How would you build a team to win on a consistent basis when the odds are stacked against you?

That is to say, how do you build a team that can compete with the majors in D1 when you're a mid major?

I'm not talking getting a bunch of human coaches together in a mid major conference and becoming good over time with more recruiting money and prestige rolling in. I'm talking you're alone by yourself in a sim AI conference and you want to be able to compete with the 700+ overall beast teams with your C prestige or lower.

Is it even possible?

Discuss!

Someone on the forums recently said anything below S16 on average was failure.  If the bar is that high, then it would be difficult.  If you just meant consistently be in line for at-large bids (on the off chance of losing the CT in an empty conference) and win a game in the tourney every other year, then sure.

The way I see it, the best bet is one of two possibilities play: (A) zone and make sure to have 6 open schollies every season (or nearly that) or (B) press and set up a 6060 structure.  You can get very good ATH & DEF to play man, but it's almost impossible to get enough to run with the big dogs.

I would take the opposite approach.  Be deep.  Have a balanced roster.  Your guys wont go EE, you will get guys to redshirt.  Have a depth and IQ advantage - so that if the other guy has more talent he wont have as many guys with "A" IQs.  Try for guys with potentials that will make them almost as good as the guys on the other team.

Posted by rogelio on 10/17/2014 9:32:00 PM (view original):
Someone on the forums recently said anything below S16 on average was failure.  If the bar is that high, then it would be difficult.  If you just meant consistently be in line for at-large bids (on the off chance of losing the CT in an empty conference) and win a game in the tourney every other year, then sure.

The way I see it, the best bet is one of two possibilities play: (A) zone and make sure to have 6 open schollies every season (or nearly that) or (B) press and set up a 6060 structure.  You can get very good ATH & DEF to play man, but it's almost impossible to get enough to run with the big dogs.

the S16 thing I saw was for D2, basically I've been told and believe if you can build a team to  make it to the S16 you have built a solid team and could compete in or out of a SIMAI conference. I've never seen anyone say S16 or failure. I have seen CT Championship or bust in a SIMAI conference but never a S16

Posted by bagger288 on 10/17/2014 10:07:00 PM (view original):

Posted by rogelio on 10/17/2014 9:32:00 PM (view original):
Someone on the forums recently said anything below S16 on average was failure.  If the bar is that high, then it would be difficult.  If you just meant consistently be in line for at-large bids (on the off chance of losing the CT in an empty conference) and win a game in the tourney every other year, then sure.

The way I see it, the best bet is one of two possibilities play: (A) zone and make sure to have 6 open schollies every season (or nearly that) or (B) press and set up a 6060 structure.  You can get very good ATH & DEF to play man, but it's almost impossible to get enough to run with the big dogs.

the S16 thing I saw was for D2, basically I've been told and believe if you can build a team to  make it to the S16 you have built a solid team and could compete in or out of a SIMAI conference. I've never seen anyone say S16 or failure. I have seen CT Championship or bust in a SIMAI conference but never a S16

I'll say it.  If you can build a team up to average a S16 loss, then this game pays for itself (after an initial investment).  Anything below that means you are coming out of pocket to play.  I would grant that is a tough standard to judge "consistency", but that's one obvious place to put the bar.

I'm just figuring out what "consistently" should mean.  At a school in an empty D1 conference with the default baseline prestige, IMO, averaging a S16 appearance is higher than you can really expect to achieve, but you need to set the bar at qualifying for an at-large bid to the NT every season.  

If I'm allowed to define an "empty" conference as one in which any team receiving an at-large bid is a rare event, then you can find a few miracle F4 or E8 runs by such teams, but "consistently" winning has got to mean something between 1/2 a NT win per year and S16 loss.

I think I have Princeton on track to be a regular Sweet 16 visitor in the near future (at least 2 out of every 4 seasons). With the budget for just two open scholarships the past two seasons, we brought in eight recruits in total who have us competing at a fairly high level (NT both seasons, would have likely been a first four out had we not won the CT last season). We also were close to last in the country in postseason money both seasons. We lost three of our five worst players after last season and will lose only one senior (a mediocre forward) after this season (unless I cut him this recruiting period).

I think you need a really solid understanding of how DI recruiting works and how to efficiently build a team to be successful with a mid-major.

You got a lot of Blue left in that princeton team?  It isn't close to a S16 team with what you have.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 10/18/2014 4:36:00 PM (view original):
You got a lot of Blue left in that princeton team?  It isn't close to a S16 team with what you have.

Absolutely. Only Irwin and Borror are even close to reaching all of their potentials. Several players still in the blue in high/high categories as well. We'll be a very good team in two seasons.

I think it is theoretically possible, but you have to be ready to face disappointment on a regular basis. I believe you have to:

• Leave a scholarship open every season - the extra $15K doesn't make up for lower NT bonus money, but it helps
• Recruit low-rated players with lots of blue and high WEs
• Redshirt someone every season and hence have a fifth-year senior every season
• Run slowdown pretty much exclusively - it helps keep your upperclassmen on the floor and masks your depth-challenged 10-man roster
• Vary your distribution and make sure no one goes EE
• Schedule a full complement of sub 125 non-conference road games that you think you can win, and then gameplan the hell out of them
• Hope you get a decent NT draw every season
• Resist the strong urge to jump to a Big 6 conference because trying to win big in D1 with a low baseline prestige team in a Sim AI-laden conference is just too much of a grind

Do all those things and I think you can be consistently successful.

I'm at UNLV, and probably do just about all of the above, but I do aggressively pursue 3 and 4 star talent when I can. I feel like it's the only way to try and keep up. However, 2 of my NT teams were CT teams that got hot at the right moment. I won a PI, but cannot compete in the NT. I can't compete v Big 6 in non-con. I schedule what is reasonable and like my conference. My ratings hover in the low 700's. I recruit lower rated high-high players. But we are who we thought we were.....it's frustrating yet fun at the same time. But I have not been able to put together a dominant team yet.

Anyone have a hotline to Bill Snyder?
Not a hoops coach, but hands down the greatest coach of all time in any sport
Gets more out of less always

It would be easy if you and your conference mates worked together through collusion and midlevel conspiracy...sound familiar tanner?