Knight D3 Preseason Outlook Topic

The0nlyIS's preseason final four:

Becker (WIS #15)

+ Becker has the most athletic team in the country, and Tied for 3rd in Def, combined with 8 upperclassmen, Carlbuzz looks to lead his team to great heights. Becker will be lead by RS Sr. SG Russell Hallum who looks to be in the running for POY with ratings of 60 ath 85 spd 99 per 79 bh, Hallum will be an offensive force, already averaging 23.5 ppg last season.

- One downside to Becker is the running of a zone with most coaches in agreement that it is the weakest of the defenses, however Becker has success running it, and with a talented roster, it shouldn't be a big hinder, as teams can win with zone's.  The only other downside is no true LP threats, however with a flex offense and Hallum handling the scoring load, this is only a problem after nitpicking the team, and shouldn't be considered a big detriment to Becker's postseason success.

* Becker has lost 1 regular season conf game in the past 13 seasons(last season), and only 2 teams look actually capable of facing Becker and pulling out a victory(Cal Tech, Piedmont)

Expected record before post-season.  26-0 (16-0), projected 1 seed.

Drew (WIS #17)

+Dtm is one of the best coaches in the game at this level, and looks to return Drew back to the final four for the second season in a row.  Led by 2 high ath/spd guards in Laub and Jones, the flex should produce a very efficient offense for dtm.  Followed by some 60 ath 75 reb big men, this is an elite team this year.  Roster includes a high rebounding SF which should help balance with big men on the lower end of the rebounding spectrum.

-No true C, best rebounder is 56 ath 78 reb, and only looks to gain a few points there.  Press could cause a problem against higher athletic teams, but again nitpicking.

Expected regularseason record: 22-4 (14-2) projected 1 seed

New York University (WIS #22)

+Back to back F4's shows TJ is a top coach atm, elite guard play, excellent rebounding, and two star offensive players in the triangle offense.

-Lack of ath in big men could cause a problem.(only 1 true high ath/reb center), very tough non-conf schedule, and weak conf could result in a lower seed than what talent dictates.

Projected record 22-4(15-1) Projected 2 seed

Cal Tech (WIS #1) (Didn't want to put myself but felt deserved)

+4th highest team ath and T3rd highest team def, highest overall average team rating, probably the highest starting ath lineup.  Fernburg and Henely are elite level players.  Great guard depth.

-no true elite scoring threat, yet.  no elite ath/reb big men. Only 1 distributer.  Big men depth is not the greatest.  Questionable coaching ability.

Projected record: 21-5 (13-3) 3 seed.

Conf RPI winner: Heartland.

Quick guesses for the 4 teams getting knocked out in the Elite 8:
Hanover
Franklin
U of New England.
Texas Lutheran 

Surprise teams:
CNU
Blackburn

Unknown coaches who could suprise:
Wisconsin Eau Claire
Wartburg

Hopefully you enjoyed this, might did an update after non-conf.

4/8/2015 7:56 PM (edited)
Nice job only... I like this and you should do it each season.
My F4:
Webster
Becker
New York(NC)
Drew
E8:
Cal Tech
Hanover
U of NE
Roger Williams
Sweet 16:
Desales
Franklin
Westminster
Manchester
Piedmont
Pacific Lutheran
Fairleigh Dickinson
Menlo
4/8/2015 9:49 PM
Menlo is final four.
4/8/2015 10:23 PM
Cal Tech should also get to the final four, but it will depend on coaching. Lots of mistakes can be made with that lineup. I see scoring on your team Only. But I also think it should not come from the obvious as much as from other places.
4/8/2015 10:27 PM
I think drew, Becker, and New York are pretty good bets to at least get to the elite 8. Those coaches tend to do well with good rosters. Don't count out Catholic and Palm beach Atlantic from going deep as well. I tend to look at the coach more than the squads. Even middling talent can win with a saavy coach. Conversely a lot of talent doesn't always mean much if the coach can't capitalize with it.

I definitely don't see my team making it past the first weekend. It's one of the weakest I've had in D3 in any world in a while. Maybe my athleticism and defense surprises but I'm going to have to work to even make the tournament. Recruiting has been tough at Piedmont for whatever reason the past few seasons. I worry I don't have the pieces to win big games this season. My system soars when I have an elite back court. I haven't had that at Piedmont in a long while unfortunately.
4/8/2015 11:10 PM
Posted by zorzii on 4/8/2015 10:27:00 PM (view original):
Cal Tech should also get to the final four, but it will depend on coaching. Lots of mistakes can be made with that lineup. I see scoring on your team Only. But I also think it should not come from the obvious as much as from other places.
I don't agree with that entirely. Sure you can overthink it and lose when you shouldn't but that team should beat most teams on a given night. The challenge for onlysis is being in such an overloaded league. Might take too many losses and hurt seeding. Even an elite team isn't going unbeaten in that So Cal league. But It looks like a well balanced team to me. I see every piece there needed to win a national title, to be honest. I guess I'll get to evaluate that team up close when Piedmont hosts California Tech next week.
4/8/2015 11:15 PM
Umass Dartmouth, D'youville, Staten Island, and Skidmore winning it all
4/9/2015 9:29 AM
I'm really looking forward to this season, in my two exhibition games, I beat the #6, and #11 teams with great coaches by 16 and 23 points respectively.  Hopefully I can continue.  Although DeSales was playing mainly Fr. and So. so don't think its good to take that into account.  And the 23 point win over a FB/FCP team makes me happy, playing those types of teams worry me.

I see malice is a jokester.

Also KBC it's looking like a down year for the S. Cal last year was really really good for the conf, however a lot of coaches are now with a lot of underclassmen, really it looks like it's aejones, drow14, and me battling for the conf title, however the conf, will still be very tough as we have great coaches just class structure is a b and only us 3 are the only ones without a high amount of freshmen, which should give us 3 schools an advantage when playing everyone else.
4/9/2015 4:03 PM (edited)
Menlo looks good....they have like 3 Preseason AA.
4/9/2015 7:18 PM
Posted by Trentonjoe on 4/9/2015 7:18:00 PM (view original):
Menlo looks good....they have like 3 Preseason AA.
They just have 1 2nd teamer and he has 12 def rating, however he's probably going to be a 18-20 ppg scorer as a backup.  And 2 AA honorable mentions at PF which are actually good overall players.

However anavrin is probably the best D3 FB/FCP team and will get that team far, I have them losing in the S16 however I could see E8, F4 depending on how they grow, because of anavrin is such a good coach running the FB/FCP and they have so much speed.  Any other coach maybe just the 2nd round.

I also think Upper Iowa could surprise this season, and I don't think anyone mentioned them yet, S16 would not surprise and E8 if they get a good bracket
4/9/2015 8:44 PM (edited)
Hanover is the team I don't want to play.   Webster looks like a tough out as well.
4/10/2015 9:34 AM
I am looking forward to my non-con against Cal. Tech........I think I win by 8 ;)
4/10/2015 9:36 AM
and I just saw this  "Back to back Final Fours shows TJ is a top coach atm"....ATM!?seriously? .....not serious
4/10/2015 9:39 AM
I'm of course pulling for Hanover and would have picked him but didn't want to jinx it.
4/10/2015 11:17 AM
Posted by Trentonjoe on 4/10/2015 9:36:00 AM (view original):
I am looking forward to my non-con against Cal. Tech........I think I win by 8 ;)
I have you beating me in the "projected records"  You have a big rebounding advantage that I think will give you a lot more shots than me.

And yeh I'd definentily say top coaches at the moment, with the recent success of your NYU team but also pretty much every other team.  You just get really unlucky come F4 time, pretty sure there is very few teams that can match your success.

Also believe we have our first matchup between popular picks for teams to go far:

U. of New England 93 - Franklin 88

Also Catholic with a upset:  Catholic 91 - North Park 61
4/10/2015 2:42 PM (edited)
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