12/7/2011 7:10 PM (edited)
Posted by deathinahole on 12/7/2011 6:42:00 PM (view original):
Yes.

Some n00b is going to read this, and say "ooo, the 7th best LF in a league is worth 13% on my cap, I better get bidding!"

This will get bumped again a year from now with a further cautionary tale.

I am sorry that you were the sucker who bid for him, but I don't think less of you because of it.
You're wrong, first of all you are basing your opinions on a player who is only halfway developed... for example he has improved:

Defensively:

+7 RA
+9 GL
+7 AS
+7 AA
+25 DU
+6 HE

Offensively:

+10 CN
+3 PW
+10 LH
+7 RH
+5 BE
+5 BR

With 81 makeup, a 91 Fielding instructor and 77 Hitting coach and a $20 Mil training budget, you can safely assume that those development numbers will nearly double by the time he is done developing, he will end up being:

General & Fielding Ratings
Event Season Height Weight OV RA GL AS AA PC DU HE SP PA TP MK
Current - 5-9 167 90 84 64 62 62 9 90 77 100 51 50 81
                               

Batting & Pitching Ratings
Event Season CN PW LH RH BE BR BU PP ST CT LH RH VE GB P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Current - 100 57 100 79 73 57 71 41 20 1 5 6 3 34 44 0 0 0 0
                                         

Secondly, he can play 2B or 3B in a pinch and he was by far the best offensive player taken during the IFA period

12/7/2011 7:38 PM
Posted by deathinahole on 12/7/2011 6:52:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deanod on 12/7/2011 5:54:00 PM (view original):
it's always funny when death tries to make authoritative statements about his lol HBD opinions
Apologize! and video tape it!
"Hey guys, its Dean. I'm sorry death in a hole! And I mean it!"
12/7/2011 10:14 PM
Posted by deathinahole on 12/7/2011 6:52:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deanod on 12/7/2011 5:54:00 PM (view original):
it's always funny when death tries to make authoritative statements about his lol HBD opinions
Apologize! and video tape it!
SHOW YOUR WORK!!!!!!
12/7/2011 10:52 PM
you know death's work would be a giant lolfest, if you're not interested in seeing it that's your problem
12/7/2011 11:50 PM
That Cairo player looks like an awesome prospect to me.  If he's worth 24 mil as an IFA is debatable.  Is any IFA worth that much?  Debatable.
12/8/2011 12:05 AM
Posted by shobob on 12/7/2011 11:50:00 PM (view original):
That Cairo player looks like an awesome prospect to me.  If he's worth 24 mil as an IFA is debatable.  Is any IFA worth that much?  Debatable.
how could you possibly argue that there doesn't exist an IFA worth $24M, some ML FA's get paid more than that in a single season.
12/8/2011 12:09 AM
i mean if you're basically getting 10 seasons of a guy for a grand total of $45M or so, and his open market value is $12-15M/year,  how is it not a complete slam dunk to add him for $24M.  Even once you factor in the cost of IFA scouting and the $4M lost in transfers, you're still getting pretty sick marginal value.
12/8/2011 12:30 AM
His market value looks to be $8M for a high, and more likely the type who fades as he's not worth giving up a pick.

Because of that, he's most likely getting market value extensions in arbitration to get to the 10 years, so really you're only going to be below market for the first 6 years (with AAA delay).  Probably paying somewhere around $6-8M for those first five years.  Plus $24M.  Plus the transfer penalty, which could be argued should all go to this guy because if you put that money towards FA you wouldn't transfer, but we'll only count $4M.

So $6 to 8+24+4= $34-36M in cost

I personally don't see him getting more than $6M, so over the 6 years is $36M.  You have essentially paid free agent market value for the guy, lost games for 4 years waiting for him to progress when you could have been spending that money on Free Agents who will produce similarly.

You're not getting surplus value with this guy.
12/8/2011 7:11 AM
Posted by deanod on 12/8/2011 12:05:00 AM (view original):
Posted by shobob on 12/7/2011 11:50:00 PM (view original):
That Cairo player looks like an awesome prospect to me.  If he's worth 24 mil as an IFA is debatable.  Is any IFA worth that much?  Debatable.
how could you possibly argue that there doesn't exist an IFA worth $24M, some ML FA's get paid more than that in a single season.
I would be on the "it's worth paying that much" side of the debate  
12/8/2011 7:12 AM
I regularly try to field competitive teams while keeping a finger in the IFA market.  It can be done.
12/8/2011 7:14 AM
Posted by jonas1102 on 12/8/2011 12:30:00 AM (view original):
His market value looks to be $8M for a high, and more likely the type who fades as he's not worth giving up a pick.

Because of that, he's most likely getting market value extensions in arbitration to get to the 10 years, so really you're only going to be below market for the first 6 years (with AAA delay).  Probably paying somewhere around $6-8M for those first five years.  Plus $24M.  Plus the transfer penalty, which could be argued should all go to this guy because if you put that money towards FA you wouldn't transfer, but we'll only count $4M.

So $6 to 8+24+4= $34-36M in cost

I personally don't see him getting more than $6M, so over the 6 years is $36M.  You have essentially paid free agent market value for the guy, lost games for 4 years waiting for him to progress when you could have been spending that money on Free Agents who will produce similarly.

You're not getting surplus value with this guy.
So if he fades, resign him yourself for cheap.  Win-win.
12/8/2011 11:31 AM
Posted by jonas1102 on 12/8/2011 12:30:00 AM (view original):
His market value looks to be $8M for a high, and more likely the type who fades as he's not worth giving up a pick.

Because of that, he's most likely getting market value extensions in arbitration to get to the 10 years, so really you're only going to be below market for the first 6 years (with AAA delay).  Probably paying somewhere around $6-8M for those first five years.  Plus $24M.  Plus the transfer penalty, which could be argued should all go to this guy because if you put that money towards FA you wouldn't transfer, but we'll only count $4M.

So $6 to 8+24+4= $34-36M in cost

I personally don't see him getting more than $6M, so over the 6 years is $36M.  You have essentially paid free agent market value for the guy, lost games for 4 years waiting for him to progress when you could have been spending that money on Free Agents who will produce similarly.

You're not getting surplus value with this guy.
I think it's insanely conservative to cap his open market value at $8M.  I don't think his expectancy is quite $12-15M (those were just arbitrary figures) but he could very easily be like a .300/.365/.480 hitter with + D in LF, which is easily worth > $10M per year.  He also could be a .275/.340/.440 type which is more of a $4-5M type value, but it's wrong to cap his upside as $8M/year.
12/8/2011 3:29 PM
With an .845 OPS, in a .760 OPS environment at a corner OF spot with plus defense the best real life comp would be 2007 Nick Markakis who put up 4.3 WAR.

A replacement team puts up 48 wins, so there are 33 wins distributed per team.  Times 32 teams is 1056 wins.

$80M is the average payroll in that world, $4M for minors, so $76M per team, or $2,432M in the world.

$2,432M / 1056 wins = $2.3M per Win

$2.3M x 4.3 = $9.89M, so maybe I was low with $8M, but he shouldn't get more than $10M.
12/8/2011 4:50 PM
Posted by jonas1102 on 12/8/2011 3:29:00 PM (view original):
With an .845 OPS, in a .760 OPS environment at a corner OF spot with plus defense the best real life comp would be 2007 Nick Markakis who put up 4.3 WAR.

A replacement team puts up 48 wins, so there are 33 wins distributed per team.  Times 32 teams is 1056 wins.

$80M is the average payroll in that world, $4M for minors, so $76M per team, or $2,432M in the world.

$2,432M / 1056 wins = $2.3M per Win

$2.3M x 4.3 = $9.89M, so maybe I was low with $8M, but he shouldn't get more than $10M.

Using the ratings and comparing to what I think replacement value ratings are in HBD I get about the same WAR as jonas did.

Guesstimating his FA demands based on a projected OVR, I think you have to pay him $24M + $4M transfer cost + 0.12M minor league salary + 1.4M pre-arb major league salary + 7.5M (arb 1 + arb 2 salary)  +$36M/5 years automatic re-up.  Or about $77M for about 47 WAR (11 seasons of 4.3 WAR).  If $2.3M/WAR is the going rate in that world, you get him for about $33M less than what you would expect to pay for those WAR.

The only problem with that analysis is that I have seen LF be an easier position to fill in FA-- $2.3M/WAR is not a good deal at LF, and it's outstanding at SP.  You can get a 33-yo 2 WAR LF for $3M just about at will late in FA in all of my worlds...  and at $1.5M/WAR Cairo's about a break-even proposition.

I understand that $$/WAR is not linear, and that you pay more per WAR for genuinely good players, because you do have to amass 45-50 WAR to make the playoffs.  So the money wasn't wasted, especially given the vagaries of the FA market and the fact that he can flex to 3B in a pinch it was a good signing.  But it wasn't a killer bargain, either.

8/7/2012 2:28 PM
Posted by deathinahole on 12/7/2011 7:24:00 AM (view original):
All those for saying   Luis Cairo was a great signing at $24.1M, apologize to the poor boy.
APOLOGIZE. NOW.
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