worlds can be up and down, but even more so can regions. the recruits vary so wildly in a state, you might have as much as 50% more recruits one season, than the last. when there are a couple high end schools, their # of open scholarships probably has little bearing on the # of recruits generated - its mostly the open scholarships of all the other programs that result in the # of players. so theres luck there. plus, then there is the luck of the draw. you might have 200 local recruits with 5 good ones, or 10 good ones. or you might have 300 recruits with 7.5 good ones, or 15 good ones. i think that kind of variation is very normal within HD, and it is the primary reason why i am against the severe distance penalties that make HD recruiting so regional.
of course, the luck of the draw in the quality and quantity of high end coaches around you is huge, too. i feel like in d1 recruiting, your chance of winning a championship can *easily* double if you were in a favorable environment, as opposed to an unfavorable one. i feel like thats too big an impact. of course its never 100% fair, and i dont expect it to be, but theres just way too much luck involved now.