I don't even have a team in Knight but I've been following this thread...Great work the0nlyis!

Posted by vcuhockey42 on 4/16/2015 5:54:00 PM (view original):
I was honestly just using up my remaining free season credits and going to take an extended break from HD after this season in Knight.  However to be completely honest, this thread has rejuvenated the passion for HD that I had lost over the past 3-4 months.  It's going to take a few seasons to rebuild my program into a contender (after 2-3 consecutive seasons of lackluster recruiting) but I look forward to the challenge.  Thanks for this Onlyis!

I think this has a lot of people buzzing and hopefully it continues beyond just this season but like any thread it's going to take interest to keep it alive. Hell of a job Only...I think you've probably made the Knight world the most interesting for some. Very enjoyable and can't wait to see how it all plays out. I don't know how the knight world stacks up against the rest of the worlds in d3 but I do know some talk about how it is very tough. Maybe this will also generate some that are not here to come join us

Great thread Only, keep up the good work I really think us "die-hards" eat this up kinda like Alblack rankings, but that's a once a year post this is like a mini sportscenter recap so I believe if you keep it up it will become very popular and essentially increase the number of human coaches in the world!!

great to hear everyone loves this.

Heres a discussion point I'd like to hear from people about.

I think they're are a few exceptionally good sims this year.

Bluffton   is 9-5(2-2) RPI 19 and SOS 8
wins over Hanover(13 RPI) and Franklin(6 RPI) both were top 10 at the time of the games.  Bluffton is also doing this with NO Seniors, it's a human recruited team in a 6-3-2 structure(1 walkon), should be a team to watch next season if a human coach picks it up as well.  Projected as a 7 seed(chance to go either way in a top conf)

I could see Bluffton making a small run to 2nd round or S16 against inexperienced tournament teams, or pulling similar upsets against top teams.

Husson  is 13-1(4-0) RPI 23 SOS 56
maybe not as good as bluffton, however this is a sim recruited team with a sr heavy class.  Has wins against 12, 38, 48, 50 RPI teams.   However has been beaten by 30 by the 2nd rpi team.  Very good chance of finishing with only 2 conf loses.  However it's SOS will take a big hit, so a high seed isn't too likely.  Still good be another surprise sim team getting past the first round.  Currently projected as a 5 seed(expected to drop)

Muhlenburg is 13-1(3-1) RPI 31 SOS 119
not as good as the previous two schools, but has a win over #5 RPI Webster, and a 10 point loss to #3 rpi team.  could easily run the table from now and finish 25-1.  SOS will still not be good.  Being projected as a 8 seed.  Think this team could pull off a first round upset and then lose in a tight one in the second round.

Yeshiva is also 13-1(4-0)  RPI 52 SOS 173
A junior heavy sim class, Yeshiva holds its best win in 76-69 game against #6 RPI Franklin.  But was embarassed by 38 against Webster(5 RPI)  Projected as a 9 seed right now.  SOS will continue to drop and be a negative factor for seeding, however really has a good chance of winning out from here, with only 1 human coach on the schedule(51 RPI)

What do you guys think?

For Human coached teams, my prediction of Becker's SOS hurting them is already apparent, with SOS already dropping to 17th, they have now been passed by Webster, and dropped to 6th.  Still a 2 seed, but trending downward.  Hopefully winning out or dropping only 1 more game will make up for that, and shouldn't drop below a 4 seed at worst.  I'm thinking a 3 seed is a realistic seed, which is bad for Becker as well as the 1/2 seeds who end up in the same bracket.

Another team taking a big drop in PR, is Franklin with a 2 game losing streak.  Franklin has been a trendy pick to go far, however has to 2 of the sim teams mentioned earlier and 2 other quality losses, so Franklin has a nice 6 RPI and 5 SOS, but if quality losses keep piling seeding will drop.  Last update of mine they were a 2 seed and now are a 4 seed.  Being in a top conf gives oppertunities to increase an already high RPI/SOS, but how many more losses will they take?  One key factor is taggl is starting his freshmen in every game, come NT time similar to what he did in Tark, I expect Sr's/Jr's to start(they've been getting the minutes, not the starts) and should erase some of the problems that they have been facing, however seeding could come into play with this strategy)

Outstanding stuff here! Bluffton is certainly set up really well for next year, especially if a human steps in and can provide another rotation guy and game planning. As you mentioned, they snuck up and beat us and then Franklin proving they're no slouch this year. I would expect them to finish around .500 in conference and be a scary matchup for someone in round one. Not sure I see them getting to the Sweet 16 this year, but round of 32 a decent possibility.

	School	Conf	Coach	Rank	RPI	SOS	Record	Home	Away	Neutral	Last 10	NT Projection
1.	Drew	Freedom	dtm1500	1	2	12	15-0	6-0	9-0	0-0	10-0	Lock
2.	California Tech.	S. Cal.	the0nlyis	2	1	2	13-2	3-0	10-2	0-0	8-2	Lock
3.	Menlo	Northwest	anavrin	3	5	20	14-1	4-0	10-1	0-0	9-1	Lock
4.	Palm Beach Atlantic	USA South	bonjamesbond	4	4	16	15-1	9-0	6-1	0-0	9-1	Lock
5.	Manchester	Heartland	mattster24	5	8	32	14-1	3-0	11-1	0-0	9-1	Lock
6.	Dickinson	Centennial	mfnmyers	10	3	3	12-3	3-0	9-3	0-0	8-2	Lock
7.	Webster	St. Louis	funngun10	9	6	18	14-2	4-0	10-2	0-0	9-1	Lock
8.	Becker	N.Atlantic	carlbuzz	6	16	38	14-1	6-1	8-0	0-0	9-1	Lock
9.	U. of New England	Coast	ill_mannered	13	17	31	14-2	5-1	9-1	0-0	9-1	Lock
10.	Whittier	S. Cal.	drow14	14	7	14	13-3	6-0	7-3	0-0	9-1	Lock
11.	Hanover	Heartland	cbous3040	8	12	23	13-2	6-1	7-1	0-0	8-2	Lock
12.	New York U.	Upstate	Trentonjoe	16	14	9	13-3	10-2	3-1	0-0	8-2	Lock

Last time I posted here is the change:
Drew(=)
Cal Tech(=)
Menlo(=)
PBA(=)
Manchester(+6)
Dickinson(+2)
Webster(-1)
Becker(-3)
U of New England(+) previously outside top 12
Whittier(+) previously outside top 12
Hanover(+) previously outside top 12
NYU (-3)

So we are watching Becker and NYU drop because of weakening schedules.  Becker dropped from 6/10 to 16/38 and NYU from 18/4 to 14/9 so and increase in RPI, but SOS drop, so mainly just dropped due to being jumped by teams with rpi/sos increases.

Hopefully they stop dropping due to winning the remainder of the games as a 3 seed is already very low.

All the 1 seeds stayed the same.  Although Cal Tech has taken #1 in RPI

Also what do people think of dickinson, they are 3/3 and 12-3 with only 3 seniors, didn't think they'd be this good this season.

Bluffton is a very good sim and will be even better next season especially if someone comes in to coach them. They could make a run to the sweet 16 but doubtful. My Franklin boys will be fine and yes I am giving starts to my freshmen...I can't seem to get away from "always" building for the future, lol. I'm really excited about this class and I think this could be the best backcourt I've ever had when it's all said and done but time will tell. Dickinson, probably shouldn't have been left off the sweet 16 list, young team but enough sr's and enough talent running a fp/fb to get him a few wins in the tourney.

Anyone taken a look at Wisconsin, Eau Claire? They had a fairly soft non non conference schedule, with just 3 top 75 RPI wins. They beat us in non conference and have 6 seniors. With no juniors on the roster, the depth isn't quite as strong just yet, but they're going to be a team the top seeds want to avoid come tourney time.

They play in the worst conference RPIS-wise, so will most likely end up a 6-8 seed, yet come into tourney undefeated. Definitely going to be a 2nd round matchup problem for a 1, 2, or 3 seed. One of those draws where you feel like you drew the short straw.

I was wary of projecting them to go far due to a coach with "no experience" but it looks to be either an alt id for a good coach or a new player who read up on how to play as whoever it is, has done a good job, the team is very capable.  They are a 7 seed right now, and they will probably drop as they are playing nothing but 200/300+ rpi teams with 1 team at 126.  Shame if the previous coach had given them a decent non-conf they could be in the running for a 2-5 seed.  However this just makes them more dangerous to top seeds.

Looking at the projection report Manchester has continued to climb and are now a projected 1 seed

Good to see Becker back to being projected as a 1 seed.  Helped out by Manchesters 3 game losing streak, as well as PBA losing 2 recent games a few days ago both were 1/2 seed projections.

We also have a fun battle between Cal Tech and Drew for #1 RPI as it has been changing back and forth almost every cycle.

As always conf tourney's are going to be interesting. I'm going to miss on Menlo as one of my #1 seeds. Drew, Cal Tech, &  Hanover will be as long as they don't fall on their face's these last few games. The 4rth #1 could go a couple different ways atm. I don't see a clear cut favorite so anyone that can make the sweet 16 has a shot.... a lot of the 2-5 seeds have potential to surprise.

Drew could lose their first CT game and still be a 1 seed and still #1 overall.

Cal Tech needs to beat CMHMS and not lose in their first CT game to be safe for their 1 seed.

Hanover either needs to beat Franklin and not lose their first CT game or lose to Franklin but win the CT to take the 1 seed.

For the final 1 seed I think its a race between two teams with the best chance and  few only if the first two schools mess up:

Whittier, Becker have the best shot, if Whittier makes it to the CT championship I believe they get whether or not they win.  Becker gets it if they win out and Whittier either slips up and loses before the CT champ or if they lose the CT champ and Becker rpi/sos increases enough from the CT.  If Hanover slips up both could claim 1 seeds

Dickinson, Manchester, Webster could also get it but would need Whittier and Becker both to lose 1 game if not 2, as well as Hanover dropping 1 game or more.


Personally as a potential 1 seed I'm not to happy looking at potential 2nd round matchups:
Wisconsin Eau, Claire
Westminister
Upper Iowa
U of New England

those are 4 really good teams, especially Wisc and New England who are S16 or better capable teams.  Has me worried

Regular season has ended.

Congrats to dtm for the undefeated regular season.

Current 1 seeds

1.	Drew	Freedom	dtm1500	1	1	4	26-0	12-0	14-0	0-0	10-0	Lock
2.	California Tech.	S. Cal.	the0nlyis	2	2	1	23-3	8-0	15-3	0-0	9-1	Lock
3.	Hanover	Heartland	cbous3040	4	6	12	23-3	11-1	12-2	0-0	9-1	Lock
4.	Whittier	S. Cal.	drow14	5	4	13	23-3	11-0	12-3	0-0	10-0	Lock

Current 2 seeds

5.	Dickinson	Centennial	mfnmyers	6	3	14	23-3	8-0	15-3	0-0	10-0	Lock
6.	Becker	N.Atlantic	carlbuzz	3	7	25	25-1	11-1	14-0	0-0	10-0	Lock
7.	Webster	St. Louis	funngun10	7	5	20	24-2	9-0	15-2	0-0	10-0	Lock
8.	Palm Beach Atlantic	USA South	bonjamesbond	10	9	15	22-4	13-1	9-3	0-0	7-3	Lock

3 seeds

9.	Manchester	Heartland	mattster24	23	12	11	20-6	6-2	14-4	0-0	6-4	Lock
10.	Fairleigh Dickinson, Florham	Freedom	jtt8355	16	8	7	21-5	7-2	14-3	0-0	9-1	Lock
11.	La Grange	USA South	citizenkyle2	20	18	36	22-4	8-1	14-3	0-0	9-1	Lock
12.	Greensboro	USA South	worldofnoah	22	15	10	20-6	9-2	11-4	0-0	9-1	Lock

4 seeds

13.	Christopher Newport	USA South	vcuhockey42	19	23	17	21-5	9-4	12-1	0-0	9-1	Lock
14.	Menlo	Northwest	anavrin	9	14	48	24-2	10-0	14-2	0-0	9-1	Lock
15.	New York U.	Upstate	Trentonjoe	21	10	9	22-4	15-2	7-2	0-0	9-1	Lock
16.	Pacific Lutheran	Northwest	affvid	8	13	29	23-3	11-1	12-2	0-0	10-0	Lock

Other notable teams:

(5 seed)17.

Franklin

Heartland

taggl

11

2

18-8

5-3

13-5

0-0

7-3

Lock

(7 seed)28.

Wisconsin, Eau Claire

Wisconsin

TMAN25

11

30

171

26-0

11-0

15-0

0-0

10-0

Lock

(8 seed)32.

U. of New England

Coast

ill_mannered

32

78

22-4

10-1

12-3

0-0

8-2

Bubble

Just based on seed here's how each region could look like:
Drew
Dickinson
Manchester
CNU

Cal Tech
Becker
Farleigh Dickinson Florham
Menlo

Hanover
Webster
La Grange
NYU

Whittier
PBA
Greensboro
Pacific Lutheran

thats just going off each bracket gets the highest seed and going down.

Waiting for seeds to be announced here is the PR for top 4 seeds.

1 Seeds
1. Drew Freedom dtm1500 1 1 3 29-0 12-0 14-0 3-0 10-0 Lock
2. California Tech. S. Cal. the0nlyis 2 2 1 25-4 8-0 15-3 2-1 8-2 Lock
3. Hanover Heartland cbous3040 3 4 12 26-3 11-1 12-2 3-0 9-1 Lock
4. Becker N.Atlantic carlbuzz 4 7 28 28-1 11-1 14-0 3-0 10-0 Lock

2 Seeds
5. Webster St. Louis funngun10 5 3 18 27-2 9-0 15-2 3-0 10-0 Lock
6. La Grange USA South citizenkyle2 12 11 24 25-4 8-1 14-3 3-0 9-1 Lock
7. Whittier S. Cal. drow14 9 6 13 24-4 11-0 12-3 1-1 9-1 Lock
8. Palm Beach Atlantic USA South bonjamesbond 13 10 9 24-5 13-1 9-3 2-1 7-3 Lock

3 Seeds
9. Dickinson Centennial mfnmyers 14 5 14 23-4 8-0 15-3 0-1 9-1 Lock
10. New York U. Upstate Trentonjoe 15 8 6 25-4 15-2 7-2 3-0 9-1 Lock
11. Menlo Northwest anavrin 6 12 43 27-2 10-0 14-2 3-0 10-0 Lock
12. CMHMS S. Cal. aejones 11 14 19 24-5 9-2 12-3 3-0 9-1 Lock

4 Seeds
13. Manchester Heartland mattster24 15 8 21-7 6-2 14-4 1-1 5-5 Lock
14. Fairleigh Dickinson, Florham Freedom jtt8355 18 9 4 23-6 7-2 14-3 2-1 9-1 Lock
15. Franklin Heartland taggl 25 13 2 21-9 5-3 13-5 3-1 7-3 Lock
16. Christopher Newport USA South vcuhockey42 23 24 15 22-6 9-4 12-1 1-1 8-2 Lock

Of course it's nice to be a #1 seed but as a #1 I would not be too excited about the second round match ups.... several dangerous 8/9 seeds this go around! I can't remember if I've seen this many good teams slotted there before this season. GL to everyone and this is going to be a very interesting tourney!