Posted by billsin01 on 5/4/2015 3:29:00 PM (view original):
I think maybe that Va State/NCCU game was over-hyped a big Dachmann ;) Always enjoyable read and thanks for all the hard work.

Posted by dachmann on 5/5/2015 10:06:00 AM (view original):

Posted by billsin01 on 5/4/2015 3:29:00 PM (view original):
I think maybe that Va State/NCCU game was over-hyped a big Dachmann ;) Always enjoyable read and thanks for all the hard work.

Well I guess it was the MayPac of division II... sadly enough for you, not with the same kind of money.

Bubble watch season has officially begun folks. See if you find yourselves, and if you do, hope you are on the good side J

CIAA

Both Maywheather and Pacquiao might keep boxing once the playoffs start. But other than that? It looks bleak for any third bid chances. I did not consider WSSU because 4 losses with this SOS is simply too much.

Lock: NCCU (9-0, WIS: 1 SOS:5)

9-0 with a SOS that is beyond unproblematic and a remaining schedule that holds no surprises. No problems imaginable.

Should be in:

Virginia State (7-2, WIS: 18 SOS: 22)

 It would take at least one loss, and probably two to awful Sim teams for them to miss the playoffs.

GLIAC:

The Initial WIS rankings were high on the GLIAC. But a lot has happened, and the conferrences WIS ranking has fallen from 4^th after day 4, to 5^th after day 5 and by now to 8/9. So the GLIAC really needs the conferences OOC oponents to start doing well in their own conferences. So while the conference has a lot of candidates for at large spots, I would not be surprised if there is only two or even just one team getting in in the end.

Should be in:

Ferris State (7-2, WIS: 8, SOS: 7): Ferris State played a real tough schedule again, but this year there were more losses. That said, after todays win over Findlay it would take a train wreck for them to miss the playoffs.

Work left to do:

Saginaw Valley State (8-1, WIS: 30, SOS: 119): It was ugly, but it was a win today over Ashland. Currently things look ok, losing before the CCG might spell doom though due to the SOS likely decreasing.

Wayne State (5-4, WIS: 56 SOS: 54): The WIS ranking and number of losses is not looking good, but if they could beat both Findlay and Ferris, they might move close to the bubble.

Findlay (5-4, WIS: 38, SOS: 14): Findlays new coach inherited a tough schedule, one his team wasn’t quite ready for. Still it was close at the half vs Ferrris. But the loss still drops Findlay to the fringes of the playoffs, with only one chance to drop one and no chances to really impress the committee

Grand Valley State (5-4, WIS: 45, SOS: 27): In a similar position as Findlay, with a good but not great SOS and already four losses. Beating Ashland and SVSU would at least allow to win the division and keep the SOS from falling off a cliff.

Ashland (6-3, WIS: 48, SOS: 77): The loss to SVSU hurt. Due to low MOVs etc Ashland is currently firmly on the outside looking in.

GSC

Work to do:

Central Arkansas (7-2, WIS: 11, SOS: 10). Two losses by a combined 4 points to teams in the WIS top 8 are easily counterbalanced by a bunch of decent wins. That said UCA still needs to take care of business and win the next two games to feel entirely certain. Win the one over West Georgia, and the seeding in the playoffs might be very favorable.

West Georgia (8-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 67): West Georgia hasn’t made the playoffs in 15 seasons. And while there is still work to do, this looks likely to change in season 97. Their decent SOS will probably – but not certainly – allow for two more losses. The schedule still has UCA and 3 teams where West Georgia will be the favorite.

Delta State (9-0, WIS: 24, SOS: 134): If Deltas SOS were in the 50ies, they’d be a lock. But being what it is, they could not be eniterly certain to get in with two losses, and with Valdosta and 3 other games and a potential CCG still on the schedule I did not yet dare putting them near that place.

Valdosta State (8-1, WIS: 29, SOS: 115):  Another season, but once more Valdosta played nobody in OOC. Despite the cross division being toughish and a win over West Georgia, this is not a safe resume at all. There are still 3 human games left, and a loss in any of them might leave Valdosta square on the bubble.

Arkansas Monticello (6-3, WIS: 51, SOS: 93): 3 Losses with this SOS is not looking good, but it will improve. That said, UAM definitely needs to upset Valdosta tomorrow or suffer elimination.

Henderson State (8-1, WIS:36, SOS: 124): A SIM that came out of nowhere and managed to accumulate a good number of wins over other semi-decentish teams in OOC and has so far only slipped once in conference. It might only need one win from the games vs Delta, Valdosta and UAM. I’d give that maybe 20% chance of happening

LSC

Will the LSC get 4 teams in this season? My heart says yes. What is sure is that the semi-final games promise to be closer than in previous seasons.

Locks:

SE Oklahoma Durant (8-1, WIS: 3, SOS: 3) :

Only one real opponent left and a SOS that would probably allow for 4 or even 5 losses.

Should be in:

Central Oklahoma (9-0, WIS: 12, SOS: 108): Undefeated and it would likely take 3 or even 4 losses for them to not make it. It takes a lot of imagination for that to happen

Work left to do:

Abilene Christian (7-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 40): It was a good schedule and 7-2 is ok. I’d think that even a loss to TAMC might not doom them. But they’d be safer to take care of business.

Texas A&M commerce (7-2, WIS: 27, SOS: 42):  A nice win over West Texas A&M has them pretty much in the exactly same position as ACU is.

MIAA

It may not be visible to everyone, but the conference IS improving and developing depth. That said though, unless NMSU gets upset, this is a one bid league with many teams on the fringes of or just outside the bubble picture.

Work left to do:

NW Missouri State (9-0, WIS: 15, SOS: 98): It wasn’t always pretty or over impressive competition, but NMSU is undefeated and the win over Pittsburg state leaves them only with Truman State as a real problem on the way to the CCG.  

Need help to get an at large:

Truman State (6-3, WIS: 43, SOS: 62): Winning out and losing in the CCG is likely not enough, even though the SOS of the north teams is likely to suffer much less

Washburn-Topeka (7-2, WIS: 60 SOS: 141): The SOS is so horrible that even if the only remaing loss were to come in the CCG, they’d be unlikely to make it in.

SW Baptist (5-4, WIS: 42 SOS: 23), Pittsburg State (5-4, WIS: 47, SOS: 31): Currently the SOS would still be in reach of a at large, but it is set to get worse fast.

NCC

Maybe if St. Cloud could sneak in, this conference could finally be more than one bid.

Locks:

Humboldt State (9-0, WIS: 6, SOS: 49): Better teams than are left on the schedule have failed to climb this wall.

Work to do:

St. Cloud State (6-3, WIS: 35 SOS: 37): Due to a likely decreasing SOS they would even ending up being 10-4 might leave them barely on the wrong side. But it does not necessarily have to. This is the kind of team that really needs to push the MOV.

NE-10

The NEC 10s conference WIS ranking (11^th) shows the problem of the conferences nicely. The humans did worse than usually and are now paying for it because the SIMs also sucked more than SIMs usually do. This is a two bid league at best.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Bryant (8-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 64): Despite a decent OOC performance, Bryant is paying for the conferences suckiness. I assume they’d get in if they lost to long Island on Sunday, but I am not sure seing as the SOS is likely to take a number of hits.

Long Island (6-3, WIS: 39, SOS: 57): If the tought oponents hadn’t been counterbalanced by horrible OOC cupcakes, maybe there’d be a better chance. As it is, they definitely need to beat Bryant. But I think it likely that winning the conference will be necessary.

Need help to get an at large:

Stonehill (6-3, WIS: 44, SOS: 85): Probably also need to win the conference, as 10-4 is unlikely to be good enough with what is left on the schedule.

NSIC

The south division races is pretty much over already. But the question of whether there will be 1 or up to three teams remains.

Locks:

Minnesota Crookston (8-1, WIS: 7, SOS: 26):  A top team that could afford at least two more losses.

Work left to do:

Northern State (7-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 18): A win over WVSC was just what the doctor ordered to revive Northern States shot at an at large. They are now firmly in the souths drivers seat. If they can hold on until the CCG and lose there to UMC, I wouldn’t want to bet on them making it or not.

West Virginia State (6-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 12): Maybe the loss to Northern wasn’t all bad. At least WVSC is now likely to avoid playing UMC a second time. While things may end up well if WVSC wins out, the likely decreasing SOS is sure to keep them sweating at least a little bit.

PSAC

It seems, that before we can have a new star wars movie, we need to go through the “revenge of the Slippery Rock zombie”. The first victim of this horror movie is Mansfield. A real good team that got brutally slaughtered by its monster schedule. Even though they may potentially get back to the WIS top 32, you are not eligible for at larges if you have a losing record.

Locks:

Should be in:

East Stroudsburg (9-0, WIS: 9, SOS: 83): At the beginning of last season I proclaimed ESUP a top ten team. Seems it took them till this season to actually realize it.

Slippery Rock (8-1, WIS: 5, SOS: 6): losing 3 more games would be ok, even losing all remaining games might not disqualify SR.

Edinboro (8-1, WIS: 13, SOS: 35): Looks like last seasons blemish will be corrected this season, and Edinboro will be back in the playoffs. Tomorrows game vs SR is likely for the West and without at-large implications.

Work left to do:

Millersville (6-3, WIS: 16, SOS: 1): Played a similar gauntlet as Mansfield, but held up better. Probably one win away from a lock. But there are not many easy wins in the PSAC.

Kutztown (8-1, WIS: 34, SOS: 131): Beating Mansfield is probably the Win WIS undervalues the most this season. Other than that there are actually no impressive wins on this resume, meaning that even though the SOS is likely to improve into the double digits, I am not sure they could afford to lose both to ESUP and Millersville. 

Indiana (6-3, WIS: 33, SOS: 20): Close, but no cigar. Winning that overtime game vs Edinboro today would have really helped. As it is I’d say Indiana either needs to beat California or pull the upset over Slippery Rock.

California (6-3, WIS: 25, SOS: 8): California reacted to last seasons Cupcake disaster and scheduled tough in OOC and consequently lost two games. It partially made up for this with a W over Kutztown. But the situation remains uncertain at best. They need at least one but probably two wins vs the tough competition of Indiana, Edinboro and Slippery Rock. A loss to Indiana tomorrow would thus put either team to the brink of elimination.

Only with imagination:

West Chester (3-6, WIS:41, SOS: 4), Bloomsberg (3-6, WIS:62, SOS: 32): despite good or even excellent schedules, these teams would need to win out just to avoid the automatic losing record elimination.

RMAC

When I get down to the tenth conference, I am always happy that the RMAC is a fast story.

Lock:

Western State (9-0, WIS: 4, SOS: 38): Top team with no opponents left.

Should be in:

Colorado Mines (9-0, WIS: 10, SOS: 90): Mines’ best season in a long time. A win away from lock status.

SAC

The SAC is one of my favorite conferences, since there are always so many hard to predict games around. Sadly enough for the conference, this does not always translate to many human coaches making the playoffs.

Should be in:

Work to do:

Glennville (9-0, WIS: 14, SOS: 111): Yes it is an undefeated record, but the SOS may still get them if they lost three, and they got WVIT, Lenoir Rhyne and Newberry still to go.

Carson-Newman (8-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 59): Almost but not quite aced the cross division. If they could take care of Mars Hill tomorrow they’d have a good deal of security. If they lose on the other hand, there will be no margin of error left.

Lenoir-Rhyne (8-1, WIS: 22, SOS: 71): Due to acing the conference so far, they are currently looking good. That said, while tomorrows game vs Glennville may be primary about the conference championship, a loss would also eliminate a good deal of LRs at-large breathing room, and WVIT and Newberry will also still be waiting.

Mars Hill (6-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 36): If Mars Hill is to make it, the likeliest way is via winning the conference…again. That said, if this SIM were to beat Carson Newman tomorrow, -not at all outside the realm of probability- then maybe losing to Glennville in the CCG would be good enough.

SIAC

The playoff teams will likely be the same as always. But nothing is decided in terms of conference championsip.

Locks:

Quincy (9-0, WIS: 2, SOS: 4):  Good SOS, undefeated and only the game vs Lane left.

Should be in:

Kentucky State (7-2, WIS:17, SOS:17): Beating a few SIMs away from lock status.

Work to do:

Lane (7-2, WIS: 21, SOS: 24): A loss to Quincy would probably bee no problem, but winning everything else would be prudent, just to be safe.

Kentucky Wesleyan (8-1, WIS: 32, SOS: 106): I don’t think it will be good enough this SIM should lose to both Lane and Quincy as is to be expected.

Day 10 update:

At the half it was looking like a lot of Bubble teams were going to lose surprising games… in the end the bubble carnage was not quite so heavy.

Just as an aside: there are currently less undefeated teams, less teams with one loss or less, less teams with 2 losses or less and less teams with three losses or less than on average over the last 7 seasons at this point in time. This suggests that the bubble might end up being a bit softer than usually.

CIAA

Sadly enough things will be boring until the CCG: only two teams will make it in.

Lock: NCCU (10-0)

Should be in:

Virginia State (8-2, WIS: 19 SOS: 29)

The WIS ranking may not be super wow, but there is nothing on the schedule etc that could be a problem

GLIAC:

The Initial WIS rankings were high on the GLIAC. But a lot has happened, and the conferrences WIS ranking has fallen from 4^th after day 4, to 5^th after day 5 and by now to 8. GVSU got eliminated today.

Should be in:

Ferris State (8-2, WIS: 8, SOS: 7): Closing in on lock status.

Work left to do:

Saginaw Valley State (9-1, WIS: 26, SOS: 115): Keeps not impressing but winning the important games. Currently things look ok, losing before the CCG might spell doom though due to the SOS likely decreasing.

Wayne State (6-4, WIS: 56 SOS: 62): The WIS ranking and number of losses is not looking good, but if they could beat both Findlay and Ferris, they might move close to the bubble.

Findlay (6-4, WIS: 40, SOS: 30): Findlay did all you can do against a cupcake today. Findlays new coach inherited a tough schedule, one his team wasn’t quite ready for. Only one chance to drop one and no chances to really impress the committee

Need help:

Ashland (7-3, WIS: 49, SOS: 90): 3 losses and the SOS could be ok, but the MOVs are not and the WIS ranking is according, with very few chances to improve. This means unless it starts moving soon, they will be taken off the watch.

GSC

The GSC probably did some damage to itself with todays results. How bad the fallout is, is hard to say with certainty though. UAM lost today and got eliminated.

Work to do:

Central Arkansas (8-2, WIS: 13, SOS: 19). Two losses by a combined 4 points to teams in the WIS top 8 are easily counterbalanced by a bunch of decent wins. That said UCA still needs to take care of business and win the next game to feel entirely certain. Win the one over West Georgia, and the seeding in the playoffs might be very favorable.

West Georgia (8-2, WIS: 28, SOS: 81): That loss to west Alabama was not in the script and eats a lot of error margin. The schedule still has UCA and 2 teams where West Georgia will be the favorite. A loss to UCA may be just sustainable, but its not certain. Any other slip ups are definitely not sustainable

Delta State (10-0, WIS: 22, SOS: 136): If Deltas SOS were in the 50ies, they’d be a lock. But being what it is, they could not be eniterly certain to get in with two losses, and with Valdosta and 2 other games and a potential CCG still on the schedule I did not yet dare putting them near that place.

Valdosta State (9-1, WIS: 25, SOS: 113):  Took a step towards the playoffs today vs UAM and might now have a tiny bit of breathing room. There are still 2 human games left, and a loss in any of them might leave Valdosta square on the bubble, tendency good side though.

Henderson State (9-1, WIS:38, SOS: 133): A SIM that came out of nowhere and managed to accumulate a good number of wins over other semi-decentish teams in OOC and has so far only slipped once in conference. It might only need one win from the games vs Delta, Valdosta and UAM. I’d give that maybe 20% chance of happening

LSC

Tomorrow are conference semifinals in both divisions. The Winner of UCO vs SEO and TAMC and ACU will almost certainly play in the CCG.

Locks:

SE Oklahoma Durant (9-1)

Central Oklahoma (10-0, WIS: 12, SOS: 106): The game tomorrow vs SEO is definitely only about conference supremacy and seeding.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Abilene Christian (8-2, WIS: 20, SOS: 31): It was a good schedule and 8-2 is ok. The daily MOVs are not always impressive though.

Texas A&M commerce (8-2, WIS: 27, SOS: 51):  Their resume feels like ACUs slightly smaller twin. Whoever wins tomorrow is safe unless he trips up vs a SIM. The one who loses will have to sweat it out, and TAMC would sweat more than ACU would.

MIAA

It may not be visible to everyone, but the conference IS improving and developing depth. That said though, unless NMSU gets upset, this is a one bid league with many teams on the fringes of or just outside the bubble picture. Southwest Baptist got eliminated by Lock Haven today.

Work left to do:

NW Missouri State (10-0, WIS: 15, SOS: 108): Is fast approaching should be in status. Only with Truman State as a real problem on the way to the CCG.  

Need help to get an at large:

Truman State (7-3, WIS: 50, SOS: 100): Winning out and losing in the CCG is likely not enough, even though the SOS of the north teams is likely to suffer much less. That said, it still suffered a lot today.

Washburn-Topeka (8-2, WIS: 53 SOS: 142): The SOS is so horrible that even if the only remaing loss were to come in the CCG, they’d be unlikely to make it in. They also kind of need to start helping their MOV.

NCC

Maybe if St. Cloud could sneak in, this conference could finally be more than one bid.

Locks:

Humboldt State (10-0)

Work to do:

St. Cloud State (7-3, WIS: 36, SOS: 28): This is the kind of team that really needs to push the MOV and it failed to do so today. Due to a likely decreasing SOS even ending up being 10-4 might leave them barely on the wrong side. But it does not necessarily have to.

NE-10

The NEC 10s conference WIS ranking (11^th) shows the problem of the conferences problem nicely. The humans did worse than usually and are now paying for it because the SIMs also sucked more than SIMs usually do. This is a two bid league at best.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Bryant (9-1, WIS: 18, SOS: 61): Despite a decent OOC performance, Bryant is paying for the conferences suckiness. I assume they’d get in if they lost to long Island on Sunday, but more losses than that would have them sweat.

Long Island (7-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 54): If the tough opponents hadn’t been counterbalanced by horrible OOC cupcakes, maybe there’d be a better chance. As it is, they most certainly need to beat Bryant.

Need help to get an at large:

Stonehill (7-3, WIS: 41, SOS: 79): Probably need to win the conference, as 10-4 is unlikely to be good enough with what is left on the schedule.

NSIC

The south division races is pretty much over already. But the question of whether there will be 1 or up to three teams remains.

Locks:

Minnesota Crookston (9-1).

Work left to do:

Northern State (7-3, WIS: 32, SOS: 26): Was down at the half but steamrolled Wayne State in the second. They remain in the souths drivers seat. Losing in the CCG would likely leave them square on the bubble but winning the conference is the safe play.

West Virginia State (7-3, WIS: 29, SOS: 15): While things probably end up well if WVSC wins out, the likely decreasing SOS is sure to keep them sweating at least a little bit.

PSAC

Slippery Rock keeps rolling, and Millersville has done the necessary to improve the odds of a rematch of last years CCG. West Chester and Bloomsburg were taken off the watch today.

Locks:

Slippery Rock (9-1, WIS: 3, SOS: 2): Now on its way to the CCG and no way they don’t make the playoffs.

Millersville (7-3, WIS: 10, SOS: 1): The win over ESUP keeps them firmly in the east race. And also makes them a lock for the playoffs. The SOS is simply that good

Should be in:

East Stroudsburg (9-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 73): The loss to Millersville takes the conference championship out of their own hands. But playoff wise they should still be decently safe.

Edinboro (8-2, WIS: 17, SOS: 16): Looks like last seasons blemish will be corrected this season, and Edinboro will be back in the playoffs. Todays loss hurt in terms of conference championship. In terms of playoffs it was no disaster, as Edinboro still seems decently safe.

Work left to do:

Kutztown (9-1, WIS: 35, SOS: 128): There are still no impressive wins on this resume, meaning that even though the SOS is likely to improve into the double digits, I am not sure they could afford to lose both to ESUP and Millersville. On the other hand, if they win both, they will also win the east.

Indiana (7-3, WIS: 33, SOS: 21): The win over California really helped to avoid disaster. I am now uncertain whether they need to upset Slippery Rock to get in. But they certainly need avoid upsets against everyone else.

California (6-4, WIS: 30, SOS: 6): The loss to Indiana s no disqualifier, but things are tightening for California. They need at least one but probably two wins vs Edinboro or Slippery Rock, neither an easy feat. Tomorrows game vs Edinboro could thus come close to burying their season if they lose.

RMAC

When I get down to the tenth conference, I am always happy that the RMAC is a fast story. 2 Bids, no questions.

Lock:

Western State (10-0)

Colorado Mines (10-0, WIS: 9, SOS: 93): Todays win was not pretty but enough to lock them up.

SAC

The SAC is one of my favorite conferences, since there are always so many hard to predict games around.  Today was a good example of this, since slight underdogs Mars Hill won and Lenoir Rhyne  was leading at the half. Could a SIM win the conference for a second time in a row?

Should be in:

Glennville (10-0, WIS: 11, SOS: 91): Even though there are still real opponents on the schedule they should be safe.

Work to do:

Carson-Newman (8-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 52): It was always clear that the Mars Hill game was not gonna be a gimme, but as it is now they have no margin of error left for any more losses, as the SOS is likely to decrease a decent bit.

Lenoir-Rhyne (8-2, WIS: 23, SOS: 53): It was a good effort, but LR is now not going to the CCG  and there is now less breathing room. Bubble teams everywhere will probably be interested if they can beat both WVIT and Newberry, as losing to any of those will probably leave LR square on the bubble.

Mars Hill (7-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 12): If Mars Hill is to make it, the likeliest way is via winning the conference…again. But with todays win over Carson Newman the chance getting in even if Mars Hill loses to Glennville in the CCG is still there.

SIAC

The playoff teams will likely be the same as always. It is clear now, that Quincy will be in the final, to trz and repeat a third time.

Locks:

Quincy (10-0)

Should be in:

Kentucky State (8-2, WIS:15, SOS:18): Beating a few SIMs away from lock status.

Work to do:

Lane (7-3, WIS: 21, SOS: 11): It was pretty much over at half time. That is likely no disaster, but winning everything else would be prudent, just to be safe.

Kentucky Wesleyan (9-1, WIS: 31, SOS: 119): I don’t think it will be good enough this SIM should lose to both Lane and Quincy as is to be expected, but since they keep winning, they are likely to test that theory.

Posted by orangepace on 5/9/2015 3:12:00 PM (view original):
great stuff as always.  quick question... what is MOV?

This was an almost boringly uneventful day in bubble terms. Quite a few teams killed their margins of error, but almost all of those teams actually had some margin of error.

CIAA

Sadly enough things will be boring until the CCG: only two teams will make it in.

Lock: NCCU (10-0)

Virginia State (9-2, WIS: 19 SOS: 36): Things are sure now.

GLIAC:

I took Ashland off the board, as the WIS and SOS rankings just did not make the necessary jumps.

Should be in:

Ferris State (9-2, WIS: 9, SOS: 13): Closing in on lock status.

Work left to do:

Saginaw Valley State (10-1, WIS: 26, SOS: 123): Keeps not impressing but winning the important games. Currently things look ok, losing before the CCG might spell doom though due to the SOS likely decreasing.

Wayne State (7-4, WIS: 58 SOS: 95): Taking care of business while waiting for the important games. The WIS ranking and number of losses is not looking good, but if they could beat both Findlay and Ferris, they might move close to the bubble.

Findlay (7-4, WIS: 40, SOS: 33): For the second day in a row, Findlay did all you can do against a cupcake. Findlays new coach inherited a tough schedule, one his team wasn’t quite ready for. Only one chance to drop one and no chances to really impress the committee. I think they’ll end up on the wrong side, but there is a chance I am wrong.

Need help:

GSC

UCA, Delta and Valdosta are moving ever closer to the playoffs. For the others it is not looking so good.

Shoud be in:

Central Arkansas (9-2, WIS: 11, SOS: 19). At the half it looked like West Alabama might knock of the second bubble watch team in a row, but UCA pulled through, and unless weird things happen, will now be in the playoffs.

Delta State (11-0, WIS: 21, SOS: 133): Delta has never slipped up, and todays W even helped the SOS.

Work to do:

West Georgia (9-2, WIS: 28, SOS: 82): Another unimpressive showing, but at least this time it was a win. The schedule still has UCA and 2 teams where West Georgia will be the favorite. A loss to UCA tomorrow may be just sustainable, but its not certain. Any other slip ups are definitely not sustainable

Valdosta State (10-1, WIS: 25, SOS: 116):  Took a step towards the playoffs today vs UAM and might now have a tiny bit of breathing room. There is still 1 human game left and Valdosta sure is the favorite, but a loss might leave Valdosta square on the bubble, tendency good side though.

Henderson State (9-2, WIS:38, SOS: 125): The loss to Delta had to be expected and even improved the SOS a good bit. But unless Henderson upsets both Valdosta and UAM I don’t see the playoffs happening.

LSC

The semifinals ended with the traditional winners. But playoff wise the conference is still probable to get 4 bids.

Locks:

SE Oklahoma Durant (10-1), Central Oklahoma (10-1)

Should be in:

Abilene Christian (9-2, WIS: 15, SOS: 16): It was a low scoring game, smashmouth, just the way ACU likes it. It has put ACU to the place where they should be mostly safe unless they lose a multitude of games I can’t imagine them losing.

Work left to do:

Texas A&M Commerce (8-3, WIS: 32, SOS: 45):  It hurt to lose to ACU, sure, because it is another season of not getting past them and again no CCG. And it was not good for the at large hopes, where TAMC was burnt badly last season (missing the playoffs as 32^nd due to a bid stealer. But while it would be close again this season things are still likely to end better if TAMC can take care of the remaining SIMS.

MIAA

It may not be visible to everyone, but the conference IS improving and developing depth. The first upset of NMSU means that maybe there may be two or even three teams making the playoffs.

Work left to do:

NW Missouri State (10-1, WIS: 18, SOS: 98): Squandered an undefeated regular season today, and now has to hope for help from Pittsburg state to win the conference. Playoff wise things are not at all lost, but more slip ups before the CCG need to be avoided.  

Truman State (8-3, WIS: 38, SOS: 61): That upset win over NMSU was just what they needed. That said, in order to make the playoffs there is still a good deal of work left to do, and winning the conference outright remains the only really safe way to get in.

Need help to get an at large:

Washburn-Topeka (9-2, WIS: 51 SOS: 144): The SOS is so horrible that even if the only remaing loss were to come in the CCG, they’d be unlikely to make it in. They also keep failing to help their MOV.

NCC

Maybe if St. Cloud could sneak in, this conference could finally be more than one bid.

Locks:

Humboldt State (10-0)

Work to do:

St. Cloud State (8-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 46): Really helped the MOV today and it better keep this up, for this is the kind of team that really needs to push the MOV. Due to a likely decreasing SOS even ending up being 10-4 might leave them on the wrong side. But it does not necessarily have to.

NE-10

Things are getting better for the league, but it still looks like a two bid league at best.

Should be in:

Bryant (10-1, WIS: 12, SOS: 59): I put Bryant to should be in, depite a tough game still being left, but the WIS ranking kept going up, despite the SOS not improving and now think look pretty stable to certain. Work left to do:

Long Island (8-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 73): Taking care of business for the moment, but they most likely need to beat Bryant.

Need help to get an at large:

Stonehill (8-3, WIS: 42, SOS: 91): Probably need to win the conference, as 10-4 is unlikely to be good enough with what is left on the schedule.

NSIC

The south division races is pretty much over already. But the question of whether there will be 1 or up to three teams remains.

Locks:

Minnesota Crookston (10-1).

Work left to do:

Northern State (8-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 37): Remain in the souths drivers seat. Losing in the CCG would likely leave them square on the bubble. Winning the conference is the safe play.

West Virginia State (8-3, WIS: 27, SOS: 20): While things probably end up well if WVSC wins out, the likely decreasing SOS is sure to keep them sweating at least a little bit.

PSAC

Slippery Rock keeps rolling, and Millersville has done the necessary to improve the odds of a rematch of last years CCG. West Chester and Bloomsburg were taken off the watch today.

Locks:

Slippery Rock (10-1), Millersville (8-3)

Should be in:

East Stroudsburg (10-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 93), Edinboro (9-2, WIS: 13, SOS: 12): Things would have to go pretty weird for them to miss the playoffs

Work left to do:

Kutztown (10-1, WIS: 33, SOS: 138): As far as it is possible in the PSAC, Kutztown still has not played anybody and we are going into day 12 now. There are still no impressive wins on this resume, meaning that even though the SOS is likely to improve into the double digits, I don’t think they could afford to lose both to ESUP and Millersville. But there is no hiding anymore, tomorrow is Millersville and the day after ESUP. I have no clue what happens if they go 1-1 over the last two games. On the other hand, if they win both, they will win the east.

Indiana (8-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 30): The win over California yeesterday really helped to avoid disaster. I am now uncertain whether they need to upset Slippery Rock to get in. But they certainly need to avoid upsets against everyone else.

California (6-5, WIS: 36, SOS: 6): That is now a 2 game losing streak, and the playoffs are slowly disappearing.  Maybe if they can upset Slippery Rock they may still get in. It is do or die from tomorrow.

RMAC

When I get down to the tenth conference, I am always happy that the RMAC is a fast story. 2 Bids, no questions.

Lock:

Western State (11-0), Colorado Mines (11-0):

SAC

The SAC is one of my favorite conferences, since there are always so many hard to predict games around.  Could a SIM win the conference for a second time in a row?

Should be in:

Glennville (10-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 78): I don’t think losing to Newberry was anywhere in the script, but it likely hurts seeding and Conference chances more than the playoff hopes.

Work to do:

Carson-Newman (9-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 41): It was always clear that the Mars Hill game was not gonna be a gimme, but as it is now they have no margin of error left for any more losses, as the SOS is likely to decrease a decent bit.

Lenoir-Rhyne (9-2, WIS: 23, SOS: 51): Impressive way of taking care of business today. Now if they can also take care of Newberry, they could start feeling decently safe.

Mars Hill (8-3, WIS: 29, SOS: 12): If Mars Hill is to make it, the likeliest way is via winning the conference…again. But with yesterdays win over Carson Newman the chance of getting in even if Mars Hill loses to Glennville in the CCG is getting more and more realistic.

Newberry (7-4, WIS: 41, SOS: 21): I took Newberry back onto the board with todays win over Glennville. There is potential for it being a short stay, but if they beat Lenoir-Rhyne tomorrow there starts to be aa more realistic opening toward the playoffs

SIAC

The playoff teams will likely be the same as always. It is clear now, that Quincy will be in the final, to trz and repeat a third time.

Locks:

Quincy (11-0),

Kentucky State (9-2, WIS: 14, SOS:27): I’ve seen enough: lock

Should be in:

Work to do:

Lane (8-3, WIS: 22, SOS: 14): Just need to keep serve vs the SIMs left on the schedule

Kentucky Wesleyan (9-2, WIS: 35, SOS: 99): The expected clear loss to Quincy means that KWC is now on the close to the bad sie of the bubble already. Probably would have to upset Lane. Since they keep winning vs the other SIMs, they are likely to test that theory.