he’s had Dwight 4 times, Korver 3 times, Marion 2 times, Lowry 2 times… when he doesn’t get these guys he has similar players). He’d be able to talk to it more than me, but I think that because he almost always plays +2/+3 defense, the rebounding is crucial and the backcourt defense is less important. Lowry is an okay defender assuming ben uses his best season. He is super low on minutes and passing in the backcourt but he will find people like he usually does. I like the bench guys a lot. Not ben’s best work but a good team. 45-55 win team.

cjok1051

Robinson, David
Erving, Julius
Harden, James
Murphy, Troy
Battier, Shane
Ward, Charlie
Bol, Manute
I am… not a fan. Robinson/Harden/Erving is just too weird of a trio. I think he will probably have Erving off the bench and go Robinson-Murphy-Battier-Harden-Ward. There should be enough of everything with that lineup but the SF and PF spots there are very meh. I am always way off on making predictions with cjok though. He is the highest variance owner in this format. I’ll hedge and say 30-40 win team.

copernicus

Duncan, Tim
Pippen, Scottie
Boozer, Carlos
Nance, Larry
Gasol, Pau
Wesley, David
Beverley, Patrick
A classic Copernicus team with great defense and not too many flaws. In the last 10 seasons, he has had Duncan, Pippen and Boozer three times a piece. Plus he has had Nance and Wesley twice. So he knows how to use these guys. They cover for each other nicely. Could be light on passing and threes which may end up as the flaw of the team. 40-50 wins.

dBKC

Antetokounmpo, Giannis
Gilmore, Artis
Leonard, Kawhi
Oakley, Charles
Andersen, Chris
Holiday, Jrue
Tinsley, Jamaal
I just don’t think this will come together. I mean, I love Giannis and I love Leonard. The new Holiday season is nice. Tinsley and Birdman are ODL classics. I just think this team is too expensive as it stands, with maybe some money wasted on usage. So it is likely the bench will be super soft and not sure if dbkc will be able to get enough threes. 30-40 wins.

dh555

Abdul-Jabbar, Kareem
Brand, Elton
Lee, David
Thompson, Klay
Anderson, Ryan
Calderon, Jose
Smith, J.R.
It’s not dh555’s best work but that is a high bar. I like KAJ a lot. Brand at SF is nice. Klay is super efficient but he doesn’t rebound or pass. Anderson and Lee are sieves and since KAJ can’t rotate down, teams with two good forwards could be a problem. Klay can’t rotate down and Calderon is also a sieve so PGs could give the team problems. (dh has drafted Klay and JR both 3 out of the last 10 ODLs) All that being said, this team shoots threes hyper efficiently, scores in the post, rebounds well. It will be good. 40-50 wins.

gerryred

Malone, Karl
Green, A.C.
Russell, Bill
Monroe, Greg
Williams, Deron
Porter, Otto
Redick, J.J.
Three great picks and 4 picks I don’t like. Malone, Deron Williams and Otto Porter are all terrific in this format. With Mailman and Deron, you are a little midrange slanted. Russell, AC Green, Monroe and Reddick don’t do anything for me though. Gerryred is generally a good drafter… I don’t know here though. 25-35 wins.

isacqbs58

Kemp, Shawn
Parish, Robert
Thomas, Isaiah
Ceballos, Cedric
Johnson, Steve
Gross, Bob
Petrovic, Drazen
Tough start for the newbie. Almost every one of these picks went too early and two of them shouldn’t be drafted (Petrovic and Gross have never been drafted in the last 10 seasons for good reason). Thomas is a great scorer but he is very flawed. This team is in real trouble. Under 25 wins.

jcred5

Durant, Kevin
Capela, Clint
Walton, Bill
Valanciunas, Jonas
Barry, Brent
Cheeks, Maurice
Satoransky, Tomas
This is one of jcred’s best team and one of the best teams in the league. I don’t love the Cheeks pick because I hate guards that don’t shoot threes. Valanciunas is fine but doesn’t get me too excited. Every single other pick is outstanding. I wanted 4 of these dudes for my own team. The new Capela season is awesome. Walton and Durant’s passing offsets lowish assists for Barry. There is great defense, shooting, passing, rebounding. Great stuff here. 50-60 wins.

jhsukow

Curry, Stephen
Barkley, Charles
Williams, Buck
O'Neal, Jermaine
Frazier, Walt
Aldrich, Cole
Miller, Mike
It is hard to go wrong with a Curry-Barkley start. Buck Williams is fine. He was drafted in an okay spot for him and is a good enough player. Aldrich is one of the best low minute players in the sim. Frazier is not for me, I don’t like what I get for the money. O’Neal and Miller are totally meh. I don’t think jhsukow did enough to put the right people around Curry and Barkley. 30-40 wins.

jkaye24

Westbrook, Russell
Johnson, Magic
Noah, Joakim
Green, Draymond
Lacey, Sam
Rondo, Rajon
Price, Mark
Jkaye is going with the overloaded assist strategy and I remain unconvinced it can be successful in this league. Magic, Draymond (TWO SPARTANS BABY!) and Noah are good independently. I dislike Rondo here and Westbrook is a nightmare. Mark Price is a good pick. Lacey is fine. I don’t want to play this team but I also don’t think it will be a great one. 30-40 wins.

Midge

Gobert, Rudy
Bird, Larry
Jones, Bobby
Kanter, Enes
Johnson, Kevin
Rush, Brandon
Nelson, Jameer
Jameer and Rush are ODL classics to make a nice bench/cheap starter. The Kanter partial season is a good bench option too. Gobert and Bird was a beautiful twosome at the turn. I tried to trade up for Bird. Jones and Johnson are not my favorites but other owners love them and they almost always get picked. Hopefully Midge doesn’t sabotage himself by drafting below 19,000 minutes again. 35-45 wins.

mikee1

O'Neal, Shaquille
Ginobili, Manu
Bogut, Andrew
Horford, Al
Conley, Mike
Redd, Michael
Vasquez, Greivis
Mikee hasn’t had much success in the ODL so far but man oh man is this team awesome. Maybe tied with jcred for my favorite team? Shaq is a pain scoring behemoth. Manu is one of my favorite players in the sim. Bogut is cheap but rebounds, defends and passes wonderfully. Assuming you are using the right Horford season, you get three positions of a balanced big man. Conley and Redd are hyper efficient in the backcourt. Vazquez is a fine backup. (Mikee has drafted Bogut 4 out of the last 10 ODLs, Manu and Redd 3 out of the last 10) This *should* be at least a 50 win team in mikee doesn’t muck it up.

mptrey

Jordan, Michael
Drummond, Andre
Anthony, Carmelo
Porter, Terry
Sanders, Larry
O'Quinn, Kyle
Covington, Robert
Jordan is Jordan. Drummond rebounds a ton. Melo has a good season for backing up Jordan. Porter is classic ODL PG. Sanders gets you three position defense and rebounding. O’Quinn has a beautiful backup season. Covington is pretty good. No real holes on this roster but nothing I am in love with. 40-50 wins.

NotoriousJ

Olajuwon, Hakeem
Towns, Karl-Anthony
Nash, Steve
Iguodala, Andre
Richardson, Jason
Hill, George
McRoberts, Josh
I don’t like Hakeem in the ODL. Not efficient and expensive. Towns can’t defend for a premium pick but does everything else well. Same for Nash. Iggy, Hill and Richardson are all affordable guys to round out a team with. Lots of threes here to compliment an inside presence. I just think the fouls, turnovers and defense are a problem. 25-35 wins.

pharrop

Malone, Moses
Hardaway, Anfernee
Sabonis, Arvydas
Boerwinkle, Tom
Williams, Marvin
Dunleavy Jr., Mike
Middleton, Khris
I don’t know if I would have drafted MDJ or Middleton, but in the 6^th you just have to go with guys you like who fill out the team so I am not going to nitpick there too much. The other 5 picks are all ODL staples. Pharrop has defense, rebounding, threes covered and is fine on passing. The team doesn’t have a lot of holes but it is just okay efficiency wise, with what could be a lot of fouls and turnovers. 40-50 wins.

robusk

McHale, Kevin
Mutombo, Dikembe
Marshall, Donyell
Allen, Ray
Harper, Derek
Powe, Leon
McMillan, Nate
Not my best team. I got too cocky thinking I could scoop up people who fell too far when I traded down and it bit me in the ***. I scrambled and took McHale, but once you take McHale you basically have scripted out the rest of your draft because you need such specific things and they all go in pretty well defined areas of the draft. Ultimately I ended up with two highly efficient 1 and 2 scoring options and my defense is awesome. I am really just squeaking by in passing and rebounding though. I narrowly got over the Mendoza line on threes. 45-55 wins.

sappy

Chamberlain, Wilt
Chandler, Tyson
Millsap, Paul
Ruland, Jeff
George, Paul
Blaylock, Mookie
Curry, Dell
The Wilt teams are the hardest to forecast because like 90% of the time people choose the wrong season of Wilt and I have no idea why. Hopefully sappy picks the right one. Ruland, George and Blaylock are not my kind of players but they are popular so I can’t knock it too much. I would have rather got a SF/PF type in the Chandler spot since he can’t rotate down and Wilt can’t either… so his defense gets mildly wasted by only being able to be used at one spot. Mookie, Millsap and George also have different seasons that people pick. So really this team is impossible to forecast. 30-40 wins but like 2% confidence.

tarheel1991

Garnett, Kevin
Jordan, DeAndre
Brandon, Terrell
Drexler, Clyde
Perdue, Will
Burrell, Scott
Lin, Jeremy
I know which seasons of these players I would use and I think it leaves room for a pretty decent bench. I don’t love the scoring efficiency or shot distribution among the high usage guys here but everything else is pretty good. Not too many fouls or turnovers. Lots of passing, good threes, excellent defense, awesome rebounding. 40-50 wins.

tau1624

Davis, Anthony
Jokic, Nikola
Kirilenko, Andrei
Simmons, Ben
Green, Danny
Mirotic, Nikola
Moreland, Eric
tau is really good at this man. I don’t want to offend anyone by omission, so I won’t put my rankings but tau is possibly in my personal top 5 owners in terms of I always know regardless of league that the squad will be formidable. This team is a little weird but I think it will work out. Simmons annoyingly probably can only start at P, but I don’t mind letting him defend across four positions. He is a weird player to build around because he is a high turnover PG who doesn’t shoot threes but is exceptional at everything else. Jokic can’t defend but does everything else well and the new season of Davis is so f’ing sweet. Kirilenko is awesome, I love Danny Green in the ODL, Mirotic and Moreland are two of my favorite backups. I think it’s possible this team might be expensive with maybe a little wasted usage as well. 40-50 wins.

tcdahn7

James, LeBron
Nowitzki, Dirk
Rodman, Dennis
Mullin, Chris
Washington, Kermit
Marbury, Stephon
LaVine, Zach
This is a tough nut to crack. I have talked about this a lot but Rodman is tough in the ODL. He is an open league player. LeBron is probably my favorite player for this format. A lot of eggs were put in the Rodman/LeBron basket. Dirk is my absolute favorite person to pair with Rodman and it is pretty fortunate he lasted to where you snagged him while you still had the money. Mullin, Washington, Marbury and LeVine are all either mediocre or subpar picks in my opinion. The LeBron/Rodman/Dirk trio is just really, really good though. 30-40 wins if you can get enough minutes (also don’t use the wrong LeBron season).

uptowngbv

Paul, Chris
McAdoo, Bob
Johnson, Marques
Irving, Kyrie
Eaton, Mark
Hield, Buddy
Farmar, Jordan
Chris Paul is the best pure PG in this league (quickie PG list: LeBron, Curry, Paul, Stockton, Magic, Kidd, P. Hardaway, Billups, Deron, Nash... I am not super crazy about the last three in that list. After that, just wait until the later rounds). I am fine with McAddo and Johnson (4^th time uptowngbv has taken Johnson the last 10 seasons) but I don’t think I’d draft them unless they fit perfectly in some team. That seems high for Irving. Hield and Farmar (3^rd time last 10 seasons) are fine picks in the 6^th. This team is not great but isn’t bad. It is going to depend heavily on getting the right division I think. 35-45 wins.

ysw128

Wade, Dwyane
Stoudemire, Amare
West, Jerry
Kidd, Jason
Rollins, Tree
Gatling, Chris
Edge, Charlie
Maybe the most confusing team. Wade is not my taste in the ODL. Kidd is fantastic plus him and Wade give you a great rebounding backcourt which gives you options up front. I like Amare a ton on the right team. With Wade and Jerry West, not as much. The West pick just threw me for a huge loop. So you are going Kidd-West-Wade-Amare-Rollins? That is wild. (ysw has drafted Rollins, West and Kidd 3 out of the last 10 ODLs) Edge is a popular player but he is a super super weird pick on this team. Gatling is the dream Amare backup. 25-35 wins.

Playoff Predictions

Eastern Conference
In:
jcred5
robusk
tau1624
tarheel1991
sappy
pharrop

Just missing:
ysw128
24kpyrite

Western Conference
In:
benhoidal
dh555
mikee1
copernicus
gerryred
dBKC

Just missing:
mptrey
uptowngbv
cjok1051

Playoffs
Eastern Conference Finals:
jcred5 over robusk

Western Conference Finals:
benhoidal over dh555

Finals:
jcred5 over benhoidal

Bets

Moving to a different thread! See ODL 70 Bets thread.

Excited to use Shaq, been a long time (possibly never) since I've had him in the ODL.

Let the great guards drop to the 2/3 turnaround!

Boom shaka laka yo here comes the Chief Rocka

tcdahn7	LeBron James	Dennis Rodman	Chris Mullin	Kermit Washington
jhsukow	Stephen Curry	Charles Barkley	Buck Williams	Walt Frazier
sappy	Wilt Chamberlain	Mookie Blaylock	Tyson Chandler	Paul George	Paul Millsap
mikee1	Shaquille O'Neal	Manu Ginobili	Mike Conley	Al Horford	Andrew Bogut
mptrey	Michael Jordan	Andre Drummond	Terry Porter	Robert Covington	Larry Sanders
uptowngbv	Chris Paul	Bob McAdoo	Marques Johnson	Kyrie Irving	Mark Eaton
jcred5	Kevin Durant	Bill Walton	Clint Caplea	Brent Barry	Maurice Cheeks
dh555	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Klay Thompson	Elton Brand	Jose Calderon	J.R. Smith
24kpyrite	Hassan Whiteside	Chauncey Billups	Victor Oladipo	Horace Grant	Clifford Ray	Tyreke Evans
tau1624	Anthony Davis	Ben Simmons	Nikola Jokic	Danny Green	Andrei Kirilenko
gerryred	Karl Malone	Deron Williams	Bill Russell	Otto Porter	A.C. Green
cjok1051	David Robinson	James Harden	Julius Erving	Charlie Ward	Troy Murphy
benhoidal	Dwight Howard	Marcus Camby	Shawn Marion	Kyle Lowry	Kyle Korver
robusk	Kevin McHale	Donyell Marshall	Dikembe Mutombo	Ray Allen	Derek Harper	Nate McMillan
isacqbs58	Robert Parish	Shawn Kemp	Isaiah Thomas	drazen petrovic	Bob Gross
tarheel1991	DeAndre Jordan	Kevin Garnett	Clyde Drexler	Terrell Brandon	Scott Burrell
NotoriousJ	Hakeem Olajuwon	Steve Nash	Karl-Anthony Towns	Andre Iguodola	Jason Richardson
6theluckyone	John Stockton	Ben Wallace	Alonzo Mourning	Serge Ibaka	Gary Payton
pharrop	Moses Malone	Anfernee Hardaway	Tom Boerwinkle	Marvin Williams	Arvydas Sabonis
jkaye24	Magic Johnson	Draymond Green	Joakim Noah	Rajon Rondo	Mark Price
copernicus	Tim Duncan	Scottie Pippen	Larry Nance	Carlos Boozer	Patrick Beverly
dBKC	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Kawhi Leonard	Artis Gilmore	Jrue Holiday	Chris Andersen
ysw128	Dwyane Wade	Jason Kidd	Amar'e Stoudemire	Tree Rollins	Charlie Edge	Chris Gatling	Jerry West
Midge	Larry Bird	Rudy Gobert	Bobby Jones	Kevin Johnson	Brandon Rush	Enes Kanter	Jameer Nelson

and there goes the Chief

not sure how i ended up with the 8th pick after making it to the 2nd(or 3rd?) round but im pretty thrilled about it.....kareem falling to me was the icing on the cake...you guys are in trouble

gonna use the big boy 44 mpg version and give the league nightly 35/15/5s

Posted by dh555 on 1/7/2019 10:24:00 PM (view original):
not sure how i ended up with the 8th pick after making it to the 2nd(or 3rd?) round but im pretty thrilled about it.....kareem falling to me was the icing on the cake...you guys are in trouble

gonna use the big boy 44 mpg version and give the league nightly 35/15/5s

Should be a masters class in salary management.

This Is It, Chief: What I Would Have Done If I Drafted Parish In The First

1. Robert Parish
2. Chauncey Billups
3. XXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
4.
5.
6. & XXXX XXXXXXXX