FWIW, Vegas has Bama as the favorite over everyone on a neutral field. 

Alabama 6/1
Mississippi State 13/2
Florida State 7/1
Mississippi 15/2
Oregon 15/2
Georgia 8/1
Michigan State 9/1
Ohio State 10/1
Auburn 12/1
TCU 20/1
Notre Dame 25/1
Baylor 33/1
Kansas State 33/1
Nebraska 40/1
Marshall 50/1
UCLA 75/1
USC 75/1
Arizona 100/1
Arizona State 100/1
Oklahoma 100/1

I don't disagree with that a whole lot.

I'd move Oregon up to 3, put GA in front of Ole Miss and drop OSU behind Auburn.   Once it gets 20/1, you're just throwing out numbers. 

Odds are based more on how they think people will bet rather then on what they think would actually happen.  I suppose since you can't actually bet on that, they are more likely to be more based on what they actually think would happen, but it is hard to say for sure.  Though I do think it is more the former, because I can't see Ohio State legitimately having 10-1 odds based on their season.  Loss at home to Va Tech, struggle at Penn St. in their last game.  Very strong DL, but overall not a great defense.  The offense has looked better of late, but really struggled against Penn St.  I would expect Auburn, Notre Dame, and maybe even TCU to beat them on a neutral field more times than not (and I'm a Buckeye fan).

I've seen a number of Alabama games, and I just don't see it with this particular team.  They have looked very average in the majority of their games.  They certainly have talent and the best coach in the game, so they could put it all together at some point, they just haven't yet.

If Ohio State wins out I think there is a good chance they would make it in, especially if they beat Michigan State fairly convincingly and if Nebraska only has 1 loss in the Big Ten title game.  They have a huge name, a lot of talent, one of the best coaches, and you could explain the loss away if you wanted to (i.e. redshirt freshman QB who wasn't supposed to even play in the year, behind a very young OL, in their first real test at night).  Va Tech is a bad loss, but if you wanted to put OSU into the four team playoff you could explain it away enough to do it.

Florida State in trouble....

I've been saying FSU doesn't look like a top 4 team for a month(or more).   But that score was big.   Could be right back in it in a few minutes.

And I was about to say "Or not" until Louisville gives it right back.   Dumbasses.

FSU still doesn't look like a top four team but they do keep winning.     With VA, Miami, BC and FL on the schedule, I don't see how they lose.   And I assume it will be Duke in the ACC championship.   They seem like a lock. 

The funny part is everyone say bama is so much better then FSU which maybe true but if look at the season so far and not counting last night game both teams had played 2 ranked teams. Bama is 1-1 and the noles are 2-0. Before you say Clemson is overrated the two ranked teams bama have played is ole miss and Texas a&m and a&m looks really overrated too.

They played West Virginia

yep. though as I have been saying basically this entire thread, they didn't look all that great against West Virginia.

The reason I did not say West Virginia was due to them not being ranked at the time they played. I was going by teams ranking at time of game.

You have to watch the game not just rely on the final score. 

Bama beat Ole Miss everywhere but on the scoreboard.    Clemson and Notre Dame beat FSU except on the scoreboard. 

If the regular season was an elimination series, only the scoreboard matters.    That wasn't how I thought the playoff selection committee would work.   However, judging from the first rankings, it appears I was wrong.