pretty good odds as an 8 seed, 42% for a consecutive S16 and 15% for Elite 8, wouldn't have thought so

Hardin Simmons: .01%.

In Jim Carrey voice from Dumb and Dumber: so you're saying there's a CHANCE!

Posted by brianxavier on 5/18/2015 2:25:00 PM (view original):
and, goodness gracious... 61% chance to win it all by Menlo!?!?!!!!  That's insane, and I think I actually agree.

I certainly agree.  The ratings have me as the #17 team in this tourney... and a 4.66% chance to make the S16.  Two of the 14 seeds and one of the 15s have a better shot at that.

Stats for season 80: onedrive.live.com/redir

wow i had some crappy team ratings 112 offense and 50 defense, and somehow managed to do relatively well in the regular season.

Season 81 Rosters and Predictions: onedrive.live.com/redir

Oh great, now we've got a target on our backs.

So 18 wins, 11 conference wins, and 3rd in my conference, and just outside of a PI bid... I'll take that challenge and try and beat all 4 of those.

I overachieved on my predictions... 20 wins (18 predicted), 13 conference wins (11 predicted), and tied for 1st (3rd place predicted).  I think I will take those results.  Now to just solve this conference tourney issue and grab myself a 15 or 16 seed and start learning more stuff.

Tournament Odds for Season 81: onedrive.live.com/redir

Always appreciate the odds...

I thought I would look back and see if being a double-digit percentage favorite to win it all yielded any insight to the odds... just seemed like something interesting.

Not sure it's that revealing...

Season 78 - 4 teams had odds of winning it all > 10% (Millsaps, 29%, J&W 12%, Kenyon 22%, Willamette 15%).  Only one of those teams actually made the final four (Johnson and Wales) and Susquehanna won the title (odds 8.29% to win it all).... [J&W knocked out Millsaps fwiw...]

Season 79 - 3 teams > 10% chance to win it all (Kenyon 10%, Hiram 16%, Menlo 31%).  All 3 made the final four and Menlo won title.

Season 80 - 1 team > 10% chance to win it all (Menlo 61%).  Menlo won that year too.

Seasons 81 - Millsaps 11%, Webster 21%, Neb. Wes 18%, Colorado 17%.  Outcome TBD.  My guess is that without an all-generational type of team like Menlo the last 2 seasons, it will be more like season 78 with much more variation.  Or perhaps Bullman is getting better at predictions, and it will be like season 79?

I have not changed the formulas, so I have definitely not improved anything :)

My next opponent, Denison, is going to be a tough out for a ten seed and one of the favorites for next year. I thought I might have caught a break when they knocked off the seven seed, but now I am not so sure.

Stats for Season 81: onedrive.live.com/redir

Check in around recruiting for a new spreadsheet.

Recruiting Budgets for Season 82: onedrive.live.com/redir

Note that this does not include carryover.

Posted by bullman17 on 7/16/2015 10:06:00 AM (view original):
Recruiting Budgets for Season 82: onedrive.live.com/redir

Note that this does not include carryover.

wow... new wrinkle!  Leveling the playing field indeed!!!