Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 10:38:00 AM (view original):
$6M risk on a player who was once elite. If he went .280/.360/.470 would that really shock anyone? That guy would be worth MUCH more than $6M. I'd argue it's worth the risk to at least a handful of teams.

Yes, I would be shocked.   Since, as I said, it was 2011 since he last approached those numbers.    After hardly playing in 2013 and sitting out 2014.   And no longer on PED.    3.5 years is a long time in baseball at 40 years of age.

Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 10:31:00 AM (view original):
He's a HOF-quality player, so that's a reason he could get an .800 OPS. Could even be higher. The 500 PAs could be difficult.  But $6M isn't a ton in today's market. A .725 OPS for 400 PAs might be worth $6M for a 3rd baseman who plays solid defense.  With the obvious potential for more, based on his history.  

He was a HOF-quality player.   So was Hank Aaron.   But I'm not giving him 6m today.  

Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 10:38:00 AM (view original):
$6M risk on a player who was once elite. If he went .280/.360/.470 would that really shock anyone? That guy would be worth MUCH more than $6M. I'd argue it's worth the risk to at least a handful of teams.

This.

$6m is essentially nothing.

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/30/2014 10:50:00 AM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 10:38:00 AM (view original):
$6M risk on a player who was once elite. If he went .280/.360/.470 would that really shock anyone? That guy would be worth MUCH more than $6M. I'd argue it's worth the risk to at least a handful of teams.

Yes, I would be shocked.   Since, as I said, it was 2011 since he last approached those numbers.    After hardly playing in 2013 and sitting out 2014.   And no longer on PED.    3.5 years is a long time in baseball at 40 years of age.

Again, I see missing a year as irrelevant at worse, and a good thing at best.

I wouldn't simply assume he's off PEDs.  He might be ridiculous enough to be looking for another way to take PEDs with nobody knowing.  

Chris Young made $7M this year.  The "hitter."  $6M isn't a crazy amount of money.

A year at 30 is a lot different than a year at 40 in MLB. 

You keep saying "6M isn't all that much".   What percentage of players made more than 6m last year?   How many of them were 40?  How many of them haven't played in 18 months after getting less than 200 AB in the previous 12 months?   How many of them are toting around ARod-level baggage?

Why do you think resting last year was a bad thing?

Non-bench players, age 40 or older this year:

Jeter - $12M
Colon - $9M
Ichiro - $6.5M
Hawkins - $2.25M

I'm assuming that a team would sign him as a starting 3B, of course.  You can look across the league at 3B who are done with their arb years, the majority make more than $6M.  Alberto Callaspo, the last guy on your list on Page 1, almost made $5M this year. His career OPS is .700.

Josh Johnson got an $8 million one year deal in 2014 and pretty much everyone knew his arm was about to fall off.

Colby Rasmus got a one year $7 million deal and he wasn't even out of arbitration. 2014 line: .225/.287/.448. He was essentially replacement level with a 0.6 fWAR.

AJ Burnett got $11.25 million this year (and $11.25 next) to put up an 81 ERA+.

1 year $8-12 million for Arod is realistic, assuming he isn't blacklisted.

Baggage aside, I might agree.  But his demand falls because of it. I'd guess there would only be a few teams interested in his services.  

And for every bad deal you list, I'm sure there are "good" deals as well.  Marlon Byrd, for example, just had a fantastic year in 2013 and only got $8M.

Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 11:53:00 AM (view original):
Baggage aside, I might agree.  But his demand falls because of it. I'd guess there would only be a few teams interested in his services.  

And for every bad deal you list, I'm sure there are "good" deals as well.  Marlon Byrd, for example, just had a fantastic year in 2013 and only got $8M.

I could see a couple million "baggage discount." Instead of getting 8-12, he gets 6-9 guaranteed.

Posted by bad_luck on 9/30/2014 11:45:00 AM (view original):
Josh Johnson got an $8 million one year deal in 2014 and pretty much everyone knew his arm was about to fall off.

Colby Rasmus got a one year $7 million deal and he wasn't even out of arbitration. 2014 line: .225/.287/.448. He was essentially replacement level with a 0.6 fWAR.

AJ Burnett got $11.25 million this year (and $11.25 next) to put up an 81 ERA+.

1 year $8-12 million for Arod is realistic, assuming he isn't blacklisted.

What do you mean by "blacklisted"?

If you're talking about teams independently deciding to not want to touch him because he's a pariah, that's one thing.

If you're talking about a collusive effort by multiple teams working in concert with each other to not sign him, that's another.

Posted by tecwrg on 9/30/2014 11:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 9/30/2014 11:45:00 AM (view original):
Josh Johnson got an $8 million one year deal in 2014 and pretty much everyone knew his arm was about to fall off.

Colby Rasmus got a one year $7 million deal and he wasn't even out of arbitration. 2014 line: .225/.287/.448. He was essentially replacement level with a 0.6 fWAR.

AJ Burnett got $11.25 million this year (and $11.25 next) to put up an 81 ERA+.

1 year $8-12 million for Arod is realistic, assuming he isn't blacklisted.

What do you mean by "blacklisted"?

If you're talking about teams independently deciding to not want to touch him because he's a pariah, that's one thing.

If you're talking about a collusive effort by multiple teams working in concert with each other to not sign him, that's another.

I'm talking collusion, which is what I think happened to Bonds.

I don't think all teams would independently decide not to sign him, the incentive to win is too great and they haven't hesitated to sign other players after PED suspensions.

There's no real evidence of collusion.  But it's incredible to think that every team would fail to offer Bonds a contract after the season he just had in his last year.  

Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 12:03:00 PM (view original):
There's no real evidence of collusion.  But it's incredible to think that every team would fail to offer Bonds a contract after the season he just had in his last year.  

Yeah, it's purely speculation on my part but Selig has had a couple run-ins with the c word before. It wouldn't surprise me if he had been involved again.

Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 12:03:00 PM (view original):
There's no real evidence of collusion.  But it's incredible to think that every team would fail to offer Bonds a contract after the season he just had in his last year.  

Bonds was a pariah, too.  It's no surprise that nobody wanted to touch him.    There's no valid reason to think there was any collusion there, unless you're a conspiracy theorist.

Posted by bad_luck on 9/30/2014 12:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 12:03:00 PM (view original):
There's no real evidence of collusion.  But it's incredible to think that every team would fail to offer Bonds a contract after the season he just had in his last year.  

Yeah, it's purely speculation on my part but Selig has had a couple run-ins with the c word before. It wouldn't surprise me if he had been involved again.

Are you confusing Selig with Ueberroth?