Finally done with this. I hope yall enjoy the read.
12. NCC, GUESS rankings: 12th, WIS ranking after day 4: 12th , Current record: 19-41
When a conferences best GUESS ranked team is a SIM that is ranked 40ieth, you know the conference is not deep.
The favorite: Humboldt State (5-0)
Contenders: Augustana (3-2)
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: mmmhhh.. nobody actually
Humboldt State is still underranked in GUESS, due to a missed class that are now juniors. That said Humbboldt has some O-line problems. It is hard to see anyone other than Augustana with a shot at taking advantage of that though, as other conference members lines are nowhere near better and Humboldt clearly has the best skill players in the conference. Augustana is a SIM at the end of its cycle, having 21 seniors. It is a pretty even team with no particular weaknesses, and maybe that is enough to take the conference. If you just look at GUESS it is also pretty awful, that after Augustana and Humboldt there is a gap until the 90ies! Still, one might want to mention that St. Cloud State and South Dakota State recruited ok, but due to missed classes by previous coaches and cycle related issues are just not near competitive this season.
11. MIAA GUESS ranking: 11h, WIS ranking after day 4: 11th, Current record: 26-34
The conference is still improving and I have seriously thought about putting it higher. The MIAA actually has 6 teams in the GUESS top 60. The problem is, that none of them has reached the top 20 yet. But when you think about that, this might also make for some fun conference play with a lot of tight games. What it likely will not mean though, is that there will be a lot of at-large bids.
The favorite: NW Missouri State (2-3)
Contenders: Truman State (2-3), Lock Haven (4-1), Pittsburg State (2-3)
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs:, Cheyney (0-5), Missouri Southern (3-2)
NW Missouri had to replace a big departing class, yet has still the most talent. It will have to overcome some youth, particularly on the defensive side. Still, the winner of the last two seasons is the presumptive favorite, as the talent gap is wide enough that even the youth should not really play a major role. Truman State, got mostly eaten by a tough OOC schedule. For them the D is ahead of the O, which has rs sophomores at QB and RB. Lock haven made a big jump forward this season, but here too, the offense is clearly behind the defense. Pittsburg State also has an almost identical team talent to Lock haven and Truman State, same O and D. They have a tougher road to the division crown than the other south teams though.
Cheyney and Missouri Southern are two SIMs that might score a few upsets and make the conference race more interesting. SW Baptist is slightly rebuilding this season due to a big freshmen class
Top 3 regular season games:
I could have named a lot more games, as it is hard to predict which teams will be playing for the championship in the end.
1. Truman State – NW Missouri on day 10
Probably for the north
2. Truman State vs Lock Haven on day 8
Lock haven might need this one to keep winning the south in their own hands.
3. Lock Haven vs NW Missouri day 7
10. RMAC GUESS ranking 10th, WIS ranking after day 4: 9th , Current record: 22-38
The favorite: Western State (4-1)
Contenders: None
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Colorado Mines (3-2), Adams State (3-2)
Western State had some interesting OOC games, including a loss to NCCU. But nothing of worry. WSSC is still the big favorite and a national championship contender. Otherwise there is Colorado Mines, who will have to fight to make the playoffs this season, and Adams State a SIM on the good part of the cycle, also still with hope for an at large.
Top 3 regular season games:
1. Western State vs Adams State on day 9
2. Colorado Mines vs Adams State, day 7
9. NE-10 GUESS rankings: 7th, WIS ranking after day 5: 8th current record: 26-34
Long Island failed to recruit, Stonehill is now a SIM. Bryant id the favorite by default.
Top teams
The Favorite: Bryant (4-1)
Contenders: Long Island (5-0), Stonehill (3-2),
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Assumption (1-4)
Despite being younger than last season, it feels like Bryant is a bigger favorite than last season. . Long Island, already having taken SIM recruits las season, did not recruit this season, and now has below 0 depth on the lines. Stonehill, despite being a SIM got great recruiting again, and was human coached for a good time before. Talentwise this is by a small distance the best defence of the conference, but the skill positions are a good distance away from Bryants talent level. I don’t really think Assumption could beat Bryant, but maybe they could beat Stonehill.
Top 3 regular season games:
1. Bryant vs Long Island on day 10
For the east
2. Stonehill vs Long Island on day 6
3. Stonehill vs Assumption on day 13
This will likely be a conference semifinal.
8. Lone Star Conference GUESS ranking: 8th, WIS ranking after day 5: 6th current record: 26-34
My favorite conference will sadly be ranked a bit lower this season. Reasons are the less than stellar OOC record, the decreasing GUESS ranking and finally the rebuilding happening at several places.
The Favorite: Oklahoma Durant (4-1).
Contenders: Abilene Christian (4-1), Central Oklahoma (1-4)
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Texas A&M commerce (5-0)
SEO lost 19 players to graduation. That left some holes, particularly on the defense. That said, this still is clearly the most talented team and will probably win the conference. The gap is a lot smaller though.
UCO also lost 16 players, but of lesser quality. While the top talent is not far below that of ACU, there are some depth problems at quite a few positions including the lines. Thee overscheduling in OOC also means, that an at large will need very good results in conference.
The north may be a bit down this season, but the south is up.
Abilene Christian did not come unblemished out of the OOC, but is still in pretty good shape. While the D is almost as talented as SEOs, the O is not quite at that level.
Texas A&M commerce is the only undefeated team left in the conference, and with a big senior class present, this might be the season TAMC will be attacking this season,, which will be helped by the best QB in the conference. Both lines are also competitive, and generally depth is good. It is unlikely to be enough against a team like SEO, but the playoffs and maybe the division are both targets
Top 3 regular season games:
1. SEO vs Abilene Christian on day 6
This has been the final 5 seasons running
2. Texas A&M Commerce vs ACU on day 11
This game probably decides the south
3. Texas A&M Commerce vs UCO on day 7
Somehow I feel an upset coming.
7. South Atlantic Conference GUESS ranking: 4th, WIS ranking after day 5: 4th current record: 31-29
The conference has taken great strides from where it was three seasons ago. There are now 6 human coaches plus one of the best SIMs. So there is maybe not a glut of top quality, but a lot of fun depth.
The favorite: Glennville (4-1)
The Contenders: Mars Hill (4-1), Carson-Newman (4-1),
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Lenoir-Rhyne (3-2), West Virginia Tech (1-4), Newberry (1-4), Catawba (2-3)
Glennville finally won the conference again last season. The goal has to be to repeat, and get to the 3rd playoff round for the first time since 14 seasons ago. It helps that Glenvilles cross divison is easy . The biggest challenger is probably Mars Hill, the only team that has similar or even better lines and linebackers than Glennville. It is mostly an experienced squad, but QB and the other skill positions are really not impressive. With Carson Newman there is a third challenger with surprisingly good lines, and a better QB than both Mars Hill and Glennville. The weakness here is the defensive back seven.
Newberry may be a SIM, but it is the SIM with the best RBs and WRs, and the lines are likely good enough to let the skill players go to work. The depth on defense is bad though, making the defensive back seven very vulnerable. I can imagine a number of upsets, but not really the conference title. Lenoir-Rhyne had a tough OOC, and apart from two losses, there was also a nice win over Lane. With the biggest class being juniors, LR might start to get closer to the playoffs again. The primary problem will probably be, that the lines can’t really keep up with the conference brethren. Even Catawba might be good enough for a few upsets. While TE, WR and RB are not great, there is quality on D and on the lines to at least keep in games. Finally WVIT failed to recruit this season. There are no WRs, and the lines are not awesome, but this team too, could pull a few upsets.
Top 3 games:
1. Carson Newman at Mars Hill on day 11
Probably the best game in the east.
2. Newberry vs Glennville on day 13
Who knows, maybe this will still have meaning to the west.
3. Carson Newman vs Newberry on day 6
Two good teams that could use this win for their division races
6. CIAA GUESS ranking: 6th, WIS ranking after day 5: 10th, current record: 26-34
The CIAA comes off an awesome season: NCCU won the Natty, Virginia State made the final four. But behind them there remains a huge gap.
Top teams
The favorite: NCCU (5-0)
Contenders: Virginia State (4-1)
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs:
NCCU vs Virginia State will be the final again. Both teams had to replace decently sized classes, but remain really good. NCCUs new coach in particular has already gotten two good scalps in Western State and SEO.
Top 3 regular season games
1. NCCU-Virginia State, on season day 6
Almost certainly a preview of the championship game
2. WSSU vs Virginia State on season day 8
3. WSSU at NCCU on day 11
5. Northern Sun GUESS rankings: 3rd, WIS ranking after day 5: 7th, current record: 31-29
UMC is still going extremely strong. The teams behind UMC are not really managing to close in. Well, maybe northern is.
Top teams
The favorite: Minnesota Crookston, (5-0)
Contenders: Northern State (4-1)
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: West Virginia State (3-2)
UMC won it all two seasons ago, and this season they didn’t have max vision…. WIS can be weird. In any case this is a bona fide national title contender (the favorite to me) on the up part of its cycle, and despite northern State doing some things right, I would bet my money on UMC winning the conference.
Northern Sates won 4 OOC games and played one tough one: NCCU who punches in the same weight class as UMC. The result was not encouraging. Despite that this is the only team with a slight shot at unseating UMC, due to good lines.
West Virginia State will try to keep Northern from even reaching the CCG, and due has no a 3 and counting playoff streak, and this just might be dukers best team yet. While the team can’t keep up with the lines, on the skill positions it might actually have a tiny advantage.
Top 3 regular season games:
1. West Virginia State vs Northern State on day 9
This game is probably for the south. And maybe also for entry to the playoffs
2. UMC-West Virginia State on day 8
A good game , but it will be lopsided.
3. West Virginia State vs Winona State on day 6
One of the scrappiest SIM teams this season, will test West Virginia State, who is actually ranked behind Winona in GUESS
4. GLIAC GUESS ranking: 9th, WIS ranking after day 4: 3rd current record: 39-21
I had the GLIAC tenth last season and it will be higher this season, due to the OOC going way better. Also the number of potential playoff teams increased.
The favorite: Ferris State (5-0)
Contenders: GVSU (5-0)
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Findlay (5-0), Saginaw Valley (4-1)
Ferris State is the clear favorite, carried by elite skill position players. Overall this certainly is the most talented team, but with a bit of rebuilding decresing depth at several positions, GVSU might be in striking distance. Particularly the back seven of GVSU is better than that of Ferris state. Behind those two Findlay and SVSU are hoping for upsets and are currently in decent positions to get at –larges. Their Talent levels are actually rather similar, as Findlay is underranked in GUESS and has actually better skill position players, but suffers from some depth problems. SVSU also has the advantage of a clearly easier cross division schedule than GVSU.
Top 3 regular season games
1. Ferris State vs GVSU on day 7
Potentially a preview of the Final
2. Ferris State vs Findlay on day 12
Probably for the west
3. SVSU vs GVSU on day 10
Maybe for the east
A Findlay win could help SVSU. Also both teams will need this one to help their at large chances.
3. SIAC, GUESS ranking: 2nd, WIS ranking after day 5: 5th, current record: 330-30
According to GUESS, the hole between the SIAC and the PSAC is 40% smaller than last season. In one way, that is no surprise in a conference, where a team that made the national championship game couldn’t win its conference. The problem is that while the top 3 teams get better and better, there is no viable second guard to create more depth. While Miles is one season in under a new coach it is not yet ready to compete.
The Favorite: Quincy (5-0)
Contenders: Kentucky State (4-1) Lane (4-1)
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Morehouse (4-1)
Overall this should be a very tight conference race again.
This is season two of the Quincy rebuildload. Extraclass at receiver separates them from their brethren on O. Defensively there was a lot of improvement, and now it is a team without big holes there too. Lane has the best QB in the conference, and no big holes on O. The D can absolutely compete too, just DB is a bit behind the other too. Offensively Kentucky State has the best line saying it might repeat as the conference champ, but QB is still behind the other two. Defensively linebacker looks a bit of a problem, but otherwise it is all high class. Morehouse is a SIM who had a good OOC. If things fall perfectly, maybe the team makes the playoffs.
Top 3 games
1. Quincy vs Lane on day 12
The winner gets to play Kentucky state in the Championship game
2. Kentucky State vs Quincy on day 8
3. Kentucky State vs Morehouse on day 7
2. GSC, GUESS ranking: 5th, WIS ranking after day 5: 2nd, current record: 38-22
This is one of those conferences that have developed a healthy bit of depth in terms of potential playoff teams over the last few seasons. Add some threats to make the quarters or final four, and this will be a fun one to watch.
The favorite: Delta State (5-0)
Contenders: Valdosta State (5-0), West Georgia (5-0), Central Arkansas (4-1),
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Arkansas-Monticello (5-0), Harding (4-1), West Alabama (2-3)
Delta State does not have the most talent QB or RB, but very high quality everywhere else, makes them the clear favorite to repeat. That said, this is the season Valdosta States big class is seniors, and while the lines are not quite as good as Deltas, at least at QB they are better. In terms of cross division difficulty, Valdosta drew the short straw again this season.
The next contender is West Georgia a team that has had a nearly meteoric rise in terms of GUESS rankings under coach starfinder, but has yet to make the playoffs, after getting hosed due to SOS last season. The OOC was all cupcakes again, but the strong conference and the better team may be ready for the jump this season. While I am frankly entirely unimpressed by the skill position players, the lines are at least better than Valdostas and the defensive back seven is probably the best in conference.
West Georgias primary competitor for the north is Central Arkansas, who is now on an 8 season streak to win the north (one championship). The team is better than WG at RB and WR. And has the best TE in all of Division II. While the lines and the defensive back seven are slightly worse than West Georgia, it is by little enough, that I got no clue who will win their game.
With UAM there is a third team on the move in the south. While this might be the third best O of the conference I don’t think the d-line or the rest of the defense is quite ready for the jump past the big dogs. UAM missed an at large last season, primarily due to conference misshaps. The cross division schedule is not tough again.
Despite ok QB and RB, I don’t see Harding and West Alabama with a shot at the conference, because line talent and overall defense just are not there. But with an upset or so, maybe there is a tiny shot at the playoffs.
A good amount of choices was available here too.
Top 3 regular season games
1. Delta State vs Valdosta State on day 9
The game that likely decides the south
2. UCA vs West Georgia on day 12
Probably the deciding battle for the north
3. West Georgia vs Ark-Monticello on day 6
The kind of game both teams could use to get an at-large.
1. PSAC, GUESS ranking: 1st, WIS ranking after day 5: 1st, current record: 46-14
I still have the PSAC as king. But the gap is closing, because with Slippery Rocks slow demise, there is no team with max vision left, and if one were to only look at the 3 best teams, the SIAC would be ahead. That said: when one looks at this OOC record, then there is little left to argue about which is the number one conference.
This will be another super interesting conference race
The favorite: Millersville (5-0),
The Contenders: Kutztown (4-1), Slippery Rock (4-1), East Stroudsburg (5-0), Mansfield (5-0), Edinboro (4-1), Indiana (3-2),
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: California (4-1), West Chester (5-0), Clarion (4-1)
30 Players of Millersville are either Juniors or sophomores, and it is easy to see, why that should mean Millersville improved again. After outperforming its talent level several times, this time there is no obvious bigger dog left. That said the hurdles are many. Slippery Rock: can the zombie team win the conference again? I tend to say it will not happen this time because by now the O-line is playing two scrubs from the start, and the Defense goes one deep. But that one is still the moste talented starting lineup, and the skill positions first string is also the most talented. It is just, that without game planning nor any semblance of depth, if anyone can hold them to a few three and outs, that should be enough to take advantage. I’d guess Edinboro will be the one to take advantage of SRs demise in the west. The potentially best Qb in DII, combined with a top ten WR and maybe the best O-line in the PSAC should scare any opponent. The D may not be quite that stellar, but should be good enough to give the O a chance in any game. Indiana is still a bit behind Edinboro in my mind, although RB is nothing but pure elite. But the O-line is at best the 5th best in the PSAC. With the two losses already incurred, the line between the championship game and missing the playoffs will be razor thin.
A razor thin line between a CCG run and missing the playoffs is also the case for Kutztown. At least the cross division is as benevolent as it gets in the PSAC. The O would be absolutely on par with Millersvilles, if it were not for some rebuilding on the OL. The D is also quite solid. Mansfield again caught a really tough cross division… again. The O is on par with all the competitors, but the D is more of a top 20 than a top 10 unit. That said this is good enough to have a shot at getting past Millersville and Kutztown. And if there is a team I feel like I might have missed in my preseason top 15, then it is Mansfield.
The 4th east contender is defending division champion East Stroudsburg, which beat up on its cupcake OOC schedule. Winning the divison is gonna be a bit tougher this season, as the team is a bit on the younger side which hits particularly the WR spot hard. If one looks only at the starters, the D is among the 4 best in the PSAC, but there are depth problems that might be exploitable.
I am not entirely sure what to make of California of Pennsylvania. The offense is one of the 3 best in the PSAC, but the defensive front seven might not be playoff worthy. I can see a good number of upsets, a playoff birth is decently likely, but I cannot really see a conference championship. West Chester has 21 (!) seniors. And the thing that really helps with rebuilding is making the playoffs just before recruiting your big class. In that respect the OOC went according to plan, but cross division is an unlucky draw, and the PSACs murderers row will test this team hard, but the talent might be there to score an upset or two and sneak in. Clarion will also attempt to make the playoffs, but I believe them not quite ready yet, particularly on D.
My top 3 games
(3 are not enough)
1. Millersville vs Edinboro on day 7
In my mind probably the two best PSAC teams of the season. Whoever loses the game will start the division race from behind.
2. Kutztown vs Millersville on day 12
Given Kutztowns cross division, there is a very fair chance that this game will feature one or two teams looking to hammer out the division victory.
3. Edinboro at Indiana on day 10
This might be the decider in the west.
4. Millersville vs Mansfield on day 9
Another game with high division race implications.