I still think SR is a force to be reckoned with. Even if more or less on auto-pilot, I haven't been able to beat them. Get a third chance in the past two seasons tomorrow. Interesting first round -- congrats to all who made the playoffs but that was a pretty wild first day. Average margin of victory was more than 33 points. Only four games decided by fewer than three TDs, which is interesting since there is such a logjam of teams from 5 to 20 in the GUESS rankings (~5.5 GUESS points, which is a lot but not insurmountable).

As for overall predictions -- I think it's going to be incredibly interesting in the South where Minn.-Crookston and SEOD should meet in the quarters. I'm going to go UMC (despite all of Dachmann's hard work) moving on. In the North, if someone can knock off NCCU I'll be pretty surprised and impressed. I had zero answers for OP's team last year and it didn't change this season. I like the East with Millersville, Lane and Kentucky State all being really tough squads but I'd guess it comes down to Quincy and Western. I'll go Quincy for the sake of not going all chalk, though WSSC is really tough. In the West I've got to say Slippery Rock still feels like the favorite but I'll go with my VA State squad b/c I'm not going to pick against myself. That would be depressing.

it gets interesting tomorrow and i have my hands full with minn crookston. that said there are plenty of good teams and any one team could upset another. the top 15 teams could win any given day. that being said dachmans SEO team will be a tuff out for anyone ECCU is my other pick.

Ok day one of the playoffs is in the books. I survived. (otherwise I might no be doing this post today, as the moment I lose in the playoffs, I usually am done with the game for a day ;)

How did my lines do? well I had the correct favorite 12 out of 15 times. the cases wehre I was wrong I had lines within seven points. The teams I was wrong on were Valdosta State, Humboldt State and Millersville. I think I had the + so often wrongly on Millersville by now, that mojolad can safely assume that it is a good omen.

For the rest, the lines where I had the correct winner, it was almost always by too few points, which is totally in line with what billsin said above. As a consequence I will likely raise the lines a bit more than I thought yesterday

So here are the lines for today

North

NCCU -13.5 vs Abilene Christian

Ferris State -6.5 vs Bryant

South

Minnesota Crookston -16.5 vs Central Arkansas

East

Western State -8.5 vs Millersville

Quincy -4.5 vs Valdosta State

West

Slippery Rock -4.5 vs Virginia State

Humboldt State +3.5 vs Delta State

I'm a little late with the predictions. 

My final four is NCCU vs SEO, WSCC vs Slippery Rock.

I tried to talk myself into picking Virginia State and almost did, but I think jlin is around and there is still too much talent there. I am picking dachmann to beat me partly out of false modesty and partly because of his 19 Seniors.

I have NCCU winning it all. Orangepace had me beat until the team went all playoff Cleveland Browns in the 1980's and somehow invented a way to lose in the last 5 minutes. This year he doesn't suffer the bad luck of the random number generator and wins it all.

Congrats to those who made it to the quarter finals.

The lines and some words on the matchups:

NCCU -9.5 vs Bryant
Bryant is one of those teams proving me wrong in the second round. But upsetting other teams will not get easier, as now comes the real heavy hitter.

SEO vs Minnesota Crookston
While there are a lot of teams that might beat me, there were only two teams I figured I REALLY did not want to see in my region (or better yet in my half) and this is one of them. Being a one seed and having the defending champ in the quarters does not feel like a lucky draw (particularly after getting Kutztown as an "8 seed"). No matter what happens one the most talented teams will have to leave the competition.

Millersville vs Quincy push
Mojolad is starting to scare me. He lost 4 games in the regular season, but he again pulled some crazy rabbits out of the hat come playoff time. That defeat over Western was definitely an impressive feat and goes with his previous defeat of Minnesota Crookston. So his team is capabale of anything, good and bad. Quincy is last seasons runner up, a team that is undergoing some rebuilding this season but still awfully talented, and just survived a dogfight with Valdosta.

Virginia State -4.5 vs Delta State
Both teams managed really nice wins to get here, beating Slippery Rock and Humboldt State. I kind of think, that if Delta can make this an offensive shootout, they have a fair chance to win this one. If this becomes a defensive slugfest, then I don't see Delta prevailing.

This MIllersville game will be very interesting and likely one hell of a game.  Quincy has just a handful of impact upperclassmen but there are probably an equal number of freshmen and sophomores that are really playing just phenomenal for me.  So while the lack of upperclassmen certainly hurts, somehow we have managed to bridge that gap somewhat.  GL Mojo!

I'm just hoping for a competitive game with NCCU. That team has been on fire all year. Maybe time for an off-game? Is Marcellus Wallace running the WIS line?

Ok, so we are down to the semis.
they are

NCCU vs SEO:

Could you be more convincing in a quarter final than NCCU was? it was basically over at the half. SEO on the other hand almost squandered a halftime lead, and only got by thanks to a walk off field goal. I will be honest, when I talked of two teams I did rather not want to face.... NCCU wwas the other one.

Quincy vs Virginia State

Both teams were down at the half and mounted successful comebacks in the quarters. Virginia State has been a number of times to this stage, but has somehow never made it to the finals, so this is a big opportunity. For Quincy it could be the feat of making it to the finals for a second straight season, despite this team being loads younger than last seasons. If both VIrginia State and NCCU win, we could see the same game for the third time this season, as it would be a CIAA conference championship rematch.

Looking forward to a matchup against brygold. We have nearly identical resumes since moving to DII at the exact same time.

Tale of the tape
Brygold

Years in DII:  10 years
W/L record: 130-25
Conference titles: 2
Final Fours: 3
National Championships: 0

Billsin01

Years in DII:  10 years
W/L record: 134-29
Conference titles: 2
Final Fours: 4
National Championships: 0

I have one more final four, brygold has a title game appearance. Pretty crazy how similar that is tho.

All strong teams but my $$ is on NCCU. They are better than many 1AA squads I think.

I'm not sure anyone really expected Quincy to be back in the national championship game this year, nor does anyone expect Quincy to have any shot at all against NCCU.  Looks like I'm going to have to try some creative game planning to even have a smidgen of a chance.  Anyone got a ball deflator by chance?

Brygold my ex was rumored to have stollen my balls. If it will help you I'll give you her number.

LOL buzzard! Send her to OP's locker room at the half!

A belated congrats to OP for the semifinal win (I definitely got the completely worng offensive game plan there). Looks like he is shutting down brygolds offense too.

Congrats to brygold for the W in the semis and to OP for some serious domination.