Posted by lad_buck on 9/3/2013 9:37:00 PM (view original):
>> Expected out rate: How often balls hit to that area are turned into outs (data through Aug. 28)
defensive metrics dismiss these matters. bonds in the batters box with 3 infielders on the first base side, and a 3rd baseman at shortstop. your numbers reflect no mark mcgwire, facing 3 infielders blocking his view of the left field fence. your numbers do not reflect a first baseman covering second base. and that your numbers entirely ignore pull-hitters, dead-pull-hitters, spray hitters, flyball hitters, and the most simple numbers of all, that say everything typed below.
has anyone ever showed u where u could find the same evaluative info, contained in simply measuring 3 simple things. righties hit with greater predominance to left field and center field, and less frequency to right field. opposite with left handed batters hitting to the first base side. an example would be joey votto, and his errors only when lefties are on the mound, and his errors with right handers on the mound. joey votto is having some error tallies based on who is pitching and who is batting. lefties or righties. it tells everything. not everyone uses numbers to categorize joey votto.
simple numbers create simple expectations. your complex numbers cause u to expect differently, how outs should be credited, as each season is not an assembly line of programmable robots. left, center, and right. very simple to track when simplified. right handers and left handers are the only numbers that tell the whole story and what goes into the simple equation determining defense. chances and errors is still a fundamental battle explained by the predominance of pitching.
i dont even see a "predicted, and expected" out rate as even having a 30% to 40% success rate at determining whether a ball could be caught, or not. u are simply trapped in a whirlpool. u pretend that its solid ground, even while standing in quicksand with numbers that weigh u down, and leave u empty.