Posted by jwendt on 12/20/2012 9:01:00 PM (view original):
The game has some inherent randomness.  The best hitter doesn't get a hit off the worst pitcher every time - the best teams win 65% of the time -- etc etc.

I'm not saying HBD should make any changes to how players develop.  I am suggesting that players making large leaps in their PROJECTED ratings, should be a random process.  There is very little evidence that any major league team is "better" at developing lower round draft picks.  Sometimes, guys like Mark Buerhle or Mike Piazza get drafted late and turn into very good players.  This is a rare thing.  I doubt very much that any rational baseball person would argue that players like these would have failed to become major leaguers if coached by another organization.

This particular sentence "There is very little evidence that any major league team is "better" at developing lower round draft picks" seems to imply that MLB teams are pretty much the same as far as developing prospects go. 

I disagree.   Shane Spencer, far from a star, said he had to fight at every level because he wasn't a high draft pick or a bonus baby.  He seems to imply that he could have easily gotten lost in the shuffle. 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/season-preview/2012/2613177.html

That's an article that was written before last season. Among other things it points out that about 100 of the roughly 1300 players on 40 man rosters were drafted in the 20 th round or later. They list some notables in this category. I didn't see a lot of common teams among those, with the possible exception if three giants pitchers. There is as heavy tilt toward relief pitchers and lumbering hitters mostly 1b

Spencer is right, teams don't give low picks much opportunity, because they don't think they are any good. If they did, they would have drafted then earlier. The guys that make it usually find some way to greatly improve in what scouts thought was possible.

Without question, there are trends that are better and drafting and there are teams that are better at player.development. But how can we define which is which? Low draft picks making it are rare. They happen when a skill or two appears where scouts thought there was none.

I guess I can't prove that any of the guys who never made it would have if they had been given more attention during their formative years.    Although, quite honestly, I believe that to be true.