Posted by bad_luck on 3/3/2015 3:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 3:07:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 3/3/2015 3:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 3:01:00 PM (view original):
Why do you insist on answering the same question over and over?

You've never answered the question. It matters to the basic argument we are having. 

If batter strikeouts don't impact team run scoring, the strikeouts are irrelevant. If the strikeouts do impact team run scoring, we should be able to see it.

How would you see it at an individual team level?

Teams that strikeout more should score less runs. Teams that strikeout less should score more runs.

Agree or disagree?

At an individual team level, it depends.  Depends on the talent level of the players in the lineup.

At a MLB-wide level, then yes.  Less strikeouts should lead to more runs.  At least, the data is showing that more strikeouts is correlating to fewer runs.

Do you agree or disagree that that's what the MLB totals by season over the past 20 years are showing?

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 3:18:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 3/3/2015 3:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 3:07:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 3/3/2015 3:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 3:01:00 PM (view original):
Why do you insist on answering the same question over and over?

You've never answered the question. It matters to the basic argument we are having. 

If batter strikeouts don't impact team run scoring, the strikeouts are irrelevant. If the strikeouts do impact team run scoring, we should be able to see it.

How would you see it at an individual team level?

Teams that strikeout more should score less runs. Teams that strikeout less should score more runs.

Agree or disagree?

At an individual team level, it depends.  Depends on the talent level of the players in the lineup.

At a MLB-wide level, then yes.  Less strikeouts should lead to more runs.  At least, the data is showing that more strikeouts is correlating to fewer runs.

Do you agree or disagree that that's what the MLB totals by season over the past 20 years are showing?

I disagree. The correlation between strikeouts and run scoring on a league level from 1990 to today is beyond weak. The coefficient is -0.20.

You realize what you're saying, right? That, on a team level, the amount of times a team strikes out doesn't matter to run scoring. All that matters is how good the hitters are.

****see how easy that was. You asked a question. I answered it.

No.  The coefficient you are referring to is from 1990.

The coefficient from 1994 to the present is -0.86.  Would you consider -0.86 strong, or "beyond weak"?

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 10:07:00 AM (view original):

Season	IP	Runs	Ks	R/9	K/9	Corr - 2014
1990	37,563.7	17,919	23,853	4.29	5.72	-0.20
1991	37,769.7	18,127	24,390	4.32	5.81	-0.31
1992	37,829.7	17,341	23,538	4.13	5.60	-0.43
1993	40,507.0	20,864	26,310	4.64	5.85	-0.75
1994	28,586.3	15,752	19,766	4.96	6.22	-0.86
1995	36,032.0	19,554	25,425	4.88	6.35	-0.86
1996	40,560.7	22,831	29,308	5.07	6.50	-0.86
1997	40,454.0	21,604	29,937	4.81	6.66	-0.85
1998	43,434.7	23,297	31,893	4.83	6.61	-0.85
1999	43,211.3	24,691	31,119	5.14	6.48	-0.85
2000	43,244.3	24,971	31,356	5.20	6.53	-0.85
2001	43,287.3	23,199	32,404	4.82	6.74	-0.88
2002	43,269.0	22,408	31,394	4.66	6.53	-0.89
2003	43,335.3	22,978	30,801	4.77	6.40	-0.89
2004	43,394.0	23,376	31,828	4.85	6.60	-0.89
2005	43,232.3	22,325	30,644	4.65	6.38	-0.88
2006	43,258.0	23,599	31,655	4.91	6.59	-0.94
2007	43,425.7	23,322	32,189	4.83	6.67	-0.92
2008	43,357.7	22,585	32,884	4.69	6.83	-0.89
2008	43,272.0	22,419	33,591	4.66	6.99	-0.83
2010	43,305.3	21,308	34,306	4.43	7.13	-0.74
2011	43,527.3	20,808	34,488	4.30	7.13	-0.58
2012	43,355.3	21,017	36,426	4.36	7.56	-0.79
2013	43,653.3	20,255	36,710	4.18	7.57	-1.00
2014	43,613.7	19,761	37,441	4.08	7.73

This.

What are the coefficients from 1994 and later?

Are they also "beyond weak"?

Boy, data really sucks when it doesn't fit your story, doesn't it?

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 12:44:00 PM (view original):
LOL.

You're so pathetic, that it's funny.

Again, who's the person here who won't agree with the data because it doesn't fit with what he "knows"?

And this.

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 3:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 10:07:00 AM (view original):

Season	IP	Runs	Ks	R/9	K/9	Corr - 2014
1990	37,563.7	17,919	23,853	4.29	5.72	-0.20
1991	37,769.7	18,127	24,390	4.32	5.81	-0.31
1992	37,829.7	17,341	23,538	4.13	5.60	-0.43
1993	40,507.0	20,864	26,310	4.64	5.85	-0.75
1994	28,586.3	15,752	19,766	4.96	6.22	-0.86
1995	36,032.0	19,554	25,425	4.88	6.35	-0.86
1996	40,560.7	22,831	29,308	5.07	6.50	-0.86
1997	40,454.0	21,604	29,937	4.81	6.66	-0.85
1998	43,434.7	23,297	31,893	4.83	6.61	-0.85
1999	43,211.3	24,691	31,119	5.14	6.48	-0.85
2000	43,244.3	24,971	31,356	5.20	6.53	-0.85
2001	43,287.3	23,199	32,404	4.82	6.74	-0.88
2002	43,269.0	22,408	31,394	4.66	6.53	-0.89
2003	43,335.3	22,978	30,801	4.77	6.40	-0.89
2004	43,394.0	23,376	31,828	4.85	6.60	-0.89
2005	43,232.3	22,325	30,644	4.65	6.38	-0.88
2006	43,258.0	23,599	31,655	4.91	6.59	-0.94
2007	43,425.7	23,322	32,189	4.83	6.67	-0.92
2008	43,357.7	22,585	32,884	4.69	6.83	-0.89
2008	43,272.0	22,419	33,591	4.66	6.99	-0.83
2010	43,305.3	21,308	34,306	4.43	7.13	-0.74
2011	43,527.3	20,808	34,488	4.30	7.13	-0.58
2012	43,355.3	21,017	36,426	4.36	7.56	-0.79
2013	43,653.3	20,255	36,710	4.18	7.57	-1.00
2014	43,613.7	19,761	37,441	4.08	7.73

This.

What are the coefficients from 1994 and later?

Are they also "beyond weak"?

Think about what your data is saying about your sample size. If you use 20 data points the coefficient is -0.86. if you use 24, the coefficient is -0.20. What a giant swing.

And 0.86 is incredibly strong, stronger than the correlation between team OBP and team RS for every season going back to 1920. That's a huge red flag that your sample size is way too small.

Unless you think strikeout totals impact run scoring more than OBP?

You won't admit it, of course. You'll just keep posting the same tiny sample of league wide numbers that me/dahs/burnsy have already dismissed.

If strikeouts matter, teams that strikeout more would see their run scoring impacted. Those teams don't see that happen, though, because an out is an out.

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 3:30:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 12:44:00 PM (view original):
LOL.

You're so pathetic, that it's funny.

Again, who's the person here who won't agree with the data because it doesn't fit with what he "knows"?

And this.

This.

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 3:29:00 PM (view original):
Boy, data really sucks when it doesn't fit your story, doesn't it?

And this.

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 3:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 3:30:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 12:44:00 PM (view original):
LOL.

You're so pathetic, that it's funny.

Again, who's the person here who won't agree with the data because it doesn't fit with what he "knows"?

And this.

This.

The answer to your question is "tecwrg."

?

Strikeouts actually positively correlate to runs if you look at team seasons from 1960 on. The correlation is very weak, so I wouldn't read too much into it but:

SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
0.303714	0.666116	0.742304	0.79912	0.821769

Teams that struck out more between 1960 and 2014 tended to score more runs. 

From 1990 on:

SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
0.053719	0.69817	0.772759	0.799988	0.833492

Posted by bad_luck on 3/3/2015 3:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 3:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 3/3/2015 10:07:00 AM (view original):

Season	IP	Runs	Ks	R/9	K/9	Corr - 2014
1990	37,563.7	17,919	23,853	4.29	5.72	-0.20
1991	37,769.7	18,127	24,390	4.32	5.81	-0.31
1992	37,829.7	17,341	23,538	4.13	5.60	-0.43
1993	40,507.0	20,864	26,310	4.64	5.85	-0.75
1994	28,586.3	15,752	19,766	4.96	6.22	-0.86
1995	36,032.0	19,554	25,425	4.88	6.35	-0.86
1996	40,560.7	22,831	29,308	5.07	6.50	-0.86
1997	40,454.0	21,604	29,937	4.81	6.66	-0.85
1998	43,434.7	23,297	31,893	4.83	6.61	-0.85
1999	43,211.3	24,691	31,119	5.14	6.48	-0.85
2000	43,244.3	24,971	31,356	5.20	6.53	-0.85
2001	43,287.3	23,199	32,404	4.82	6.74	-0.88
2002	43,269.0	22,408	31,394	4.66	6.53	-0.89
2003	43,335.3	22,978	30,801	4.77	6.40	-0.89
2004	43,394.0	23,376	31,828	4.85	6.60	-0.89
2005	43,232.3	22,325	30,644	4.65	6.38	-0.88
2006	43,258.0	23,599	31,655	4.91	6.59	-0.94
2007	43,425.7	23,322	32,189	4.83	6.67	-0.92
2008	43,357.7	22,585	32,884	4.69	6.83	-0.89
2008	43,272.0	22,419	33,591	4.66	6.99	-0.83
2010	43,305.3	21,308	34,306	4.43	7.13	-0.74
2011	43,527.3	20,808	34,488	4.30	7.13	-0.58
2012	43,355.3	21,017	36,426	4.36	7.56	-0.79
2013	43,653.3	20,255	36,710	4.18	7.57	-1.00
2014	43,613.7	19,761	37,441	4.08	7.73

This.

What are the coefficients from 1994 and later?

Are they also "beyond weak"?

Think about what your data is saying about your sample size. If you use 20 data points the coefficient is -0.86. if you use 24, the coefficient is -0.20. What a giant swing.

And 0.86 is incredibly strong, stronger than the correlation between team OBP and team RS for every season going back to 1920. That's a huge red flag that your sample size is way too small.

Unless you think strikeout totals impact run scoring more than OBP?

You won't admit it, of course. You'll just keep posting the same tiny sample of league wide numbers that me/dahs/burnsy have already dismissed.

If strikeouts matter, teams that strikeout more would see their run scoring impacted. Those teams don't see that happen, though, because an out is an out.

It's a fair point. According to the data you're insisting on, strikeouts impact run scoring just as much as OBP does. When you look at individual teams during that time period, that's obviously not true. Do you really think it is? If you don't, then thinking this way is incorrect.

There IS a small correlation, for reasons we mentioned earlier.