Day 13
As one could expect on day 13: teams who did not make the hoped for move up the WIS rankings were moved down or off the board, since time is running out, or already has.
Overall situation:
Locks: 21, Should be in: 5, Work to do: 9, Need help for at large: 3, Need autobid: 3
Championship Games previews:
North Carolina Central (13-0, 8-0) vs Virginia State (11-2, 7-1)
Seeding implications only. The first one was a 30 point game for NCCU. Bubble implications: 0%
South eastern Oklahoma Durant (12-1, 8-0) vs Abilene Christian University (11-2, 7-1)
Also only seeding implications. Second meeting this season, the first ended 41-to in SEOs favor. Bubble implications: 0%
Western State of Colorado (13-0, 8-0) vs Colorado school of Mines (13-0, 8-0).
Well somebody will incur their first loss of the season. And that team is likely to be Mines. Bubble implications: 0%
Quincy (13-0, 8-0) vs Kentucky State (11-2, 7-1).
Another game that is purely about conference supremacy and seeding. The first meeting was won 44-20 by Quincy. Bubble implications: 0%
Central Arkansas (11-2, 8-0) vs Delta State (13-0, 8-0).
Should be an interesting one. I have Delta as the favorite, but not by much. Bubble implications: 0%
Slippery Rock (12-1, 8-0) vs East Stroudsburg University of Pensilvanya (11-2, 6-2).
I guess Slippery Rock is the slight favorite here, as they haven’t gotten knocked off in conference yet. For ESUp even a loss should be sustainable playoff wise, but the doubts are not 100% gone. Bubble implications: 5%
Glennville (12-1, 7-1) vs Mars Hill (10-3, 7-1)
It was a crazy conference season, but it ends with two teams that both seem pretty safe in the final. Yet particularly Mars Hill might still have a shadow of a doubt. Personally I think the SAC coaches should have to pay everyone else a beer, if they let the same SIM win the conference for the second season in a row. Bubble implications: 7%
Ferris State (11-2, 8-0) vs Saginaw Valley State University (12-1, 8-0)
It is unlikely that much will happen if SVSU loses clearly, but not entirely impossible, thus bubble teams will root against them. Bubble implications: 20%
Minnesota- Crookston (12-1, 8-0) vs Northern State (10-3. 8-0).
Similar as in the NCC final, bubble teams will not only want Northern State to lose, but clearly please, as losing will likely put Northern square on the bubble and their MOV may decide whether they stay in or not. Bubble implications: 70%
Humboldt State (13-0, 8-0) vs St. Cloud State (10-3, 7-1)
Likely any loss will do St Cloud in, but not certainly. Thus bubble teams will not just be rooting for Humboldt State, but will want them to beat the crap out of St Cloud, so they don't get a SOS bump that would be bigger than a losses impact. With St Cloud starting day 13 in the top 32, this is the spot several teams are eyeing to move into. Bubble implications: 90%
Bryant (12-1, 8-0), vs Stonehill (10-3, 7-1).
Stonehill only gets in with a win, and I think it is fair to say that after another nice season Bryant is a solid favorite. Likely Stonehill would make the top 32, but how they would take their spot does not matter to bubble teams, who will root against them. Bubble implications: 100%
Northwest Missouri State (12-1, 7-1), vs Washburn Topeka (10-3, 7-1):
A one loss team that played zero WIS top 40 opponents, vs a potential bid stealer with more talent than wins. I have NMSU as the fave…by a few hairs. That loss to Truman did not inspire confidence. And bubble teams will be watching nervously, as Washburn would be an outright bid stealer. Bubble implications: 100%
CIAA
Finally the CCG arrives, and there is another less boring gaame. For the gerneal interest, a closer end would be preferred.
Lock: NCCU (13-0), Virginia State (11-2)
GLIAC:
Locks:
Ferris State (11-2, WIS: 8, SOS: 10).
Should be in:
Work left to do:
Saginaw Valley State (12-1, WIS: 26, SOS: 138): Second day of helping their MOVs. 2 loss teams miss the playoffs seldom, even less if they played a CCG. That said it happens, and SVSUs resume is close to being in the range where that can happen. Part of that is not on them, but on the conference.
Need help:
Findlay (9-4, WIS: 38, SOS: 41): Did what they could, but I they are kind of far away to make it.
GSC
Delta came back to beat Valdosta, and now Delta and UCA squaree off in the final. For the others it is not looking so good, Henderson State was taken off the board.
Locks:
Central Arkansas (11-2), Delta State (13-0):
Valdosta State (11-2, WIS: 19, SOS: 105): Joins UCA and Delta despite the loss. And what a game between them and Delta it was. Delta mounted a comeback that ended with a TD basically in the last second.
Shoud be in:
Work to do:
West Georgia (10-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 89): It was 6-3 at the half but in the end they won almost convincingly. The SOS took a hit though, and now West Georgia is shivering, square on the bubble, thinking of what could be had they not had that horror game versus 3-10 west Alabama.
LSC
The conference is primarily holding its breath about whether TAMC will make the playoffs this season.
Locks:
SE Oklahoma Durant (12-1), Central Oklahoma (12-1)
Abilene Christian (11-2, WIS: 11, SOS: 15): Nothing to fear here. Tomorrow is about getting better seeding for the playoffs….and the title of course
Should be in:
Work left to do:
Texas A&M Commerce (10-3, WIS: 32, SOS: 48): No upsets all season either way, leaves them smack on the bubble. I'd say things are more than 50% to end well, but there will be sweating until the end. TAMC was burnt badly last season (missing the playoffs as 32nd due to a bid stealer).
MIAA
Part of the problem of this conference was it's canibalism, which you can only afford when having a lot of OOC wins; the MIAA did not. In this sense Pittsburg State beating Truman really hurt the conference today, as nobody was left with a real shot at an at large (I took Truman State off the board). Moreover, while probably inconsequential, it did put NW Missouri back into the CCG.
Should be in:
NW Missouri State (12-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 121): Due to results elsewhere are getting a shot at the conference championship after all. A loss should be sustainable unless it is really bad and weird things happen all around.
Work left to do:
Potential Bid stealers:
Washburn-Topeka (10-3, WIS: 54 SOS: 144): Turned todays game vs Lock haven around, but still too far away to get an at-large. But I have to say while WB Topeka is the underdog in the CCG, it is not that unlikely that they pull it off to the detriment of bubble teams everywhere.
NCC
Maybe if St. Cloud could sneak in, this conference could finally be more than one bid.
Locks:
Humboldt State (12-0)
Work to do:
St. Cloud State (10-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 60): The all deciding day has arrived, and the try at an upset will be important. It is hard to predict whether ending up 10-4 would leave them on the wrong side. I’d still say yes, but it does not necessarily have to.
NE-10
Most likely this seasons NE 10 will be a one bid league. That is sad.
Bryant (12-1)
Work to do:
Need help to get an at large:
Long Island (9-4, WIS: 37, SOS: 51): Now just waiting, but it is not looking particularly good.
Potential Bid stealers:
Stonehill (10-3, WIS: 36, SOS: 99): Despite a good win today, they need to win the conference, as 10-4 is not going to be good enough. Likely to still get into the top 32 with winning the conference, not that it matters how you got your bid.
NSIC
Going into the last day and the question of whether there will be 1 or up to three teams in the playoffs remains.
Locks:
Minnesota Crookston (12-1).
Should be in:
Work left to do:
Northern State (10-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 54): Another game that was not as clear as it should have been. Losing in the CCG would likely leave them square on the bubble, potentially bad side. Winning the conference is the safe play.
West Virginia State (10-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 52): A case example, of how winning the division is not necessarily always advantegous, as they are actually in the slightly better position than Northern. That said, northern has things in its own hands, while WVSC does not. If things go wrong and there is one or two bid stealers, and a few upsets, well then they may be out of luck.
PSAC
The revenge of the Slip lord is still playng in theaters across the PSAC and in the final episode he will attack ESUP who got elected to represent the east on the last day. The over / under for how many teams make it in is currently 5,5 .
Locks:
Slippery Rock (12-1), Millersville (9-4), Edinboro (10-2)
Should be in:
East Stroudsburg (11-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 96): It was a nice win today, and due to Slippery Rocks massive record and good SOS I don’t think they’d fall far with a loss in the CCG. Unless there is massive carnage this should all end well… and there is the shot at a conference championship.
Work left to do:
Kutztown (11-2, WIS: 29, SOS: 127): Kutztown failed to put their problems to bed with todays clear loss to ESUP. Their SOS is still as horrible as it can be in the PSAC, and nobody can guarantee, that they will not be overtaken by bid stealers and weirdness of former foes, but I would be cautiously optimistic. That said, if they make it in, this is likely to be a very unlucky 8 or 7 seed for whoever draws it.
Indiana (9-4, WIS: 33, SOS: 22): That loss to SR represents a missed opportunity, despite Indiana barely falling in the WIS ranking. One Indiana may come to regret, as they are now square on the bubble, needing one or two teams currently in the top 32 to lose and drop behind them and have no bid stealers jump ahead. I’d say it really is 50-50. A very uneasy position to be in.
Need help to get an at large:
California (7-6, WIS: 39, SOS: 5): Too many missed opportunities. The last 8 seasons no 6 loss team made it in, and even with this SOS, they need total carnage ahead of them.
RMAC
The only conference that can still boast two undefeated teams.
Lock:
Western State (13-0), Colorado Mines (13-0):
SAC
For most conferences I can write the section at half time and will only put minor changes once the results come in. The SAC has more than once stubbornly refused to let me do this, with close at the half results and brewing upsets that sometimes come in and sometimes don't. To my surprise, this might benefit the conference, since as many as 5 teams might make the playoffs and 4 is the likely number.
Could a SIM win the conference for a second time in a row? Seeing as how Newberry has slayn potential at large teams lately, one cannot exclude that Mars Hill could do it again.
Locks:
Carson-Newman (11-2, WIS: 23, SOS: 73): the advantage of missing the CCG: you cannot fall far, and thus Carson Newman is in.
Should be in:
Glennville (12-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 118): Had to go to overtime to beat WVIT. But that W keeps things quite on the good side, and things would have to go real crazy for them to miss the playoffs.
Lenoir-Rhyne (10-3, WIS: 27, SOS: 39): Despite some less than stellar moments, there were also a numberof decentish wins, probably enough to make the playoffs.
Mars Hill (10-3, WIS: 24, SOS: 14): As the WIS ranking improved rather fast over the last few days for Mars Hill, I am starting to assume that a loss in the CCG would be sustainable.
Work to do:
Newberry (9-4, WIS: 35, SOS: 14): Did what they could do in the latter parts of the season, but I don’t think the playoffs will happen unless they go decently lucky tomorrow. That said, this SIM is still within shouting distance.
SIAC
The playoff teams will likely be the same as always. It is clear now, that Quincy will be in the final, to try and repeat a third time. Kentucky Weslyan got taken off the board today.
Locks:
Quincy (13-0), Kentucky State (11-2)
Lane (10-3, WIS: 19, SOS: 10): Shoots straight up to locks, as even though it will not be high seeding it will be the playoffs for Lane.