Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 9:28:00 AM (view original):
I would argue there's a large amount of teams that would say "thanks but no thanks" to the A-Rod distraction. It happened to Bonds and he could play. I'd guess 1 year, $6-7M is a fair estimate, with a large amount of incentives for plate appearances and awards, driving it up to the $15-20M range.

OK, how many teams are paying anyone 15m a year?   Because, if they're not paying a 32 y/o 15m, they're not paying a 40 y/o 15m.

How many of those teams need a 3B?   How many would be willing to risk 6m on what can only be termed a "questionable" production?

I think the list is small.   But, as Tebow once said, "I don't need everyone to love me, I just need one team."   Of course, Tebow is announcing now.

Yea, when I say $15M, I mean the same way Jeter could have made $20M in his option year or whatever before the Yankees gave him more money for no reason.  MVP award, WS MVP, All-star game appearance, etc.  $6M for a 3B who could have a .800 OPS for 500 PAs, and it wouldn't shock anyone? Worth it. As long as you're comfortable with the media attention.

Is there a reason to believe he is going to OPS .800?
 

Or get 500 PA?

Here's what he would need:

1.  A team willing to risk 6m for virtually nothing and pay up to 15m if they get good production.   
2.  A team that needs a 3B.
3.  A team that can contend.
4.  A team that is willing to put up with the distraction that is A-Rod.

How many teams fall into the first three categories?   How many of those are willing to deal with the nonsense?

Well, $6m is virtually nothing for a major league team and almost all teams can handle a $15m player. I think the Padres paid a reliever $12m last season.

I think he'd get a one year deal somewhere, assuming MLB doesn't order teams not to sign him.

OPS .800  2011
500 PA  2012

We're talking about the 2015 season for a player who missed the 2014 season after hardly playing in the 2013 season due to injury.

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/30/2014 10:23:00 AM (view original):
OPS .800  2011
500 PA  2012

We're talking about the 2015 season for a player who missed the 2014 season after hardly playing in the 2013 season due to injury.

For a guy who's going to be 39/40 next season, with a bad hip, and (supposedly) off the PED's that fueled his career throughout his 30's.

There are so many red flags and warning sirens around what to expect for performance that it would be foolish for anybody to give him a large guaranteed contract.

Here's what I think would happen: ARod's agent would let teams know that he could be had for $10m-$12m guaranteed.  Most teams would stay away.  A couple of (curious?  desperate?) interested teams would counter with a contract in the $4m-$5m range with a lot of performance based incentives.  ARod's ego would not let him accept such an "insulting" offer.

ARod goes unsigned.  Career over.  And he would wonder why.

He's a HOF-quality player, so that's a reason he could get an .800 OPS. Could even be higher. The 500 PAs could be difficult.  But $6M isn't a ton in today's market. A .725 OPS for 400 PAs might be worth $6M for a 3rd baseman who plays solid defense.  With the obvious potential for more, based on his history.  

Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 10:31:00 AM (view original):
He's a HOF-quality player, so that's a reason he could get an .800 OPS. Could even be higher. The 500 PAs could be difficult.  But $6M isn't a ton in today's market. A .725 OPS for 400 PAs might be worth $6M for a 3rd baseman who plays solid defense.  With the obvious potential for more, based on his history.  

Would you expect that he could still play a solid defensive 3B when you consider the age, hip, and inactivity factors?

Change solid to "adequate."  It's what I meant.  Average.  

And I see the "inactivity factor" as a more of a positive than a negative.

$6M risk on a player who was once elite. If he went .280/.360/.470 would that really shock anyone? That guy would be worth MUCH more than $6M. I'd argue it's worth the risk to at least a handful of teams.

What it the likelihood that he achieves those kinds of numbers?

I think it's low.  Very low.

If the likelihood was good, he'd make more than $6M.

Would it shock you if Conor Gillaspie (finished 10th in OPS for 3B) put up those numbers? Probably.

Would it shock you if A-Rod did it? It wouldn't shock me. I'd put money on A-Rod doing it over Conor Gillaspie.