All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > Wins and Losses
12/7/2012 10:31 AM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/6/2012 7:37:00 PM (view original):
I don't know, I don't think you understand it.

The LI changes depending on the situation.

I don’t have the best grasp on this particular statistic.  But because it’s a counting stat, if someone does have a high LI, they are probably more likely to have a higher WPA.  Unless the average WPA for pitchers is 0, which I’m assuming (incorrectly?) that it isn’t.

However, this is beside the point.  We aren’t arguing what’s a better statistic.  If you want to, I’d tell you that ERA is better, FIP is better, WHIP is better, K/BB is better.  I’d argue that K/9 is worse, that BB/9 is worse, that IP is worse, that GS is worse, that HBP is worse, that Balks are worse, that IBB are worse, the GB/FB ratio is worse.  By definition, a stat is not meaningless if there are other stats that actually mean less when comparing pitchers. 

We are arguing if wins can be used to compare players.  It can.  I will assume that a pitcher who is 20-10 is better than a pitcher who is 17-13.  Most of the time, I'l be right.  And I am sure that the pitcher who is 280-180 is better than the pitcher who is 240-200.  I will also assume that anyone who won 20 games pitched very well in high leverage situations.  If you isolate any statistic, you can find instances when that particular stat “lies.” If you want to say “I don’t need W-L record, it’s meaningless to me” then that’s fine, I can argue that any particular stat is meaningless when I have so many other stats at my disposal.  If this thread was "what's the value of ERA when comparing pitchers?" I could say "completely meaningless," argue that with every other stat at my disposal, I don't need it, and call you "completely retarded" (your words) when you argue you do.

12/7/2012 10:41 AM
FIP is a useless stat.
12/7/2012 10:45 AM
Posted by tecwrg on 12/7/2012 10:41:00 AM (view original):
FIP is a useless stat.
I think there's value there. I know it ignores most plays, but it seems to work pretty well in predicting future events.  

It IS a useless stat when you give me every other stat available.
12/7/2012 10:50 AM

As I previously stated, FIP is Little League.   Don't walk people, don't let people hit the ball because your fielders suck and don't give up homers because your sucky fielders can't even pick it up and throw it back in.  Calling it "advanced" is retarded and using it as a meaningful tool is a step below retarded.  

12/7/2012 10:58 AM
FIP is counter-intuitive, but seems to do a good job of measuring future performance. If someone has a 2.40 ERA and a 4.00 FIP, you can assume that more often than not, the ERA will rise over time. I would not immediately assume that the pitcher simply got lucky, however.
12/7/2012 11:01 AM
Yes, pitchers who don't walk batters, don't give up homers and strike out batters generally do OK.

Color me shocked to find this out.  Thank ye, FIP, for making this known to all.
12/7/2012 11:04 AM
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/7/2012 10:45:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 12/7/2012 10:41:00 AM (view original):
FIP is a useless stat.
I think there's value there. I know it ignores most plays, but it seems to work pretty well in predicting future events.  

It IS a useless stat when you give me every other stat available.
"It IS a useless stat when you give me every other stat available."

Isn't that essentially EXACTLY the same thing that bad_luck has been saying about W/L?  As long as he has ERA, WHIP, blah, blah, blah, then W/L adds exactly nothing?

Which is funny because around 9 months or so ago, he was preaching the merits of FIP and how wonderful it was for evaluating pitchers.
12/7/2012 11:05 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/7/2012 11:01:00 AM (view original):
Yes, pitchers who don't walk batters, don't give up homers and strike out batters generally do OK.

Color me shocked to find this out.  Thank ye, FIP, for making this known to all.
OK, then.



12/7/2012 11:08 AM
Posted by tecwrg on 12/7/2012 11:05:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/7/2012 10:45:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 12/7/2012 10:41:00 AM (view original):
FIP is a useless stat.
I think there's value there. I know it ignores most plays, but it seems to work pretty well in predicting future events.  

It IS a useless stat when you give me every other stat available.
"It IS a useless stat when you give me every other stat available."

Isn't that essentially EXACTLY the same thing that bad_luck has been saying about W/L?  As long as he has ERA, WHIP, blah, blah, blah, then W/L adds exactly nothing?

Which is funny because around 9 months or so ago, he was preaching the merits of FIP and how wonderful it was for evaluating pitchers.
I do think FIP is valuable, and we'll disagree here, but I do think it's more valuable than W/L record.  But this is the point, which has been failed to been grasped by bad_luck.   Most stats add some value, but each stat by themselves is not necessary to determine the value of a pitcher.
12/7/2012 11:09 AM
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/7/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/6/2012 7:37:00 PM (view original):
I don't know, I don't think you understand it.

The LI changes depending on the situation.

I don’t have the best grasp on this particular statistic.  But because it’s a counting stat, if someone does have a high LI, they are probably more likely to have a higher WPA.  Unless the average WPA for pitchers is 0, which I’m assuming (incorrectly?) that it isn’t.

However, this is beside the point.  We aren’t arguing what’s a better statistic.  If you want to, I’d tell you that ERA is better, FIP is better, WHIP is better, K/BB is better.  I’d argue that K/9 is worse, that BB/9 is worse, that IP is worse, that GS is worse, that HBP is worse, that Balks are worse, that IBB are worse, the GB/FB ratio is worse.  By definition, a stat is not meaningless if there are other stats that actually mean less when comparing pitchers. 

We are arguing if wins can be used to compare players.  It can.  I will assume that a pitcher who is 20-10 is better than a pitcher who is 17-13.  Most of the time, I'l be right.  And I am sure that the pitcher who is 280-180 is better than the pitcher who is 240-200.  I will also assume that anyone who won 20 games pitched very well in high leverage situations.  If you isolate any statistic, you can find instances when that particular stat “lies.” If you want to say “I don’t need W-L record, it’s meaningless to me” then that’s fine, I can argue that any particular stat is meaningless when I have so many other stats at my disposal.  If this thread was "what's the value of ERA when comparing pitchers?" I could say "completely meaningless," argue that with every other stat at my disposal, I don't need it, and call you "completely retarded" (your words) when you argue you do.

Average WPA is about 1. Average LI is also 1. Verlander's LI for 2012 was 1.03, meaning the high and low leverage situations he faced were about average. His performance in those situations, though, was significantly above average.
We are arguing if wins can be used to compare players.  It can.  I will assume that a pitcher who is 20-10 is better than a pitcher who is 17-13.  Most of the time, I'l be right.

Sometimes you'll be right. But you'll be guessing. Why guess? Of all the information you have available to compare players, what does W/L tell you that you don't get better from somewhere else?

12/7/2012 11:10 AM
Posted by tecwrg on 12/7/2012 11:05:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/7/2012 10:45:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 12/7/2012 10:41:00 AM (view original):
FIP is a useless stat.
I think there's value there. I know it ignores most plays, but it seems to work pretty well in predicting future events.  

It IS a useless stat when you give me every other stat available.
"It IS a useless stat when you give me every other stat available."

Isn't that essentially EXACTLY the same thing that bad_luck has been saying about W/L?  As long as he has ERA, WHIP, blah, blah, blah, then W/L adds exactly nothing?

Which is funny because around 9 months or so ago, he was preaching the merits of FIP and how wonderful it was for evaluating pitchers.
I was???
12/7/2012 11:10 AM
Of all the information you have available to compare players, what does W/L tell you that you don't get better from somewhere else?

Not much. That ISNT THE POINT.
12/7/2012 11:12 AM
What's the point at looking at just ERA when I can look at all the stats and determine how good the pitcher was?
12/7/2012 11:13 AM
Or FIP?  You can just look at FIP and know all you need to know.
12/7/2012 11:15 AM
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/7/2012 11:10:00 AM (view original):
Of all the information you have available to compare players, what does W/L tell you that you don't get better from somewhere else?

Not much. That ISNT THE POINT.
Ummm...that is the whole point. If W/L record doesn't tell you anything, it's useless.
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