Very interesting posts!

Thanks al

Final 4

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt Diff	Actual Score
1v3	Lincoln/Bellarmine	11-Lincoln	82-69 Lincoln (46-13-2)
2v1	Wilmington/Incarnate Word	3-Wilmington	60-58 Wilmington (47-13-2)
1v2	Lincoln/Wilmington	3-Lincoln	61-60 Lincoln (48-13-2)

 So, I ended 48-13-2(78.69%) to the seeding 47-16(74.6).  That's about the differential i'd expect so i'm happy to see that there seems to be some validity to it although it is a very small sample size (as far as games we didn't agree upon).  Here's the data so far which again has a sample size issue, but could be somewhat helpful after 4 or 5 tourneys.

Formula Pt Diff	% favorite wins	avg. pt diff	sample size
1	66.67	4.78	6
2	33.33	-6.33	3
3	66.67	0.5	6
4	83.33	10.17	6
5	77.78	7.22	9
6	100	22	4
7	100	12.75	4
8	100	10.8	5
9	66.67	6	3
10	33.33	3	3
11	100	17.75	4
12	0	0	0
13	100	15	1
14	0	0	0
15	100	5	1
16	100	21	1
17	100	16	1
18	0	0	0
19	0	0	0
20	0	0	0
21	0	0	0
22	0	0	0
23	100	26	1

I’m showing the way I categorize players into my rating system.  The threshold for having a championship level team has generally been around 25 points.  The rankings are:

1)      Role Player

2)      Quality Backup

3)      Capable Starter

4)      Good

5)      Star

PG) Jack Stevens (Sr/5) Good

Arthur Turner (Jr) Good

Sylvester Dickerson (Soph) Quality Backup

Samuel McSharry (Fr) Role Player

SF) Robert Dunn (Fr) Role Player

PF) Barry Denison (Sr) Capable Starter

John Hatch (Soph) Quality Backup

Wilfred Beamer (Jr) Quality Backup

Joseph Kearns (Soph) Quality Backup

Clarence Conrad (Fr) Role Player

Michael Wiggins (Fr) Role Player

C) Terrance Persinger (Sr) Capable Starter

That adds up to 26

There are 16 teams with the grade of 25 or higher in my ranking system.  Usually I determine a team that starts at 25+ to mean they have a chance at a championship. 

1(t)-#2-Wilmington-31

1(t)-#11-Sonoma St.-31

3-#1-CSU, Dominguez Hills-29

4(t)-#3-UA, Monticello-28

4(t)-#5-Bemidji St.-28

4(t)-#8-Mount Olive-28

7-#10-Montevallo-27

8(t)-#4-Eckerd-26

8(t)-#9-Oklahoma Panhandle St.-26

8(t)-#17-S.W. Minnesota St.-26

11(t)-#6-Fayetteville St.-25

11(t)-#7-Kuztown U.-25

11(t)-#13-Newberry-25

11(t)-#16-Shippensburg U.-25

11(t)-#18-CSU, Stanislaus-25

11(t)-NR-Lincoln-25

This year seems very balanced... Would you mind showing me how you broke down my roster?

The rankings are (for Shippensburg U.):

1)      Role Player

2)      Quality Backup

3)      Capable Starter

4)      Good

5)      Star

PG) James Reasoner (Jr) Good

William Stewart (Jr) Quality Backup (will move up by end of season)

Michael Bryant (Soph) Capable Starter (may move up by end of season)

SG) Gary Blevins (Jr) Capable Starter (may move up by end of season)

SF) Matthew Allen (Sr) Good

Scott Yates (Jr) Role Player (is literally 1 pt away from next level)

Alan Berndt (Soph) Role Player (possible but unlikely to move up)

Rodney Howell (Fr) Role Player

PF) James Richardson (Jr) Quality Backup (may move up by end of the season)

C) Alan Jude (Sr) Capable Starter (probably will move up by end of the season)

Lorenzo Armor (Fr) Role Player

William Beresford (Fr) Role Player

That adds up to 25

So, I see them in the 27-32 range by the end of the year (I’d guess at 30).
Edit:Actually that adds up to 26.  I had to go back and look through.  Luckily I can actually add and Allen must have just moved up.  Thought I was going crazy for a second.

    Conference Preview
Team Ratings

1(t). Montevallo-30

1(t). OPSU-30

3. St. Mary’s-27

4. Incarnate Word-26

5(t). Drury-25

5(t). Lincoln-25

5(t). W. Alabama-25

8. N. Alabama-23

9(t). St. Edward’s-20

9(t). Valdosta St.-20

9(t). W. Florida-20

12. Rockhurst-17

Conference Stars

PG-                 Robert Bator (Sr)-Lincoln

                        John German (Jr)-Rockhurst

                        David Gillam (Sr)-St. Edward’s

                        Adam Hodgkinson (Jr)-Incarnate Word

                        William Ritz (Sr)-Lincoln

                        Jack Stevens (Sr/5)-OPSU

                        Arthur Turner (Jr)-OPSU

                        Ralph Zirk (Jr)-Drury

SG-                 Tom Baird (Sr/5)-Montevallo

                        Roland Baker (Sr)-W. Alabama

                        David Boisvert (Sr)-St. Mary’s

                        William Reed (Sr)-Montevallo

PF-                  Nicholas Hale (Sr)-Drury

C-                    Gilbert Cremeans (Jr)-Drury

                        Chad Critchon (Sr)-St. Mary’s

                        Donald Graff (Sr)-Valdosta St.

                        Terrance Persinger (Sr)-OPSU

                        Ron Powers (Sr)-Incarnate Word

                        William Sutton (Sr)-Lincoln

Conference Superstars

PG-                 Adam Hodgkinson (Jr)-Incarnate Word

                        Jack Stevens (Sr/5)-OPSU

                        Arthur Turner (Jr)-OPSU

SG-                 Tom Baird (Sr/5)-Montevallo

                        Roland Baker (Sr)-W. Alabama

Conference stars in pictures (1st thing that comes up in google search.  Interesting that some have changed just since last season)
Robert Bator (Lincoln) 
John German (Rockhurst) 
David Gillam (St. Edward's) 
Adam Hodgkinson (Incarnate Word) 
William Ritz (Lincoln) 
Jack Stevens (OPSU) 
Arthur Turner (OPSU) 
Ralph Zirk (Drury) 
Tom Baird (Montevallo) 
Roland Baker (W. Alabama) 
David Boisvert (St. Mary's) 
William Reed (Montevallo) 
Nicholas Hale (Drury) 
Gilbert Cremeans (Drury) 
Chad Critchon (St. Mary's) 
Donald Graff (Valdosta St.) 

Cont...
Terrance Persinger (OPSU) 
Ron Powers (Incarnate Word) 
William Sutton (Lincoln) 

This is probably the hardest tournament to predict in awhile.  There's a lot of mediocre teams this year.  For instance, my team is probably a 3-4 seed talent most years but this year I got a 1 seed.  Here's the data from last year:

Formula Pt Diff	% favorite wins	avg. pt diff	sample size
1	66.67	4.78	6
2	33.33	-6.33	3
3	66.67	0.5	6
4	83.33	10.17	6
5	77.78	7.22	9
6	100	22	4
7	100	12.75	4
8	100	10.8	5
9	66.67	6	3
10	33.33	3	3
11	100	17.75	4
12	0	0	0
13	100	15	1
14	0	0	0
15	100	5	1
16	100	21	1
17	100	16	1
18	0	0	0
19	0	0	0
20	0	0	0
21	0	0	0
22	0	0	0
23	100	26	1

Here's predictions for tomorrow.  I may miss tomorrow because i'll be out of town and may not have access to anything but my phone internet wise. 

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt DIff	Actual Score
1v16	OK Panhandle St./Augusta St.	20-OK Panhandle St.
1v16	Sonoma St./Albany St.	19-Sonoma St.
2v15	CSU Dominguez Hills/Barton	15-CSU, Dominguez Hills
3v14	Wilmington/Henderson St.	13-Wilmington
4v13	Mount Olive/St. Joseph's (IN)	12-Mount Olive
2v15	Shippensburg U./LIU, Southampton	10-Shippensburg U.
3v14	S.W. Minnesota St./N.W. Nazarene	9-S.W. Minnesota St.
5v12	Cal Davis/Montana St., Billings	9-Cal Davis
1v16	CSU, Stanislaus/Assumption	9-CSU, Stanislaus
7v10	Bemidji St./Charleston	8-Bemidji St.
7v10	Fayetteville St./San Francisco St.	8-Fayetteville St.
4v13	W. Alabama/UP, Johnstown	5-W. Alabama
2v15	Bellarmine/Ferris St.	5-Bellarmine
5v12	Emporia St./W. Liberty St.	5-Emporia St.
5v12	Kutztown U./Wingate	5-Kutztown U.
5v12	St. Edward's/West Georgia	4-West Georgia
7v10	Oakland City/Cal. San Diego	4-Cal. San Diego
6v11	Barry/N. Florida	4-Barry
6v11	Montevallo/Shaw	4-Montevalo
4v13	Virginia St./Shepherd	3-Virginia St.
6v11	Incarnate Word/CSU, Los Angeles	2-CSU, Los Angeles
3v14	N. Greenville/Livingstone	2-N. Greenville
8v9	St. Mary's (TX)/St. Cloud St.	2-St. Mary's (TX)
8v9	N. Kentucky/TAMU, Kingsville	2-TAMU, Kingsville
4v13	Ohio Valley/Lynn	2-Ohio Valley
8v9	Eckerd/Lewis	1-Eckerd
2v15	W. Florida/Tiffin	1-W. Florida
1v16	UA, Monticello/Metropolitan St.	1-UA, Monticello
8v9	Lincoln/Tampa	1-Lincoln
6v11	New Haven/Catawba	Push
3v14	Drury/S. Arkansas	Push
7v10	Humboldt St./N. Alabama	Push

First/Second Rounds

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt Diff	Actual Score
1v16	OK Panhandle St./Augusta St.	20-OK Panhandle St.	93-73 OK Panhandle St. (1-0)
1v16	Sonoma St./Albany St.	19-Sonoma St.	79-48 Sonoma St. (2-0)
2v15	CSU, Dominguez Hills/Barton	15-CSU, Dominguez Hills	83-51 CSU, Dominguez Hills (3-0)
3v14	Wilmington/Henderson St..	13-Wilmington	88-82 Henderson St. (3-1)
4v13	Mount Olive/St. Joseph's (IN)	12-Mount Olive	90-88 St. Joseph's (IN) (3-2)
2v15	Shippensburg U./LIU, Southampton	10-Shippensburg U.	98-76 Shippensburg U. (4-2)
3v14	S.W. Minnesota St./N.W. Nazarene	9-S.W. Minnesota St.	72-58 S.W. Minnesota St. (5-2)
5v12	Cal. Davis/Montana St., Billings	9-Cal. Davis	102-85 Cal. Davis (6-2)
1v16	CSU, Stanislaus/Assumption	9-CSU, Stanislaus	77-66 CSU, Stanislaus (7-2)
7v10	Bemidji St./Charleston	8-Bemidji St.	67-65 Bemidji St. (8-2)
7v10	Fayetteville St./San Francisco St.	8-Fayetteville St.	84-69 Fayetteville St. (9-2)
4v13	W. Alabama/UP, Johnstown	5-W. Alabama	63-57 W. Alabama (10-2)
2v15	Bellarmine/Ferris St.	5-Bellarmine	82-76 (OT) Ferris St. (10-3)
5v12	Emporia St./W. Liberty St.	5-Emporia St.	89-83 W. Liberty St. (10-4)
5v12	Kutztown U./Wingate	5-Kutztown U.	114-69 Kutztown U. (11-4)
5v12	St. Edward's/West Georgia	4-West Georgia	87-78 West Georgia (12-4)
7v10	Oakland City/Cal. San Diego	4-Cal. San Diego	87-77 Cal. San Diego (13-4)
6v11	Barry/N. Florida	4-Barry	61-58 N. Florida (13-5)
6v11	Montevallo/Shaw	4-Montevallo	90-74 Shaw (13-6)
4v13	Virginia St./Shepherd	3-Virginia St.	74-69 Shepherd (13-7)
3v14	Incarnate Word/CSU, Los Angeles	2-CSU, Los Angeles	59-49 Incarnate Word (13-8)
3v14	N. Greenville/Livingstone	2-N. Greenville	83-60 N. Greenville (14-8)
8v9	St. Mary's (TX)/St. Cloud St.	2-St. Mary's (TX)	67-52 St. Cloud St. (14-9)
8v9	N. Kentucky/TAMU, Kingsville	2-TAMU, Kingsville	75-64 TAMU, Kingsville (15-9)
4v13	Ohio Valley/Lynn	2-Ohio Valley	72-67 Ohio Valley (16-9)
8v9	Eckerd/Lewis	1-Eckerd	71-66 Lewis (16-10)
2v15	W. Florida/Tiffin	1-W. Florida	83-80 Tiffin (16-11)
1v16	UA, Monticello/Metroploitan St.	1-UA, Monticello	81-72 UA. Monticello (17-11)
8v9	Lincoln/Tampa	1-Lincoln	80-70 Tampa (17-12)
6v11	New Haven/Catawba	Push	66-64 New Haven (17-12-1)
3v14	Drury/S. Arkansas	Push	77-73 (OT) Drury (17-12-2)
7v10	Humboldt St./N. Alabama	Push	72-82 Humboldt St. (17-12-3)
7v2	Humboldt St./CSU, Dominguez Hilla	11-CSU. Dominguez Hills
1v9	Sonoma St./Lewis	10-Sonoma St.
7v15	Bemidji St./Ferris St.	9-Bemidji St.
12v13	West Georgia/Shepherd	7-West Georgia
1v9	New Haven/S.W. Minnesota St,	6-S.W. Minnesota St.
1v9	UA, Monticello Tampa	6-UA, Monticello
11v14	Shaw/Henderson St.	6-Shaw
10v15	Cal. San Diego/Tiffin	5-Cal. San Deigo
11v3	N. Florida/Drury	5-Drury
1v9	OK Panhandle St./TAMU, Kingsville	5-OK Panhandle St.
1v9	CSU, Stanislaus/St. Cloud St.	4-CSU, Stanislaus
12v13	W. Liberty St./St. Joseph's (IN)	4-St. Joseph's (IN)
5v4	Kutztown U./Ohio Valley	3-Kutztown U.
5v4	Cal. Davis/W. Alabama	2-Cal. Davis
6v3	Incarnate Word/N. Greenville	2-Incarnate Word
7v2	Fayetteville St./Shippensburg U.	Push

Well, I knew it would be fairly unpredictable, but it was even more so than I expected.  There were two upsets that were bigger than any upset last year.  Also, I probably look a little worse since the seeding won all the push games and there was an average of 4 pt diff at the end of regulation in those games.  Anyways, I went 17-12-3(58.62%) (that's 20% less than last season if you want an example of how wide open this tournament is) to the seeding's 18-14(56.25%)

Second Round/Sweet 16

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt Diff	Actual Score
7v2	Humboldt St./CSU, Dominguez Hills	11-CSU, Dominguez Hills	76-62 CSU, Dominguez Hills (18-12-3)
1v9	Sonoma St./Lewis	10-Sonoma St.	62-51 Sonoma St. (19-12-3)
7v15	Bemidji St./Ferris St.	9-Bemidji St.	71-51 Bemidji St. (20-12-3)
12v13	West Georgia/Shepherd	7-West Georgia	60-50 Shepherd (20-13-3)
6v3	New Haven/S.W. Minnesota St.	6-S.W. Minnesota St.	85-75 (OT) S.W. Minnesota St. (21-13-3)
1v9	UA, Monticello/Tampa	6-UA, Monticello	76-70 UA, Monticello (22-13-3)
11v14	Shaw/Henderson St.	6-Shaw	97-84 Shaw (23-13-3)
10v15	Cal. San Diego/Tiffin	5-Cal. San Diego	100-92 (2OT) Cal. San Diego (24-13-3)
11v3	N. Florida/Drury	5-Drury	54-44 Drury (25-13-3)
1v9	OK Panhandle St./TAMU, Kingsville	5-OK Panhandle St.	89-79 OK Panhandle St. (26-13-3)
1v9	CSU, Stanislaus/St. Cloud St.	4-CSU, Stanislaus	67-56 CSU, Stanislaus (27-13-3)
12v13	W. Liberty St./St. Joseph's (IN)	4-St. Joseph's (IN)	84-79 W. Liberty St. (27-14-3)
5v4	Kutztown U./Ohio Valley	3-Kutztown U.	79-68 Ohio Valley (27-15-3)
5v4	Cal. Davis/W. Alabama	2-Cal. Davis	66-62 Cal. Davis (28-15-3)
6v3	Incarnate Word/N. Greenville	2-Incarnate Word	63-61 N. Greenville (28-16-3)
7v2	Fayetteville St./Shippensburg U.	Push	81-68 Shippensburg U. (28-17-3)
1v13	Sonoma St./Shepherd	16-Sonoma St.
1v12	CSU, Stanislaus/W. Liberty St.	11-CSU, Stanislaus
11v2	Shaw/CSU, Dominguez Hills	10-CSU, Dominguez Hills
3v7	N. Greenville/Bemidji St,	8-Bemidji St.
1v4	OK Panhandle St./Ohio Valley	8-OK Panhandle St.
1v5	UA, Monticello/Cal. Davis	4-UA, Monticello
3v10	S.W. Minnesota St./Cal. San Diego	3-S.W. Minnesota St.
3v2	Drury/Shippensburg U.	3-Shippensburg U.

Still continuing to be unpredictable.  I'm at 28-17-3 (62.22%) to the seedings 32-16 (66.67%).  I still think this is the worst field i've seen in years.  Probably will add to a couple more big upsets. 

Sweet 16/Elite 8

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt Diff	Actual Score
1v13	Sonoma St./Shepherd	16-Sonoma St.	91-68 Sonoma St. (29-17-3)
1v12	CSU, Stanislaus/W. Liberty St.	11-CSU, Stanislaus	86-65 CSU, Stanislaus (30-17-3)
11v2	Shaw/CSU, Dominguez Hills	10-CSU, Dominguez Hills	90-79 CSU, Dominguez Hills (31-17-3)
3v7	N. Greenville/Bemidji St.	8-Bemidji St.	80-69 Bemidji St. (32-17-3)
1v4	OK Panhandle St./Ohio Valley	8-OK Panhandle St.	83-73 OK Panhandle St. (33-17-3)
1v5	UA, Monticello/Cal. Davis	4-UA, Monticello	89-75 UA, Monticello (34-17-3)
3v10	S.W. Minnesota St./Cal. San Diego	3-S.W. Minnesota St.	74-69 S.W. Minnesota St. (35-17-3)
3v2	Drury/Shuppensburg U.	3-Shippensburg U.	82-66 Drury (35-18-3)
1v3	Sonoma St./S.W. Minnesota St.	5-Sonoma St.
1v2	OK Panhandle St./CSU, Dominguez Hills	3-CSU, Dominguez Hills
1v7	UA, Monticello/Bemidji St.	2-UA, Monticello
1v3	CSU, Stanislaus/Drury	2-CSU, Stanislaus

Kind of funny how after all these upsets there are still 4 1 seeds in the elite 8.  Also, if things go according to these predictions (I'd imagine that 3 of these 4 end up right since the pt diff is pretty low for all games) CCCA will have 3 final 4 teams.  Now i'm 35-18-3 (66.04%) to the seedings 38-18 (67.86%)

Elite 8/Final 4

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt Diff	Actual Score
1v3	Sonoma St./S.W. Minnesota St.	5-Sonoma St.	83-77 S.W. Minnesota St. (35-19-3)
1v2	OK Panhandle St./CSU, Dominguez Hills	3-CSU, Dominguez Hills	88-81 CSU, Dominguez Hills (36-19-3)
1v7	UA, Monticello/Bemidji St.	2-UA, Monticello	81-71 UA, Monticello (37-19-3)
1v3	CSU, Stanislaus/Drury	2-CSU, Stanislaus	78-63 CSU, Stanislaus (38-19-3)
1v2	CSU, Stanislaus/CSU, Dominguez Hills	6-CSU, Dominguez Hills
3v1	S.W. Minnesota St./UA, Monticello	3-UA, Monticello

Title Game Possibilities 

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt Diff	Actual Score
3v2	S.W. Minnesota St./CSU, Dominguez Hills	6-CSU, Dominguez Hills
1v1	UA, Monticello/CSU, Stanislaus	3-UA, Monticello
1v2	UA, Monticello/CSU Dominguez Hills	3-CSU, Dominguez Hills
3v1	S.W. Minnesota St./CSU, Stanislaus	Push

So, i'm 38-19-3 (66.67%) to the seeding's 40-20 (66.67%).  

Final

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt Diff	Actual Score
1v2	CSU, Stanislaus/CSU, Dominguez Hills	6-CSU, Dominguez Hills	88-74 CSU, Stanislaus (38-20-3)
3v1	S.W. Minnesota St./UA, Monticello	3-UA, Monticello	85-75 S.W. Minnesota St. (38-21-3)
3v1	S.W. Minnesota St./CSU, Stanislaus	Push	72-70 S.W. Minnesota St. (38-21-4)

So, I ended up 38-21-4 (64.41%) to the seeding's 41-22 (65.08%).  I expect to beat that most seasons, but it is harder to determine when the quality of the world is worse.  I gear my formula towards top 25 type teams and I make no distinction between a frosh who is a spot level player and a walkon.  Problem is there were a lot of those reserve type players on teams all over.  The other is that there were more sims than I've seen in awhile.  The sims are awful at gameplanning which means their pt values are inflated.  Lifetime i'm 86-34-6 (71.67%) to the seedings 87-38 (69.04%). 
Here's the current data.  Still needs larger sample size, but somewhat relevant.

Formula Pt Diff	% favorite wins	avg. pt diff	sample size
1	53.85	2.62	13
2	58.33	2.08	12
3	50	-2.25	12
4	69.23	6.38	13
5	70.59	7.29	17
6	87.5	11.63	8
7	80	8.2	5
8	100	10.22	9
9	85.71	11.43	7
10	66.67	8.83	6
11	100	17.67	6
12	0	-2	1
13	50	4.5	2
14	0	0	0
15	100	18.5	2
16	100	22	2
17	100	16	1
18	0	0	0
19	100	31	1
20	100	20	1
21	0	0	0
22	0	0	0
23	100	26	1

*I should point out that I treat overtime games as 0 pt diff but still mark who won or lost.  I just figure every other game is base 40 minutes so that should stay uniform.
Edit: I'm also thinking of adding std deviation once I get some more data.  I took a couple college stat classes, but i'm sure someone knows better than I what would be good stats I can include.