THOMAS NON-CONFERENCE SEASON 50
Prediction: 6-4
RPI: 38

A poor job of scheduling by me is likely to result in a subpar (by NAC standards) non-conference slate.  I do believe I will come out of non-conference play ok, but likely could be better.

Predicted Wins: St. Mary's (MN), SUNY Cortland, Mt. St. Joseph, Principia, Stevenson
Predicted Losses: Goucher, Blackburn, Connecticut
Toss Up: Brandeis, Wartburg

Only five predicted wins is at least two too few.  I should be scheduling a more intelligent slate of opponents.  I am taking a chance on three of these teams as they are Sim AI and might be a lot worse than I am anticipating.  All three are upperclass heavy so I hope they will be respectable opponents and will have above average RPI's.

I have an excuse for scheduling Connecticut.  A team as (relatively) weak as mine should not be playing a team as good as Connecticut.  But this will be the 24th consecutive season I have played Connecticut and there have been times that johnsensing was foolish to schedule me.  That's an automatic game on my schedule regardless of either school's strength.

No real excuse for scheduling Goucher or Blackburn.  I have little chance at beating either and therefore shouldn't have scheduled them.  I suspect each is top 15 in RPI, so I don't think the loss will hurt me all that much but it won't help the conference to have me lose those two games.

Hoping I at least split the games between Brandeis and Wartburg.  I'm going to be using these two as the lithmus test for how good Thomas is heading into conference play.

Okay here's the skinny on the slugs...Errrrrrr...Recruits I brought in this season:

Tony Holmes:
athleticism: limited upside
speed: limited upside
defensive fundamentals: limited upside
low post moves: limited upside
perimeter shooting: limited upside
passing: big upside
ft shooting: big upside

Eddie Fuller:
rebounding: big upside
defensive fundamentals: limited upside
low post moves: big upside
perimeter shooting: limited upside
ball handling: big upside
passing: big upside
ft shooting: big upside

Mark Parker:
athleticism: limited upside
defensive fundamentals: big upside
shot blocking: big upside
low post moves: limited upside
passing: big upside
stamina: limited upside
durability: big upside
ft shooting: big upside

David Tomlinson:
speed: limited upside
defensive fundamentals: big upside
low post moves: big upside
perimeter shooting: big upside
ball handling: limited upside
passing: limited upside
stamina: big upside
ft shooting: big upside

	School	Coach	Conf. W-L	Overall W-L	Home W-L	Road W-L	Top 25 W-L	Last 10	STRK	RPI	SOS
	#10 Castleton St.	rdb03161987	0-0	9-1	0-0	9-1	0-0	9-1	W6	28	171
	Johnson St.	bieberfever	0-0	7-3	3-2	4-1	0-0	7-3	W3	178	319
	Lasell	carlbuzz	0-0	7-3	2-2	5-1	1-1	7-3	W1	69	94
	Becker	nz00	0-0	6-4	3-1	3-3	1-4	6-4	L1	7	3
	Husson	tianyi7886	0-0	5-5	0-3	5-2	0-0	5-5	L3	93	74
	Elms	tyber90	0-0	1-9	0-4	1-5	0-3	1-9	L5	295	97

End of season #50

	School	Players	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
1.	Castleton St.	12	57	50	43	55	34	36	32	44	38	57	76	65	C+	588
2.	Becker	12	50	43	47	49	41	50	35	42	37	60	77	56	B	585
3.	Thomas	12	53	46	43	53	36	37	38	42	42	52	76	49	C+	567
4.	Mount Ida	12	41	54	38	42	32	40	38	41	45	50	79	59	C+	560
5.	Maine, Presque Isle	12	48	47	36	58	27	34	38	42	38	52	77	60	B-	557
6.	Husson	12	47	55	35	46	24	36	37	44	40	52	76	65	C+	557
7.	Maine Maritime Academy	12	48	48	33	44	24	41	43	41	35	64	78	56	B-	556
8.	Lasell	12	46	56	37	40	29	35	42	43	41	43	76	55	C	543
9.	Maine, Farmington	12	34	49	38	34	32	37	37	43	36	49	80	67	B-	536
10.	Elms	12	44	44	40	45	31	40	38	39	36	42	73	47	C+	518
11.	Salem St.	12	42	44	39	39	25	33	32	35	36	44	73	76	C+	517
12.	Johnson St.	12	44	54	32	41	24	24	39	45	45	48	75	42	C+	512

	School	Coach	Conf. W-L	Overall W-L	Home W-L	Road W-L	Top 25 W-L	Last 10	STRK	RPI	SOS
	#3 Castleton St.	rdb03161987	15-1	31-3	7-1	17-1	5-2	9-1	L1	4	10
	#8 Becker	nz00	14-2	24-8	10-2	10-4	6-7	7-3	L1	7	2
	Lasell	carlbuzz	10-6	19-11	7-5	10-4	2-7	5-5	L1	34	11
	Husson	tianyi7886	6-10	12-16	4-7	7-8	1-5	4-6	L1	99	33
	Elms	tyber90	6-10	8-20	4-8	3-11	0-9	4-6	L1	133	12
	Johnson St.	bieberfever	3-13	10-17	4-9	6-7	0-4	0-10	L11	189	68

Next yr, I'll join the fray. 

Name	Pos.	GPA	FG%	FT%	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	TOT
Joe Hall	SG	2.70	53.8	66.1	36	56	12	20	1	31	52	44	53	52	63	40	460
Jacob Smith	SF	2.74	52.9	64.3	36	41	29	24	11	19	31	45	41	60	59	31	427
Tim King	C	2.66	70.0	57.4	66	20	66	53	54	41	10	17	10	56	45	38	476
Average		2.70	58.9	62.6	46	39	35	32	22	30	31	35	34	56	55	36	454

Thomas Recruiting Season 51

Overall Grade: A-

Signing talent is probably the most important thing to do in recruiting and I feel like Thomas has been bringing in A level recruits for the most part for a while.  But you also can't recruit 12 centers and expect to win on the court.  (Or can you?)  I think the roster cohesion is something that has been lacking in the Thomas recruiting classes to a certain extent.  I've done a nice job of balancing guards, small forwards, and post players.  I've also balanced those positions so that I'm not senior heavy in guards one season with nothing the year after.  But I've done a poor job of separating the guards between distributor, scoring, and defense and I've had similar mistakes with post players.  I'm hopeful that I avoided those pitfalls with the season 51 recruiting class.  All three fit into rolls/needs that should complement the other nine already on the roster.  They seem pretty talented to boot so I'm quite pleased with the class.  I thought about giving myself an A for an overall grade; this isn't the best I could possibly do, but it is a very good effort.

John Bradley
PG | 5'10" | 178 lbs. | 2.4 GPA
East Montgomery HS | Biscoe, NC
PG - 465
Athleticism - 22 (High)
Speed - 72 (High)
Rebounding - 1 (Low)
Defense - 23 (High)
Shot Blocking - 1 (Low)
Low-post - 13 (High)
Perimeter - 33 (Low)
Ball Handling - 70
Passing - 60 (High)
Work Ethic - 49
Stamina - 63 (High)
Durability - 58 (High)
FT Shooting - 75.0% (Low)


Lee Brown
SG | 5'11" | 176 lbs. | 3.1 GPA
Stonewall HS | Stonewall, OK
SG - 445
Athleticism - 61         
Speed - 42 (High)         
Rebounding - 14 (High)         
Defense - 57 (High)         
Shot Blocking - 11 (Low)         
Low-post - 10 (High)         
Perimeter - 66 (Low)
Ball Handling - 42 (High)
Passing - 24 (High)
Work Ethic - 33
Stamina - 62 (High)
Durability - 23 (Low)
FT Shooting - 65.2% (High)


Eric Kerney
C | 6'9" | 233 lbs. | 2.8 GPA
Riverside HS | Greer, SC
C - 455
Athleticism - 60 (High)         
Speed - 16         
Rebounding - 52 (High)         
Defense - 65 (High)         
Shot Blocking - 51 (High)         
Low-post - 17 (High)         
Perimeter - 11 (High)
Ball Handling - 12 (Low)
Passing - 10 (High)
Work Ethic - 30
Stamina - 62
Durability - 69 (High)
FT Shooting - 67.6%

John Bradley: As noted in the Coaches' Corner, I feel quite fortunate to have signed John Bradley.  If not him, I don't know what my backup option was.  I wanted a true point guard and in my initial batch of scouting I couldn't find one I liked.  Or at least not one that wasn't either a D1 prospect rated in the 450-470 range and/or wasn't recruited by a Sim AI team that was a division above mine.  Bradley can't shoot, but I'm ok with that.  His athleticism probably won't be top notch starting at 22, but at least it's high potential and should finish at an acceptable level.  (No idea if it is high/low or high/high.)  Especially since the athleticism with be accompanied by a speed rating of 90+.  The ball handling is already at 70 so even though it is average potential, I'm ok with that since he'll come to campus with the #10 rated ball handling in all the NAC.  And I know the passing rating is high/high.  That's amazingly good considering he starts at 60 and as season 51 begins there isn't a single passing rating in the D3 world of 90.  (Although there is one player who is close to breaking that level, might want to keep an eye on him.)  So essentially, Bradley is a super fast guard with amazing passing skills and very good ball handling ones.  I wanted a point guard and I found one better that I would have thought reasonably possible.  On the defensive side, Bradley starts off weak, but the potential is high/high so he should be a very effective defender when that rating is combined with his speed.  One final thing to note is that while Bradley can't shoot, he might be able to score.  The low post rating starts at 13 so development is going to be slow, but he's also high/high there.  I'm guessing I won't have the equivalent to what Castleton had last season with Josh Sander who ended up being a 1st team AA player that couldn't shoot.  But maybe???  I think Sander was much more set up to do that since he was 97 ATH, 50 SPD, 48 LP at the start (and finish?) of his senior campaign and Bradley looks to have the ATH and SPD numbers switched.  But I'm likely going to play close attention to see if he can get into the paint the way Sander did and score and/or draw fouls.  If Bradley can score on the inside, he's a 75% free throw shooter that will only enhance things.

Lee Brown: Listed as a SG, he's going to be a SF.  I try to sign (and then redshirt) a SF every other season, so I've accomplished the first part by getting him to sign.  I had enough cash left over that I maybe could have guaranteed a redshirt but I was too timid to take the gamble because if he bucked the efforts, I wasn't signing anybody.  Hopefully he takes the redshirt, if not I'll try and limit his minutes as a freshman and try again next season.  As a listed guard, it's not surprising that Brown will be a guard-first SF.  And he won't be a small foward for at least a season or two.  Right now, he's a 14 REB, 11 BLK, and 10 LP player.  That's not a well balanced SF.  But while he'll never block shots, with the REB and LP being high potential categories, I think he will turn into one.  I have no idea if those are high/low or high/high but even if both are high/low, each makes it to 30 and that's what I consider minimum levels of acceptance for a SF.  While it's acceptable, I would look beyond Brown ... but not when everything else looks really, really good.  Athleticism is average potential and I don't know what type of high potential the speed rating is, but at minimum I should have a 65/65 player that will be quicker and faster than the overwhelming majority of SF's.  Mix that with a 57 defensive rating and you have yourself a good  defender -- knowing that the 57 rating is high/high and you have a true shutdown guy.  Honestly, Brown should be playing in a press defense, but he'll still be fine in my zone.  On the offensive side, the perimeter rating may be low potential, but when it starts at 66 he's already ahead of where most SF's finish.  And with the ball handling already at 42 and high potential and the passing rating at 24 and known to be high/high potential, he's going be better at most SF's for the other guard skills as well.  Guard heavy in skills, but Brown should be nicely rounded SF.  The one really concern is work ethic.  33 is not good.  It isn't terrible either and if I can get him to redshirt, I think he should be able to fill a good deal of his potential.  If he doesn't take the redshirt, I might end up "wasting" an awful lot of talent.  I'm not going to force him on the court to help boost his WE at the expense of costing Thomas wins.

Eric Kerney: I like Kerney, but he's probably the reason why I give myself an overall grade of A- instead of A.  But the problem I had with last season's recruits (in part) was that I signed two post players and neither had low post moves.  Neither does Kerney.  Yet, at least.  Kerney starts with a rating of just 17, but it is high potential.  In my scouting trip, I learned it was high/high.  That by no means guarantees he will become an inside force, but at least there is a chance of it happening.  My somewhat unusual recruiting strategy typically means that I sign players that look good from FSS but I will sign not fully knowing their potential.  And often, when I do discover that categories are high/low instead of high/high, I've put too many eggs in the basket (both in time and money) to go elsewhere.  I *think* I would have signed Kerney without knowing his low post potential, but if I had discovered it was high/low, I would have bailed on him and gone elsewhere.  Big if, but if his low post develops, I'll have a nice complement to my two post players from last season's recruiting class.  With that caveat, out of the way, there is an awful lot to like.  Atleticism is 60, rebounding is 52, defense is 65, and shot blocking is 51.  Those are all really nice numbers for an incoming recruit.  And they are all high potential.  The scouting report told me nothing about any of these skills, but even if they are all high/low, he's going to develop into a very talented player.  Normally I'd get upset with the assistant for providing me with such a worthless scouting report, but to be honest I don't care that I'm blind about all these categories since I did discover the low post is high/high.  I said he would develop into a very talented player.  That's true if he develops.  Kerney's work ethic is just 30 and that presents some questions.  I'm hoping that's a big enough number that he'll develop, just slowly.  I'm not all that worried about it.  He's never going to max out, however.  He's also high potential in perimeter and passing (scout told me that passing is high/high) but I'm not going to be able to afford to develop these categories.  At least I don't think so right now.  The other thing to note and be a bit worried about is stamina.  I don't think it is terrible, but it is only 62 with average potential.  For Thomas and its zone, I'm not too concerned.  But mixed in with the poor WE, I might end up with some problems.

MMA recruiting season 51 

	Current Rating	Potential			Current Rating	Potential
Athleticism	38	Low		Perimeter	36	High
Speed	43	High		Ball Handling	33	High
Rebounding	28	High		Passing	30	High
Defense	35	High		Stamina	59	High
Shot Blocking	14	High		Durability	63	High
Low-post	21	Low		FT Shooting		High

Season begins tonight. Mt Ida prediction. (15-15). It's going to be a long, frustrating season in Newton Centre MA.
We have one mediocre SR, a decent Jr, and a mediocre guard as veterans from the lost recruiting season back in march when I was gone for a week and only recruited the last day. I believe the curse of the average IQ's will be more frustrating than I can bear to watch. We have 4-5 good recruits from last season and 3 decent ones from this year. The conference is going to be very competetive this season and if it gets ugly for us the 8 young guns will take over. If we're going to lose anyway we might as well gain all we can. With one SR the prestige hit from no NT will simply not matter much.

we'll c......

Season #51 Team Ratings

	School	Players	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
1.	Castleton St.	12	51	49	46	49	34	38	33	40	38	49	69	56	C+	551
2.	Lasell	12	47	53	38	43	29	36	38	42	39	45	73	56	C	539
3.	Maine Maritime Academy	12	43	49	33	42	20	35	42	42	38	60	75	55	B-	533
4.	Husson	12	46	50	38	45	25	35	34	40	36	47	70	66	C	532
5.	Thomas	12	52	48	35	53	25	27	38	44	40	45	72	54	C+	531
6.	Maine, Presque Isle	12	43	42	37	51	29	34	34	35	35	59	73	58	C+	528
7.	Johnson St.	12	45	52	36	42	28	25	38	42	41	49	74	47	C+	518
8.	Mount Ida	12	41	49	41	37	30	37	34	37	39	48	71	51	C	515
9.	Salem St.	12	44	43	38	42	27	30	29	33	38	48	73	67	C+	512
10.	Becker	12	43	37	45	42	40	45	29	30	28	54	70	51	C+	512
11.	Maine, Farmington	12	39	43	39	40	31	37	29	34	31	45	75	66	C+	510
12.	Elms	12	41	41	32	46	27	27	30	33	33	39	71	43	C	463

Pre-Season Ranked Teams:

Castleton St.   #2
Thomas         #10
Lasell             #14
UMPI               #20
Johnson St    #24

Hon. Mention

#32 Becker
#40 MMA

IMHO Husson probably belongs in there @ 532,
Mt Ida @ 515... prolly not,
Becker @ 512.... we'll C....
Salem St @ 512.... prolly not.

THOMAS TEAM OUTLOOK SEASON 51

Team Offense: Flex
Team Defense: 2-3 Zone

Likely Starting Lineup, (Season 50 Stats)
PG: Keith Edgar, Sr (32 GS, 12.2 pt, 5.6 ast, 1.0 stl, 45.1% FG3)
SG: Columbus Kummer, Jr (0 GS, 4.1 pt, 36.5% FG3)
SF: Edward Hager, Sr (32 GS, 6.4 pt, 3.9 reb, 0.9 stl, 58.3% FG2)
PF: Martin Paiz, So (0 GS, 1.7 pt, 2.2 reb)
C: Donald Dunkley, Sr (0 GS, 5.5 pt, 5.4 reb, 1.2 blk)

1st guard off the bench: ???
1st post off the bench: Clinton Schweiger, Fr (redshirt)


Ok.  I'll admit it.  I'm pretty scared about this Thomas team.  I believe I scheduled appropriately, but I can't remember a roster in the past 24 seasons that has as little talent and roster depth as this team does.  I mentioned this earlier, but I'm pretty surprised I reached this point.  I've been happy with most of my recruits of late and even those that I was unhappy about I didn't think were all that bad.  But I've got a roster full of "meh" for season 51 and maybe also for season 52.  It's been pretty rare for me to force a guy into the starting lineup that wasn't ready for it but I might be doing that at two different spots this season.  It might be a bumpy ride, the good thing is that I might have the best guard in all of Allen D3 to smooth out things and I've got a pretty nifty SF that should hopefully keep things glued together.

The Thomas backcourt might not be as bad as I make it out to be.  Even if it is, Edgar is a flat out stud and he might just be good enough to make the backcourt play an overall strength.  I think he's the best D3 guard right now, and he's not close to being maxed out.  He still has normal upside for defense, perimeter shooting, ball handling, and passing.  I also don't think the speed is completely maxed out so he might be the first 90/90/90/90 SPD/PER/BH/PAS guard I've seen at the D3 level in a long time and quite confident the only one that I've ever had.  I may have sold Columbus Kummer short in the first paragraph.  He's a poor defender but has good perimeter and ball handling skills.  That should mean a good SG.  Although Kummer's athleticism is quite weak and that might prevent him from showing off the shooting and dribbling skills.  He does have plenty of room for growth, only the defense is low potential and the ball handling still has big upside.  After Kummer, I really don't know what comes next.  In terms of seniority, Arthur Leininger should be the first guard off the bench but he had a lackluster freshman season at Thomas and only developed 37 points.  Since he was signed as a "low starting point, high potential" type player, that lack of growth is especially disappointing.  Leininger still has big upside in defense, perimeter, ball handling, and passing so he might eventually be a contributor at Thomas.  He just is a long way from contributing right now.  Leninger will be ok on the defensive side but he can't dribble, pass or shoot.  John Bradley might be more talented that Leninger right now even without yet playing a game and might end up with more minutes on the season.  Bradley will be an extremely weak defender but at least he can handle the rock and find the open man on the court.  The extent to which Thomas has to lean on Leninger and Bradley will go a long way to predicting Thomas' success in season 51.

Edward Hager is one of the best SF's in the NAC and with the lack of other talent on the roster, Thomas will be leaning on him hard.  Hager wasn't asked to score much last season, but when he did shoot, he shot extremely well from inside the arc.  If he can maintain a similar percentage as his usage rate increases, Thomas is much more likely to be a factor in the NAC South race.  Hager is quite good already and still has room to go.  Hager's speed was maxed out the second he came to Waterville, ME.  But all of his other skill categories have average room for growth.  When Hager needs a blow, there is a real question as to who takes his spot in the lineup.  Dustin Wills was intended to be that player, but his tale thus far as the ultimate "low starting point, high potential" player has not been a successful one.  Thus far Wills has demonstrated true greatness on the defensive end of the court but the rest of his game is still a complete mess.  There still is hope for Wills as coaches report he still has amazing room for growth in his speed, rebounding, perimeter shooting, dribbling, and passing skills.  With three more seasons on campus, Wills still has time to turn into a decent role player.  For season 51, however, that looks to be a bit unlikely.  If Wells cannot handle the burden at the SF spot, Craig Kelley (first JUCO signing in Thomas' history last season) will be asked to fill in.  Kelley is currently a bit more rounded as a prospect and seems to have room for growth in everything other than his passing skills.  Even as a junior, Kelley still has excellent upside in both athleticism and his perimeter shooting.

In most seasons, Thomas' frontcourt would be considered a weakness but compared to the rest of the roster, the bigs will the strength for the boys in red.  After waiting patiently on the bench for three seasons, Donald Dunkley finally takes his spot in the Thomas lineup.  Dunkley won't be a star, but will be a solid contributor, especially on the defensive end.  Dunkley is mostly a finished product although he still has some room for growth in athleticism and defense.  Dunkley actually shows great potential for his perimeter shooting but whether or not that is something that the coaches let him demonstrate in games waits to be seen.  Martin Paiz will join Dunkley in the starting lineup.  The third year sophomore is probably entering the starting lineup, but perhaps the starting nod will help improve a work ethic that has been noted by the Thomas coaching staff as being the worst on the team.  Paiz will be many regards a junior version of Dunkley -- a solid player on the defensive end of the court while challenged on the offensive side.  For a sophomore, Paiz has relatively little room left to grow as a player.  Only his defensive skills are truly at their full potential but all his other core skills simply have modest room for improvement.  If Thomas really wants to get creative, Paiz does has super room for development as a guard since both his perimeter shooting and passing are high potential.  However, since Paiz lacks the work ethic to want to be a post player, it would be extremely unlikely he would want to learn a new position.  No different from the rest of the roster, when Thomas has to head to the bench the solutions are lacking.  Clinton Schweiger will be first off the bench as he begins his redshirt season.  Schweiger is currently barely passable, but coaches like the fact that he seems to have greater than average room to develop his speed, rebounding, defense, and low post moves.  Schweiger isn't an asset yet but with a bit of playing time and luck may be a good option by season's end.  When Schweiger is too winded to take the court, freshman Eric Kerney will be more than willing to step in and take his place.  Kerney comes to campus with an awful lot of talent for a freshman.  So while it is never ideal to be giving your freshman minutes, Kerney is more ready to take the court than your average wet-behind-the-ears player.

The lack of developing talent at Thomas was noticeable by most observers and the athletic director took notice as well and scheduled accordingly.  Thomas looks to be blown away in the 25th annual I-95 showdown against Connecticut but should be favored to win in the other 9 games.  Expect a non-conference record of 7-3 or 8-2 with an RPI in the 40-50 range.

Once play begins in the North Atlantic, Thomas will be considered one of the favorites in the South simply by being defending champions.  Realistically, Thomas will likely be battling Mount Ida for 3rd place in the South as both Maine Maritime Academy and Maine - Preque Isle have superior veteran rosters.

Expect Thomas' weaknesses to be exposed in NAC play but not to the point where they miss the postseason.  Most observers expect Thomas to return to the National Tournament for another season.  Expect a record of 8-8 and in most seasons a .500 record in the NAC means a team is more than qualified for the Big Dance.  Little should be expected of Thomas if then can make the NT -- simply making it with a roster that lacks much talent would be an accomplishment in itself.