Bubblewatch day 9
Ok, it feels like there are a few teams in the top ten, I would have not thought there. And quite a few teams that should, but will probably not make it to the playoffs. Also: two seasons ago, not a single SIM AI made the playoffs. But this season there are better SIMs than in a while.

CIAA

Same two team story that we knew from seasons past.

Lock: NCCU (9-0, WIS: 2 SOS:27)

High SOS, beaten top oponents, nothing difficult left.

Should be in:

Virginia State (7-2, WIS: 22 SOS: 33)

Yeah the WIS ranking is not awesome, but neither are the remaining oponents.

GLIAC:

Should be in:

Grand Valley State (9-0, WIS: 3, SOS: 21): Did not make the playoffs last season, and this season on course for some awesome seeding. I cannot be the only one who is impressed and surprised by wins over Ferris, Edinboro and Findlay. Basically one win away from lock status.

Ferris State (8-1, WIS: 7, SOS: 13): A decentish schedule with one loss, the one to GVSU. Things would have to go weird for them to completely miss the playoffs. Playing GVSU in the CCG again seems more likely.

Work left to do:

Saginaw Valley State (8-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 57): Currently things are looking good, and even a loss to GVSU tomorrow would likely be survivable, but more than that would likely not be sustainable.

Wayne State (7-2, WIS: 39 SOS: 105): In theory this SIM could make it in, but it would probably take a undefeated rest of the season, unlikely to happen. But the win over Findlay makes it at least conceivable.

Findlay (6-3, WIS: 40, SOS: 64): That double overtime loss to GVSU yesterday hurt. The loss to Wayne state hurt more. Findlay needs to right the ship before playing Ferris.

GSC

Nobody is a should be in, but several teams will likely be soon.

Should be in:

Work to do:

Central Arkansas (7-2, WIS: 29, SOS: 44). Still in it, currently on the right side, but a loss to West Georgia (or anyone else) and it becomes toss up.

West Georgia (8-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 67): It is about time West Georgia makes the playoffs… but it is far from certain it will happen. The game on day 12 with UCA looms large and there are other hurdles like West Alabama and Harding .

Delta State (9-0, WIS: 16, SOS: 90): Close to a should be in or lock, but with two real games still left, delta still needs to make sure things are a OK

Valdosta State (8-1, WIS: 12, SOS: 43): Are looking good, but a win over Delta tomorrow would make things much more certain.

Arkansas Monticello (6-3, WIS: 46, SOS: 85): All was good.  And then conference play started and UAM just could not manage to create enough offense to beat any of three oponents that were very much in reach. This leaves UAM with the necessity to in out from here.

LSC

Locks:

Should be in:

SE Oklahoma Durant (8-1, WIS: 8, SOS: 17) :

Only one real opponent left. Once that is over, SEO will be a lock

Work left to do:

Central Oklahoma (4-5, WIS: 38, SOS: 3): UCO seems to have overscheduled for this season. It was a brutal OOC, and just about nothing went right, and then came the additional loss to TAMC. It feels like UCO needs to beat SEO to get an at large.

Abilene Christian (7-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 47): Saturday will bring the game vs TAMC for the division. I don’t think ACU would miss the playoffs if they lost that one, but why risk it?

Texas A&M commerce (9-0, WIS: 14, SOS: 79): TAMC is 9-0 for the first time under phimutau. Playoff wise things are looking good, at  least two losses would still be sustainable.

MIAA

Work left to do:

NW Missouri State (6-3, WIS: 27, SOS: 12): Well, tendentially the SOS will decrease so winning out would be the safe play. That will not be a gimme though.

Lock Haven (7-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 45): Well, I don’t think anyone in the MIAA is in much better position, that does not mean that it is a simple task to win out. But a loss in the CCG would likely be ok.

Will need help to get an at large:

Truman State (5-4, WIS: 41, SOS: 23): Despite a currently decent WIS ranking things are not looking awesome. Definitely needs to win out from here.

NCC

Its simple. This is a one team conference, two maybe if somebody steals a bit.

Locks:

Work to do:

Humboldt State (9-0, WIS: 24, SOS: 139): I am not impressed by Humboldt (that schedule was a total cakewalk), but Humboldt does not need to impress to make the playoffs, just hold serve. A win tomorrow over western and this is a should be in.

NE-10

One of those conferences where I think a SIM will make it in.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Bryant (8-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 71): Decently comfortable, but a loss to Long Island would eliminate a lot of the error margin.

Long Island (8-1, WIS: 33, SOS: 122): An underwhelming OOC schedule and a loss to a tough SIM, mean that even 8-1 CLong Island has not much margin for error. Maybe a loss to Bryant would be sustainable, but it feels like a coin toss.

Stonehill (7-2, WIS: 21, SOS: 35): Stonehill played a medium decent OOC, and then upset Long Island. If they manage to win out until the CCG they’d be safely in, a loss before would put them close to the cut line.

NSIC

Locks:

Minnesota Crookston (9-0, WIS: 1, SOS: 14):  No comment needed.

Work left to do:

Northern State (8-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 84): With the win over WVSC things look good, but there is not quite enough space to be able to afford a loss before the CCG and be comfortable.

West Virginia State (5-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 5): Would not really be close to the mark, if the SOS would not be so high, but it is bound to decrease now. If they win out I’d tend to say its not good enough, but I am not sure.

Need help to get an at large:

Minnesota Duluth (5-4, WIS: 51, SOS: 50): Would have to beat UMC to keep having a shot.

PSAC

Locks:

Should be in:

Millersville (9-0, WIS: 5, SOS: 34): there are still three tough games left. But things would have to go super weird for Millersville to miss the playoffs.

Mansfield (8-1, WIS:4 SOS:1): I still can’t belive this team missed the playoffs last season. The benefit of the number one SOS is that a loss is not really a problem. There would have to be at least 3 more, before Mansfield would have to think about sweating.

Work left to do:

East Stroudsburg (9-0, WIS: 17, SOS: 94): In any other conference this would likely be a should be in.

Edinboro (6-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 19): In the west, which is a lot weaker than the east, they might still be the favorite, but the line between making the CCG and missing the playoffs remains thin. Todays W over California was a big step in the right direction though.

Slippery Rock (6-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 11): The zombie team had a break today and tomorrow, but can take maximally one more loss vs good competition.

Kutztown (8-1, WIS: 15, SOS: 48): It is a lot better SOS this season than last. But the PSAC east is a murderers row, and beating at least one of them is a necessity.

Indiana (5-4, WIS: 37, SOS: 10): If things go wrong vs Edinboro tomorrow, then it will not look too good.

California (5-4, WIS: 35, SOS: 6): Missed a chance to impress today. Now needs to beat either Indiana or Slippery Rock.

West Chester (5-4, WIS: 53, SOS: 78), Clarion (5-4 WIS: 49, SOS: 53): there are plenty of chances to impress… but they probably needs to take them all.

RMAC

Lock:

Western State (8-1, WIS: 10, SOS: 22): Yeah there is a loss here. But there is just nothing that could scare a team like this left on the schedule.

Work left to do:

Colorado Mines (7-2, WIS: 32, SOS: 72): the remainder of the schedule is fluff. The SOS will get worse, but at least CMU will not lose a game. It should end up being close.

SAC

The SAC has already done a good bit of cannibalism, and is probably gonna have few bids as a consequence.

Should be in:

Mars Hill (6-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 36): I thought Mars Hill was progressing… but ranked 6^th!

Work to do:

Glennville (8-1, WIS: 13, SOS: 42): Looking good. At least one loss would be unproblematic.

Carson-Newman (7-2, WIS: 34, SOS: 80): Wins over WVIT and Lenoir Rhyne could not quite cancel out the loss to Newberry. CN is currently on the right side, but I think a loss to Mars Hill would put them square on the bubble, tendency bad side.

Lenoir-Rhyne (5-4, WIS: 42, SOS: 16): Avoided disaster vs Newberry. It feels like a win over Lane should have put them close, but the schedule might have been a tad too tough and the loss to Carson Newman weighs heavy. LR probably needs to win or at least make the CCG game, but that includes a game vs Glennville.

Tusculum (5-4, WIS: 44, SOS: 25): Definitely needs to make at least the championship game, and day 12 and 13 will bring tough oponents.

Need Help:

West Virginia Tech (3-6, WIS: 45, SOS: 2): Definitely playing against eelimination in the game vs Newberry tomorrow. Also has to be afraid, that the SOS will drop more than a few spots, which would also eliminate them

Newberry (3-6, WIS: 48, SOS:8): IF the SIM could pull of the surprises (and this is one of the stronger SIMs) there may be a chance.

SIAC

Locks:

Should be in:

Quincy (9-0, WIS: 9, SOS: 61), Kentucky State (7-2, WIS:18, SOS:28), Lane (7-2, WIS: 11, SOS: 31): Unless somebody stumbles, it is all about making the CCG and wining the conference for these 3.

With imagination:

Saint Josephs (6-3, WIS: 47, SOS: 67): The WIS ranking and schedule says they have a theoretical chance. Realism says they don’t.

Posted by badaxe on 6/11/2015 6:46:00 PM (view original):
Millersville's coach mojolad
Has a team that would seem not too bad
But dachmann's low pegging
Has mojolad begging
For respect, and that is so sad

Ok, two days have gone by, and things have happened. Time for a new update. Or it would be. I prepared at half time, but now am running out of time before the WIS rankings have changed. So while overall most things should be accurate, you can just forget the WIS rankings mentioned and the SOS, as those are from day 9 and I will likely not have time and I have to run before they come out.

CIAA

Same two team story that we knew from seasons past.

Lock: NCCU (11-0, WIS: 2 SOS:27)

Should be in:

Virginia State (8-2, WIS: 22 SOS: 33)

Yeah the WIS ranking is still not awesome, but neither are the remaining opponents.

GLIAC:

Lock:

Grand Valley State (11-0, WIS: 3, SOS: 21): This keeps being a dream season for GVSU. The playoffs are a certainty.

Should be in:

Ferris State (10-1, WIS: 7, SOS: 13): one win away from complete lock status.

Work left to do:

Saginaw Valley State (9-2, WIS: 19, SOS: 57): Looking pretty good, despite the loss to GVSU, unless the SOS drops significantly they can take at least one more loss.

Wayne State (9-2, WIS: 39 SOS: 105): After a win over Findlay still in striking distance. Would have to beat Ferris on day 13 to be sure though.

Findlay (8-3, WIS: 40, SOS: 64): Bumping back, but Findlay likely needs to beat Ferris tomorrow.

GSC

Locks: Valdosta State (8-1, WIS: 12, SOS: 43): Straight up to lock status, with wins over Delta and SAU.

Should be in:

Delta State (10-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 90): Despite a loss to Valdosta things look pretty comfortable at Delta, due to todays victory over UAM.

Work to do:

Central Arkansas (7-2, WIS: 29, SOS: 44). We are closing in on the great clash with west georggia. It is for the north, and also for playoff certainty.

West Georgia (10-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 67): It is about time West Georgia makes the playoffs… but it is far from certain it will happen. A loss tomorrow would put West Georgia smack on the bubble, potentially the wrong side.

Need help to get an at large.

Arkansas Monticello (7-4, WIS: 46, SOS: 85): after todays loss, definitely needs to win out and find a big bump in SOS. The latter could maybe happen but probably not to the extent UAM needs, the former is hard to imagine with Valdosta on day 13.

LSC

Locks:

SE Oklahoma Durant (10-1, WIS: 8, SOS: 17) : There is not really anything scare left until the CCG, and even 2 losses would be sustainable.

Should be in:

Texas A&M commerce (11-0, WIS: 14, SOS: 79): This is the success TAMC has been building toward, for a long time. Not only 11-0, but just as importantly winning its division.

Work left to do:

Abilene Christian (8-3, WIS: 25, SOS: 47): The loss to TAMC hurts, not only because it will cost ACCU the division for the first time in 20 (!) seasons, but also because ACu is now on the bubble, and likely needs to win out.

Needs help to get an at large:

Central Oklahoma (5-6, WIS: 38, SOS: 3): No matter the schedule, 6 losses is very much (nobody got in with 6 in the last 9 seasons). The LSC norths down season does not help either. That said the OOC was so strong, maybe there is a way to the playoffs hidden somewhere.

MIAA

It has basically come down to 2 teams in the MIAA. I eliminated Truman state, due to its 5^th loss on Friday.

Work left to do:

NW Missouri State (8-3, WIS: 27, SOS: 12): Starting to look more comfortable, but losing before the CCG would still put a decent sweat on NMSU s playoff hopes.

Lock Haven (9-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 45): On the right side of the bubble, but the decreasing SOS, has not been helping. Chances are they’d be just on the wrong side if they lost to southwest Baptist or Missouri southern.

Missouri Southern???

Will need help to get an at large:

Truman State (6-5, WIS: 41, SOS: 23): Despite a currently decent WIS ranking things are not looking awesome. Definitely needs to win out from here.

NCC

Its simple. This is a one team conference, two maybe if somebody steals a bit.

Locks:

Work to do:

Humboldt State (11-0, WIS: 24, SOS: 139): I am not impressed by Humboldt (that schedule was a total cakewalk), but Humboldt does not need to impress to make the playoffs, just hold serve. I left it at work to do, because the SOS is actually so weak, that any loss before the CCG might throw them on the bubble. That said, I can’t really see any losing happening.

NE-10

One of those conferences where I think a SIM will make it in.

Should be in:

Bryant (10-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 71): With the win over the Long Island, Bryant basically needs total carnage and inexplicable losses to miss the playoffs.

Work left to do:

Long Island (10-2, WIS: 33, SOS: 122): Square on the bubble, as the repercussions of the loss to Bryant (or the one to Stonehill) are still hard to judge exactly but results like today don’t do much for the margin of victory factor.

Stonehill (7-2, WIS: 21, SOS: 35): Stonehill played a medium decent OOC, and then upset Long Island. If they manage to win out until the CCG they’d be safely in, a loss before would put them close to the cut line.

NSIC

I eliminated Minnesota Duluth due to its loss today

Locks:

Minnesota Crookston (11-0)

Should be in:

Northern State (10-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 84): the space increased, and unless there are multiple losses etc, Northern State can feel very confident making it in.

Work left to do:

West Virginia State (7-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 5): Keeping serve and approaching the good side of the bubble. It would not really be close to the mark, if the SOS would not be so high, but it is bound to decrease at some point. It is really hard to say where winning out would leave them.

Need help to get an at large:

PSAC

I eliminated west Chester and Clarion, since their conference-division seasons did not really get off the ground well enough.

Locks:

Millersville (11-0, WIS: 5, SOS: 34): Playoff wise certain, the win vs ESUP also gave them the clear inside track to win the division.

Mansfield (10-1, WIS:4 SOS:1): Even if they lost both remaining games, I don’t see them slipping out of the top 20.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

East Stroudsburg (10-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 94): No shame in losing to Millersville, although it did hurt division race wise. With an improving SOS even two more losses might be sustainable, but the oponents are good, and “might be” is not “will be for sure”

Kutztown (9-2, WIS: 15, SOS: 48): In a similar situation as ESUP: probably but not certainly fine even with 2 losses on day 12 and 13. Their advantage is, that they still got winning the division in their own hands if they should beat Millersville tomorrow.

Edinboro (7-4, WIS: 31, SOS: 19): Wow that was close today. The W puts Edinboro more toward the right side of the bubble.

Slippery Rock (7-4, WIS: 28, SOS: 11): Came back from it’s two days off, and couldn't hold on vs Edinboro. Now it feels like they might still need to win out in order to assure an at large.

Indiana (7-4, WIS: 37, SOS: 10): When you are a 4 loss team, consecutive wins over Edinboro and California is just what the doctor ordered. That said day 13s game vs Slippery Rock looms large, as a win means winning the division and probably the playoffs, and a loss likely might mean neither.

Need help to get an at-large

California (6-5, WIS: 35, SOS: 6): Chances are thin as it is, but a loss to SR tomorrow would eniterly burry their playoff chances.

RMAC

Lock:

Western State (10-1):

Work left to do:

Colorado Mines (9-2, WIS: 32, SOS: 72): the remainder of the schedule is fluff. The SOS will get worse, but at least CMU will not lose a game. With the scheduled loss in th CCG, it should end up being close.

SAC

I eliminated Lenoir-Rhyne after todays loss to Glennville. Loss number 7 also eliminated Newberry.

Locks

Mars Hill (8-3 WIS: 7, SOS: 12): Todays win put them to safety.

Should be in:

Glennville (10-1, WIS: 13, SOS: 42): Looking good. At least one loss would be unproblematic.

Work to do:

Carson-Newman (8-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 80): It was a good fight versus Mars Hill, but not enough. Things might still end well, but I would not bet too much on it.

Tusculum (7-4, WIS: 44, SOS: 25): Definitely needs to make at least the championship game, and day 12 and 13 will bring tough opponents.

Need Help:

West Virginia Tech (5-6, WIS: 45, SOS: 2): Held on against Newberry but definitely to win out vs Glennville and LR, and might have to do it with high MOVs and no more stains to the SOS. Feels very unlikely.

SIAC

The SIAC is currently just waiting for tomorrows game between Lane and Quincy. Who gets bids seems pretty safe pretty much since some time already. I eliminated St Josephs from the watch.

Locks:

Should be in:

Quincy (11-0, WIS: 9, SOS: 61), Kentucky State (9-2, WIS:18, SOS:28), Lane (10-1, WIS: 11, SOS: 31): Unless somebody stumbles, it is all about making the CCG and wining the conference for these 3.