Posted by jonas1102 on 12/29/2010 5:17:00 PM (view original):
I never did a study, but I read something about MLB that said a bad play is equal to -0.4 Runs. So that is the reason I use it. If you have actually done a study that puts it at 2/3rds, I'd definitely consider updating how I value as MLB and HBD shouldn't necessarily be the same.
As far as the timing aspect of when a play happens, you can control that with defensive replacements. Usually whichever guy doesn't pinch hit will enter the game for Snow in the late innings.
I'm still seekng ways to better quantify defensive measures, but what i'm relying on so far is a simplistic observation that in most of the seasons of most of my worlds you'll find that when looking at team average statistics, unearned runs are pretty close to 2/3rds of errors most of the time. As for plus plays, i believe i tried to extrapolate from Tango to arrive at something close enough for my purposes - but i don't have it (or my notes) handy, so i'll have to try to remember to circle back in a couple days.
By the way, do you happen to recall the MLB source, i'd be curious to see how it compares.