This is obviously very early, and looking at 2012 you would see a bunch of people that crashed and burned depending on what poll you looked at. This is an aggregate of a few polls.
The Trump polling is interesting. It may largely be name recognition and the fact he'll now be on all polling (if he wasn't already). He filed his FEC paperwork, so maybe he really is trying to win. His commentary is out there, but it does connect with people that hate the politicians dancing around the issues. He tells it like it is, or at least how he sees it, which is much different than the candidates that have every line crafted for them. I don't think he has much of a chance of winning the nomination (I still think Rubio does), but he doesn't have to beg for money (so he can stay the race forever), and he gets as much media exposure as he wants.