All Forums > Hoops Dynasty Basketball > Crum > Anything D2 Thread
5/26/2013 7:54 PM
This is a packed field.  Here is my data from the last few seasons of research: 
Formula Pt Diff % favorite wins avg. pt diff sample size
1 53.85 2.62 13
2 58.33 2.08 12
3 50 -2.25 12
4 69.23 6.38 13
5 70.59 7.29 17
6 87.5 11.63 8
7 80 8.2 5
8 100 10.22 9
9 85.71 11.43 7
10 66.67 8.83 6
11 100 17.67 6
12 0 -2 1
13 50 4.5 2
14 0 0 0
15 100 18.5 2
16 100 22 2
17 100 16 1
18 0 0 0
19 100 31 1
20 100 20 1
21 0 0 0
22 0 0 0
23 100 26 1

Now on to this year's matchups:
First Round
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
4v13 Mount Olive/S.W. Baptist 18-Mount Olive  
2v15 Shippensburg St./Green Mountain 16-Shippensburg St.  
1v16 Fort Lewis/Ferris St. 15-Fort Lewis  
5v12 West Georgia/Shaw 15-West Georgia  
3v14 OK Panhandle St./USC Upstate 15-OK Panhandle St.  
3v14 Henderson St./Paine 13-Henderson St.  
2v15 Cal. St. Poly/Bluefield St 12-Cal. St. Poly  
2v15 Barry/New Haven 10-Barry  
6v11 N. Alabama/Chadron St. 8-N. Alabama  
3v14 Sonoma St./Mars Hill 8-Sonoma St.  
1v16 St. Edward's/Mercyhurst 7-St. Edward's  
8v9 St. Cloud St./St. Martin's 7-St. Cloud St.  
6v11 Bryant/Midwestern St. 7-Bryant  
3v14 Colorado St., Pueblo/Newberry 7-Colorado St., Pueblo  
4v13 Tarleton St./CSU, Stanislaus 7-Tarleton St.  
8v9 Clarion U./Mesa St. 7-Clarion U.  
1v16 St. Mary's/Livingstone 6-St. Mary's  
7v10 Emporia St./CO School of Mines 6-Emporia St.  
1v16 Drury/LIU, Southampton 6-Drury  
6v11 Lincoln/Lewis 5-Lincoln  
4v13 Bemidji St./Tampa 3-Bemidji St.  
7v10 Wilmington/N. Florida 3-Wilmington  
5v12 Arkansas Tech/Lees-McRae 3-Arkansas Tech  
4v13 Fayetteville St./Missouri, St. Louis 3-Fayetteville St.  
7v10 Cal. San Diego/Incarnate Word 3-Incarnate Word  
8v9 W. Alabama/N. Kentucky 3-N. Kentucky  
8v9 TAMU, Kingsville/Metropolitan St. 2-Metropolitan St.  
5v12 N. Greenville/MSU, Mankato 2-N. Greenville  
6v11 Ohio Valley/Humboldt St. 2-Humboldt St.  
7v10 Florida Tech/Assumption 2-Assumption  
5v12 Bellarmine/Tiffin 1-Tiffin  
2v15 Charleston/S. Arkansas 1-Charleston  


5/27/2013 9:28 AM
First/Second Round
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
4v13 Mount Olive/S.W. Baptist 18-Mount Olive 85-74 Mount Olive (1-0)
2v15 Shippensburg U./Green Mountain 16-Shippensburg U. 76-69 Shippensburg (2-0)
1v16 Fort Lewis/Ferris St. 15-Fort Lewis 95-61 Fort Lewis (3-0)
5v12 West Georgia/Shaw 15-West Georgia 74-46 West Georgia (4-0)
3v14 OK Panhandle St./USC Upstate 15-OK Panhandle St. 97-70 OK Panhandle St. (5-0)
3v14 Henderson St./Paine 13-Henderson St. 84-62 Henderson St. (6-0)
2v15 Cal. St. Poly/Bluefield St.  12-Cal. St. Poly 80-56 Cal. St. Poly (7-0)
2v15 Barry/New Haven 10-Barry 80-65 Barry (8-0)
6v11 N. Alabama/Chadron St. 8-N. Alabama       92-85 Chadron St. (8-1)
3v14 Sonoma St./Mars Hill 8-Sonoma St. 79-65 Sonoma St. (9-1)
1v16 St. Edward's/Mercyhurst 7-St. Edward's 71-51 St. Edward's (10-1)
8v9 St. Cloud St./St. Martin's 7-St. Cloud St. 65-56 St. Cloud St. (11-1)
6v11 Bryant/Midwestern St. 7-Bryant 84-55 Bryant (12-1)
3v14 Colorado St., Pueblo/Newberry 7-Colorado St., Pueblo 103-90 Colorado St., Pueblo (13-1)
4v14 Tarleton St./CSU, Stanislaus 7-Tarleton St. 71-61 Tarleton St. (14-1)
8v9 Clarion U./Mesa St. 7-Clarion U. 68-54 Clarion U. (15-1)
1v16 St. Mary's/Livingstone 6-St. Mary's 69-64 St. Mary's (16-1)
7v10 Emporia St./CO School of Mines 6-Emporia St. 77-61 Emporia St. (17-1)
1v16 Drury/LIU, Southampton 6-Drury 71-67 LIU, Southampton (17-2)
6v11 Lincoln/Lewis 5-Lincoln 101-92 Lincoln (18-2)
4v13 Bemidji St./Tampa 3-Bemidji St. 71-60 Bemidji St. (19-2)
7v10 Wilmington/N. Florida 3-Wilmington 80-68 Wilmington (20-2)
5v12 Arkansas Tech/Lees-McRae 3-Arkansas Tech 59-38 Arkansas Tech (21-2)
4v13 Fayetteville St./Missouri, St. Louis 3-Fayetteville St. 79-72 Missouri, St. Louis (21-3)
7v10 Cal. San Diego/Incarnate Word 3-Incarnate Word 73-71 Cal. San Diego (21-4)
8v9 W. Alabama/N. Kentucky 3-N. Kentucky 61-57 W. Alabama (21-5)
8v9 TAMU, Kingsville/Metropolitan St. 2-Metropolitan St. 91-60 TAMU, Kingsville (21-6)
5v12 N. Greenville/MSU, Mankato 2-N. Greenville 76-64 MSU, Mankato (21-7)
6v11 Ohio Valley/Humboldt St. 2-Humboldt St. 76-73 Humboldt St. (22-7)
7v10 Florida Tech/Assumption 2-Assumption 64-54 Florida Tech (22-8)
5v12 Bellarmine/Tiffin 1-Tiffin 70-65 Bellarmine (22-9)
2v15 Charleston/S. Arkansas 1-Charleston 95-80 Charleston (23-9)
5v4 West Georgia/Tarleton 13-West Georgia  
11v3 Chadron St./Sonoma St. 13-Sonoma St.  
1v8 Fort Lewis/W. Alabama 10-Fort Lewis  
11v3 Humboldt St./OK Panhandle St. 10-OK Panhandle St.  
7v2 Cal. San Diego/Barry 8-Barry  
12v4 MSU, Mankato/Bemidji St. 7-Bemidji St.  
5v4 Bellarmine/Mount Olive 7-Mount Olive  
16v8 LIU, Southampton/Clarion U. 6-Clarion U.  
6v3 Lincoln/Henderson St. 4-Lincoln  
1v8 St. Mary's/TAMU, Kingsville 2-St. Mary's  
7v2 Wilmington/Cal. St. Poly 2-Cal. St. Poly  
1v8 St. Edward's/St. Cloud St. 2-St. Edward's  
5v13 Arkansas Tech/Missouri, St. Louis 1-Miissouri, St. Louis  
7v2 Florida Tech/Charleston 1-Charleston  
6v3 Bryant/CO School of Mines Push  
7v2 Emporia St./Shippensburg U. Push  
 This was probably my worst round ever.  A ton of games that went slightly the other way of what I predicted
5/28/2013 6:50 PM
2nd Round/Sweet 16
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
5v4 West Georgia/Tarleton St. 13-West Georgia 86-78 West Georgia (24-9)
11v3 Chadron St./Sonoma St. 13-Sonoma St. 83-63 Sonoma St. (25-9)
1v8 Fort Lewis/W. Alabama 10-Fort Lewis 79-69 Fort Lewis (26-9)
11v3 Humboldt St./OK Panhandle St. 10-OK Panhandle St. 101-89 OK Panhandle St. (27-9)
7v2 Cal. San Diego/Barry 8-Barry 96-86 (OT) Cal. San Diego (27-10)
12v4 MSU, Mankata/Bemidji St. 7-Bemidji St. 66-53 Bemidji St. (28-10)
5v4 Bellarmine/Mount Olive 7-Mount Olive 79-63 Mount Olive (29-10)
16v8 LIU, Southampton/Clarion U. 6-Clarion U. 88-80 (OT) LIU, Southampton (29-11)
6v3 Lincoln/Henderson St. 4-Lincoln 104-82 Henderson St. (29-12)
1v8 St. Mary's/TAMU, Kingsville 2-St. Mary's 79-69 St. Mary's (30-12)
7v2 Wilmington/Cal. St. Poly 2-Cal. St. Poly 62-54 Wilmington (30-13)
1v8 St. Edward's/St. Cloud St. 2-St. Edward's 83-60 St. Edward's (31-13)
5v13 Arkansas Tech/Missouri, St. Louis 1-Missouri, St. Louis 86-57 Arkansas Tech (31-14)
7v2 Florida Tech/Charleston 1-Charleston 72-62 Charleston (32-14)
6v3 Bryant/Colorado St., Pueblo Push 88-72 Bryant (32-14-1)
7v2 Emporia St./Shippensburg U. Push 73-67 Shippensburg U. (32-14-2)
16v4 LIU, Southampton/Mount Olive 8-Mount Olive  
3v2 Sonoma St./Charleston 7-Sonoma St.  
1v5 St. Edward's/Arkansas Tech 4-St. Edward's  
1v5 Fort Lewis/West Georgia 4-West Georgia  
1v4 St. Mary's/Bemidji St. 3-Bemidji St.  
3v7 Henderson St./Wilmington 3-Henderson St.  
3v2 OK Panhandle St./Shippensburg U. 2-OK Panhandle St.  
6v7 Bryant/Cal. San Diego Push  

5/29/2013 6:38 PM
Sweet 16/Elite 8
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
16v4 LIU, Southampton/Mount Olive 8-Mount Olive 81-73 Mount Olive (33-14-2)
3v2 Sonoma St./Charleston 7-Sonoma St. 96-79 Sonoma St. (34-14-2)
1v5 St. Edward's/Arkansas Tech 4-St. Edward's 73-59 Arkansas Tech (34-15-2)
1v5 Fort Lewis/West Georgia 4-West Georgia 76-75 (OT) Fort Lewis (34-16-2)
1v4 St. Mary's/Bemidji St. 3-Bemidji St. 89-78 St. Mary's (34-17-2)
3v7 Henderson St./Wilmington 3-Henderson St. 77-59 Henderson St. (35-17-2)
3v2 OK Panhandle St./Shippensburg U. 2-OK Panhandle St. 62-61 OK Panhandle St. (36-17-2)
6v7 Bryant/Cal. San Diego Push 99-88 (OT) Cal. San Diego (36-17-3)
1v3 St. Mary's/Henderson St. 2-Henderson St.  
4v3 Mount Olive/Sonoma St. 2-Mount Olive  
5v7 Arkansas Tech/Cal. San Diego Push  
1v3 Fort Lewis/OK Panhandle St. Push  

5/30/2013 9:36 PM
Elite 8/Final 4
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
1v3 St. Mary's/Henderson St. 2-Henderson St. 83-66 Henderson St. (37-17-3)
4v3 Mount Olive/Sonoma St. 2-Mount Olive 69-56 Mount Olive (38-17-3)
5v7 Arkansas Tech/Cal. San Diego Push 69-68 Cal. San Diego (38-17-4)
1v3 Fort Lewis/OK Panhandle St. Push 81-63 Fort Lewis (38-17-5)
3v7 Henderson St./Cal. San Diego 4-Henderson St.  
1v4 Fort Lewis/Mount Olive 1-Fort Lewis  
Title Game Possibilities
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
7v1 Cal. San Diego/Fort Lewis 9-Fort Lewis  
7v4 Cal. San Diego/Mount Olive 8-Mount Olive  
3v1 Henderson St./Fort Lewis 5-Fort Lewis  
3v4 Henderson St./Mount Olive 4-Mount Olive  

6/2/2013 10:34 AM
Final 4
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
3v7 Henderson St./Cal. San Diego 4-Henderson St. 89-54 Henderson St. (39-17-5)
1v4 Fort Lewis/Mount Olive 1-Fort Lewis 72-56 Mount Olive (39-18-5)
3v4 Henderson St./Mount Olive 4-Mount Olive 64-57 Mount Olive (40-18-5)

This was my worst season as far as projections go.  I went 40-18-5 (68.97%) to the seedings 44-19 (69.84%).  Now lifetime I am 170-63-18 (72.96%) to the seedings 180-71 (71.71%).  Congratulations to Mount Olive for the win.  They were one of those great teams that just struggled to put it together in the tournament until now.
Updated Data:
Formula Pt Diff % Favorite Wins Avg Pt Diff Sample Size
1 58.33 1.71 24
2 62.5 2.17 24
3 50 0.18 22
4 65.22 5.13 23
5 74.07 9.52 27
6 75 8.94 16
7 83.33 10 18
8 88.89 9.67 18
9 90 13.9 10
10 70 9.9 10
11 100 17.08 13
12 75 12 4
13 80 11.8 5
14 66.67 8.7 3
15 100 25.2 5
16 100 16 4
17 100 16 1
18 100 11 1
19 100 31 1
20 100       20 1
21 0 0 0
22 0 0 0
23 100 26 1

6/9/2013 10:39 AM

I’m showing the way I categorize players into my rating system.  The threshold for having a championship level team has generally been around 25 points.  The rankings are:

1)      Role Player

2)      Quality Backup

3)      Capable Starter

4)      Good

5)      Star

PG) Samuel McSharry (Sr) Star

Edward Beavers (Jr) Capable Starter

Johnnie Blas (Soph) Role Player

Reggie Darling (Fr) Role Player

Edward Gibson (Fr) Role Player

Michael Kim (Fr) Role Player

SG) Travis Loudermilk (Jr) Quality Backup

PF) 
Clarence Conrad (Sr) Capable Starter

Michael Wiggins (Sr) Capable Starter

Joey Davin (Jr) Role Player

Allan Landman (Fr) Role Player

C) Jack Surratt (Jr) Capable Starter

That adds up to 25

6/9/2013 10:05 PM
How'd you like your recruiting class this go around?
6/11/2013 5:22 PM
Now that the RMAC has finally turned itself into a good conference we were wondering if any other conferences would like to set up a challenge? Something similar to the Cal and Heartland challenge each year. 
6/13/2013 6:40 PM (edited)
There are 22 teams with the grade of 25 or higher in my ranking system.  Usually I determine a team that starts at 25+ to mean they have a chance at a championship. 
1-#2-Lincoln-38
2-#1-Fort Lewis-35
3-#6-Shippensburg St.-33
4-#15-Sonoma St.-32
5(t)-#3-CSU, Stanislaus-30
5(t)-#10-Drury-30
5(t)-#16-Wilmington-30
8(t)-#4-West Georgia-28
8(t)-#5-Metropolitan St.-28
8(t)-#8-Cal. St. Poly-28
8(t)-#14-Bemidji St.-28
8(t)-#21-TAMU, Kingsville-28
13(t)-#7-LIU, Southampton-27
13(t)-#9-Lees-McRae-27
15(t)-#11-Mount Olive-26
15(t)-#25-Incarnate Word-26
17(t)-#12-OK Panhandle St.-25
17(t)-#13-CO School of Mines-25
17(t)-#22-UA, Monticello-25
17(t)-#24-Lewis-25
17(t)-NR-Assumption-25
17(t)-NR-St. Edward's-25

Edited for Backboy

The rankings are:

1)      Role Player

2)      Quality Backup

3)      Capable Starter

4)      Good

5)      Star

PG) Frantz (Sr) Good

Luebke (Sr) Good

Benjamin (Jr) Capable Starter

Oakes (Soph) Quality Backup

SG) Swan (Soph) Quality Backup

SF) Howell (Jr) Good

PF) Mingus (Jr) Capable Starter

Clement (Soph) Role Player

Moiser (Fr) Quality Backup

Armor (Sr) Good

Beresford (Sr) Capable Starter

Perkins (Fr) Role Player 

That adds up to 33

6/12/2013 8:29 PM
Posted by bk41129 on 6/9/2013 10:05:00 PM (view original):
How'd you like your recruiting class this go around?
I really like 2 of the guys I got:
Edward Gibson(#196)WE=45 
PG | 6'1" | 181 lbs. | 2.7 GPA
Glencoe HS | Glencoe, OK
PG
510
Preferences
Proximity Childhood Favorite
No preference Michigan

Potential
  Current
Rating
Potential     Current
Rating
Potential
Athleticism 35 Average   Perimeter 63 Low-High
Speed 70 High-High   Ball Handling 60 High-High
Rebounding 13 Low   Passing 60 Low
Defense 23 High-High   Stamina 71 Low-High
Shot Blocking 1 Low   Durability 37 Low
Low-post 10 High-High   FT Shooting   High
Allan Landman(#173)-WE=35
PF | 6'10" | 235 lbs. | 3.0 GPA
The New Hampton HS | New Hampton, NH
PF
515
Preferences
Proximity Childhood Favorite
Far from Home Tennessee St.

Potential
  Current
Rating
Potential     Current
Rating
Potential
Athleticism 38 High-High   Perimeter 23 Low
Speed 32 Average   Ball Handling 25 Average
Rebounding 65 Average   Passing 27 Average
Defense 43 High-High   Stamina 54 High
Shot Blocking 61 Low-High   Durability 61 Low
Low-post 51 High-High   FT Shooting   Average


Shouldn't be a good year.  For me i'm going to try to see if I can figure out a zone defense.  

Quote post by cbryant31 on 6/11/2013 5:22:00 PM:
Now that the RMAC has finally turned itself into a good conference we were wondering if any other conferences would like to set up a challenge? Something similar to the Cal and Heartland challenge each year. 

Great idea you all have definitely made things more difficult for me as we recruit a lot of the same states.
6/13/2013 10:11 AM
I really liked Gibson tw47, reminds me of Pete House who is currently on my team but Gibson will be better at defense. My prized recruit this year was Dirksen out of Idaho. I'm really surprised none of the California teams even attempted to battle me for him. 
Allen Dirksen 
Work ethic: 53
 

Potential
  Current
Rating
Potential     Current
Rating
Potential
Athleticism 34 High-High   Perimeter 71 High-High
Speed 54 High-High   Ball Handling 45 High-High
Rebounding 12 Average   Passing 59 Average
Defense 38 High-High   Stamina 74 Low-High
Shot Blocking 1 Low   Durability 55 High
Low-post 13 High-High   FT Shooting   Average
6/13/2013 6:29 PM
I was hoping no one else would notice Dirksen he was #1 on my list.
6/14/2013 12:11 PM
I really liked my class this year. One of the best I have ever had.
6/14/2013 7:01 PM
Posted by cbryant31 on 6/13/2013 10:11:00 AM (view original):
I really liked Gibson tw47, reminds me of Pete House who is currently on my team but Gibson will be better at defense. My prized recruit this year was Dirksen out of Idaho. I'm really surprised none of the California teams even attempted to battle me for him. 
Allen Dirksen 
Work ethic: 53
 

Potential
  Current
Rating
Potential     Current
Rating
Potential
Athleticism 34 High-High   Perimeter 71 High-High
Speed 54 High-High   Ball Handling 45 High-High
Rebounding 12 Average   Passing 59 Average
Defense 38 High-High   Stamina 74 Low-High
Shot Blocking 1 Low   Durability 55 High
Low-post 13 High-High   FT Shooting   Average
Wow.....
of 8
All Forums > Hoops Dynasty Basketball > Crum > Anything D2 Thread

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