All Forums > Hardball Dynasty Baseball > Hardball Dynasty > Who Should I Draft with #1 Pick?
8/8/2013 12:58 AM
I have $14M in College, $20M is HS. I am heavily leaning to player 1, but am concerned about my $14M in College Scouting vs$20M in HS.

P1-19 years old, Community College-S14M SCOUTING
                          CON     POW       vL     vR      EYE    BR     Range   Glove  ARMS     ARMAC Health  MUP     Speed       OAV
Current               70        62          58     55       55      60        67          65       73             54          89          92         80            66                      
Projected           93        72          81     71        70      81       80          86        93             84          99          97         82           96                 

P2-18 years old, High School-$20M Scouting
                          CON     POW       vL     vR      EYE    BR     Range   Glove  ARMS     ARMAC Health  MUP     Speed       OAV
Current               56        69          42     36       61      34        48          42       47            42          84          70       100              53
Projected           93        97          68     57        82      56       62          58        54            55          88          79       100             90

Player one looks like a franchise 3B (SS??), all -star, but the high school kid,where I have better scouting looks like his ceiling is 50/50.

Please straighten me out. And yeah, I hate the idea of choosing a 1B/LF for the first pick.



8/8/2013 7:41 AM
Personally, I would take the HS player. That combination of speed, contact, and power is hard to find. And his 82 eye is more than enough to capitalize on his 90+ skills. The vR is a little worrisome, but I think his other ratings make up for it. A very nice looking left fielder or first baseman.
8/8/2013 9:30 AM
Me too.  93 Contact/97 Power/100 Speed....man you don't find that combo much.  He may have trouble reaching the Power number, however.  28 points is a lot of power growth.  But even at 92, he's a heck of a player.  With that Contact and that Speed, he'll be close to 40 Doubles every year...if not over.

An important factor would be Durability. If one of these guys Projects out in the 70's that would be a factor to consider.  It doesn't impact the 1B as much.  I got 142 starts out of my 1B with a Durability of 76 this year.  Rested him with some regularity.  He hit 99%, for the 1st time, on the 161st game.

A Durability in the high 80's or 90's often breaks the tie for me.  That guy plays nearly every day.

The 3B  would be something like a career .310-.370-.470 guy, and he would win a bunch of GG's at 3rd...plus he wouldn't kill you at 2B or SS, even.

But I would still take the other guy, especially if he has high Durability.

moe
8/8/2013 9:43 AM
HS kid never comes close to those proj.
College kid is already a ML bench player, and with a CURRENT 92 makeup, he'll be an above average hitting 3B. The HS kid would have to hit every projection to beat what the college kid is near guaranteed to become.
8/8/2013 10:02 AM
Of those two guys I am taking player #1.
8/8/2013 10:34 AM
Posted by usfbully on 8/8/2013 10:02:00 AM (view original):
Of those two guys I am taking player #1.
Agree.  But if those are the two top hitters, I take a pitcher.
8/8/2013 10:37 AM

I'm frankly startled a couple of guys I respect would take player 2-- I don't see this as close, at all.

Player 1 is going to get close to all his projections except AA.  Moe's got him projected correctly, but he's also going to steal 20 bases in 23 tries, just for fun.
Player 2:
     (a) isn't THAT much better a hitter than player 1 as projected-- about .280/.360/.550 if he hits his projections.  It's hard to be a superstar hitter with a VsR of 57.
     (b) is headed for 80 CON and slightly lower than 97 Power, rather than his actual projections, which makes him more like .270/.350/.530, which is really only a touch better than player 1
     (c) is going to steal 35 bases in 60 tries, which has negative value, and
     (d) is a freakin' LF.

It's not that Player 2 sucks; he's a very solid, long career starting LF.  But player 1 is going to have about the same RC/27 as Player 2 once you factor in the baserunning, and he has defensive value.

8/8/2013 10:57 AM
#1, and I don't think it's that close. Positional value wins out. Plus, better makeup and much, much closer to his projections than #2. 

8/8/2013 11:02 AM
I so appreciate this input. Re. the "take a pitcher comment", the only pitcher I would consider is:

                                  Stam      Dur     CON     vLH      vRH     VEL     GB/FB     P1    P2     P3     P4     P5     HLTH  MAKEUP    OAV
CURRENT               67         19           51         48         54     20          41          63     65     34     31     0          93          70          52
PROJECTED          86          23          82         83         90     26          47          79     80     50     50     0          99          76           80

Obviously the splits, etc are awesome. Here's my huge concern. The guys induces no ground balls, and will strike no one out. I see him as a #3 starter. Hate to waste a number one pick on a middle of rotation guy. Tell me I'm wrong. I'd love a pitcher. I need a pitcher, but  I hate the VEL and GB/FB. Please straighten me out!!


8/8/2013 11:23 AM
Right for the wrong reasons.  Velo is almost meaningless, and if he were going to hit those projections the low GB/FB would be a minor correction; he's a #1 SP if he hits those projections.  But he won't hit them-- where he will end up is SP3-4 territory, with control and splits in the mid 70s.
8/8/2013 11:39 AM
Take #1.  You're banking on a ton of improvement from a really young guy in player #2 and even if you get it his righty split is a headache.  Also if you want him to steal 50 bases he's gonna get caught 25 times with that BR rating.  And it's easier to replace COF production than SS/3B production.  Take #1.
8/8/2013 11:55 AM
Posted by kmcelroy85 on 8/8/2013 11:39:00 AM (view original):
Take #1.  You're banking on a ton of improvement from a really young guy in player #2 and even if you get it his righty split is a headache.  Also if you want him to steal 50 bases he's gonna get caught 25 times with that BR rating.  And it's easier to replace COF production than SS/3B production.  Take #1.
Yep. If the LF/1B isn't going to be a hall of fame type bat, you just can't take a guy like that #1 in my opinion. LF/RF/1B production is so much easier to find than a stud 3B.
8/8/2013 1:21 PM
I see a lot of comments that "so and so won't hit his projections"... this is of interest to me as a first year player about to head into my first ever draft.    Approx.  how much growth is realistic per rate category ?   What is realistic  +7 or +8 per season ? with 4 yrs of growth? ...  assuming coaches / training / playing time are all utilized correctly.
8/8/2013 2:34 PM
4 years of growth, larger earlier in a career, and different between prospect to prospect.  I think 35 is probably the max growth in a category.


As for P vs. 3B (and the LF is out for me), I have a problem with the 3B "projecting" low 70s in vR, PWR, EYE.  If he end up in the upper 60s, he's a major leaguer, but going off overall rating, he's gonna be way more expensive than I would be willing to pay for those numbers.  If he were a switch hitter, it would be more palatable.  The pitcher, velocity and GB/FB I agree are mostly meaningless, I'd be more worried about his pitches.  Not that they're bad, just not great.  But both guys are pretty close and I would probably base my final decision on the following that I don't see anywhere:

Is the 3B a switch hitter?
Is the pitcher 18, so using the high school projections?
What is the patience level for the pitcher?

If the pitcher is a high schooler, with a patience level over 70, I am taking that guy 10 out of 10 times.  He's a number #2 starter you can control for 15 ML seasons at a reasonable cost.  That is hard to find.

If the 3B is a switch hitter and the pitcher is a college guy, I'd probably lean towards the 3B.

If the 3B is RH and the pitcher is a college guy, flip a coin.
8/8/2013 2:39 PM (edited)
Posted by milmont77 on 8/8/2013 1:21:00 PM (view original):
I see a lot of comments that "so and so won't hit his projections"... this is of interest to me as a first year player about to head into my first ever draft.    Approx.  how much growth is realistic per rate category ?   What is realistic  +7 or +8 per season ? with 4 yrs of growth? ...  assuming coaches / training / playing time are all utilized correctly.
It varies player to player by a couple of points, and coaches will matter a lot, but if you have league average or above coaching, my experience is:
  • Drafted Season: 2-4
  • Year 1: 5-7
  • Year 2: 4-6
  • Year 3: 3-5
  • Year 4: 2-4
  • Year 5: 0-2 - 3 if you're really lucky
  • Year 6: 0-1 - 2 if you're really lucky

Most players gain a MAX of around 25 points from where they start...
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