I'm fairly confident with most teams. But as much as it galls me I think Brygold has my number. His team looks awesome.  Don't mean to sound cocky though. My next game is vs Jdtilt's Kutztown and he definitely has a team that could beat mine. Hope for the best, plan for the worst !

Great job Dachmann! Love reading these posts. ??

That was supposed to be one of those emoticons with sunglasses.

Badaxe, I loved your last poem   .

Just seeing if it works.  

Mojo: your reverse psychology only works on me if it is in haiku fashion. Appreciate the praise though.

Posted by brygold on 6/13/2015 9:10:00 PM (view original):
Mojo: your reverse psychology only works on me if it is in haiku fashion. Appreciate the praise though.

I saw a great team
It  made me ice cold.
Gonna be rough
When we meet with Brygold ! 

Finally I found a day with enough time to give you a proper bubble watch. And it was a good day for that to happen, as there was a decent bit of carnage today, and several teams lost who were not supposed to. Overall It feels like this is going to be a bubble slightly on the softer side. Currently there are 36 teams with 3 losses or less. On day 12 the average over the last 9 seasons was 38.6.

CIAA

Same two team story that we knew from seasons past.

Lock: NCCU (11-0)

Should be in:

Virginia State (10-2, WIS: 22 SOS: 45)

Had to come back from a half time deficit today, and yeah the WIS ranking is still not awesome, but really it takes imagination to see things go wrong.

GLIAC:

I eliminated Findlay after its loss to Ferris State today.

Lock:

Grand Valley State (12-0):

Ferris State (11-1, WIS: 8, SOS: 16): With the win over Findlay today, they can begin the preparation for the CCG without worries.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Saginaw Valley State (10-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 58): Looking pretty good. Yes the SOS droped a decent bit. Unless they get upset tomorrow, they should be safe. If they did lose, it would be close..

Wayne State (10-2, WIS: 37 SOS: 131): Keeps winning, but the SOS and MOVs are not ideal. Still, this SIM remains in striking distance. Would probably need a win over Ferris tomorrow though.

GSC

I took Arkansas-Monticello off the board, due to a freefalling SOS and decreasing WIS rankings.

Locks: Valdosta State (11-1):

Delta State (11-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 88):  up to lock status, things can’t possibly go wrong from here.

Should be in:

Central Arkansas (10-2, WIS: 19, SOS: 28). It was a hard fight, but UCA was victorious. This will put them in the CCG, but also made the playoffs pretty much a certainty.

Work to do:

West Georgia (10-2, WIS: 27, SOS: 111): West Georgias loss ton UCA represented a hit toward its playoff chances. Although they are now sure to sweat at least a little bit until the end, if they were to win tomorrow they’d very likely end on the right side of things. A loss to west Alabama on the other hand….

West Alabama (7-5, WIS: 39, SOS: 10): I decided to take West Alabama back onto the watch. It might be a short stay, but the high SOS, and the chance to shine vs West Georgia tomorrow have them at least within shouting distance of the bubble. But they will likely still need a bit of carnage in other bubble places.

LSC

Locks:

SE Oklahoma Durant (11-1)

Texas A&M commerce (12-0, WIS: 11, SOS: 76): Ran out of opportunities to fail.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Abilene Christian (9-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 41): ACU is on the bubble but currently on the right side, and unless they get upset, this will likely keep being the case.

Needs help to get an at large:

Central Oklahoma (6-6, WIS: 38, SOS: 3): No matter the schedule, 6 losses is very much (nobody got in with 6 in the last 9 seasons). The LSC norths down season does not help either. That said the OOC was so strong, maybe there is a way to the playoffs hidden somewhere.

 

MIAA

It was looking, like it was a surefire 2 playoff teams in the MIAA, but then there was more cannibalism, that leaves me unsure what to think.

Work left to do:

NW Missouri State (9-3, WIS: 23, SOS: 25): The record keeps improving, but the SOS does not. Losing to Pittsburg State before the CCG would put them back into the dangerzone.

Lock Haven (9-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 50): Ouch… that loss to Southwest Baptist was not in the plan, and certainly made other bubble teams happy. At this point a hiccup tomorrow is forbidden, and no one can really know whether a loss in the CCG would be sustainable, I would tend to say no.

Will need help to get an at large:

Truman State (7-5, WIS: 41, SOS: 23): I decided to keep Truman state in for the moment. But unless weird things happen, they will be off the watch tomorrow.

NCC

Its simple. This is a one team conference, two maybe if Augustana steals a bit.

Locks:

Work to do:

Humboldt State (12-0, WIS: 25, SOS: 144): I am not impressed by Humboldt (that schedule was a total cakewalk), but Humboldt does not need to impress to make the playoffs, just hold serve. I left it at work to do, because the SOS is actually so weak, that any loss before the CCG might throw them on the bubble. That said, I can’t really see any losing happening.

NE-10

One of those conferences where I think a SIM will make it in.

Locks:

Bryant (11-1, WIS: 15, SOS: 44): There was no total carnage or inexplicable losses. Bryant will not miss the playoffs.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Stonehill (10-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 81): This SIM is likely in, unless they get upset tomorrow and in the CCG.

Long Island (10-2, WIS: 34, SOS: 129): Square on the bubble, as the repercussions of the loss to Bryant (or the one to Stonehill) are still hard to judge exactly. The problem is that the SOS has decreased a good bit and is not likely to recover. It looks like it is gonna be veeeerrry tight.

 

 

NSIC

Locks:

Minnesota Crookston (12-0)

Northern State (11-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 65): Safe now.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

West Virginia State (8-4, WIS: 29, SOS: 4): Approaching the good side of the bubble but will not penetrate too deep into it. It will be sweating until the end and things will depend on bid stealers etc..

 

PSAC

Millersville wrapped up the north today, between Slippery Rock and Indiana… in a funny twist even Edinboro might come out on top there. And yet, all three of them might still miss the playoffs.

Locks:

Millersville (12-0), Mansfield (10-2):

East Stroudsburg (11-1, WIS: 18, SOS: 79): Bounced back with a hard fought win over Mansfield. Now the playoffs a certainty.

Should be in:

Kutztown (9-3, WIS: 21, SOS: 23): Todays loss was annoying although no disaster, it cost Kutztown a shot at the CCG. But since the SOS held up, they’d highly likely be in, even if they lost to ESUP tomorrow.

Work left to do:

Edinboro (8-4, WIS: 33, SOS: 18): Once you got more than 3 losses, you really depend on your SOS staying nice and upright and your MOVs nice. The MOVs are nice, but the SOS has not been moving quite nicely enough. Edinboro will spend the rest of the season on the bubble, and really need to hope.

Indiana (8-4, WIS: 28, SOS: 5): Hung on today. Tomorrows game vs Slippery Rock looms large, as a win means winning the division and probably the playoffs, and a loss might mean neither.

Slippery Rock (8-4, WIS: 32, SOS: 15): With todays close win over California, Slippery Rock improved to 1-4 vs WIS top 45 teams. This probably came just in time. This does not mean, that Slippery Rock is totally safe should they lose to Indiana tomorrow.

 

RMAC

Lock:

Western State (11-1):

Need help:

Colorado Mines (9-3, WIS: 36, SOS: 95): That loss to Chadron hurts, and now if I am honest, I don’t really see how Mines gets to the playoffs unless weird things happen. Looks like they will not even get a shot at the CCG.

SAC

I eliminated West Virginia and Tusculum today. The SAC might bring in a lot less team than one would think from a conference of this quality.

Locks

Mars Hill (11-1)

Glennville (11-1, WIS: 14, SOS: 51): With today’s win, things are now entirely certain.

Should be in:

Work to do:

Carson-Newman (9-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 74): The first half today was not inspiring, and CM needs its MOVs to be good. If they win out, they will end square on the bubble.

Need Help:

Lenoir-Rhyne (7-5, WIS: 42, SOS:9): I brought LR back on the watch, but unless they do their homework tomorrow vs WVIT and that WIS ranking improves, it might be a short stay.

SIAC

The SIAC is currently just waiting for tomorrows game between Lane and Quincy. Who gets bids seems pretty safe pretty much since some time already. I eliminated St Josephs from the watch.

Locks:

Quincy (12-0, WIS: 4, SOS: 29): Thoroughly impressive vs Lane today. it felt like it was over at half time.

Should be in:

Kentucky State (10-2, WIS:20, SOS:54): one more easy win, and they will be entirely safe.

Lane (10-2, WIS: 13, SOS: 19): The loss today hurt conference and pride wise, but in terms of the playoffs it was probably only a minor setback.

 

I'm just hoping that star finder makes the playoffs. He's been right there for a few years.

First of all: Sorry for the formatting. That has someting to do with the linux copy paste (usually do this from the windows side)

Day 13 has arrived, and unless you are playing tomorrow, or in the WIS top 40, you are just about certain not to make it in.
The bubble got a tiny bit tougher today since pretty much all teams in the 20 to 35 range of the WIS rankings won (Slipperyy Rock is the only exception). But behind that it feels like there is softness. It looks like there is a medium sized hole between 32nd in WIS and 33rd, and  a pretty big difference between 35th and 37th.

Conference Championship Previews:
Northwest Missouri State vs Lock Haven: Bubble implications: 90%. There will not be a bid stealer, but if Lock Haven loses like they did on day 7 (42-30), they are likely outside the playoffs instead of a 6th or 7th seed. NMSU on the other hand will likely get in, unless a loss would be very clear. A win would likely propel them toward a 5th seed.
Augustana vs Humboldt State Bid stealer potential: 70%. Humboldt State will meet a team in this seasons WIS top 50 for the first time this season! Despite that, there have been a few games that were semi close. Still it feels like highly probable Humboldt will win, which would likely propel them toward a 5 or even 4 seed. If they lost on the other hand, it is really hard to know what would happen to their ranking. They might retain a 6th seed or fall all the way out of the playoffs. Augustana would likely remain an outright bid stealer if they won, but even if not, be no better than an 8 seed.
Millersville vs Indiana Bubble implications: 60%. Indiana has never won a Conference championship, and plays the CCG for the first time since 46 seasons. If they won they might move to a 5 or 6 seed. If they to Millersville for a second time this season however (day 6 21-33), they might drop to an 8th seed or fall out of the playoffs altogether. A win would keep Millersville as a one seed, while a loss may have them still as a low one or a 2 seed.
Bryant vs Stonehill Bubble implications: 30%. Bryant would likely move to a three or low 2 seed with defending their championship. A loss would probably drop them to a 5 seed. Stonehill is a SIM who has the MOV one expects from a sim (not good). That said, they would likely remain in the field, even with a loss, but likely as a 7 or 8 seed. A win would probably send them toward a 5 or even a 4 seed.
Western State vs Chadron State Bid stealer potential: 5%. In truth the bid stealer potential is more like 0%, since there is no way Western loses this game. It will be the 26th consecutive conference title. Western winning will probably propel them to a 2 seed.
Mars Hill (12-1) vs Glennville (12-1). Bid stealer potential: 0% This is the final for the third time running, with both having taken one.  Mars Hill might move up to a one seed or stay at a two with a win, but probably fall to a 3 seed with a loss. Glenville could would likely move to a 3 seed with a win, 2 seed at best, while a loss likely would drop them to a 5 seed.
Central Arkansas vs Valdosta State: Bid stealer potential: 0%. Central Arkansas is trying to do better than in their day 6 loss (55-13). Victory would give them probably a 4th seed, while defeat might lead to anything between a 5th and 7th seed. Valdosta might become a high 2 seed, or fall to a 3rd or even 4th seed.
Minnesota Crookston (13-0), Northern State (12-1): Bid stealer potential: 0%. The traditional N-SUN final (12th time in a row.) UMC won it the last 4 times, and might approach the overall 1 seed if they did so again, while dropping to a 2 or 3 seed if theey don’t. Northern could improve to a 2 or 3 seed with a win, or remain/drop to a 4 or 5 seed with a loss.
SE Oklahoma Durant (12-1) vs Texas A&M commerce (13-0): Bid stealer potential: 0%. this is phimutaus first try at the CCG. Despite similar WIS rankings, 3 times defending champion SEO is probably the favorite. Both teams could approach a 2 seed with a victory, and fall to a 4th or 5th seed with a defeat.
Grand Valley State vs Ferris State. Bid stealer potential: 0% GVSU won the first game, not in small part due to Ferris States 5 turnovers. GVSU plays for a one seed, Ferris State could be a borderline one seed or fall to about a three seed.
Quincy vs Kentucky State: Bid stealer potential: 0%. Despite reaching the Natty final for the second time in arrow, last season it was Kentucky State who won last seasons Conference Final. Quincy took revenge on day 8 this season (50-27). A win would likely keep Quincy as 1 seed, while a loss might drop them to a 2 or 3. Kentucky could move up to a 4 seed with a win, while a loss would likely drop them to a 6 or 7.
NCCU vs Virginia State. Bid stealer potential: 0% NCCU could win a one seed, Virginia State could fall to a 7 seed, or get up to a 4 seed if they were to avenge their earlier 33 point pasting.

Bubble Watch:
CIAA
Same two team story that we knew from seasons past.
Lock: NCCU (13-0)
Should be in:
Virginia State (11-2, WIS: 20 SOS: 49)
GLIAC:
Lock:
Grand Valley State (13-0), Ferris State (12-1):
Should be in:
Saginaw Valley State (11-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 64): Looking pretty good. Yes the SOS droped a decent bit, but now they’ve run out of hurdles before the playoffs.
Needs help:
Wayne State (10-3, WIS: 37 SOS: 114): Lost to Ferris, no surprise there. The improved SOS keeps them on the board, but due to the loss takes a lot of carnage ahead of them to see Wayne State make it to the playoffs.
GSC
After 3 titles in a row, there will be a new champion this season. West Alabama got taken off the board after todays loss.
Locks: Valdosta State (12-1), Delta State (12-1):
Central Arkansas (11-2, WIS: 17, SOS: 27). Even a loss tomorrow should not represent a problem.
Should be in:
West Georgia (11-2, WIS: 27, SOS: 89): Barely got out alive in over time vs West Alabama. While they are not perfectly certain, it feels like it would take quite a few unfortunate bounces for West Georgia to miss the playoffs.

LSC
Locks:
SE Oklahoma Durant (12-1), Texas A&M commerce (13-0).
Should be in:
Work left to do:
Abilene Christian (10-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 55): ACU is on the bubble but currently on the right side. The decreasing SOS put them too close for comfort to the cut line though.  I'd say things are looking better than 50%, although not much more. If there are bidstealers, and teams like Lock haven and Indiana win it could go bad in a hurry.
Needs help to get an at large:
Central Oklahoma (7-6, WIS: 38, SOS: 6): It is looking dire, because no matter the schedule, 6 losses is very much (nobody got in with 6 in the last 9 seasons). The LSC norths down season did not help either. That said the OOC was so strong, maybe there is a way to the playoffs hidden somewhere.

MIAA
It was looking, like it was a surefire 2 playoff teams in the MIAA, but then there was more cannibalism, that leaves me unsure what to think.
Should be in:
NW Missouri State (10-3, WIS: 22, SOS: 22): Looking at the WIS ranking I don’t think much can happen, but if the CCG should be a blowout of the bad kind, and there are bid stealers …well maybe it will not be enough. It is not helpful that their opponent has 3 losses of his own.
Work left to do:
Lock Haven (10-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 41): Bounced back today. But right now it looks like they probably need to win the conference tomorrow, to get into the playoffs.
Will need help to get an at large:
Truman State (8-5, WIS: 38, SOS: 24): This is the longest shot I still kept on the board. If there is a chance, it is mostly in the Tom Carrey kind of sense.
NCC
Its simple. This is a one team conference, two maybe if Augustana steals a bit.
Locks:
Work to do:
Humboldt State (13-0, WIS: 25, SOS: 144): I am not impressed by Humboldt (that schedule was a total cakewalk), but Humboldt does not need to impress to make the playoffs, just hold serve. It is actually really hard to predict how far they’d fall if they lost the CCG. Currently they certainly have a good unbeaten bonus, but the bump to the SOS will be considerable, even when only playing Augustana, due to the super aweful nature of the SOS. I’d say they remain in, but… who knows.
A shot at stealing a bid:
Augustana (10-3, WIS: 43 SOS: 125). Another SIM. Better ranked, but not really much better than any Humboldt has played all season.
NE-10
One of those conferences where I think a SIM will make it in.
Locks:
Bryant (12-1): There was no total carnage or inexplicable losses. Bryant will not miss the playoffs.
Should be in:
Work left to do:
Stonehill (11-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 80): Todays win was probably enough. But if they lost really clearly tomorrow and things go bad elsewhere… who knows.
Long Island (11-2, WIS: 35, SOS: 134): It looks like it is gonna be veeeerrry tight. Scoreboard watching should be big for Manahan tomorrow. Right now the signs are rather on thumbs down.

NSIC
Locks:
Minnesota Crookston (13-0), Northern State (12-1)
Should be in:
Work left to do:
West Virginia State (9-4, WIS: 29, SOS: 9): Currently on the good side of the bubble but did not penetrate too deep into it. There will be at least some sweating tomorrow.

PSAC
The future has begun. Slippery Rock missed the CCG for the first time in an eternity, and this is how the future will be. If things go really weird it ccould be as few as 4 teams making it, but 7 also still remains a possiblity. I'd put the over under at 5.5.
Locks:
Millersville (13-0), Mansfield (11-2), East Stroudsburg (11-2)
Kutztown (10-3, WIS: 18, SOS: 15): Assured the playoffs with the win over ESUP today.
Should be in:
Work left to do:
Edinboro (9-4, WIS: 32, SOS: 16): Once you got more than 3 losses, you really depend on your SOS staying nice and upright and your MOVs being nice. The MOVs are nice, but the SOS has not been moving quite nicely enough. Edinboro will spend the rest of the season on the bubble, and really need to hope there are no bid stealers.
Indiana (9-4, WIS: 28, SOS: 4): What a win, Indiana wins the division! Alas the excitement could be gone in a heart beat. The last (and only) time Indiana reached the CCG, they missed out on the playoffs. To be fair that was in season 52, and some time has passed, but there is a chance it might happen again. No one can know for sure where they will end, if they lose to Millersville. I would guess things would end well, due to another jolt to the SOS. But a 5th loss is also quite a bit of losing for a single regular season.
Need help to get an at-large:
Slippery Rock (8-5, WIS: 34, SOS: 12): As tough as the sched was, going 0-5 vs WIS top 40 teams might not be quite sufficient. Actually it speaks to the bubbles softness, that SR is still having a chance. But now the zombie team needs help from elsewhere, for example Indiana coming back due to a CCG loss. This is the first time in 24(!) seasons that SR missed the CCG.

RMAC
Lock:
Western State (12-1):
Need help:
Colorado Mines (10-3, WIS: 36, SOS: 115): That loss to Chadron still hurts. Things don’t exactly look good, but it is probably even an advantage Mines does not get to play Western and receive a thorough pasting. If teams like Stonehill etc fall far enough, it is actually quite imaginable, that Mines could get in after all. But they still need a good bit of luck.
Potential Bid Stealers:
Chadron State (10-3, WIS: 44, SOS: 115): Only here for completeness sake. Will not win vs Western State.
SAC
I took LR right back of the board.
Locks
Mars Hill (12-1), Glennville (12-1).
Should be in:
Work to do:
Carson-Newman (10-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 74): Failed to help itself today with another uninspiring MOV (a one point squeker vs Tusculum). They remain square on the bubble, tendency bad side, and need to root against bid stealers and for at least one team to fall out of the top 32.

SIAC
The SIAC is currently just waiting for tomorrows game between Lane and Quincy. Who gets bids seems pretty safe pretty much since some time already. I eliminated St Josephs from the watch.
Locks:
Quincy (13-0)
Lane (11-2, WIS: 13, SOS: 20) Their loss to Lenoir Rhyne remains the most puzzling result of the season to me, but everything else was perfectly fine for a team that decent playoff seeding.
Kentucky State (10-2, WIS:19, SOS:58): Win or lose tomorrows game is good for the SOS, and with the SOS KSU already has, they still be entirely certain at 10-3.

What you have done can be stated as above and beyond the call of duty. Thank you for all your effort. We will miss those updates you will have to cut back on but understand the priorities.

I like the previews and playoff coverage, but whatever you decide to produce I'll enjoy it. Thanks again, Dachmann.

Thanks for what you've done dachman. Now who needs one of them fancy edumacations when your a football coach?

Dachman, your work has been great. I voted for the season preview and top 15. Being greedy, I hope you don't give any of it up. If you have to give up one thing, I would vote for the bubble watch on early days. What/where is your postdoc?