Welcome to this seasons incarnation of the by now almost traditional blog.

In terms of the season preview: I am going to piece meal this. Why? Because it is fun to do it like that. Today I will give you the teams that Did not make the top 15.
And yes I know... the GUESS rankings are not out yet, teams are still recruiting and there are several astrikss necessary. But what else do you have to read over the weekend, and most people are at least close to done with recruiting anyway and finally: speculation is fun.

 

If you wonder how I come up with the teams I look at more profoundly: I at least threw a look at a team if it was: top 15 either in WIS end ranking last season, yatzr tool, coaches or press poll, or top 10 in my last seasons ranking. Unsurprisingly this also included all teams that made the second round of the playoffs last season. At the end of doing this, I figured to do a top 15 instead of a top 10, since I had ranked hose teams in my mind before finishing.

 

 

But as always, first here are a few games during the non-conf that you might want to keep an eye on:

Day 1:

As is often the case: The season starts with rather few real flashy games.

Western State @ Northern State

Kutztown @ SEO Durant

Northwest Missouri State @ Central Oklahoma: Both teams could get themselves an early at large jolt.

Day 2:

Wow… day 2 is really boring this season:

Carson Newman @ Delta State: This game should give us some approximative idea how good Delta really is.

Northwest Missouri State @ SEO Durant

Day 3:

Western State @ Virginia State

Ferris State @ Central Oklahoma

Day 4:

Days 4 and 5 are much more like it. Plenty of fun games to see here.

NCCU @ Western State: A first full test for NCCUs new coach, a game both teams will want for getting high seeding.

Central Oklahoma @ Lane

Virginia State @ Slippery Rock: I assume this game is a coincidence. But it is a beautiful one to see early how the two remaining classes at Slippery match up with a team that is somewhat less talented at the top, but is likely enough talented to take advantage of it’s superior depth.

Kentucky State @ Valdosta State: Two teams around those top ten positions trying to assure the playoffs early and start gunning for a really high seed.

Indiana (PA) @ Ferris State

Mars Hill @ Abilene Christian

Mansfield @ Central Arkansas

Day 5:

UMC @ Glenville: UMCs toughest OOC game this season. Still, there is a clear favorite here.

NCCU @ SEO Durant: Another interesting game testing NCCUs new coach already in OOC, and a game that risks to show SEO the limits of its youthful team.

Lane @ Northwestern Missouri State.

Central Oklahoma @ Western State

Mars Hill @ Kentucky State

Bryant vs Ferris State

Abilene Christian @ Newberry

 

 

 

Here are already the teams that did I looked at, and wrote something about, but that did not make the top 15: 

Slippery Rock (YATZR tool 32^nd, Press/coaches ranking 18^th / 21^st )

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 3^rd. Conference Champion.

The PSACs flagship is wavering mightily due to not recruiting for the second season in a row. The zombie status didn’t show nearly as much as one would have thought last season, but this season the holes will start to show more and it will be easier to cut into SRs depth. That said the upper classmen classes still provide elite skill players, and the top 4 at each defensive position are also frightening. But the O-line only has 3 real players left. And if any top 15 team manages to cut into the defenses depth, then they should really be able to take advantage of it this season. Furthermore, punting will suck. Overall I believe there will still be several coaches upset to lose to this zombie, but I don’t see more than a second round in the playoffs.

Glennville (YATZR tool 15^th, Press/coaches ranking 9^th / 8^th)

Last Season: Round 1, WIS: 17^th, Conference Champion.

An experienced squad with 15 seniors and 13 Juniors and top ten quality lines. Another team with some problems at linebacker. The OOC starts of with cupcakes and ends with UMC.

Valdosta State (YATZR tool 18^th, Press/coaches ranking 10^th)

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 21^st.

The O is lead primarily by a good RB and no holes or strengths otherwise. Talentwise the D is solid top 20 quality, no less, no more. The OOC basically has a bunch of cupcakes and Kentucky State on day 4.

Abilene Christian (YATZR tool 21^st, Press/coaches ranking 13^th)

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 16^st. Division Champion.

I like the D better than the O, but both look like top 20 units, but not really like top 10 units. The OOC is neither super impressive nor horrible, including games vs Mars Hill and Newberry.

Central Arkansas (YATZR tool 38^th, Press/coaches ranking 31^st)

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 14^th

Managed to squeeze into the second round and top 15 last season. A feat that will not be easy to repeat since recruiting has not been quite at this level through the last four seasons. That said the TE is likely the best in all of DII, and they probably have a top 15 front seven. If UCA is able to translate the increased vision into improved recruiting particularly on the O-line and at QB then they can move up the rankings in the next few seasons

Long Island (YATZR tool 23^rd, Press/coaches ranking 15^th)

Last Season: missed Playoffs, WIS: 36th.

Failed to recruit this season, and will pay for it with bad line play. A pity, because the rest of the d would have been salty.

Humboldt State (YATZR tool 18^th, Press/coaches ranking 10^th)

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 8^th. Conference Champion.

The best class of players left, and now that missed recruiting class two seasons ago will really start to hurt as the O-line is far away from top ten status and there will always at least one exploitable D-back on the field. That said the best skill players are still very good. Nothing but cupcakes in OOC.

Teams I’d throw a look at if I had more time (no particular order):

Grand Valley State, Central Oklahoma, Texas A&M Commerce, Indiana (PA), East Stroudsburg, Mansfield, Northwest Missouri, Mars Hill, Carson Newman, Stonehill, Newberry.
 

 

 

ok, Since it is sunday, and the season starts tomorrow, I figured I'd give you the whole rest today:

 

 

1. University of Minnesota Crookston (YATZR tool 1^st, Press/coaches ranking 1^st).

Last Season: Quarter Finals, WIS: 5^th, Conference Champion.

Won it all 2 seasons ago with a young team, so that it was almost a disappointment when everything ended in the quarters last season, with a still young team. Now –with 19 seniors- this season UMC is definitely not young, just awesomely talented. It remains to be seen whether anyone can really challenge them during the regular season, but it doesn’t feel probable. Particularly moving those O and D-lines will be a nigh impossible feat for the best of opponents. If one is really looking for a weak spot, maybe (but not really) WR would be the spot.

2. Western State of Colorado(YATZR tool 2^nd, Press/coaches ranking 6^th/8^th)

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 4^th. Conference Champion.

Gliatta remains probably the most consistent recruiter in DII. And while Western has without fail been a contender since hes been there (25 consecutive conference championships and counting), the last natty is now 13 seasons ago. This may change this season. Western has probably the only D-line to rival UMCs. A nitpicker might point to RB and WR as the biggest problems, but this may be partially mitigated by awesome quarterbacking. The OOC schedule has 4 top 25 teams including a visit by NCCU. If western can manage 4-1 or 5-0, good seeding is highly likely.

3. Quincy (YATZR tool 5^th, Press/coaches ranking 2^nd)

Last Season: Championship game, WIS: 6^th, Division Champion.

Quincy did not just move up the rankings due to two consecutive Final appearances. The team is simply improving its talent level and also its experience level. That said I still feel like a decent draw helped with last seasons final appearance. Still one has to be able to take advantage of opportunities, and Quincy had the game planning and talent to do it and looks likely to have all that is needed again and likely more than last season. The big class is now sophomores, the whole defense has improved. On offense the most important question mark is likely running back, but other than that, it is hard to find significant holes.

We will have to wait for the SIAC games to see what the team is worth , because frankly, Quincy’s OOC schedule is totally devoid of opponents likely to push a Natty contender such as Quincy.

4. North Carolina Central University (YATZR tool 4^th Press/coaches ranking 4^th)

Last Season: National Champion, WIS: 1^st, Conference Champion

Even though coach Orangepace left NCCU, NCCU still has to be reckoned with. No one can be totally certain what to expect from new coach pyt100 who takes over the the defending champion, but he has a short resume that includes plenty of conference championships. Alas most of those were won in division III.

Carlos Carillo might be the best O-linemen that division II has ever seen. So even with 2 good Seniors gone, the O-line will improve to awesome level. While the team is still very talented and not yet young either, some of those 15 seniors who graduated, will leave small holes to fill, and most of the important ones are in the defensive back seven where NCCU will be more vulnerable than last season.

5. SE Oklahoma Durant (YATZR tool 3^rd, Press/coaches ranking 3^rd/2^nd)

Last Season: Final Four, WIS: 2^nd, Conference Champion.

UMC and Quincy have proven in the last two seasons, that being young is not quite as problematic as I had thought. So where to put this seasons SEO Durant, that has lost 19 quality seniors, when it is still one of the 5 most talented teams? While the Offense will still be dangerous, the defense certainly will suffer a bit from the blood letting.

6. Millersville (YATZR tool 11^th, Press/coaches ranking 7^th/ 6^th)

Last Season: Quarterfinals, WIS: 13^th

Mojolads team is one I seem to consistently underevaluate, so this season I put it higher. This is not only due to my experiences with their upsets, but also due to the fact that this team is more talented and experienced than it has been in a while. How far away is Millersville from the above teams? Not far at all, they could beat anyone in a single game, but the consistency is likely not gonna be good enough to win it all. What is currently missing to get to the next level? Probably better WRs and LBs. They can absolutely compete with the elite teams on both lines though.

The OOC schedule is full of SIMs. Some of those are among the better SIMs, but still, this is no fun to watch as a third party.

 

7. Delta State (YATZR tool 12^th, Press/coaches ranking 4^th)

Last Season: Quarterfinals, WIS: 9^th, Conference Champion.

Delta made the quarters two times in a row, and maybe this could even be improved upon this season. I am not super impressed with QB and TE, but WR and the OL are on par with elite teams and might kind of make up for this. The D is overall solid, and particularly the front seven will have some people in a good bit of trouble.

8. Kentucky State (YATZR tool 6^th, Press/coaches ranking 12^th / 13^th)

Last Season: Round 1, WIS: 11^th, Conference Champion.

Was back to winning the conference last season, no small feat with Quincy and Lane also being in the SIAC. Sadly enough that did not parlay to playoff success. And Kentucky state too (like all the SIACs top teams) has a fairly experienced squad this season. QB is still not impressive and linebacker is thin at best, but the OL is a monster that might make up for some of that.

The OOC has several interesting games, but no test against the very best. 

 

9. Edinboro (YATZR tool 12^th, Press/coaches ranking 17^th)

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 15^st.

Great Quarterbacking and a top WR should combine for a potent passing attack. While the O-line clearly lacks depth, the first string is elite. While the D overall is not at the level of the Offense, it is still solid and devoid of superobvious holes.

A game with GVSU is the most interesting thing on the OOC schedule.

10. Lane College (YATZR tool 8^th, Press/coaches ranking 7^th/ 6^th)

Last Season: Round 1, WIS: 19^th.

The old coach left a schedule with loads of decentish teams, without any of them being the favorite vs Lane. 5-0 and a good SOS seem probable, but needs to be earned. Not only that, the team is also on the first of two apex seasons within its 4 seasons cycle. It will be interesting to see how much the new coach can do with it. One of the things setting Lane apart from the other teams in this area of the ranking it is quality Linebacker talent and depth. At St. Clouds dodgersfan had built and would have challenged for the conference this season, but in terms of game planning, this is a whole other level.

 

11. Virginia State (YATZR tool 10^th, Press/coaches ranking 15^th/16^th)

Last Season: Final Four, WIS: 12^th, Division Champion

Virginia State made the semis last season. But it will be difficult to repeat that feat after replacing 16 players. How much can an awesome number 1 WR compensate inadequate quarterbacking? VSC will find out this season. It will have help by both lines that are elite. The OOC schedule has two very interesting games in the matchup with Western and then on day 3 the game vs Slippery. The rest should be mostly manageable for Virginia State.

12. Bryant (YATZR tool 10^th, Press/coaches ranking 11^th).

Last Season: Quarter Finals, WIS: 7^th, Conference Champion.

Quality linebackers and depth at all positions are arguments to rank this team higher. But a lack of any other obvious strong points (or holes) has me rank them here. It will
be a fun OOC schedule with all games against teams that are very somewhere between 15 and 40ieth in the YATZR tool ranking.

13. Northern State (YATZR tool 7^th, Press/coaches ranking 21^st / 19^th)

Last Season: Round 1, WIS: 28^th, Division Champion.

There is some serious discrepancy here, between the Yatzr tool evaluation and the rankings, probably primarily due to not many players being left after 16 leaving seniors. While the skill position players are not impressing me and depth could be better across the board, both the O-line and the overall defense are easily top ten quality. I feel they might grind out a lot of low scoring games even against elite opponents.

14. Kutztown (YATZR tool 14^th, Press/coaches ranking 13^th/12^th)

Last Season: Round 1, WIS: 31^st.

There is only one tough game on the OOC schedule, but it is a doozy vs SEO Durant on day 1. Kutztown had 15 Seniors graduate and is now on the somewhat young side, particularly the O-line will have 3 good players and then be rather vulnerable from there on out, but the defensive back seven are also lacking some depth. That said the overall team is still highly competitive, and has great quarterbacking and very decent running backs.

 

 

15. Ferris State. (YATZR tool 16^th, Press/coaches ranking 22^nd)

 

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 10^th. Conference Champion.

The offense has one of each: elite WR, RB and quality QB. Due to 18 leaving players there is not so much quality at O-line, and lack of depth on the defense, but overall the team is still a bit underranked by yazr and the coaches.

Jmayhew always has commendable OOC schedules, and this season again I think the OOC has nothing but fun games. 2 against against top 20 teams, all the others against human teams with shots at the playoffs. How Ferris does will decide on how easy the playoffs come, and how high seeding might be.

So Wad up wid dat ?   What is Millersville, chopped liver ?  

Always the bridesmaid never the bride. Mojo: Going roughly 8-0 against the best of the PSAC - the undisputed superior conference - means nothing.  It is expected of the PSAC Killer.  Others see Millersville on their schedule and worry...we see Little Sisters of the Poor and expect victory.

Lol... (fake) trash talk before the season... always nice :)
Put up the rest. Hope everybody will have a fun season.

What "fake" ? !    Looking forward to taking you down in the NC Dachmann. Right after we demolish Brygold. It's time for the PSAC Killer to get his shlong
                            caught in his zipper   .;    

Posted by mojolad on 5/31/2015 1:09:00 PM (view original):
What "fake" ? !    Looking forward to taking you down in the NC Dachmann. Right after we demolish Brygold. It's time for the PSAC Killer to get his shlong
                            caught in his zipper   .;    

I think the fake part dachmann was referring to was that he knew this ensuing comment would be some far-fetched reverie that would only occur in an alternate reality or parallel universe where everything is opposite of what actually happens on earth.  Turns out he is quite the prognosticator.

LOL/JK GL this season MOJO - see you in the playoffs......

Prognosticator !  Are we allowed to talk dirty like that on these boards  ?    
                                Thanks Brygold. I "hope" so !   Your team is pretty assured to be there.  But my conference doesn't allow anything to be gained  easily. 

Somehow I had the lack of oversight not to put my game tomorrow vs Indiana into the games to watch on day 3.... it is a number 1 vs number 2 game according to the coaches and press rankings...
rankings this early in the season are fun :)

Finally done with this. I hope yall enjoy the read.

 

12. NCC, GUESS rankings: 12^th, WIS ranking after day 4: 12^th , Current record: 19-41

When a conferences best GUESS ranked team is a SIM that is ranked 40ieth, you know the conference is not deep.

The favorite: Humboldt State (5-0)

Contenders: Augustana (3-2)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: mmmhhh.. nobody actually

Humboldt State is still underranked in GUESS, due to a missed class that are now juniors. That said Humbboldt has some O-line problems. It is hard to see anyone other than Augustana with a shot at taking advantage of that though, as other conference members lines are nowhere near better and Humboldt clearly has the best skill players in the conference. Augustana is a SIM at the end of its cycle, having 21 seniors. It is a pretty even team with no particular weaknesses, and maybe that is enough to take the conference. If you just look at GUESS it is also pretty awful, that after Augustana and Humboldt there is a gap until the 90ies! Still, one might want to mention that St. Cloud State and South Dakota State recruited ok, but due to missed classes by previous coaches and cycle related issues are just not near competitive this season.

11. MIAA GUESS ranking: 11^h, WIS ranking after day 4: 11^th, Current record: 26-34

The conference is still improving and I have seriously thought about putting it higher. The MIAA actually has 6 teams in the GUESS top 60. The problem is, that none of them has reached the top 20 yet. But when you think about that, this might also make for some fun conference play with a lot of tight games. What it likely will not mean though, is that there will be a lot of at-large bids.

The favorite:  NW Missouri State (2-3)

Contenders: Truman State (2-3), Lock Haven (4-1), Pittsburg State (2-3)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs:, Cheyney (0-5), Missouri Southern (3-2)

NW Missouri had to replace a big departing class, yet has still the most talent. It will have to overcome some youth, particularly on the defensive side. Still, the winner of the last two seasons is the presumptive favorite, as the talent gap is wide enough that even the youth should not really play a major role. Truman State, got mostly eaten by a tough OOC schedule. For them the D is ahead of the O, which has rs sophomores at QB and RB.  Lock haven made a big jump forward this season, but here too, the offense is clearly behind the defense. Pittsburg State also has an almost identical team talent to Lock haven and Truman State, same O and D. They have a tougher road to the division crown than the other south teams though.

 Cheyney and Missouri Southern are two SIMs that might score a few upsets and make the conference race more interesting. SW Baptist is slightly rebuilding this season due to a big freshmen class

Top 3 regular season games:

I could have named a lot more games, as it is hard to predict which teams will be playing for the championship in the end.

1.      Truman State – NW Missouri on day 10

Probably for the north

2.      Truman State vs Lock Haven on day 8

Lock haven might need this one to keep winning the south in their own hands.

3.      Lock Haven vs NW Missouri day 7

 

10. RMAC GUESS ranking 10^th, WIS ranking after day 4: 9^th , Current record: 22-38

The favorite: Western State (4-1)

Contenders: None

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Colorado Mines (3-2), Adams State (3-2)

Western State had some interesting OOC games, including a loss to NCCU. But nothing of worry. WSSC is still the big favorite and a national championship contender. Otherwise there is Colorado Mines, who will have to fight to make the playoffs this season, and Adams State a SIM on the good part of the cycle, also still with hope for an at large.

Top 3 regular season games:

1.      Western State vs Adams State on day 9

2.      Colorado Mines vs Adams State, day 7

 

9. NE-10 GUESS rankings: 7^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 8^th current record: 26-34

Long Island failed to recruit, Stonehill is now a SIM. Bryant id the favorite by default.

Top teams

The Favorite: Bryant (4-1)

Contenders: Long Island (5-0), Stonehill (3-2),

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Assumption (1-4)

Despite being younger than last season, it feels like Bryant is a bigger favorite than last season. . Long Island, already having taken SIM recruits las season, did not recruit this season, and now has below 0 depth on the lines. Stonehill, despite being a SIM got great recruiting again, and was human coached for a good time before. Talentwise this is by a small distance the best defence of the conference,  but the skill positions are a good distance away from Bryants talent level. I don’t really think Assumption could beat Bryant, but maybe they could beat Stonehill.

Top 3 regular season games:

1.      Bryant vs Long Island on day 10

For the east

2.      Stonehill vs Long Island on day 6

3.      Stonehill vs Assumption on day 13

This will likely be a conference semifinal.

8. Lone Star Conference GUESS ranking: 8^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 6^th current record: 26-34

My favorite conference will sadly be ranked a bit lower this season. Reasons are the less than stellar OOC record, the decreasing GUESS ranking and finally the rebuilding happening at several places.

The Favorite: Oklahoma Durant (4-1).

Contenders: Abilene Christian (4-1), Central Oklahoma (1-4)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Texas A&M commerce (5-0)

SEO lost 19 players to graduation. That left some holes, particularly on the defense. That said, this still is clearly the most talented team and will probably win the conference. The gap is a lot smaller though.

UCO also lost 16 players, but of lesser quality. While the top talent is not far below that of ACU, there are some depth problems at quite a few positions including the lines. Thee overscheduling in OOC also means, that an at large will need very good results in conference.

The north may be a bit down this season, but the south is up.

Abilene Christian did not come unblemished out of the OOC, but is still in pretty good shape. While the D is almost as talented as SEOs, the O is not quite at that level.

Texas A&M commerce is the only undefeated team left in the conference, and with a big senior class present, this might be the season TAMC will be attacking this season,, which will be helped by the best QB in the conference. Both lines are also competitive, and generally depth is good. It is unlikely to be enough against a team like SEO, but the playoffs and maybe the division are both targets

 

Top 3 regular season games:

1.      SEO vs Abilene Christian on day 6

This has been the final 5 seasons running

2.      Texas A&M Commerce vs ACU on day 11

This game probably decides the south

3.      Texas A&M Commerce vs UCO on day 7

Somehow I feel an upset coming.

 

7. South Atlantic Conference GUESS ranking: 4^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 4^th current record: 31-29

The conference has taken great strides from where it was three seasons ago. There are now 6 human coaches plus one of the best SIMs. So there is maybe not a glut of top quality, but a lot of fun depth.

The favorite: Glennville (4-1)

The Contenders: Mars Hill (4-1), Carson-Newman (4-1),

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Lenoir-Rhyne (3-2), West Virginia Tech (1-4), Newberry (1-4), Catawba (2-3)

Glennville finally won the conference again last season. The goal has to be to repeat, and get to the 3^rd playoff round for the first time since 14 seasons ago. It helps that Glenvilles cross divison is easy . The biggest challenger is probably Mars Hill, the only team that has similar or even better lines and linebackers than Glennville. It is mostly an experienced squad, but QB and the other skill positions are really not impressive. With Carson Newman there is a third challenger with surprisingly good lines, and a better QB than both Mars Hill and Glennville. The weakness here is the defensive back seven.
Newberry may be a SIM, but it is the SIM with the best RBs and WRs, and the lines are likely good enough to let the skill players go to work. The depth on defense is bad though, making the defensive back seven very vulnerable. I can imagine a number of upsets, but not really the conference title. Lenoir-Rhyne had a tough OOC, and apart from two losses, there was also a nice win over Lane.  With the biggest class being juniors, LR might start to get closer to the playoffs again. The primary problem will probably be, that the lines can’t really keep up with the conference brethren. Even Catawba might be good enough for a few upsets. While TE, WR and RB are not great, there is quality on D and on the lines to at least keep in games. Finally WVIT failed to recruit this season. There are no WRs, and the lines are not awesome, but this team too, could pull a few upsets.

 

Top 3 games:

1.      Carson Newman at Mars Hill on day 11

Probably the best game in the east.

2.      Newberry vs Glennville on day 13

Who knows, maybe this will still have meaning to the west.

3.      Carson Newman vs Newberry on day 6

Two good teams that could use this win for their division races

 

6. CIAA GUESS ranking: 6^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 10^th, current record: 26-34

The CIAA comes off an awesome season: NCCU won the Natty, Virginia State made the final four. But behind them there remains a huge gap.

Top teams

The favorite: NCCU (5-0)

Contenders: Virginia State (4-1)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs:

NCCU vs Virginia State will be the final again. Both teams had to replace decently sized classes, but remain really good. NCCUs new coach in particular has already gotten two good scalps in Western State and SEO.

Top 3 regular season games

1.      NCCU-Virginia State, on season day 6

Almost certainly a preview of the championship game

2.      WSSU vs Virginia State on season day 8

3.      WSSU at NCCU on day 11

 

5. Northern Sun GUESS rankings: 3^rd, WIS ranking after day 5: 7^th, current record: 31-29

UMC is still going extremely strong. The teams behind UMC are not really managing to close in. Well, maybe northern is.

Top teams

The favorite:  Minnesota Crookston, (5-0)

Contenders: Northern State (4-1)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: West Virginia State (3-2)

UMC won it all two seasons ago, and this season they didn’t have max vision…. WIS can be weird. In any case this is a bona fide national title contender  (the favorite to me) on the up part of its cycle, and despite northern State doing some things right, I would bet my money on UMC winning the conference.

Northern Sates won 4 OOC games and played one tough one: NCCU who punches in the same weight class as UMC. The result was not encouraging. Despite that this is the only team with a slight shot at unseating UMC, due to good lines.

West Virginia State will try to keep Northern from even reaching the CCG, and due has no a 3 and counting playoff streak, and this just might be dukers best team yet. While the team can’t keep up with the lines, on the skill positions it might actually have a tiny advantage.

Top 3 regular season games:

1.      West Virginia State vs Northern State on day 9

This game is probably for the south. And maybe also for entry to the playoffs

2.      UMC-West Virginia State on day 8

A good game , but it will be lopsided.

3.      West Virginia State vs Winona State on day 6

One of the scrappiest SIM teams this season, will test West Virginia State, who is actually ranked behind Winona in GUESS

 

4. GLIAC GUESS ranking: 9^th, WIS ranking after day 4: 3^rd current record: 39-21

I had the GLIAC tenth last season and it will be higher this season, due to the OOC going way better. Also the number of potential playoff teams increased.

The favorite:  Ferris State (5-0)

Contenders: GVSU (5-0)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Findlay (5-0), Saginaw Valley (4-1)

Ferris State is the clear favorite, carried by elite skill position players. Overall this certainly is the most talented team, but with a bit of rebuilding decresing depth at several positions, GVSU might be in striking distance. Particularly the back seven of GVSU is better than that of Ferris state. Behind those two Findlay and SVSU are hoping for upsets and are currently in decent positions to get at –larges. Their Talent levels are actually rather similar, as Findlay is underranked in GUESS and has actually better skill position players, but suffers from some depth problems. SVSU also has the advantage of a clearly easier cross division schedule than GVSU.

Top 3 regular season games

1.      Ferris State vs GVSU on day 7

Potentially a preview of the Final

2.      Ferris State vs Findlay on day 12

Probably for the west

3.      SVSU vs GVSU on day 10

Maybe for the east

A  Findlay win could help SVSU. Also both teams will need this one to help their at large chances.

 

3. SIAC, GUESS ranking: 2^nd, WIS ranking after day 5: 5^th, current record: 330-30

According to GUESS, the hole between the SIAC and the PSAC is 40% smaller than last season. In one way, that is no surprise in a conference, where a team that made the national championship game couldn’t win its conference. The problem is that while the top 3 teams get better and better, there is no viable second guard to create more depth. While Miles is one season in under a new coach it is not yet ready to compete.

The Favorite: Quincy (5-0)

Contenders: Kentucky State (4-1) Lane (4-1)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Morehouse (4-1)

Overall this should be a very tight conference race again.

This is season two of the Quincy rebuildload. Extraclass at receiver separates them from their brethren on O. Defensively there was a lot of improvement, and now it is a team without big holes there too. Lane has the best QB in the conference, and no big holes on O. The D can absolutely compete too, just DB is a bit behind the other too. Offensively Kentucky State has the best line saying it might repeat as the conference champ, but QB is still behind the other two. Defensively linebacker looks a bit of a problem, but otherwise it is all high class. Morehouse is a SIM who had a good OOC. If things fall perfectly, maybe the team makes the playoffs.

 

Top 3 games

1.      Quincy vs Lane on day 12

The winner gets to play Kentucky state in the Championship game

2.      Kentucky State vs Quincy on day 8

3.      Kentucky State vs Morehouse on day 7

 

2. GSC, GUESS ranking: 5^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 2^nd, current record: 38-22

This is one of those conferences that have developed a healthy bit of depth in terms of potential playoff teams over the last few seasons. Add some threats to make the quarters or final four, and this will be a fun one to watch.

The favorite: Delta State (5-0)

Contenders: Valdosta State (5-0), West Georgia (5-0), Central Arkansas (4-1),

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Arkansas-Monticello (5-0), Harding (4-1), West Alabama (2-3)

Delta State does not have the most talent QB or RB, but very high quality everywhere else, makes them the clear favorite to repeat. That said, this is the season Valdosta States big class is seniors, and while the lines are not quite as good as Deltas, at least at QB they are better. In terms of cross division difficulty, Valdosta drew the short straw again this season.

The next contender is West Georgia a team that has had a nearly meteoric rise in terms of GUESS rankings under coach starfinder, but has yet to make the playoffs, after getting hosed due to SOS last season. The OOC was all cupcakes again, but the strong conference and the better team may be ready for the jump this season. While I am frankly entirely unimpressed by the skill position players, the lines are at least better than Valdostas and the defensive back seven is probably the best in conference.

West Georgias primary competitor for the north is Central Arkansas, who is now on an 8 season streak to win the north (one championship). The team is better than WG at RB and WR. And has the best TE in all of Division II. While the lines and the defensive back seven are slightly worse than West Georgia, it is by little enough, that I got no clue who will win their game.

With UAM there is a third team on the move in the south. While this might be the third best O of the conference I don’t think the d-line or the rest of the defense is quite ready for the jump past the big dogs. UAM missed an at large last season, primarily due to conference misshaps. The cross division schedule is not tough again.

Despite ok QB and RB, I don’t see Harding and West Alabama with a shot at the conference, because line talent and overall defense just are not there. But with an upset or so, maybe there is a tiny shot at the playoffs.

A good amount of choices was available here too.

Top 3 regular season games

1.      Delta State vs Valdosta State on day 9

The game that likely decides the south

2.      UCA vs West Georgia on day 12

Probably the deciding battle for the north

3.      West Georgia vs Ark-Monticello on day 6

The kind of game both teams could use to get an at-large.

 

 

1. PSAC, GUESS ranking: 1^st, WIS ranking after day 5: 1^st, current record: 46-14

I still have the PSAC as king. But the gap is closing, because with Slippery Rocks slow demise, there is no team with max vision left, and if one were to only look at the 3 best teams, the SIAC would be ahead. That said: when one looks at this OOC record, then there is little left to argue about which is the number one conference.

This will be another super interesting conference race

The favorite: Millersville (5-0),

The Contenders: Kutztown (4-1), Slippery Rock (4-1), East Stroudsburg (5-0), Mansfield (5-0), Edinboro (4-1), Indiana (3-2),

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: California (4-1), West Chester (5-0), Clarion (4-1)

30 Players of Millersville are either Juniors or sophomores, and it is easy to see, why that should mean Millersville improved again. After outperforming its talent level several times, this time there is no obvious bigger dog left. That said the hurdles are many. Slippery Rock: can the zombie team win the conference again?  I tend to say it will not happen this time because by now the O-line is playing two scrubs from the start, and the Defense goes one deep. But that one is still the moste talented starting lineup, and the skill positions first string is also the most talented. It is just, that without game planning nor any semblance of depth, if anyone can hold them to a few three and outs, that should be enough to take advantage. I’d guess Edinboro will be the one to take advantage of SRs demise in the west. The potentially best Qb in DII, combined with a top ten WR and maybe the best O-line  in the PSAC should scare any opponent. The D may not be quite that stellar, but should be good enough to give the O a chance in any game. Indiana is still a bit behind Edinboro in my mind, although RB is nothing but pure elite. But the O-line is at best the 5^th best in the PSAC. With the two losses already incurred, the line between the championship game and missing the playoffs will be razor thin.

A razor thin line between a CCG run and missing the playoffs is also the case for Kutztown. At least the cross division is as benevolent as it gets in the PSAC. The O would be absolutely on par with Millersvilles, if it were not for some rebuilding on the OL. The D is also quite solid. Mansfield again caught a really tough cross division… again. The O is on par with all the competitors, but the D is more of a top 20 than a top 10 unit. That said this is good enough to have a shot at getting past Millersville and Kutztown. And if there is a team I feel like I might have missed in my preseason top 15, then it is Mansfield.

 The 4^th east contender is defending division champion East Stroudsburg, which beat up on its cupcake OOC schedule. Winning the divison is gonna be a bit tougher this season, as the team is a bit on the younger side which hits particularly the WR spot hard. If one looks only at the starters, the D is among the 4 best in the PSAC, but there are depth problems that might be exploitable.

I am not entirely sure what to make of California of Pennsylvania. The offense is one of the 3 best in the PSAC, but the defensive front seven might not be playoff worthy. I can see a good number of upsets, a playoff birth is decently likely, but I cannot really see a conference championship. West Chester has 21 (!) seniors. And the thing that really helps with rebuilding is making the playoffs just before recruiting your big class. In that respect the OOC went according to plan, but cross division is an unlucky draw, and the PSACs murderers row will test this team hard, but the talent might be there to score an upset or two and sneak in. Clarion will also attempt to make the playoffs, but I believe them not quite ready yet, particularly on D.

My top 3 games

(3 are not enough)

1.      Millersville vs Edinboro on day 7

In my mind probably the two best PSAC teams of the season. Whoever loses the game will start the division race from behind.

2.      Kutztown vs Millersville on day 12

Given Kutztowns cross division, there is a very fair chance that this game will feature one or two teams looking to hammer out the division victory.

3.      Edinboro at Indiana on day 10

This might be the decider in the west.

4.      Millersville vs Mansfield on day 9

Another game with high division race implications.

 

So I have finally updated all of it, including the PSAC. Have fun yall

Another spectacular job. Glad that the gsc is rated so highly. It's really started developing into a good conference. That coupled with more humans in the lsc has made it much harder for me to recruit. To many human coaches that are in on the same players. Makes for a fun time.

Oh somewhere in this Grid Iron Land
The Sun is Shining Bright
And somewhere there is laughter
And somwhere hearts are light. 
But Trouble Brews in NCville
In SE Oke-Durant
For Dachmann, Mighty Dachmann
Who did but now he Can't   !    

(with apologies to whomever wrote the poem "Mighty Casey"  :)   

Great as always dachmann.  And mojo....a real tearjerker, man.  An instant classic.

thanks for the comments gentlemen... and particularly for the poetry