Welcome to the opening of bubble watch season. If I learnt anything from the last two seasons, then it is that having a high SOS can indeed be positive. There have been more 4 and 5 loss teams making it in at the expense of 3 and 2 loss temas in the last 3 seasons than in the seasons before. The change has been at a level, where I am actually wondering if WIS changed the ranking formula without telling us. With that said, here comes the bubble watch.
CIAA
This conference is almost certainly a 2 bid conference again this season.
Lock: Virginia State (8-1, WIS: 5 SOS: 16), NCCU (8-1, WIS: 8 SOS:17)
Both teams would probably get in with three losses, and even with a good deal of imagination I can’t see more than two.
Should be in:
Work left to do: Winston Salem-State (6-3, WIS: 61 SOS: 95)
WSSU will need to spring the massive upset over NCCU to really have a shot.
Need massive help to get an at large:
Bowie State (4-5, WIS: 53 SOS: 8). Despite good SOS numbers, 5 losses is almost certainly too much, particularly as the SOS ranking is set to get worse.
GLIAC:
A conference whos lower and middle rung teams all played easy OOC scheds and in concert with the better teams all managed good results that now help each others SOS. The consequence is a massive number of teams still in contention, and likely a few more will make it than last season. Furthermore, both division races are very fun to keep an eye on, as divison winners are really not yet clear.
Locks:
Ferris State (8-1, WIS: 3, SOS: 2): The SOS is so high, that even two or three more losses are likely no problem at all.
Should be in:
Work left to do:
Findlay (8-1, WIS: 26, SOS: 89) : One of those SIMs with the best chances of making it in. There are still games against Ferris State and Wayne state on the schedule, so there is no certainty.
Wayne State (6-3, WIS: 52 SOS: 61): After the expected loss to Ferris State currently on the outside looking in. Definitely needs to win out. But there are only SIMS on the schedule… a few of them are beasty though.
Ashland (7-2, WIS: 38, SOS: 88): Somehow I missed out on Ashland in the conference preview. A snafu, because Ashland still has a real shot at the playoffs. If they only take one more loss through the rest of the schedule, tough but doable, then they just might end up on the right side of the bubble.
Saginaw Valley State (7-2, WIS: 32, SOS: 101): That missed overtime field goal vs GVSU might come to haunt SVSU. There is now no more margin for error in the division, as they’d likely be on the wrong side of the bubble. If a third loss came in the CCG, then SVSU would likely be square on the bubble.
Northern Michigan (6-3, WIS: 74, SOS: 127): If they can spring upsets over humans, it might be enough.
Grand Valley State (5-4, WIS: 39, SOS: 7): until tonight this was the season of missed chances for GVSU, with a loss to a SIM, and several failed upset bids. The win over SVSU keeps both GVSUs bubble and conference hopes alive though, because the SOS is so good that 4 losses is no disqualifier. A fifth might be though.
GSC
Result wise there is a total glut at the top, with three teams still undefeated, and two more boasting only one loss. All that OOC beating up on cupcakes created that. It could be a lot of teams making it in this season,… or not.
Should be in: Delta State (9-0, WIS: 21, SOS: 135): Valdosta State (9-0, WIS: 16, SOS: 112):
Wow those were cupcake schedules so far… that said, those are also 0-loss resumes. Still have to play a few real games including the one against each other though.
Central Arkansas (9-0, WIS: 17, SOS: 123). A similar story… only that they are even closer to being a lock, since the remaining schedule has fewer landmines.
Work left to do:
North Alabama (8-1, WIS: 58, SOS:141) Before today North Alabama was undefeated and ranked 70ieth (!), The SOS was so weak that even a drubbing by Valdosta helped a lot. That said, this is exactly the kind of schedule that allows one loss on the season to be sure and puts you on the bubble with two. So north Alabama has no more margin for error, and tomorrows game vs UAM is almost a must win.
Arkansas Monticello (8-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 57): got out being 2-1 out of a tough cross division, and is now taking its decent SOS into the last 4 games, which include several games where they will be underdogs. Going 2-2 would do the trick. Going 1- 3 would put them right on the bubble I think.
Need massive help to get an at large:
West Georgia (6-3, WIS: 71, SOS: 121): Has a better SOS this season than last, but a third loss put them probably on the bad side of the bubble.. and that is assuming everything goes well from here on out…, and with UCA coming up…
West Alabama (4-5, WIS: 45 SOS: 10): The SOS is good, the number of losses… not so much.
LSC
The LSC only got in three last season. Could it be four or five this season?
Locks:
SE Oklahoma Durant (9-0, WIS: 1, SOS: 4) : WIS number one, undefeated and only one real chance for a loss on the remaining sched.
Should be in:
Central Oklahoma (8-1, WIS: 12, SOS: 44): one or two easy wins away from lock status.
Work left to do:
Abilene Christian (8-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 109): A three loss season would possibly put them on the bubble, but ACU is set to move up to "should be" in or "lock" if they win as favorites against Texas A&M commerce and West Texas in the next two games.
Texas A&M commerce (7-2, WIS: 35, SOS: 78): It was a tough bit of work against Angelo State, but the second half led to a W and helped the SOS. If they lose only to ACU, and win out the rest, then they are likely to juuuust squeeze in on the right side of the bubble.
Angelo State (7-2, WIS: 36, SOS: 96): That is the kind of SIM that helps the conference get more teams into the playoffs. Unlikely to get in itself though, as at least one more loss seems guaranteed.
West Texas A&M (7-2, WIS: 60, SOS: 124): An upstart team, that had the ideal cupcake sched for a rebuild. But is unlikely to make it due to heavy underdog roles vs ACU and Commerce.
MIAA
With only three teams above .500, honestly it’s a race for the autobid, as there will likely not be two teams getting in. The conference race itself is interesting though. Whether the team that wins the conference also squeezes into the top 32 or steal a bid, is another question.
Work left to do:
NW Missouri State (7-2, WIS: 49, SOS: 114): Currently leading the north, and if a loss comes in the CCG game, there is maybe a shot at an at-large.
Cheyney (7-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 71): Just had an important win over Washburn Topeka, that puts them in the drivers seat in the south. Whether winning all but the CCG would be enough for an at large is hard to predict. I would tend to say no due to the conferences overall bad record tanking their SOS.
Need massive help to get an at large: Washburn-Topeka (5-4, WIS: 42 SOS: 13): Currently the SOS would still be in reach of a at large, but it is set to get worse.
NCC
Same as last season: Unless Humboldt state gets upset, this is a one bid conference. The east race is interesting though.
Should be in:
Humboldt State (8-1, WIS: 10, SOS: 31): Safely on its way to the CCG, close to lock status.
Work to do:
South Dakota State (7-2, WIS: 37, SOS: 79): Probably needs the autobid, maybe with a shot if the only new loss comes in the CCG
Need massive help to get an at large:
St. Cloud State (5-4, WIS: 40 SOS: 20): Currently the SOS would still be in reach of an at large, but it is set to get worse. Winning the east and getting another crack at Humboldt is still an option too, though.
NE-10
Right now this looks like a 2 or three bid conference…. Unless Stonehill manages to somehow win the conference that is.
Should be in: Bryant (8-1, WIS: 18, SOS: 90): Close to a lock, with only reall the game vs Long Island looking difficult.
Work left to do:
Long Island (7-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 38): Could probably also swallow a loss to Bryant, but winning out is the safe bet.
Assumption (7-2, WIS: 34, SOS: 105): Despite the loss to Stonehill, things are not yet dire. If they win out against all the SIMs left on the schedule, I think they will get in.
Need massive help to get an at large:
Stonehill (5-4, WIS: 43, SOS: 15): The win over Assumption helped. But probably primarily because it was an important step for a shot at an autobid.
NSIC
Locks:
Minnesota Crookston (9-0, WIS: 4, SOS: 26): Nothing left, that should scare a team of this caliber before the championship game.
Should be in:
Work left to do:
West Virginia State (8-1, WIS: 22, SOS: 77): Things are looking nice but if things go wrong and there are two more losses, I imagine that WVST would be right on the bubble
Northern State (7-2, WIS: 28, SOS: 40): A nice win over Wayne State. Currently probably remaining on the right side, even if the meeting with WVSU should go wrong. Probably.
Minnesota Duluth (6-3, WIS: 44, SOS: 36): There is no shame in losing to UMC.IF they win out, their current SOS would probably be good enough. But it might decrease, and put Duluth right on the bubble.
Concordia (6-3, WIS: 71, SOS: 95): Might get in with 3 losses. But the probable loss to WVS would end it.
Need massive help to get an at large:
Wayne State (5-4, WIS: 68, SOS: 65): I don’t really see it. Yes the remaing schedule gives opportunities to shine, but they really need to take advantage of every single one of them.
PSAC
Is the PSAC still the deepest conference in division II. Yes. Will it get 7 teams into the playoffs again…not quite so certain. Particularly in the West it looks more like a two out of 4 race.
Locks: Mansfield (9-0, WIS: 6, SOS: 46): Yes there are still 3 potential losses on the schedule, but those would seriously not endanger Mansfield.
Should be in:
Millersville (8-1, WIS: 11, SOS: 27): That was an awesome win over Kutztown. Even if theyd lose both of the games left to human oponents, they would likely stay on the good side of the bubble.
Work left to do:
Kutztown (7-2, WIS: 13, SOS: 19): After the great win over slippery rock, came the fall to Millersville. In terms of the playoffs this is not a huge problem, but it means that Kutztown needs to beat either East Stroudsburg or Millersville to avoid any bubblish feelings
Indiana (6-3, WIS: 47, SOS: 87): That loss to California hurt. Unless Indiana can win out on its really tough schedule, I am not optimistic they get in.
California (7-2, WIS: 33, SOS: 69): California did not leave itself much margin with its cupcake OOC schedule. That win over Indiana was thus important to create some of that margin. I still don’t think that losses to both Slipery Rock and Edinboro would be sustainable though.
Slippery Rock (6-3, WIS: 9, SOS: 1): I think it is safe to say, that with Slippery Rocks schedule, even 5 losses on the season would be ok. There are still 3 real oponents left. It is not like I really think it likely that Jilin is losing all three of those games, but…there is still work left to do.
East Stroudsburg (8-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 80): Needs at least one more win over a human opponent, two to be totally sure.
Edinboro (6-3, WIS: 41, SOS: 49): Already three losses, and several good teams still on the schedule. The SOS will not end up quite as great as last seasons, meaning that they probably can’t afford more than one more loss.
RMAC
As always a fast story. This season, as opposed to last season, probably not a one bid conference.
Lock:
Western State (9-0, WIS: 2, SOS: 24) At the top of the WIS rankings with no serious opponents left to come.
Should be in:
Colorado Mines (8-1, WIS: 27, SOS: 116): Despite a SOS that will get worse, it will still be better than last season, and a second loss would likely be ok, and I don’t see where that could come from other than the CCG.
SAC
Everything in the SAC is so hard to predict, except for Mars Hill indeed looking like it will make the CCG. The West is definitely one of the most interesting division races. Lots of teams that could make it, and none that are really safe yet. I did leave Lenoir-Rhyne out though, as I don’t see them getting in other than with an autobid (also unlikely) anymore.
Work to do:
Newberry (7-2, WIS: 46, SOS:117), Things could still end well, but that loss to Glenville is a problem, as it ate away pretty much all margin for error, that Newberry had, since the SOS is pretty bad.
WV tech (8-1, WIS: 6, SOS: 12): The team second closest to a feeling of certainty in the SAC. The win over Lenoir-Rhyne is bringing them close to should be in. But if things don’t go well and there are two losses to glennville and newberry, then maybe they’d have to sweat the bubble.
Glennville (8-1, WIS: 15, SOS: 74): That was a very valuable win over Newberry. Not only is Glennville now leading the west, but it bought some margin of error. A victory over Lenoir-Rhyne tomorrow would almost seal it.
Mars Hill (7-2, WIS: 29, SOS: 42): This SIM is in the drivers seat to win the east. Unless a team like Carson-Newman can upset them before the CCG, then I think it will likely go to the playoffs.
SIAC
I see exactly 3 teams making it in. we are well on our way to that point.
Should be in:
Quincy (9-0, WIS: 7, SOS: 56): If only the conferences number of OOC wins were higher, this would already be a lock. It is close as it is, with two losses no problem, and really only two tough games left.
Work to do:
Lane (9-0, WIS: 14, SOS: 133): Lane can probably, but not certainly afford to lose twice, and is thus in a good position, buut not yet a “should be in”. This situation is brought on by a pretty horrible SOS. To be fair, champOU2000 scheduled up for next season.
Kentucky State (8-1, WIS:30, SOS:125): quite close to a “should be in”. The SOS is also pretty bad though, so tripping up to a SIM might be problematic.