And this is the table I wanted to post yesterday, but couldn't because I was not at full capacity. It should show a few things about the current bubble picture vs previous seasons. As I said, I suspect that WIS changed the formula a few seasons ago, so evaluate with caution

Season 96
Number of loses	Total teams	in top 32	percentage in	Cumulative		worst SOS of team in	best SOS of team not in
0	8	8	100%	8		137
1	15	15	100%	23		132
2	16	8	50%	39		76	68
3	6	1	17%	45		1	48
4	12		0%	57			17
5	17		0%	74			10
Seasons 89 to 96 (average, min, max)
0	10.3	10.3	100%	10.3		142
1	12.1	12	100%	22.4		141	139
2	11.8	7.5	64%	34.1		100	68
3	12.5	1.8	14%	46.6		68	20
4	13.6	1	7%	60.3		8	6
5	14.9	0	0%	75.1		3	1

 

 

 Day 11

There was quite a bit of Bubble carnage today, where promising teams might have lost one too many games, and others won, but saw their SOS or MOV not really go in the direction they hoped for. The latter is important too, as I used to think that 2 loss teams were almost guaranteed to be in, 3 loss teams were 50-50 and 4 loss and 5 loss teams needed awesome SOS. But the last 2 or three seasons had me rethingking it, as SOS and MOV seemed to become more important. As a consequence I kept more 5 loss teams on today or brought some back to the watch. Right now I am starting to get the feeling that there are several teams out there that might miss the playoffs this season, while only having two losses. All that said, late in the season I got the feeling that there tends to be a tendency that starts favoring record over SOS a bit more, at least for the best records (13-0 and 12-1).

 

Day 11:	Season 96						Seasons 89 to 96 (average, max, min)
Number of losses	Total teams	in top 32	percentage in top 32	Cumulative	worst SOS of team in	best SOS of team not in	Total teams on average	average of teams in top 32		Cumulative	worst SOS of a team in the top 32	best SOS of a team not in the top 32
0	8	8	100%	8	135		9.4	9.4	100.0%	9.4	144
1	11	11	100%	19	133		10.8	10.6	99.0%	20.1	133	142
2	15	11	73%	34	103	100	11.3	8.1	72.5%	31.4	113	92
3	10	2	20%	44	17	35	11.9	3.3	27.2%	43.3	82	32
4	7	0	0%	51		16	10.9	1.0	5.3%	54.1	20	4
5	15		0%	66		6	13.6	0.0	0.0%	67.8	0	1

 

 

CIAA

With the elimination of Bowie State today, his conference is a 2 bid conference again this season.

Lock: Virginia State (10-1), NCCU (10-1)

GLIAC:

No other conference has near as many “work to do” teams left on the watch. The east might send as many as three teams…or zero. None of those teams has a certain resume one way or the other. And the west also has two teams still trying to jump the bubble. I even added Michigan Tech back to the watch, due to

Locks: Ferris State (10-1)

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Findlay (8-3, WIS: 38, SOS: 69): Unsurprising as the loss to Ferris state was, that is now a 2 game losing streak with an SOS that will leave Findlay right on the bubble… if it wins out that is.

Wayne State (8-3, WIS: 47 SOS: 83): Their previous oponents let them down, and it is starting to look, like they may come out on the wrong side of the bubble right side if they win out. There are only SIMS on the schedule… a few of them are beasty though.

Ashland (8-3, WIS: 48, SOS: 75): That was the third loss, and now Ashland will be on the bubble and possibly the bad side even if they win out, particularly as the SOS is coupled to non-stellar MOVs. Winning day 13 against GVSU is a must.

Saginaw Valley State (9-2, WIS: 30, SOS: 70): It was not exactly impressive, but it was another win over an important division opponent. There are now only SIMs between SVSU and the CCG. If a third loss came in the CCG, then SVSU would likely be square on the bubble.

Grand Valley State (7-4, WIS: 44, SOS: 28): The SOS is so good that 4 losses is no disqualifier, although it is currently decreasing and getting approaching the bad side of the bubble. A fifth loss might be though to overcome.

Michigan Tech (6-5, WIS: 43, SOS: 7): It is likely gonna be a short stay on the watch as Ferris State will probably beat M-tech, but chances to come up with an even better SOS are certainly there.

GSC

There are three teams still undefeated, but the teams behind those three have now experienced some pain. That said, all that OOC beating up on cupcakes created chances for those teams to make it to the tourney. Despite winning today I eliminated West Alabama, as the SOS is just decreasing too fast for them to have a shot, particularly as MOV was not improving.

Locks: Central Arkansas (11-0)

Delta State (11-0, WIS: 12, SOS: 120), Valdosta State (11-0, WIS: 15, SOS: 129)

Despite less than stellar SOS, I moved those teams to lock status where they can focus on tomorrows division final against each other. The SOS of both teams is set to improve at least to levels where they could sustain losing both remaining games.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

North Alabama (9-2, WIS: 56, SOS: 141) Despite only two losses, with the current SOS things are mighty bubblish already. Another loss would entirely eliminate them and that is likely to happen in the last game to delta state.

Arkansas Monticello (9-2, WIS: 22, SOS: 39): As expected, UAM used up some of its error margin vs Delta State today, but did at least improve its SOS. Losing to Valdosta on day 13 would likely put them on the bubble, but I’d have to guess it would be juuuust on the right side..

LSC

The LSC only got in three last season. Could it be four or five this season? Depends on whether Commerce can hang on. West Texas got eliminated today

Locks:

SE Oklahoma Durant (11-0)

Abilene Christian (10-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 76): They could not manage a TD in the first half vs Commerce, but the D held.

Should be in:

Central Oklahoma (10-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 95): It was not an inspiring effort, but another W. Things would have to go really weird for Central not to make it. Tomorrows game vs SEO is more about conference division supremacy than the playoffs.

Work left to do:

Texas A&M Commerce (8-3, WIS: 36, SOS: 60): The D played a good game, but the O could not hurt ACU enough. Commerce is now officially square on the bubble, and will not move away from it unless it gets upset in the last two games. A bit more help to the MOV would be welcome.

Need help to get in:

Angelo State (8-3, WIS: 52, SOS: 93): That is the kind of SIM that helps the conference get more teams into the playoffs. By tomorrow night though, Angelo State will likely be eliminated by ACU.

MIAA

Still possibly a race for the autobid, but things are starting to look at least slightly better for an at large somewhere in this conference, but it would help if the teams in the race did more for their MOVs

Work left to do:

NW Missouri State (9-2, WIS: 41, SOS: 128): Sowed up the participation in the CCG today. Led Pittsburg State by one point at the half. If they lose the CCG game, there is maybe a shot at an at-large, but I wouldn’t be optimistic.

Cheyney (9-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 102): It looked okish in the end, but Cheyney also led their 2-8 Sim opponent by 1 point at the half, and keeps not building the necessary MOV with a decreasing medium SOS. Whether winning all but the CCG would be enough for an at large is hard to predict. I would tend to say no due to the conferences overall bad record tanking their SOS, and Cheyney not helping itself in the MOV department.

Need massive help to get an at large: Washburn-Topeka (7-4, WIS: 40 SOS: 16): Currently the SOS would still be in reach of a at large, but it is starting to get worse.

NCC

Same as last season: Unless Humboldt state gets upset, this is a one bid conference. The east race is interesting though.

Lock: Humboldt State (10-1).

Should be in:

Work to do:

South Dakota State (9-2, WIS: 32, SOS: 103): Probably needs the autobid, maybe with a shot if the only new loss comes in the CCG

St. Cloud State (6-5, WIS: 39, SOS: 6): The SOS surprisingly got better but is likely to get worse again.  That said, St Cloud has gotten closer to the bubble, thanks to its opponents doing well. I still think that even winning out it will not be enough, but I am a lot less certain.

NE-10

Right now this looks like a 2 or three bid conference…. Unless Stonehill manages to somehow win the conference that is.

Should be in:

Bryant (9-2, WIS: 23, SOS: 61): Even if there were another loss, Bryant would likely stay on the good side of the bubble. There really is no team left on the schedule that looks scary.

Long Island (9-2, WIS: 14, SOS: 20): Can certainly afford to lose one more game, maybe two. There is the CCG, but a second loss takes lots of imagination.

Work left to do:

Assumption (9-2, WIS: 37, SOS: 114): If they win out against all the SIMs left on the schedule, I think they will get in. Todays game showed that this is not automatically a given though.

Stonehill (7-4, WIS: 42, SOS: 27): Has to keep going, there is not really any margin for error, if they win out, it will should be close, but will likely not quite be enough.

 

NSIC

The picture in the NSIC is starting to clear up. It is one team in, and three trying to get there.

Locks:

Minnesota Crookston (11-0): 

Should be in:

Northern State (9-2, WIS: 16, SOS: 15): An important win today, that put Northern State in the drivers seat in the south, and allows for some margin of error that they are unlikely to need.

Work left to do:

West Virginia State (9-2, WIS: 27, SOS: 72): It is no shame to lose to a team like northern State, but it does mean, that WV state better avoid upsets vs Wayne state and Concordia, unless they want to find them selves square on the bubble.

Minnesota Duluth (8-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 35): IF they win out, their current SOS would probably be good enough. But it might decrease, and put Duluth right on the bubble.

Need massive help to get an at large:

Wayne State (7-4, WIS: 58, SOS: 74): I don’t really see it. Certainly need to pull the upset over WV state, in order to even remotely remain in the conversation.

PSAC

Is the PSAC still the deepest conference in division II? Yes. Will it get 7 teams into the playoffs again…it is starting to get less and less likely. Particularly in the West it looks more like a two out of 4 race.

Locks: Mansfield (10-1),  Millersville (10-1)

Slippery Rock (8-3, WIS: 7, SOS: 1): The W over California has me locking them up, as WIS indicates forgiveness for the losses, and that even 2 more losses would be no problem at all.

Should be in:

Kutztown (8-3, WIS: 21, SOS: 17):  The heroics over Slippery Rock have dissipated in two losses to Millersville and Mansfield. Despite that and despite the game left vs East Stroudsburg the SOS improved to a tune where even a loss there should not really be a problem.

Work left to do:

Indiana (8-3, WIS: 45, SOS: 111): It was a good win over Edinboro today, but that might have hurt Edinboro more than it helped Indiana, since Indiana definitely needs to repeat this feat vs Slippery Rock tomorrow if they want to go to the playoffs.

California (8-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 62): California did not leave itself much margin with its cupcake OOC schedule. The loss to SR today, means they will likely have to have the game vs Edinboro on day 13. If they win that one, they are probably just barely in, they lose it, they are likely out.

East Stroudsburg (9-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 58): Needs at least one more win over a human opponent, two to be totally sure. The number of chances for that diminished today to two, thus there is some slight heat starting to build.

Need help to get in:

Edinboro (6-5, WIS: 46, SOS: 31): That loss to Indiana hurt. And honestly, at this point, I don’t really see it anymore, because the SOS is clearly not like last seaons. That said, because they did get in last season with margin to spare despite 5 losses, I don’t dare taking them of the bubble watch yet.

 

RMAC

As always a fast story. This season, as opposed to last season, probably not a one bid conference.

Lock:

Western State (11-0)

Should be in:

Colorado Mines (10-1, WIS: 24, SOS: 110): Despite a SOS that will get worse, it will still be better than last season, and a second loss would likely be ok, and I don’t see where that could come from other than the CCG.

SAC

The number of teams with a shot at making the playoffs is shrinking fast in the SAC. It is starting to look like the best case scenario is 4, but 2 is more likely. Mars Hill won the east, but will they get into the playoffs? They certainly also could upset whoever wins the west.

Should be in:

Glennville (10-1, WIS: 13, SOS: 73): Could win the division vs WVIT tomorrow. The primary reason I did not yet lock them up is, that they might lose to WVIT and get to play Mars Hill anyway. Even if this happens and they lose that one too, they’d still probably end up on the good side of the bubble.

Work to do:

Newberry (9-2, WIS: 33, SOS: 100): What a nice win over WVIT today. Not only is Newberry still alive for the division (although it needs help), but moreover things are looking much better playoff wise. That said, losing to Lenoir-Rhyne on day 13 would put them square on the bubble, tendency bad side.

WV tech (9-2, WIS: 29, SOS: 87): This loss to Newberry wouldn’t hurt so bad, if the SOS were better, or there hadn’t been the slip up to mars Hill earlier. As it is, WV tech is currently still on the right side of the bubble, but with Glennville coming to town tomorrow, that could change in a hurry.

Mars Hill (9-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 57): SIMs are rarely impressive MOV wise and Mars Hill is no exception. But currently it keeps winning and both the record and the SOS are quite nice.  A loss in the CCG looks to probably be sustainable if the SSOS doesn’t decrease faster than forseen.

SIAC

I see exactly 3 teams making it in. we are well on our way to that point.

Locks: Quincy (11-0, WIS: 8, SOS: 65): The win over Saint Josephs locked it up for me.

Should be in:

Work to do:

Lane (11-0, WIS: 18, SOS: 132): Lane can probably, but not certainly afford to lose twice, and is thus in a good position, but not yet a “should be in”. This situation is brought on by a pretty horrible SOS. To be fair, champOU2000 scheduled up for next season.

Kentucky State (11-1, WIS:28, SOS:133): Despite winning and having a real nice record, I moved them  back to work to do, because the SOS is getting even worse than I had imagined, and the WIS ranking indicates that there would not be much forgiveness for any slip ups other than maybe in the CCG. That said I would bet on Kentucky not slipping up before the final and making it in.

 

 

 

Day 12

Honestly I am not sure I would have managed this many posts, had it not been the easter weekend. Happy easter yall by the way. As things are approaching the close of the season, I am starting to pay more and more attention to the actual WIS ranking. And at this point, if a team is not in the top 50, it needs some reaaaaal strong opponents left on the schedule to have even a smidgen of a shot at an at large.

Overview

Locks: 18

Should be in: 5

Work to do: 17

Need help: 6

Potential bid stealers with no shot at an at large: 2

CIAA

This conference is a 2 bid conference again this season.

Lock: Virginia State (11-1), NCCU (11-1)

GLIAC:

Things are finally starting to clear up in the GLIAC, and although 8 teams were decentishly close at some point, it might end up only being Ferris state that gets in. But quite a few teams are at least still within shouting distance, so it could also end being 3 or 4. None of those teams has a certain resume one way or the other. And the west also has two teams still trying to jump the bubble.

Locks: Ferris State (11-1)

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Findlay (9-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 70): After a helpful W that eliminated Wayne State, Findlay will play 0-11 Northwood tomorrow which will be bad for the SOS. Findlay is still right on the bubble but I’d tend to say the bad side.

Saginaw Valley State (10-2, WIS: 27, SOS: 83): A win over NMU away from the CCG. Currently sitting pretty, but with the expected loss in the CCG, SVSU will likely be square on the bubble, tendency good side.

Grand Valley State (8-4, WIS: 44, SOS: 24): with some help GVSU could still win the division. Despite 4 losses GVSU is also still in the playoff picture due to a pretty decent SOS. That said, GVSU needs a win tomorrow and likely some teams to fall by the wayside in order to get in.

Need help to get an at large:

Ashland (9-3, WIS: 48, SOS: 94): Despite winning I moved Ashland down here, as the mediocre SOS is coupled to non-stellar MOVs, and things are starting to look dire. Winning day 13 against GVSU is a must, and may give some of the necessary boost.

Michigan Tech (6-6, WIS: 43, SOS: 6): I don’t think I ever kept a 6 loss team on the watch, and I am not convinced… but maybe… if the SOS improves even more and there is huge carnage above.

 

GSC

Delta State won the south today and finalized the conference lineup for day 14. All that OOC beating up on cupcakes created chances for teams not among the big 3 to make it to the tourney, but only UAM looks really semi likely to take advantage.

Locks: Central Arkansas (12-0), Delta State (12-0), Valdosta State (11-1)

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Arkansas Monticello (10-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 49): Kept serve vs a SIM today, but did not help its MOV. Losing to Valdosta on day 13 would likely put them on the bubble, but I’d have to guess it would be juuuust on the right side.

Need help to get an at large:

North Alabama (10-2, WIS: 56, SOS: 141) Despite only two losses, with the current SOS things are mighty bubblish already. Despite having only two losses, the only reason I haven’t taken NAU off the watch is that there might be a significant SOS bump from tomorrows game vs Delta State. It is unlikely that it would be enough though, even if NAU were to spring what would maybe qualify as the upset of the season.

LSC

The LSC only got three teams in last season. Could it be four or five this season? Depends on whether Commerce can hang on. Angelo State lost to ACU today, and was thusly eliminated.

Locks:

SE Oklahoma Durant (12-0), Abilene Christian (11-1)

Central Oklahoma (10-2, WIS: 18, SOS: 57): Lost to SEO today. While this probably wasn’t fun in terms of conference implications, UCO still looks very good for the playoffs and kept it close enough not to take a major hit to the MOV, and I actually moved them to lock.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Texas A&M Commerce (9-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 71): Another too close for comfort first half, but another W. Commerce is officially square on the bubble, and will not move away from it unless it gets upset in the last two games. A bit more help to the MOV would be welcome.

MIAA

Still possibly a race for the autobid.  Games like NWMSs loss today confirm that view even more. At least Washburn is getting moderately closer.

Work left to do:

Cheyney (10-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 112): Whether winning all but the CCG would be enough for an at large is hard to predict and gets harder by the day.

Washburn-Topeka (8-4, WIS: 40 SOS: 18): Currently the SOS would still be in reach of an at large, but it is starting to get worse. That said, Washburn Topekas OOC oponents keep helping to keep the decrease small, and WB keeps holding serve, thus I moved them up again

Need help to get an at large, or need to steal a bid:

NW Missouri State (9-3, WIS: 41, SOS: 128): Unsure whether NWMS would’ve had a shot had it won todays game, but this slip up makes it clear: it is autobid or nothing for emoneys team. If they lose the CCG game, there is maybe a shot at an at-large, but I wouldn’t be optimistic.

NCC

This might still be a one bid conference, but at least SDSU is starting to get a bit closer to a potential at large. This likely remains a one bid conference though.

Lock: Humboldt State (11-1).

Should be in:

Work to do:

South Dakota State (10-2, WIS: 33, SOS: 120): The shot if the only new loss comes in the CCG seems to get realer. But it will definitely be close and tendentially not end well.

Need help to get an at large:

St. Cloud State (7-5, WIS: 41, SOS: 14): Helped its MOV today. The SOS started to get worse, and that will likely not change tomorrow.  I still think that even winning out it will not be enough, but am not sure enough to take them off the watch

NE-10

Right now this looks like a 2 or three bid conference…. Unless Stonehill manages to somehow win the conference that is.

Locks:

Long Island (10-2, WIS: 14, SOS: 19): I’ve seen enough, this is good enough.

Should be in:

Bryant (10-2, WIS: 22, SOS: 67): Even if there were another loss, Bryant would likely stay on the good side of the bubble. There really is no team left on the schedule that looks scary.

Work left to do:

Assumption (10-2, WIS: 36, SOS: 126): If they win out against all the SIMs left on the schedule, I think they will get in, but it will be way too close for comfort.

Need help to make an at large:

Stonehill (8-4, WIS: 42, SOS: 32): The SOS is not moving in the right direction, the bubble is slowly moving out of reach. But there is also still the shot at winning the conference.

 

NSIC

The picture in the NSIC is starting to clear up. It is one team in, and three trying to get there. Wayne State got eliminated by WVSC today.

Locks:

Minnesota Crookston (12-0): 

Northern State (10-2, WIS: 15, SOS: 36): I locked Northern up, even though their SOS took a hit today. Still, for things to go wrong one needs loads of imagination.

Should be in:

West Virginia State (10-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 63): Todays W moved them to should be in, as I’d have to assume an upset of the season somewhere for things to even have a remote chance of going wrong.

Work left to do:

Minnesota Duluth (9-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 48): Took a hit to the SOS today. If they win out, their current SOS would probably be barely good enough. Games like today also keep not improving the MOV.

PSAC

Is the PSAC still the deepest conference in division II? Yes. Will it get 7 teams into the playoffs again…Looks more like 4 to 6!! Particularly in the West it looks more like a two out of 4 race, and even East Stroudsburg in the east is wobbling as we get closer to the finish line.

Locks: Mansfield (11-1), Millersville (11-1), Slippery Rock (8-4)

Kutztown (9-3, WIS: 21, SOS: 11): If there was still any doubt, then a W over a quality team like East Stroudsburg eliminated it.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Indiana (9-3, WIS: 39, SOS: 82): whoa!!! Slippery Rock just, lost for the fourth time, and this one… well I sure didn’t see it coming. Not only did Indiana just make some playoff teams who will be drawn together with a underranked Slippery rock really unhappy. Indiana also heavily improved it’s chances at the playoffs. The crazy thing is, though: It improved its chances, but because of the SOS things are by no means certain now. Despite beating Slippery Rock, this team might not be in action come playoff time if things if not enough teams stumble!

California (9-3, WIS: 40, SOS: 95): California did not leave itself much margin with its cupcake OOC schedule. They will likely have to win the game vs Edinboro on day 13. If they win that one, they are probably square on the bubble, they lose it they are likely out.

East Stroudsburg (9-3, WIS: 29, SOS: 52): Three days ago East Stroudsburgh needed only one win in three games to get in, no real heat. Two days later the heat is on, as losing to Mansfield tomorrow would put them on the bubble, and it just might be the bad side.

Need help to get in:

Edinboro (7-5, WIS: 45, SOS: 27): Still smarting from the loss to Indiana. At this point, I don’t really see it anymore, because the SOS is clearly not like last seaons. That said, because they did get in last season with margin to spare despite 5 losses, I don’t dare taking them of the bubble watch yet. Beating California tomorrow is a must though.

 

RMAC

As always a fast story. This season, as opposed to last season, probably not a one bid conference.

Lock:

Western State (12-0)

Should be in:

Colorado Mines (11-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 118): The speed at which Colorado Mines is inching closer to “lock” status is glacial, due to the atrocity that are all of the RMACs SIM teams. But Mines IS inching closer and closer and is now pretty much there.

SAC

This was a good day for the SACs playoff perspectives, as things fell into place everywhere to increase the SACs chances at more teams.

Should be in:

Glennville (10-2, WIS: 16, SOS: 54): Failed to win the division today, but the W helped the conference probably more than it hurt Glennville, as it improved the likelihood that WV tech gets in, and Glennville can a) still win the division today and b) is not really in big playoff trouble. I am basically holding out for the win tomorrow to lock them up.

Work to do:

Newberry (10-2, WIS: 30, SOS: 101): In order to avoid bubble trouble, Newberry needs to win the game vs Lenoir-Rhyne tomorrow. Also, somehow still alive for the conference… although this is more theoretical than realistic.

WV tech (10-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 64): What a way to turn around after the loss to Newberry! In a funny twist, playoff wise WV tech is probably better of, if Glennville does not stumble tomorrow and does win the division.

Mars Hill (10-2, WIS: 28, SOS: 80): Today Mars Hill was led at the half, before winning in the second half. The game still severly dropped Mars Hills SOS from 57^th to 80ieth. SIMs are rarely impressive MOV wise and Mars Hill is no exception. But currently it keeps winning and both the record is quite nice.  A loss in the CCG looks to probably be sustainable… unless the SOS keeps dropping at the speed it did today.

SIAC

I saw exactly 3 teams making it in. But Kentucky State did some major shooting in the foot today, and is now a bubble team

Locks: Quincy (12-1)

Should be in:

Lane (11-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 110): What a comeback by Quincy, what a game!!! Despite not holding on, Lane moves up to should be in, as it was decently close and the SOS improved as forseen. By tomorrow they’ll likely be a lock.

Work to do:

Kentucky State (10-2, WIS:32, SOS:131): Losing to 6-5 SIM teams is how you write bubble trouble my friends. The SOS is still quite awful and will not get a CCG improvement. The consequence is a place square on the bubble. Kentucky State will sit on the sidelines and have to root heavily for favorites everywhere on championship day.

Potential Bid stealers:

Albany State (7-5, WIS: 47, SOS:9): not getting in unless they win the conference, and that is mighty unlikely. But the team already pulled two upsets over humans in conference.

Awesome stuff dachman.

That Quincy-Lane game was unbelievable.  It was 20-0 with 8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter and ended 50-47!  I'll tell you right now - Lane and Randy Tran are the best team and QB in D-II.  We got real lucky.

A couple of days ago I was looking at who might be the Best Player for the season. I thought in no particular order RB Jason Hogan-Quincy, RB James Phelps-Mansfield, RB James Klein-Cheyney, RB Nicholas Smith-Delta St, and QB Randy Tran-Lane. I had only 1 QB as I felt Tran was far and above the top guy. In fact I would tab him as the Best Player of the Year. 50 TD passes and no interceptions on all those passes. Has my vote. Best Team, have to disagree with you brygold. Western St, Delta St, Ferris St, Minn-Crookston and your squad Quincy could all legit be considered. Throw in Millersville, NCCU and Virginia State and those are are top candidates. But for my money the best so far is SE Oklahoma-Durant. Three teams owe their only loss to this squad while two others got 1 of two losses from SEO. WIS has it right. They may not win it all but someone is going to have to take it from them. Anybody disagree.

I agree about dachmanns team. They are going to be ending a lot of people's seasons. That being said I'm not looking forward to playing delta state tomorrow.

I don't think my team has stolen the top WIS ranking either. But as you said ranger, this is not to mean that my team is the toughest out in the playoffs. If I were a netral coach, there are about 6 or 7 teams I would like to draw even less than mine.
In terms of players I haven't looked at it enough. I think Lanes QB has so far earned the votes... that said I am very interested to see if the zero interception stat will hold up once the playoffs come around.

 Day 13

It is day 13, and this post will be both, bubble watch and conference Conference Championship  Games (CCG) preview.

It is kind of logical that the bubble watch shrinks quite a bit from day 12 to day 13. A lot of “should be in”s become “locks”, because there are no games left they could lose, and if you were outside the top 40 you better made a serious move up the board today or play a championship game tomorrow. In fact, generally if you are not in the WIS top 36 after day 13, you are not making it in unless you play on day 14, or something way out of the ordinary happens. That is even more true this season… because there are fewer than usual championship games where teams currently in the top 32 are likely to lose a game and fall out of the top 32. As a consequence I got rid of or downgraded a lot of teams that didn’t actually do anything wrong today, but whose SOS and WIS rankings just didn’t take the necessary jumps.

Overview

Locks: 25

Should be in: 3

Work to do: 8

Need help: 3

Need an autobid: 3

CCG Previews (In descending order of Bubble implications)

Long Island (12-1) vs Stonehill (9-4):

Long Island got here by performing what was probably thee comeback of the season and is now the favorite to win and approach a 3 seed ranking. Losing would probably drop them to a 5 or 6. Bubble implications: 100% For Stonehill everything is on the line here, as winning means getting to the tournament and losing means not getting in. They have about a punchers chance. Bubble teams everywhere will want them to lose, no matter if close or clear. (Stonehill played Assumption)

Cheyney vs Northwest Missouri State:

A direct match up between two teams who will likely only make the playoffs with a win. And while I have Cheyney as the slight favorite, it is really only very slight, as neither team managed to dominate their rather easy schedules. Bubble implications: 95% NW Missouri is going for the outright steal. There is an ever so slight chance that Cheyney could get in with a loss…it’s tiny though. But essentially it is winner in, loser out and the MIAA WILL keep one of those 32 spots occupied. (NWMS played Minnesota Duluth)

Quincy (13-0) vs Albany State (8-5)

No other game today is more likely to be a blow out than what is national title contender Quincy vs Sim Albany State. The difference in the first match up was more than 5 TDs. Quincys bid for a number 1 seed will likely be hampered by the record of tomorrows opponent. Bubble implications: 90% as Albany State is going for the outright steal. If I saw any way Albany State actually wins this game it’d be 100%. Yes Albany State did beat two human teams in conference, but those were not quite the quality of Quincy. Albany State played Kentucky State, Quincy played Stonehill)

Glenville (11-2) vs Mars Hill (11-2)

One of the best SIMs going up against a potential top 20 team. Glenville is likely the favorite, but lets not forget that Mars Hill was higher in the GUESS ratings and has beaten WV tech, something Busarider couldn’t manage. Glennville is probably somewhere between a 3 seed and a 6 seed. Bubble implications: 80% Well this is a decently even game, and I would say that even if Mars Hill loses, I’d say that chances are more than 50-50 that they’d remain in. Not much more than 50-50 though, and the actual score line might matter too (Glenville played Newberry and Cheyney)

Humboldt State (12-1) vs South Dakota State University (11-2):

Well, if the first game is any indication, then Humboldt is the big favorite and potentially playing for a two seed. But this is probably the last of their uncontested conference runs in a while so they better take advantage. For South Dakota this game has massive bubble implications though and bubble teams everywhere will be rooting for them not only to lose, but to get pasted so they fall out of the top 32. Bubble implications: 80% I mean it is highly probable that Humboldt wins, but the actual score line might matter as to whether SDSU falls out or not. Neither team played a team currently on the bubble.

Ferris State (12-1) vs Saginaw Valley State (11-2):

Bubble teams will be rooting for heavy favorite Ferris State. A clear loss, would put SVSU probably close to the bubble, but I don’t really see them falling out, as Ferris States strong record will likely make sure they don’t get hurt too much. Bubble implication 15% (Both teams only played bubble teams within the conference, Findlay only played Ferris State).

SE Oklahoma Durant (13-0) vs Abilene Christian (12-1):

The first game of the season was clearer than the difference really is. That said SEO is the favorite. Stakes other than the Championship: the WIS number one ranking for SEO, and the difference between a 3 or a 4 seed for ACU. Bubble implication: 3% (SEO played Washburn Topeka and Mars Hill, ACU played Commerce)

Western State of Colorado (13-0) vs Colorado Mines (12-1).

It’s the traditional David (Colorado-Mines) vs Goliath (Western State) story. If Mines should pull the upset, they could shoot up all the way to a 4 seed, or otherwise drop to a seven. Western is looking to maintain a one seed. Bubble Implications 2% (Western played Washburn Topeka and Stonehill)

 

Virginia State (12-1) vs NCCU (12-1):

Two top teams, and from a pure quality perspective probably the game of the day. The first game between them sure was a barnburner.  This is pretty much about being a one or a three seed for both of them. Bubble implication: 1% (NCCU played Commerce earlier)

Slippery Rock (9-4) vs Millersville (12-1):

Hmm it is rare that the team with the clearly better record and WIS ranking cannot really be considered the favorite, as is probably the case here. That said, Jiilins team showed vulnerability this season while Mojolads armor is without any ****** from conference play. Quality wise this is right up there with the CIAA final. SR could maybe climb back to a 2 seed or potentially drop to a four. Side note: I don’t want to play slippery Rock in the second round, so they better not end up a four! Millersville could maybe become a one seed or drop down to a three seed. Bubble implication 1% (Both teams played East Stroudsburg, Slippery Rock played Stonehill)

Minnesota Crookston (13-0) vs Northern State (11-2):

Northern State gets another shot at the conferences big dog… the first time didn’t go so well though. UMC could potentially still get the overall number one, or will be a 2 seed should they lose, Northern state could reach a 3 seed and fall to a 5 seed. Bubble implications: 0% (Both played Minnesota Duluth)

Central Arkansas (13-0) vs Delta State (13-0):

Spcbuzzard has played only one bubble team and 0 locks so far, but is safely in due to smashing what he had in front of him. He’ll go up against a proven and experienced Delta State. Appart from the trophy, the stakes are seeding. Winning or losing is probably the difference between a 2 or a 4 seed for Delta, and between a 5 or a 4 for UCA. Bubble implications  0% (UAM played both teams)

 

CIAA

This conference is a 2 bid conference again this season.

Locks: Virginia State (12-1), NCCU (12-1)

GLIAC:

Things are finally starting to clear up in the GLIAC, and although 8 teams were decentishly close at some point, It now looks like it is only Ferris state and probably SVSU getting in. I eliminated GVSU and Michigan Tech today…and even Ashland. The victory over GVSU had their WIS ranking jump…just not enough.

Locks: Ferris State (11-1)

Should be in:

Saginaw Valley State (11-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 93): I’d say they are likely in, despite the impending defeat to Ferris State, as Ferris States record likely improves SVSUs SOS and keeps SVSU from falling far. But keeping it close wouldn’t hurt, just to be sure.

Need help to get an at large:

Findlay (10-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 70): Won, but against an opponent that hurt the SOS and thus did not move forward and was moved down to needs help, because even though it could happen, Findlay does need things to go quite perfectly.

 

GSC

All that OOC beating up on cupcakes created chances for teams not among the big 3 to make it to the tourney, but only UAM looks likely to take advantage. North Alabama was eliminated today

Locks: Central Arkansas (13-0), Delta State (13-0), Valdosta State (12-1)

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Arkansas Monticello (10-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 49): Took the expected loss to Valdosta. The hit to the WIS ranking will have them sweating a good bit. Chances are probably more than 50% that they make it, though.

LSC

The LSC only got three teams in last season. Could it be four or five this season? Depends on whether Commerce can hang on.

Locks:

SE Oklahoma Durant (13-0), Abilene Christian (12-1), Central Oklahoma (11-2)

Work left to do:

Texas A&M Commerce (10-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 71): Was todays win enough? So hard to tell but I fear it might have just not been by the tiniest of smidgens. Rooting for the favorites tomorrow, as this team is among the most likely to be affect by bid stealers and losses of teams that might drop.

MIAA

Highly likely that tomorrows game is the equivalent of a Dayton first four in Basketball.

Work left to do:

Cheyney (11-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 115): Because they managed to turn Lock havens upset bid around in the second half, there maybe is the tiniest of chances, that since it would be a loss in a CCG Cheyney would not fall out of the top 32 if it lost tomorrow. But it is really tiny.

Need help to get an at large, or need to steal a bid:

Washburn-Topeka (9-4, WIS: 39 SOS: 38): Even though the SOS took a massive hit today, they won a WIS rank… but it is almost certainly too little too late.

NW Missouri State (10-3, WIS: 51, SOS: 132): It is autobid or nothing for emoneys team. If they win the CCG they will be the first bid stealer since season at least season 88, because they will not get back to the top 32.

NCC

SDSU is getting closer and closer to a potential at large. Still, this might remain a one bid conference though. St Cloud got eliminated to the WIS ranking not taking the necessary jump today.

Lock: Humboldt State (12-1).

Work to do:

South Dakota State (11-2, WIS: 32, SOS: 124): What will the punishment for the probable loss to Humboldt be? Could it do actually so much for the SOS, that SDSU remains in. Quite possible, but definitely on how other teams do tomorrow maybe even on tomorrows MOV.

NE-10

Right now this looks like a 2 bid conference…. Unless Stonehill manages to win the conference that is.

Locks:

Long Island (11-2), Bryant (11-2)

Work left to do:

Assumption (11-2, WIS: 35, SOS: 127): Changing my assessment from yesterday due to the lack of carnage above probably juuuuust on the outside looking in, but ouuff… it will be close.

Need the autobid:

Stonehill (9-4, WIS: 40, SOS: 43): They could still win the conference. If they do, their WIS ranking might move into the top 32, so it would probably not be an outright steal.

NSIC

Well, looks like the NSIC got the three teams it always expects to get in… will it get a fourth? Even money right now.

Locks:

Minnesota Crookston (13-0), Northern State (11-2),

West Virginia State (11-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 80): Moved to lock status, as no games can go wrong for them anymore

Work to do:

Minnesota Duluth (10-3, WIS: 33, SOS: 53): Finished with an SOS that is right about where 3 loss teams traditionally are 50-50. Rschaitkin will have to stay glued to the scoreboard tomorrow.

PSAC

Is the PSAC still the deepest conference in division II? Yes. Will it get 7 teams into the playoffs again…The answer is out now and it is: Nope!! It looks like it will likely only be 5 teams this season. Oh do the poor teams of the PSAC even remember how to recruit with this little money ;) Despite their win I finally found the courage to drop Edinboro, and California got dropped because of their loss.

Locks: Mansfield (11-2), Millersville (12-1), Slippery Rock (9-4), Kutztown (10-3)

Should be in:

East Stroudsburg (10-3, WIS: 29, SOS: 39): The win they desperately needed finally came today. I honestly would have thought that the quality of a win over Mansfield would have them jump a few teams in the WIS rankings, but it didn’t. But as it is, stopping the fall is probably good enough, as things would likely have to go quite heavily wrong for them to miss out.

Need help to get in:

Indiana (10-3, WIS: 38, SOS: 91): The crazy thing is that despite beating Slippery Rock, this team will likely not be in action come playoff time, because the out of conference SOS was just that horrible!

 

RMAC

As always a fast story. This season, as opposed to last season, not a one bid conference.

Locks:

Western State (13-0)

Colorado Mines (12-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 136): Despite the horrible in conference opponents other than Western State, there is really nothing that can go very wrong anymore. Any drop from a loss tomorrow will be softened by a clearly boosted SOS. In fact even if it should lose Mines might win a few spots.

SAC

Another good day for the SACs playoff perspectives, simply because nobody stumbled. It really could end up being 4 teams.

Locks:

Glennville (11-2, WIS: 17, SOS: 61): Just too far in to drop much lower than a 6 seed.

WV tech (11-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 84): Straight up to lock status.. 2 loss teams with two-digit SOSs don’t miss the playoffs.

Should be in:

Newberry (11-2, WIS: 28, SOS: 103): They were down at the half, but the second half was just what the doctor ordered. I can still imagine way that Newberry finds itself on the outside looking in, but they include some rather unlikely confluence of events.

Work to do:

Mars Hill (11-2, WIS: 27, SOS: 102): SIMs are rarely impressive MOV wise and Mars Hill is no exception. But currently it is 11-2 with at SOS that isn’t completely horrible.  A loss in the CCG looks to probably be sustainable… probably, but it is by no means certain.

SIAC

I saw exactly 3 teams making it in. But Kentucky State did some major shooting in the foot yesterday, and is now a bubble team.

Locks: Quincy (13-0)

Lane (12-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 119): As expected, a lock now.

Should be in:

Work to do:

Kentucky State (11-2, WIS: 36, SOS:137): Still smarting from yesterdays loss. Losing to 6-5 SIM teams is how you write bubble trouble my friends. The SOS was quite awful and playing a 2-11 opnonet worsened it some more, and moved Kentucky to the fringes of where bubble hope is juuust still realistic. Kentucky State will sit on the sidelines and have to root heavily for favorites everywhere on championship day.

Potential Bid stealers:

Albany State (8-5, WIS: 47, SOS:9): not getting in unless they win the conference, and that is mighty unlikely. But the team already pulled two upsets over humans in conference.

I haven't been able to figure out Minn Crookston and NCCU is always a handful even though we have a couple wins against them. Those two jump out.

Dachmann-- I always love the bubble watch each season.  I hope to someday be in the "Locks" or "Should be in" category (since I'm currently stuck in "Work to do", and have been for the past 3 seasons)

Updated the above post with the bubble watch etc.
Thanks for the flowers rschaitkin. i think you are getting closer. and btw, even though you are not playing tomorrow, I think it will be an interesting day for you.

Upset of the year? Indiana over Slippery Rock???

Viva wis Vegas ! Loving the line in the NE10 do hope that ( spreads )gets some attention next tweaking / update... Although it has added some humor at times

Posted by badaxe on 4/7/2015 6:09:00 PM (view original):
Upset of the year? Indiana over Slippery Rock???

I take it that means you'd disagree, beacuse talent wise Indiana could be seen as a solid top 20 team. Still in my mind that is a strong candidate, since they do have quite a significant talent deficit vs SR, which unquestionably is among the top 4 talent wise.
What is the upset of the season in your opinion?
Another candidate could be Albany State over Kentucky State.