All Forums > Gridiron Dynasty Football > Bryant > Season 91 - DIII Playoffs
7/1/2013 8:11 AM

Out of complete boredom, due to my family being gone this entire month, I plan on doing a complete round by round breakdown and analysis of the entire playoffs. Once the Conference Championships games are completed I will be posting a playoff preview and first round matchup breakdowns. Even if absolutely nobody pays any attention or cares about this thread, I will continue all the way through the Championship game.

7/1/2013 9:54 PM (edited)
Playoff Preview

I used the GUESS player rating formulas to determine the rating of every player on each team. I then used these ratings to determine what I loosely call Offense, Defense, and Projected Starters Rating. I say loosely because I did not go through each team to find out who the real starters were for everyone. I selected the highest rated players at each position when determining the Rankings. Also, I simply just assigned the same formations to every team, and used what would be a “standard” starting squad for everyone. The players selected are 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 FB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 5 OL, 4 DE, 3 LB, 4 DB, 1 K, and 1 P. This would also be known as a Pro-set Offense and a 4-3 Defense. The only teams this didn’t apply to were La Verne (didn’t have a P, so I just used both K’s they had), and Huntingdon (only had 2 LB, so I used 5 DB). I understand that this would have more of an effect on some teams compared to others, but I’ve already spent a lot of time putting this together and didn’t feel like going that much deeper. Aka: this is just for fun. So, below is the breakdown team by team of each region. Followed by some regional analysis. First round matchups will be up by tomorrow morning.

 

Total Team – Exactly how it sounds. It’s the average rating of every player on the team

Offense Rating – Average rating of all projected offensive starters

Defense Rating – Average rating of all projected defensive starters

Projected Starters Rating – Once again, exactly how it sounds. Average rating of all projected starters

(Total Team Rating, Offense Rating, Defense Rating, Projected Starters Rating)

 

NORTH

1.       Whittier (50.49, 53.24, 55.02, 53.68)

2.       Mount Union (48.38, 54.76, 53.18, 53.38)

3.       Colorado (50.21, 56.74, 55.84, 55.74)

4.       Washington (MO) (48.25, 50.86, 54.05, 52.55)

5.       Benedictine (49.67, 56.57, 54.75, 56.10)

6.       Whitworth (47.51, 53.14, 51.95, 51.44)

7.       La Verne (44.94, 50.17, 48.90, 49.36)

8.       Maine Maritime (48.21, 52.30, 51.53, 51.25)

Average Team Rating: 48.46

Average Offense Rating: 53.47

Average Defense Rating: 53.15

Average PS Rating: 52.94

 

SOUTH

1.       Union (NY) (51.69, 57.41, 55.44, 56.28)

2.       Wisconsin-Platteville (48.08, 53.18, 52.93, 52.73)

3.       Linfield (45.75, 54.77, 53.14, 52.96)

4.       Oberlin (47.59, 54.11, 52.00, 51.94)

5.       Concordia (WI) (53.48, 58.28, 58.27, 58.18)

6.       Guilford (49.00, 55.42, 57.66, 55.71)

7.       Washington & Jefferson (48.19, 54.74, 51.90, 53.25)

8.       St. Thomas (49.49, 54.11, 54.45, 53.55)

Average Team Rating: 49.16

Average Offense Rating: 55.25

Average Defense Rating: 54.47

Average PS Rating: 54.33

 

EAST

1.       St. Olaf (50.37, 53.64, 54.95, 53.98)

2.       Loras (50.08, 54.72, 57.53, 55.64)

3.       Susquehanna (51.33, 57.22, 57.10, 56.26)

4.       Gettysburg (50.54, 54.77, 55.97, 54.61)

5.       New Jersey (43.92, 47.31, 49.63, 48.27)

6.       Waynesburg (49.09, 52.50, 54.38, 53.28)

7.       Huntingdon (49.48, 56.57, 53.74, 54.57)

8.       Bridgewater St. (45.13, 48.93, 47.24, 47.77)

Average Team Rating: 48.74

Average Offense Rating: 53.21

Average Defense Rating: 53.82

Average PS Rating: 53.05

 

WEST

1.       Ferrum (52.48, 59.17, 55.66, 56.30)

2.       Defiance (50.21, 56.77, 53.32, 55.30)

3.       King’s (46.53, 51.29, 50.36, 50.23)

4.       Menlo (48.75, 55.18, 53.55, 53.99)

5.       MIT (50.27, 54.62, 54.28, 54.57)

6.       Austin (53.23, 58.24, 58.12, 58.36)

7.       Coast Guard (44.63, 48.37, 49.92, 48.25)

8.       Bluffton (47.24, 52.11, 50.35, 51.26)

Average Team Rating: 49.17

Average Offense Rating: 54.47

Average Defense Rating: 53.19

Average PS Rating: 53.53

 

 

PREDICTIONS

NORTH REGIONAL FINAL

Ratings Picks: Benedictine over Colorado

Cin_ben Picks: Colorado over Benedictine

SOUTH REGIONAL FINAL

Ratings Picks: Concordia (WI) over Guilford

Cin_ben Picks: Concordia (WI) over Wisconsin-Platteville

EAST REGIONAL FINAL

Ratings Picks: Susquehanna over Gettysburg

Cin_ben Picks: Loras over Gettysburg

WEST REGIONAL FINAL

Ratings Picks: Austin over Ferrum

Cin_ben Picks: Austin over Ferrum (I know… boring pick right….)

 

NATIONAL SEMIFINALS

Ratings Picks: Concordia (WI) over Benedictine; Austin over Susquehanna

Cin_ben Picks: Concordia (WI) over Colorado; Loras over Austin (I couldn’t make myself have the same finals as the ratings picks. Lol)

 

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Ratings Picks: Austin over Concordia (WI)

Cin_ben Picks: Concordia (WI) over Loras

 

There you have it folks. It’s going to be either one of two recent champions. No other choice. Everyone else stands no chance. Lol. Of course that’s a lie. This is any given Sunday rules. Any team can knock off anyone else in any given game. So, odds are, I’m completely wrong with almost all my projections. Lol. GL to all.

7/2/2013 8:33 PM (edited)
1st Round

I’m going to make this one a little shorter than I planned. I spent too much time putting the preview together. I’ll be putting more into the following rounds.

 

NORTH

Pretty solid region from top to bottom (minus sim controlled La Verne… and they’re actually not that bad). I wouldn’t say there’s any clear cut favorite in this region. I really believe this region could be won by any of the top 5 seeds. It’s going to be a tough road for Whitworth or Maine Maritime to survive three rounds here. This group should produce some exciting matchups though. Anyway, here’s the game breakdowns.

 

Whittier vs. Maine Maritime

Look for QB Robert Delgado to pass the ball around a lot, and the Whittier defense to get after the opposing QB. Maine Maritime is going to need a complete game on both sides of the ball to pull off the upset.

Keys to the game for Whittier: Get an early lead and don’t let Maine Maritime to keep it close. Force MM to play catchup.

Keys to the game for Maine Maritime: Control the clock. Keep the game low scoring and allow the offense to be balanced. Don’t allow the opposing offense to get rolling.

Prediction: Whittier over Maine Maritime 36-14

Mount Union vs. La Verne

Don’t expect an upset here. SimAI’s don’t traditionally fare too well come playoff time. We’ll see you in the next round Mount Union

Keys to the game for Mount Union: Status quo. Don’t get beat by a sim. But seriously, stop the run and jam the ball down the oppositions throat with RB Patrick Rose and his 1,625 yards.

Keys to the game for La Verne: Huge rushing game by RB Eddie Morrow…… and a miracle.

Prediction: Mount Union over La Verne 42-10

Colorado vs. Whitworth

This is an interesting matchup. The ratings show Colorado as the clear favorite, but I have the feeling that Whitworth will be able to make a game of it. Their defense is going to have to step up if I’m going to be right on this one.

Keys to the game for Colorado: Shut down the running game and make the opponent one dimensional. Force the pass, rush the QB and produce turnovers. The offense is going to put points on the board. Don’t let the other team to keep up.

Keys to the game for Whitworth: Just like Maine Maritime. Control the clock, and keep the score low. Don’t allow QB Jeff Clemons to have freedom in the pocket. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, so DL Michael Rodriguez will have to add to his team leading 9 sacks and put pressure on Clemons.

Prediction: Colorado over Whitworth 37-24

Washington (MO) vs. Benedictine

This is another interesting matchup. Washington (MO) is 14-0, but with a weak schedule. Was it a result of their schedule, or are they for real. I can say this much, lotsabooze knows his team (nice name by the way). Very strong running game to complement a strong defense. Might end up being low scoring due to both teams having strong and stingy defenses. Benedictine is looking to get out of the first round for the first time after winning their conference 3 out of the last 4 seasons.

Keys to the game for Washington (MO): Pound the rock and win the turnover battle.

Keys to the game for Benedictine: Take care of the ball. Get the early lead, and don’t allow the score to be close late.

Prediction: Benedictine over Washington (MO) 28-24 (I don’t like predicting my own game… kinda feel a little biased)

 

SOUTH

This is the strongest region overall according to the ratings. Also, this region is the home of the reigning National Champions in Concordia (WI). There shouldn’t be any gimmes in this group with the only team rating below 52 is Oberlin at 51.94. Union (NY) is looking for that statement playoff run that solidifies their place as a yearly powerhouse, and they won’t have any room for mistakes from the first round and on.

 

Union (NY) vs. St. Thomas

Of all the first round 1 vs 8 matchups this one looks like that best chance for an upset. St. Thomas is a tough draw for a #1 seed. Union (NY) doesn’t average a lot of point, but don’t let that fool you, they have an offense that is capable of putting points on the board. St. Thomas on the other hand does put a lot of points on the board, and they’re not afraid to toss the pigskin around all day long. Don’t be surprised if this one comes down to the wire.

Keys to the game for Union (NY): Don’t let QB Mark Hoskins to put the ball in the end zone. Force FG’s not TD’s. Let RB David Ball carry the load on offense, and be productive in the redzone.

Keys to the game for St. Thomas: Score early score often. Force Union (NY) to pass the ball.

Prediction: Union (NY) over St. Thomas 28-26

Wisconsin-Platteville vs. Washington & Jefferson

This is another close matchup that could go either way. It seems like a lifetime ago that Wisconsin-Platteville went to back to back title games. We’ll see if they’re up for the challenge of getting back there. Chuckie2 has his Washington & Jefferson squad built for a run, and could end up being a near future powerhouse. This game looks like a potential barnburner with a ton of yards and points.

Keys to the game for Wisconsin-Platteville: Score a ton of points and just let QB Franklin Moore do his thing.

Keys to the game for Washington & Jefferson: INT’s, if they can get 2 or 3 of them and not give any away then they should win the game.

Prediction: Wisconsin-Platteville over Washington & Jefferson 44-39 (after looking at this one closer I wanted to pick the upset, but I already predicted Wisconsin-Platteville going to the regional finals)

Linfield vs. Guilford

Kcwallace has been at Linfield for 52 seasons and has another one of his traditional Championship caliber teams. Bugeater50 has been at Guilford for 1 season, and has his own Championship caliber team. I would say that this is one of the best first round matchups this season. Both teams put up points in bunches. The only difference is on defense where Guilford is a little stronger (especially against the pass with 8.6 pass avg against) and gives up 6 fewer points per game.

Keys to the game for Linfield: Run the ball a little more than they normally do. Don’t let Guilford build the early lead.

Keys to the game for Guilford: Make the game a shootout, and let the defense win the game.

Prediction: Guilford over Linfield 32-24

Oberlin vs. Concordia (WI)

This game is ripe for an upset. It’s only really an upset by according to the seeds. Concordia (WI) is the clear favorite here, and that’s not a knock on Oberlin. In any other region Oberlin would have a good chance of making a run, but I just don’t see the defending champs going down here. However, Oberlin is 14-0 and bigger upsets have happened.

Keys to the game for Oberlin: Come out with a strong defensive game plan. Keep Concordia (WI) out of the end zone, and don’t give up turnovers.

Keys to the game for Concordia (WI): Pass the ball with QB Michael Williams ( 41 TD to 4 INT ratio), and his elite WR corps. Defense needs to step up and play more consistently.

Prediction: Concordia (WI) over Oberlin 35-17

 

EAST

This region would be the strongest if not for two teams from top to bottom if not for the bottom being well below the average playoff team. I could see 5 maybe 6 different teams from this region making a run and winning this whole thing. Time will only tell. Everyone should just be looking at making it past the first game. Unfortunately, they won’t all be playing past tomorrow.

St. Olaf vs. Bridgewater St.

This one is probably the least inspiring 1 vs. 8 matchup this season. It’s going to be tough for Bridgewater St. to muster up a W in this one. St. Olaf is coming off their 2nd undefeated regular season in the last 5 years, and is poised to make a deep run.

Keys to the game for St. Olaf: They need to remain balanced on offense and stingy on defense.

Keys to the game for Bridgewater St.: Find any way to put points on the board, and take care of the ball.

Prediction: St. Olaf over Bridgewater St. 27-7

Loras vs. Huntingdon

This is my favorite matchup of the entire first round. Two traditional powerhouses that within the last couple seasons lost their longtime coaches. Which (still new to their teams) coaches will prove to be better for the job.

Keys to the game for Loras: Control the game with that incredibly tough defense (6.9 ppg against).

Keys to the game for Huntingdon: QB Douglas Haines has to have a big game if they are going to come out on top.

Prediction: Loras over Huntingdon 32-31

Susquehanna vs. Waynesburg

Susquehanna is an under the radar team that has the talent to easily make their way through this region. Tough draw for Waynesburg, who would be the favorite against most teams. Waynesburg’s defense is going to have to step up and keep the game close because their offense is going to find it tough to put points on the board against Susquehanna.

Keys to the game for Susquehanna: Don’t be overly aggressive on offense. They’ll get their points, but don’t let QB Justin Jacobs throw the game away.

Keys to the game for Waynesburg: Score early, and run the clock off. Don’t let Susquehanna build a lead.

Prediction: Susquehanna over Waynesburg 29-13

Gettysburg vs. New Jersey

Not exactly your traditional 4 vs. 5 matchup. Unfortunately for New Jersey, they appear to be overmatched in this one (at least according to the ratings). I wouldn’t be too surprised if New Jersey is able keep this one close though. This is the playoff debut for delfubar, and he gets a trial by fire in the first round. He’s already proven that he can make the upset happen with the Conference Championship game victory over Huntingdon.

Keys to the game for Gettysburg: Let RB Thomas Murphy continue to run like a mad man (3,319 yds 21 tds)

Keys to the game for New Jersey: Score when you get the chance. All out run defense.

Prediction: Gettysburg over New Jersey 40-21

 

WEST

This is a well balanced region, but has the highest rated team in DIII with Austin. Ferrum and Defiance are looking to make Austin’s road to another title a difficult one. Beyond those three teams, there are still some other teams that could come out of this region. That’s just how well balanced, and strong the West is.

Ferrum vs. Bluffton

Look for Ferrum to get their high powered offense rolling and QB Carl Johnson to add to his 56 TD’s on the season. Bluffton’s defense is the wildcard here. With a low rating they are still producing around 3 TO’s per game. The question is, if Bluffton wins the TO battle will it be enough to get them to pull off the big upset.

Keys to the game for Ferrum: Don’t settle for field goals, and put the game out of reach early

Keys to the game for Bluffton: Two words…. D…. fence…. Gonna need a lot of it to withstand Ferrums offense.

Prediction: Ferrum over Bluffton 44-20

Defiance vs. Coast Guard

Bad news for Coast Guard. According to the ratings, this is the second most lopsided matchup of the first round. Once again, anything can happen. My money is on Defiance on this one though

Keys to the game for Defiance: Balanced game plan on offense and defense.

Keys to the game for Coast Guard: Allow QB Keith Kerr to air it out, and hope for the game of his life. That, and some consistency on defense would help.

Prediction: Defiance over Coast Guard 37-10

King’s vs. Austin

Speaking of lopsided matchups, this is the most lopsided according to the ratings. How does Austin go undefeated and have the highest rated team in DIII and get a 6 seed. Must be that 226 ranked SOS. I don’t think that’s going to help King’s out here though. King’s has a strong team, but they just ran up against a monster of a team in the first round.

Keys to the game for King’s: Find any way possible to slow down the opponents’ offense. They have to put points on the board anytime they get a chance.

Keys to the game for Austin: Stick to the game plan, and don’t let the King’s passing game to keep them in the game.

Prediction: Austin over King’s 50-24

Menlo vs. MIT

This should be a good matchup. Menlo has the edge on offense, while MIT has the edge on defense. Either way, I expect there to be a ton of points. Will Menlo’s freshman (and DIII Player of the year) QB Ramon Wilson carry Menlo to victory, or will he be rattled by MIT’s defense that gives up less than 10 ppg.

Keys to the game for Menlo: Take care of the ball, and don’t settle for FG’s.

Keys to the game for MIT: Put the opposing QB on his back, and force punts. Don’t forget to put points on the board. Menlo is going to get their points. Just make them work for it, and don’t give up easy TD’s.

Prediction: Menlo over MIT 34-28

 

Well, I just lied. I didn’t mean to put so much into this write up, but the words were just flowing off my fingertips. Lol. After the first round games I’ll post a first round analysis followed by second round breakdowns. I hope someone…. anyone… is enjoying this. Either way, I’ll keep this coming.

 

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First Round Review

 

NORTH

Cin_ben’s Picks: Whittier, Mount Union, Colorado, Benedictine

Results: Whittier, Mount Union, Whitworth, Benedictine

Cin_ben’s North record: 3-1

 

Whittier vs. Maine Maritime

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 36-14 Whittier

Final Score: 38-10 Whittier

Maine Maritime was able to keep the game low scoring and close in the first half, but they missed out on several chances to put points on the board. Three first half drives started on the opponents side of the 50 yard line for Maine Maritime. The result? Seven plays, 25 yards, two punts, and a fumble following a 20 yard play. They also missed on a crucial 35 yard FG. The second half was a different story as Whittier was able to get their offense going. In their first two possessions Whittier produced 151 yards and 14 points. The game was essentially over at that point.

Mount Union vs. La Verne

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 42-10 Mount Union

Final Score: 44-10 La Verne

The stat line was actually a lot closer than the final score. La Verne had only one less first down, 82 less yards, and only 1 more turnover than Mount Union. The major difference was the ability to finish drives. La Verne’s three longest drives ended with a missed 49 yard FG attempt, their only TD, and a fumble on the Mount Union 12 yard line that was picked up by MU’s Junior D-lineman Donald Cannon and returned for a TD. Patrick Rose had another monster day for Mount Union while racking up 208 rushing yards and carrying the load for his team in dominating fashion.

Colorado vs. Whitworth

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 37-24 Colorado

Final Score: 20-17 Whitworth

Whitworth played the perfect game to pull off the upset. They dominated ball possession with nearly 10 more minutes with the ball in their hands. They converted on 50% of 3rd downs (10/20) and 67% of 4th downs (2/3). They kept the game close and managed to put together an incredible 18 play 67 yard drive on their last possession to get the game winning TD as the clock ran out on Jerry Benson’s 1 yard scamper into the end zone. QB Gary Day was barely able to stop the clock with 1 second left with a spike to set up Benson’s TD. Colorado has to feel a little heartbroken after making the comeback only to have their defense let them down late. Overall, Colorado had a good game only giving up 4.8 yards per pass, and 2.5 against the rush. The D just didn’t get enough support from their offense. I will say that it doesn’t help the offense when you don’t have any drive that starts beyond their own 37 yard line. Great game with an exciting finish. Could end up being the closest game throughout the playoffs.

Washington (MO) vs. Benedictine

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 28-24 Benedictine

Final Score: 28-18 Benedictine

Not a whole lot of excitement in this one compared to the Colorado/Whitworth game. Washington (MO) was able to keep the game close in the first half after getting -7 yard sack for a safety on Kenneth Brooks. 14-8 halftime lead for Benedictine. Washington (MO) made a 3 point game late in the 3rd with John Greene hitting from an incredible 50 yards out. However, that would be as close as they would get. Benedictine would put the game away with back to back long drives producing 14 points off of an 80 yard drive and an 8 play 97 yard drive that ate up crucial minutes in the middle of the 4th QTR. Washington (MO) were able to get 7 more points, but there just wasn’t enough time left on the clock to really get back into the game

 

SOUTH

Cin_ben’s Picks: Union (NY), Wisconsin-Platteville, Guilford, Concordia (WI)

Results: Union (NY), Wisconsin-Platteville, Guilford, Concordia (WI)

Cin_ben’s South record: 4-0

 

Union (NY) vs. St. Thomas

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 28-26 Union (NY)

Final Score: 38-35 Union (NY)

This game very well could have produced a #8 upsetting a #1. It’s happened before, but not exactly common. What was it that cost St. Thomas on their upset bid? That’s probably the easiest question to answer in this game. 6 TO that Union (NY) turned into 17 point, and one missed FG. St. Thomas dominated the game beyond the TO battle, while outgaining Union (NY) 460 yards to 318 yards. They also converted on just under 75% of 3rd downs compared to Union (NY) with 50% conversion. On drives that started on their own side of the 50 yard line Union (NY) was only able to produce 2 TD’s while punting the ball 7 times. Coach ruplayer and his Union (NY) squad have to be a little concerned after this game, but they get a chance to redeem themselves and will be moving on to the next round.

Wisconsin-Platteville vs. Washington & Jefferson

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 44-39 Wisconsin-Platteville

Final Score: 44-21 Wisconsin-Platteville

This is another game that the stat line doesn’t really match up with the final score. Wisconsin-Platteville only outgained Washington & Jefferson by 26 yards. They both had the same number of penalties, 6 each, and Washington & Jefferson gave up 2 TO’s compared to Wisconsin-Platteville’s 1. The big difference was field position. Both teams were able to consistently put together decent drives. However, Washington & Jefferson only had 2 drives that started beyond their own 30 yard line compared to 7 drives starting beyond their own 30 yard line for Wisconsin-Platteville. It makes it a lot easier to score when you’re starting point is constantly closer to the end zone.

Linfield vs. Guilford

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 32-24 Guilford

Final Score: 26-21 Guilford

This was another close game that came down to the final drive. Unfortunately for Linfield, there just wasn’t enough time left on the clock to finish off their last minute drive after navigating from their own 23 down to the opponents 34 in the last 1:19. Linfield actually had the lead late in the 4th, until James Herbert connected with Roland Everett for Guilford to close out a 9 play 56 yard game winning drive. Both teams struggled to take care of the ball in a somewhat sloppy game with 5 TO’s and 15 penalties for 131 yards combined. Bugeater50 will look to clean up the sloppy play in the next round as they move on.

Oberlin vs. Concordia (WI)

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 35-17 Concordia (WI)

Final Score: 49-19 Concordia (WI)

The game was over pretty quickly. Concordia (WI) got into the end zone on each of their first 5 possessions. Yes that’s right. 5 possessions, 1.5 quarters and the score was 35-6. The second half was a lot closer with Concordia (WI) winning the final 2 quarters 14-13, but it was too little too late for Oberlin. Warrior0510 will be looking to next season, and will try to get back to the playoffs again for his first back to back playoff appearances since seasons 87-88. I pretty sure they will be back as they are consistently a top team with at least 10 wins in each of the last 15 seasons.

 

EAST

Cin_ben’s Picks: St. Olaf, Loras, Susquehanna, Gettysburg

Results: St. Olaf, Loras, Waynesburg, New Jersey

Cin_ben’s East record: 2-2

 

St. Olaf vs. Bridgewater St.

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 27-7 St. Olaf

Final Score: 17-10 St. Olaf

I had this one as a low scoring game, and that was accurate, but this turned out to be a lot closer than I expected. Bridgewater St. dominated the running game with 233 yards on 57 carries compared to 74 yards on 25 carries for St. Olaf. However, Bridgewater St. gave up 235 yards on 10 pass completions while only picking up 91 yards on 9 completions. After a tight game in the first half with a score of 10-10, Bridgewater St. came out in the 3rd quarter and put together a drive that could have ended up leading them to victory. After starting on their own 36 yard line, they drove 8 plays for 59 yards, but came up short after fumbling the ball on the 5 yard line. That would prove to be the closest they would get to scoring for the rest of the game. St. Olaf took advantage late in the 3rd with Richard Lang connecting with Paul Hightower deep over the middle for a 76 yard TD. That would end up being the deciding play of the game as St. Olaf moves on.

Loras vs. Huntingdon

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 32-31 Loras

Final Score: 38-12 Loras

The matchup that pitted two historically successful teams turned out to be more lopsided that expected. Loras gained 2.4 more yards per pass and an additional 2.4 more yards per rush than Huntingdon. Even with Loras having this edge, Huntingdon was able to keep the game somewhat close until the 4th quarter. In the 4th, Loras scored on offense, defense and special teams while finishing the game on a 17-0 run. This one might have been a different story if Huntingdon didn’t turn the ball over 6 times including 3 INT’s in their final 4 possessions. Coachcrow will look to next season now as Huntingdon will try to get back to the playoffs where they’ve been for an unprecedented 24 straight seasons.

Susquehanna vs. Waynesburg

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 29-13 Susquehanna

Final Score: 16-13 Waynesburg

So much for being an under the radar team for Susquehanna. Waynesburg defense stepped up big time, and K David Carter were able to squeak out an extremely close and competitive game. Susquehanna thought they might have saved their season when they scored late in the 4th to tie the game up, but a strange series of events would follow that would end Susquehanna’s season. After the game was tied up, Waynesburg drove 60 yards on 5 plays only to have RB Kenneth Kirby cough the ball up on the 3 yard line. With 1:35 on the clock and 96 yard to go, most teams would just run the clock out to avoid possibly given up great field position with time to play. However, Susquehanna called a timeout after a sack on 1st down. Susquehanna would end up going 3 and out and only eating up 15 seconds off the clock. With the ball on the 4 yard line, P William Witt would punt out of his own end zone to the 45 yard line. After a 10 yard punt return, Waynesburg had the ball again on the opponents 35 with 1:11 remaining and 2 timeouts remaining. Waynesburg would run a handful of plays and convert a big 3rd and 10 that allowed them to run the clock down to 4 seconds. K David Carter would kick the game winning 20 yard field goal as time expired to end the game. Exciting game that has to be a tough one to take for the Susquehanna side.

Gettysburg vs. New Jersey

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 40-21 Gettysburg

Final Score: 25-22 New Jersey

Well, I have to eat my own words on this one. New Jersey came out and dominated the game while outgaining Gettysburg by nearly 150 yards. After getting an early TD, Gettysburg were not able to get back into the end zone. New Jersey won this field goal with tons of drama. Gettysburg thought they had the game won when they were able to take the lead with 1:39 remaining, but New Jersey had some fight left in them. After a 39 yard kick return by RB John Rossi, New Jersey would drive another 18 yards on 6 plays to set up the game timing FG as time expired. The teams would trade FG’s in the first 3 OT’s. The 4th OT would be a different story as Gettysburg came out and were only able to gain 1 yard on 3 plays and K Frank Zavala missed the 41 yard FG. This left the door open as New Jersey picked up 8 yards on 3 plays to set up K Gregory White’s game winning FG in 4 OT’s. New Jersey will look to continue to surprise as they move on.

 

WEST

Cin_ben’s Picks: Ferrum, Defiance, Austin, Menlo

Results: Ferrum, Defiance, Austin, Menlo

Cin_ben’s West record: 4-0

 

Ferrum vs. Bluffton

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 44-20 Ferrum

Final Score: 41-25 Ferrum

Once again, the stat line was close, but the final score was not. The two teams were only separated by a total of 7 yards on offense in Bluffton’s favor. Bluffton would only be done in by their 3 TO’s as Ferrum didn’t have any TO’s. Each half would see Bluffton turn the ball over on their first possession. Ferrum made them pay for those mistakes as the would get 7 points off each of those TO’s. If you take away those 14 points then it’s a 27-25 game and a whole different story.

Defiance vs. Coast Guard

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 37-10 Defiance

Final Score: 38-15 Defiance

This one could have been a lot closer if not for two missed FG’s and a 52 yard drive resulting in a punt for a net 0 points for Coast Guard. However, even if they end up get 13 points out of those three possessions it would still be a 10 point win for Defiance. The only area of the game that Defiance didn’t win in this one was the TO battle (2 to 1). There really wasn’t a chance for Coast Guard as they gave up 10 quick points and allowed Defiance to rush for 4.9 yards per carry on 41 carries for a total of 199 rushing yards. Defiance will look to continue their playoff run as the competition will get tougher in the next round.

King’s vs. Austin

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 50-24 Austin

Final Score: 26-17 Austin

There were a lot fewer points than expected even though the two teams combined for 741 total yards of offense. King’s were able to keep the game close with the score 10-3 at the half, but Austin just had too much for them after the break. With the score at 17-3 to open the 4th, King’s would try to mount a comeback. After cutting Austin’s lead to 3 points with 3:26 to play, Austin were able to answer with a 6 play 50 yard game clinching drive that put the game out of reach. Once again, this was a tough draw for a strong King’s team that were looking to make a statement. They just ran up against the wrong opponent in the first round as Austin will be looking to their second round matchup.

Menlo vs. MIT

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 34-28 Menlo

Final Score: 20-16 Menlo

Here’s another unexpected low scoring game. MIT did an amazing job getting after the QB and significantly limiting the high powered Menlo offense. Menlo QB Ramon Wilson was under pressure all game as he gave up 6 sacks, 1 INT, and was forced to scramble 12 times while finishing 29 for 49 with 294 yards passing and rushing 19 times for -9 yards. MIT were able to build a 13-10 halftime lead that carried over to a 16-13 4th quarter lead. With great field position on MIT’s 38 following a 33 yard punt return by RB Justin Peters, QB Ramon Wilson would regain his composure. He would lead Menlo on a 6 play 38 yard drive to put Menlo ahead 20-16 with 1:02 remaining in the game. That would end up being the final score as Menlo moves on after a real scare from a very strong MIT squad.

 

Cin_ben Prediction Record: 13-3

 

This completes the first round review. I’ll have the second round breakdown out after a short dinner break. Hopefully I can continue to as close as I’ve been on my predictions, both winners and scores were surprisingly (at least to me) close in the first round.

 

7/3/2013 7:17 PM (edited)
Regional Semifinals

The second round has a lot of heavy hitters meeting up. It’s probably going to be much harder to accurately predict the outcomes from here on out.

 

NORTH

Probably not the strongest region with the final four teams. I could honestly see any of the four teams making it out of the region to the National Semifinals.

 

Whittier vs. Benedictine

This is a rematch of a week 1 matchup that saw Whittier get the W with a 22-10 win. Week 1 was a long time ago, and both teams have come a long way to get to this rematch. Both teams typically like to ride their high quality QB’s to victory every week. This game should be a close one that comes down to a costly TO or a big play on Special Teams.

Keys to the game for Whittier: Continue to produce TO’s and convert those into points

Keys to the game for Benedictine: Don’t get down early. Don’t let the coach give too much information away on this thread. Lol

Prediction: Benedictine over Whittier 28-26

Mount Union vs. Whitworth

Whitworth completed the upset of Colorado in the first round, and will look to continue to surprise people as the take on RB Patrick Rose and Mount Union. Whitworth’s QB Gary Day will have to have a big game, as Mount Union typically doesn’t allow too much in the rushing game. Day will have to move the ball and avoid giving up TO’s which he has struggled with at times this season. RB Patrick Rose should end up carrying the load again for Mount Union as they try to avoid going the way of Colorado.

Keys to the game for Mount Union: Put pressure on the QB. Score early to take the pressure off the offense.

Keys to the game for Whitworth: Contain the running game. Take care of the ball.

Prediction: Mount Union over Whitworth 21-18

 

SOUTH

All four teams remaining are championship caliber. This region is going to be probably the hardest to predict. Should be a great regional final no matter who makes it.

 

Union (NY) vs. Concordia (WI)

Union (NY) looks to bounce back after a near defeat against St. Thomas. They’re going to find it difficult against an elite Concordia (WI) team that is all of a sudden hot after hitting on all cylinders in the first round. Look for Concordia (WI) to push the temp and try to make it a shootout, while Union (NY) plays tough defense to keep try and keep it a low scoring affair.

Keys to the game for Union (NY): Force 3rd and long. Contain the opponents WR’s and get the defense off the field

Keys to the game for Concordia (WI): Score early and my Union (NY) play up-tempo.

Prediction: Concordia (WI) over Union (NY) 32-21

Wisconsin-Platteville vs. Guilford

This should be a high scoring game as both teams average over 40 ppg. Whoever can play better defense should win the game. Both teams like to pass the ball a lot. Which QB will be more successful? Guilford’s James Herbert has thrown for 6,298 yards with 61 TD’s and 22 INT’s, while Wisconsin-Platteville’s Franklin Moore has thrown for  6,143 yards with 76 TD’s and 14 INT’s. This one could go either way.

Keys to the game for Wisconsin-Platteville: Don’t forget to allow RB Mark Raines to get his touches.

Keys to the game for Guilford: QB James Herbert needs to make sure he makes smart choices as he airs it out.

Prediction: Wisconsin-Platteville over Guilford 42-38

 

EAST

There were a couple upsets that have shaken this region up. The top two seeds need to watch out as their opponents are well coached and will bring their A game as they try to make another upset.

 

St. Olaf vs. New Jersey

I was historically wrong in predicting New Jersey to be well overmatched in the first round. They’ve made me a little bit of a believer here, but can they do it again in back to back games that they will be the underdog. They will need to get another big game out of their defense. St. Olaf needs to come out and play their game and don’t allow New Jersey to keep the game close.

Keys to the game for St. Olaf: Play shutdown defense to take pressure off the offense.

Keys to the game for New Jersey: Control the clock, and convert on 3rd down. QB Craig Ingram is going to be forced to make some plays as the running game won’t be able to win this game by themselves.

Prediction: St. Olaf over New Jersey 24-13

Loras vs. Waynesburg

Waynesburg made the other upset in the first round in this group. They look to take over the role as the under the radar team. It’s not going to get any easier for them as they take on a Loras team that look particularly strong in the first round against Huntingdon. Look for both teams to play with somewhat balanced offenses. The difference here might just be on defense as Waynesburg gives up and average of 15.7 ppg compared to Loras with 7.3 ppg.

Keys to the game for Loras: push the tempo and force the opponent’s offense to try to keep up.

Keys to the game for Waynesburg: They have to take advantage of any opportunity they get to score, and keep the opponent out of the end zone.

Prediction: Loras over Waynesburg 31-13

 

WEST

Just like the South, this another really strong region with two great matchups in the second round. So, here I go trying to predict two games that could go either way.

 

Ferrum vs. Menlo

I expect a high scoring game with two offenses that are hard to slow down. Player of the year QB Ramon Wilson will look to bounce back for Menlo after a rough outing in the first round. Ferrum will be looking to take notes on MIT’s defense so they can slow down that Air Assault offense. Both teams are fully capable of scoring on every possession, but both teams also have defenses that can end up making this a low scoring game as well.

Keys to the game for Ferrum: Get the running game going to complement the strong pass attack.

Keys to the game for Menlo: Protect the QB. Get the offense in rhythm early on.

Prediction: Ferrum over Menlo 42-32

Defiance vs. Austin

Defiance is looking for a statement game in the playoffs as coach_sean has his squad improving every season and look to be one of the new elite powerhouses. They certainly have the talent to take down extremely strong Austin team that looks to keep the title train rolling. Don’t be surprised if this comes down to the last possession, or if Defiance walks away as the winner here.

Keys to the game for Defiance: Red zone defense will be huge if they can keep Austin out of the end zone.

Keys to the game for Austin: Shut down the opponents rushing game and force them to pass to keep up.

Prediction: Austin over Defiance 27-22

 

 

There you have it folks. Time will only tell how these games actually turn out. Looking forward to less games to review tomorrow. This thread has literally taken all my free time the last two days. Lol.

 

 

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Regional Semifinals Review

 

NORTH

Cin_ben’s Picks: Benedictine, Mount Union

Results: Whittier, Whitworth

Cin_ben’s North record: 3-3

 

Whittier vs. Benedictine

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 28-26 Benedictine

Final Score: 20-18 Whittier

Please don’t blame me for refusing to pick my own team to lose… Benedictine opens and closes their season losing to Whittier. The rematch turned out to be a lot closer as Whittier was pushed all the way to their last possession. This game was of the few close games in the second round. Benedictine would open up the game with a long drive that resulted in zero points as K Bobby Cox missed on a 39 yard FG. Those three points would come back to haunt them. The first half was uneventful as they went into the half at 3-3. The second half on the other hand had tons of excitement. Whittier got things going with a 76 yard TD pass as QB Robert Delgado connected with WR Ramon Goldberg. Not to be outdone, Benedictine’s DB David Williams picks off a Delgado pass and returned it for a TD less than two minutes later. Whittier was unfazed as they took their next possession 58 yards to put 7 more points on the board. After a sack by DL George Moore that produced a safety for Benedictine early in the 4th, the excitement died back down for a nearly the rest of the game. Just a few minutes left in the game, and potentially their last real chance, Benedictine were able to put a drive together and get into the end zone with 2:08 remaining. After a failed two point conversion, the door was left open for Whittier trailing only by 1 point. Whittier maintained their composure as they converted on a 4th and 8 that would have won the game for Benedictine. However, Whittier would continue their drive and close it out with a 26 yard FG from K Norman Welch with 11 seconds left on the clock. Tough one for Benedictine to swallow, but Whittier will be moving on from this one.

Mount Union vs. Whitworth

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 21-18 Mount Union

Final Score: 23-21 Whitworth

The second game would end with a close score as well, but with a little less drama. Whitworth proved me wrong for the second straight game. They dominated the stat line with 10 more first downs, and just over 170 more total yards than Mount Union who just couldn’t seem to get their ground and pound rushing game going. Mount Union would pull within 7 points with less than 1 minute left in the 3rd as they tried to mount a comeback. Whitworth would turn the ball over once and only get past the 50 yard line once in the entire final quarter. However, they did manage to get some points as they stuffed Mount Union RB Patrick Rose in his own end zone as Rose finished with only 12 rushes for a total of 35 yards at 2.9 per carry. Those 2 points would prove to be enough as Mount Union would only get one more possession and end up going 3 and out. Mount Union did manage to pull within 2 points of the lead when DB Claude Harrell intercepted a pass and took it to the house. If Rose could have just got out of his own end zone would could have seen an overtime game here, but Whitworth came to play and will look to continue their improbable run tomorrow.

 

SOUTH

Cin_ben’s Picks: Concordia (WI), Wisconsin-Platteville

Results: Union (NY), Guilford

Cin_ben’s South record: 4-2

 

Union (NY) vs. Concordia (WI)

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 32-21 Concordia (WI)

Final Score: 42-23 Union (NY)

A 20-14 first half lead was not enough for Concordia (WI) as their defense let them down in the second half. Give full credit to Union (NY) for any and all halftime adjustments as they went on to win the second half by a score of 28-3. The stat line is incredibly close for a game that is so one sided. The only real separation for Union (NY) was on 3rd downs as they converted 67% of the time going 8 for 12. That’s a huge advantage compared to Concordia (WI) as they were only able to convert on only 6 of their 16 3rd down possessions. Concordia (WI) did have one slimmer of hope as they were looking to make it a 7 point ball game mid way through the 4th. They were driving into Union (NY) territory, and looking like they might put things together, as it would be ruined by an INT by QB Michael Williams. Union (NY) would turn the TO into points and put the game completely out of reach at that point.

Wisconsin-Platteville vs. Guilford

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 42-38 Wisconsin-Platteville

Final Score: 27-24 Guilford

The final close game of the second round saw Guilford continue to make their run as the new under the radar team. This game is a tale of four different stories. The game started with Wisconsin-Platteville producing over 130 yards and 10 points on their first three possessions, while only allowing Guilford to gain a total of 20 total yards on offense and picked off Guilford’s QB James Herbert once in the first 14 minutes of the game. Guilford would take over from there. The next five possessions for Guilford would go as followed: 5 plays 70 yards TD, 5 plays 90 yards TD, 6 plays 80 yards TD, 10 plays 51 yards FG, and 6 plays 35 yards FG. Guilford’s defense dominated at the same time forcing Wisconsin-Platteville’s next six possessions to go as follows: 8 plays 28 yards Punt, 3 plays 0 yards Punt, 3 plays 0 yards Punt, 7 plays 55 yards Missed FG, 4 plays 32 yards Fumble, and 7 plays 93 yards with a TO on downs as Wisconsin-Platteville went for a 4th and 4 on the Guilford 5 yard line. Wisconsin-Platteville would turn things back around as the would convert a Herbert INT into 7 points and follow that up with a 6 play 62 yard drive for a TD to make it a 3 point game with almost the entire 4th quarter to go. The final chapter would see Wisconsin-Platteville QB Franklin Moore throw this game away. Their final two drives would end with 6 plays for 32 yards and an INT followed by a 6 play 50 yard drive that would end with another INT on the Guilford 6 yard line with 3:59 remaining. Guilford would give Wisconsin-Platteville another chance as they ran off the clock with a 12 play 85 yard drive eating up the rest of the clock. Crazy game that Guilford will happily move on from.

 

EAST

Cin_ben’s Picks: St. Olaf, Loras

Results: St. Olaf, Loras

Cin_ben’s East record: 4-2

 

St. Olaf vs. New Jersey

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 24-13 St. Olaf

Final Score: 31-7 St. Olaf

There’s not a whole lot to break down in this game as St. Olaf dominated in every facet of the game. St. Olaf produced nearly 200 more yards of offense while outgaining New Jersey in both the passing and running games. New Jersey didn’t get past the 50 yard line until midway through the 4th quarter, and only had two drives of over 29 yards for the entire game. Those two drive were on their last two possessions. The only bright spot for New Jersey was when they prevented the shutout by getting into the end zone on a 6 yard run by RB John Rossi. After pulling off a big upset in the first round it looks like New Jersey’s luck had just run out as St. Olaf is looking to the next round.

Loras vs. Waynesburg

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 31-13 Loras

Final Score: 54-21 Loras

This was another one that was over quickly and completely dominated by one team as Loras put double digits on the scoreboard in each quarter. Waynesburg was only down by 12 at the half, but appeared outmatched, and it would be more of the same in the second half. Loras was able to gain just over 500 yards on offense on the day while rushing 61 times for 391 yards. Loras split the massive amount of carries between their workhorses RB Jerry Adams (23 carries, 189 yards) and RB Paul Salgado (20 carries, 134 yards). Waynesburg season earlier than they had hoped as Loras will be preparing for the regional finals.

 

WEST

Cin_ben’s Picks: Ferrum, Austin

Results: Ferrum, Austin

Cin_ben’s West record: 6-0

 

Ferrum vs. Menlo

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 42-32 Ferrum

Final Score: 43-14

A high scoring game was expect, but only one team was able to come through with big numbers. Menlo scored once early and once late, but Ferrum dominated everything in between. If you take away the second quarter then this becomes a one possession game. However, that second quarter was won by Ferrum by a score of 21-0. Ferrum’s P Arthur Goff only walked out onto the field four times all game as Ferrum either put points on the board or Menlo produced a TO on all other possessions. While Menlo was able to move the ball around and gain over 300 yards on offense, they struggle to put together and close out long drives. Having -20 yards rushing didn’t help Menlo’s cause either as Ferrum was able to put up over 200 yards rushing and over 300 yards passing for a total of 557 total yards. Ferrum will try to continue their dominance in the next round.

Defiance vs. Austin

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 27-22 Austin

Final Score: 44-17 Austin

The final game of the day was another blowout as Austin won the game with a dominant 31-3 first half. Defiance would fare much better in the second half as the won the final two quarters 14-13. It was too little too late in a game that was a lot closer on the stat line than what the final score shows. Defiance barely got on the board in the first half as K John Reid hit from 19 yards as time expired. Almost identical numbers both passing in rushing for the two teams, but it was Austin that were able to finish their drives in the end zone as they’ll be preparing for a monster of a matchup in the next round.

 

 

That wraps up the second round. Stay tuned later for the Regional Finals breakdowns.

7/5/2013 3:59 PM (edited)
Regional Finals

Eight teams left as the title contenders separate themselves from the rest of the field.

 

NORTH

I think we should name this one the battle of the Whit’s. lol. I know that’s cheesy, but I like cheesy things, so you’re going to have to just live with it. But seriously, these are two teams that survived extremely close games in the last round. Should be a good one.

 

Whittier vs. Whitworth

I think Whitworth is enjoying me picking against them as they’ve proved me wrong in both the first two rounds. Whittier came into the playoffs as the number one team in all of DIII and have a prime opportunity to continue their success and reach the National Semifinals. Both teams love to pass the ball while still getting their running backs some touches. The big difference is on defense where Whittier proves to be a little stronger, but Whitworth certainly has the talent to shut down any teams offense. If Whittier QB Robert Delgado can have a good game then this could end up one sided, but I expect Whitworth to put up a good fight and keep it close while trying to steal the game from the #1 team.

Prediction: Whittier over Whitworth 28-20

 

SOUTH

After going 0-2 on second round predictions here, hopefully we can get one right for the Regional Final. We lost the top rated team, but gained a very intriguing matchup with two even matched teams. This is another one that could go either way as both teams are highly rated on offense and defense

 

Union (NY) vs. Guilford

While Union (NY) plays a balanced grind it out style of offense, Guilford is an air it out team that likes to put points on the board. With both teams averaging over 3 defensive takeaways per game, ball security and smart QB play will be crucial. This might hurt Guilford as they tend to take more chances and are more aggressive on offense. I really think this could be anything from low scoring and close to a blowout by either team.

Prediction: Guilford over Union (NY) 32-31

 

EAST

The only region to have the top two seeds make it out of the first two rounds. Both teams are undefeated, and primed to produce an exciting game.

 

St. Olaf vs. Loras

Both teams won easily in the second round. Both teams have extremely stingy defenses. Both teams are well balanced on offense and put a lot of points on the board. Point being, we are looking at identical teams with tons of talent and similar game plans. The only major difference is on defense where Loras seems to have just a little bit more talent, and can afford to be more aggressive going after TO’s. They might find it difficult though against St. Olaf QB Richard Lang doesn’t make a lot of mistakes.

Prediction: Loras over St. Olaf 21-18

 

WEST

In my opinion (if it matters) this is the best game of this round. Two undefeated powerhouses that have been coached by the same two coaches (who have a ton of success) for a long long time. Surprisingly, this is the first time these two coaches have met, and only the 3rd time the two teams have gotten together in their entire history.

 

Ferrum vs. Austin

Austin is my new pick to win the title after Concordia (WI) went down last round. It’s hard to argue against them being the favorite to win it all with a complete team that is kicking on all cylinders. If there’s any team’s out there that can take them down then Ferrum is one of the few that have the talent on the roster combined with the experience leading it in coach bugeater11. Just like in the East, both teams come in undefeated and hot as they both won easily in the second round. Only one team will remain undefeated and continue down the title road. Once again, the two teams share similar offenses with both teams enjoying strong passing games while still producing from the running game. Expect a hard fought close game with high quality football as both teams tend to take good care of the football. My pick in this one will be whoever gets the ball last.

Prediction: Austin over Ferrum 27-25

 

This horrible idea of a thread is becoming a little less life consuming as the teams dwindle down. Good luck to the rest of the teams that are still alive as my Benedictine Eagles bit the bullet today. Guess I’ll have to live up to my promise of continuing this thread no matter what even though all I have left to do is wait for next season to begin…. And sorry if the thread is too long for some people to get into it. Boredom and time off from work coupled with enjoying looking into each game is making me to all of a sudden enjoy writing. Lol. I’ll be back tomorrow.


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NORTH

Cin_ben’s Picks: Whittier

Results: Whittier

Cin_ben’s North record: 4-3

 

Whittier vs. Whitworth

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 28-20 Whittier

Final Score: 52-20

Whitworth’s season comes to an end with the defense failing to make the trip to the Regional Finals game. After a great run in the playoffs, Whittier was just too much to handle for an overwhelmed Whitworth squad. This game wasn’t close in any way at all. A 21-0 score after the 1st quarter was just a sign of things to come as Whittier outgained Whitworth by over 250 yards, and were able to get into the end zone on 7 out of 14 possessions. Whittier’s QB Robert Delgado rebounded well from his last game as he went 37 for 53 at just under a 70% completion rate for 422 yards and 4 TD’s. He will be key for Whittier as they move forward.

 

SOUTH

Cin_ben’s Picks: Guilford

Results: Guilford

Cin_ben’s South record: 5-2

 

Union (NY) vs. Guilford

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 32-31 Guilford

Final Score: 20-13 Guilford

If you ever talk about a game that’s worth watching, this one is it. Guilford won this game with a lot of determination and a little bit of luck. Union (NY) really should have won this game, but untimely turnovers would be their Achilles heel here. Guilford opened up the game with a 10-0 lead halfway through the 2nd quarter after Union (NY) QB Oscar Johnston gave the ball away around midfield. Guilford DB Francisco White would return the INT down to the 5 yard line. Two plays later Guilford punched the ball in and the game was starting to look one sided. Give credit to Union (NY) credit for bouncing back. They would shut Guilford out in the 3rd and take the lead early in the 4th. The game looked over as Guilford went 3 and out twice as Guilford would keep eating up the clock. Guilford would take advantage of one of their last chances with 5 minutes left in the game. Driving 10 plays and 69 yards, and taking the clock down to around 2 minutes left, K Michael Seals would tie the game up on a 28 yard FG. Union (NY) would try to end the game in regulation as they moved the ball down the field on their next possession, but a fumble by RB David Ball would undo their drive at midfield. With one minute left and the ball on the opponent’s 45 yard line, Guilford would take a shot at winning it as well. Guilford moved the ball to the 35, and with 10 seconds left and a 4th and 13, Guilford would decide to punt the ball instead of kicking for the win. Guilford got the ball first in OT, and only needed two plays to get into the end zone. Union (NY) would only go four yards on four plays, and with that the upset was complete. Guilford moves on and is one win away from a shot at the title.

 

EAST

Cin_ben’s Picks: Loras

Results: Loras

Cin_ben’s East record: 5-2

 

Union (NY) vs. Guilford

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 21-18 Loras

Final Score: 31-13 Loras

Both teams would try to give the game away all day long as they combined for 13 TO’s. Overall, the two teams were evenly matched on the stat line. The main difference was that Loras waited till the 2nd half before they started to give the ball away. Loras would turn St. Olaf’s six 1st half TO’s into a 17-3 lead. This was just plain and simply an ugly game that doesn’t really have a whole lot of good things to be said about it. The only real positive looking forward for Loras is that at least their defense is playing at a high level.

 

WEST

Cin_ben’s Picks: Austin

Results: Austin

Cin_ben’s West record: 7-0

 

Ferrum vs. Austin

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 27-25 Austin

Final Score: 17-14 Austin

Unlike the East finals, the West would be a display of quality football on both offense and defense. Both teams seemed comfortable with keeping the score low, and playing to slower pace. After trailing 7-3 at the half, Austin would come out and score first on the only TO of the game. Austin DB Samuel Lawrence would pick off Ferrum QB Carl Johnson and return it 61 yards for a TD. Ferrum would answer on their next drive as they took the lead back on a 26 yard run by WR Charlie Norman. After a few 3 and outs by both teams, Austin would get the ball at their own 14. Down 14-10 with 10:29 left, Austin methodically move the ball down the field over 12 plays while eating up 86 yards and five and a half minutes. The drive ended in the end zone on a 10 yard pass from QB Adam Goode to WR William Armstrong. Ferrum would get one more chance, but couldn’t convert on a 4th and 10 from the opponent’s 43 yard line. Austin would run out the clock and are moving on to the National finals.

 

Four teams left with a combined record of 67-1, and only two of them were #1 seeds in their region.

 

7/5/2013 4:27 PM (edited)
National Semifinals

NORTH VS. SOUTH

Number one team in DIII vs. the under the radar team. This one could go either way

 

Whittier vs. Guilford

Don’t expect a lot of rushing in this game. Both teams pass all day long averaging a combined 727 yards just through the air. Both teams are supported by a defense that is probably more talented than their offenses. However, I don’t expect this game to be low scoring. It’s going to be hard for either team to stop the other from scoring. Whittier does rush the ball a little better than Guilford, but how much of an advantage is that going to give them? I expect that whichever QB can take care of the ball better will end up being the winning QB.

Keys to the game for Whittier: Be productive when running the ball. Protect the QB and don’t allow the opposing team to rattle the offense.

Keys to the game for Guilford: Don’t be too aggressive. Maintain the current team average of 3 INT’s per game.

Prediction: Guilford over Whittier 29-25

 

EAST VS. WEST

National Championship favorites are going against the Champions from two seasons ago. Austin is looking for back to back title game appearances. Whoever wins this game will end up being the favorite to win the whole thing.

 

Loras vs. Austin

This game is billed as a smashmouth game for the ages. Both teams score a ton of points and give up very few. I expect another close game in which the defenses will have the edge. Points will come at a premium. For Austin, they’ll have to take whatever the defense gives them as Loras is strong against the pass and the run. Austin QB Anthony Berry might end up being called upon to have a big game as he’ll most likely be needed to dig his team out of 2nd and long and 3rd and long. Loras will need a big game out of RB Jerry Adams. If he is not able to carry the load for Loras then QB William Harden will have to, but can he do it while protecting the ball. He currently has 36 TD’s to go with 15 INT’s on the season.

Keys to the game for Loras: Get the defense off the field on 3rd downs. Run the ball effectively while limiting the number of possessions for the opponents offense.

Keys to the game for Austin: Contain the running game and force 3rd and long. Get to the QB and force mistakes.

Prediction: Austin over Loras 21-18

 

Tomorrow we will know who will be fighting it out for the title. Good luck to all four teams.


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National Semifinals Review

Cin_ben’s Picks: Guilford, Austin

Results: Guilford, Loras

Cin_ben’s Overall record: 22-8

 

Whittier vs. Guilford

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 29-25 Guilford

Final Score: 20-10 Guilford

This was the only semifinal game that brought a little bit of excitement once the two teams got onto the field. Whittier was the better team in the first half while outgaining their opponent by over 50 yards, but couldn’t take advantage as they went into the half tied 10-10. The three TO’s coupled with a missed FG is what prevented them from holding an advantage at the half. Another missed opportunity for Whittier on their first possession in the second half on a missed FG from 42 yards out would allow Guilford to keep the game tied. After three quarters of fighting to keep the score close, Guilford would rise to the occasion. Guilford QB James Herbert would take over the game with a 10 yard TD pass to WR James Dodson just after completing 42 yard QB scramble. After another Guilford FG, Whittier wouldn’t cross the 50 yard line again until 47 seconds left in the game. Driving down to the 13 yard line, Whittier was threatening to make it a one possession game as QB Robert Delgado threw his 3rd INT of the game. Guilford moves on.

Loras vs. Austin

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 21-18 Austin

Final Score: 31-3 Loras

Defense won they day here as neither team was able to gain 300 yards. However, Loras had the defense that was able to dominate a little bit more. Austin was not able to get their running game going as they averaged only 2.3 yards per on 20 carries for a total of 45 yards rushing. This would prove to put too much pressure on QB Anthony Berry as he turned the ball over three times. Austin struggled so much on offense that they nearly were shut out while only getting on the board early in the 4th after the game was already out of reach. Loras didn’t fare a whole lot better on offense overall. However, they did get the ground and pound offense going as they had seven different players carry the rock 47 total times for a team average of 3.7 yards per carry. They’ll look to continue running all the way to another title game victory as they move on.

7/6/2013 4:00 PM (edited)
National Championship

Loras vs. Guilford

This will be the fifth trip to the title game for Loras as they look to win fourth National Championship in school history and second in the last three seasons. Guilford will be making their third trip to the title game as they try to win second National Championship in school history. Additionally, Guilford has gone 75 seasons since their last National Championship appearance in season 16. Loras will be the clear favorite as they’ve marched through the regular season undefeated and then went on to have an average margin of victory of 26 ppg in the playoffs. Guilford, while having a ton of success, found their road a little more difficult. They lost their Conference Championship game to Bluffton and managed to survive in the playoffs with and average margin of victory of 6 ppg with only one game being won by more than 7 points. The Loras defense will be pushed by Guilford’s pass happy offense. Guilford QB James Herbert will need a great game if he is going to lead his team to victory. He tends to be a little over aggressive while giving up 27 INT’s a game, and when you combine that with Loras and their 3.4 interceptions per game, it’s a recipe for disaster. Guilford’s defense will have to step up as well if they want to win. Giving up 3.6 yards per carry on the season will have to be a thing of the past if they plan on slowing down RB Jerry Adams and the Loras running game. Everything is in the favor of Loras, but don’t count Guilford out. They’ve proven they can withstand the pressure as they’ve been clutch in pressure situations while winning games late for the last few weeks. All they’ll need to do is keep the game close and they’ll have a chance. Should be a good one.

Keys to the game for Loras: Pressure the opposing QB into mistakes. Be patient on offense and the points will come.

Keys to the game for Guilford: Keep the game close. Get the defense off the field on 3rd down. Don’t let the opposition put together long time consuming drives that put points on the board.

Prediction: Loras over Guilford 28-14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


National Championship Review

Cin_ben’s Picks: Loras

Results: Loras

Cin_ben’s Final Overall record: 23-8

 

Loras vs. Guilford

Cin_ben’s Prediction: 28-14 Loras

Final Score: 34-24 Loras

The National Championship game was not short of drama as Loras comes away with another title for the trophy case in a back and forth game. This was an extremely close game in score and on the stat sheet. Neither team held more than a seven point lead until late in the third quarter. The game was tied up in every quarter except the fourth. Guilford opened up the scoring on their first possession on a 12 play 80 yard drive. This would be their only lead of the game. Loras would get a FG before opening the 2nd quarter with seven more points to take a 10-7 lead. Guilford would tie the game up halfway through the 2nd with a 38 yard FG from K Michael Seals, only to see Loras take their next possession and go 75 yards on 12 plays capping it off with a 1 yard TD pass from QB William Harden to TE Jeffrey Noel. Noel’s only catch of the game would prove to be a crucial one as the game would remain close throughout. Loras took their 17-10 lead into the half. The first two possessions for each team in the 2nd half would produce a total of -7 net yards. Guilford decided it didn’t need an offense to tie the game up again as DB Jeremy Mann would take a punt return back for 72 yards and 7 points. Loras would answer once again, just like a champion would have to. Loras Junior WR Robert Martinez would take the ensuing kickoff 80 yards to set up a 28 yard FG from K Stephen Perry. Martinez would be the difference maker again as he would close out the 3rd quarter with a punt return for 53 yards and 7 more points to give Loras their first double digit lead at 27-17. Guilford wouldn’t back down with their backs against the wall. With their first possession of the 4th they would drive 71 yards on 11 plays ending in a pass from QB James Herbert to RB David Benjamin for three yards, seven points, and a three point deficit. Two plays later, Loras WR Marc Smith would fumble the ball at midfield and give Guilford a great opportunity to steal this game away late. After an incomplete pass followed by a false start, Guilford would go for the game with a long pass down the right sideline. The only problem is that Loras DB Oscar Bradshaw would come down with the ball for an INT. This would prove to be a very costly TO as Bradshaw would return the ball 70 yards as he would go down at the Guilford 9 yard line. Three plays later Loras would complete the seven point swing and end up in the end zone to make it a 34-24 game with 5:31 left in the game. Guilford would get one more chance, but couldn’t convert on a 4th & 5 around midfield with 3:35 left. Loras would run the rest of the clock off for their second title in three seasons and fourth in school history. Congratulations godsize on his second National Championship and a perfect 19-0 season.



7/1/2013 9:57 PM
Playoff Preview is out. I'll have the 1st Round breakdown out shortly. Glad to see that at least a few people are looking at the thread. 
7/2/2013 3:03 AM
Very impressive write-up. Enjoyed reading it.
7/2/2013 11:47 AM
WOW! Awesome job cin. I hope you get bored more often lol.
Never seen anyone put that much effort, starting with myself when I used to write such threads. Enjoyed this very much, and can't wait to read the rest.

On another note, thanks for picking me for the first back-to-back national championships since Shenandoah in Season 72, but I'm not that confident we can repeat, unless the defense takes it up a notch. I acknowledge we probably have the most dangerous passing attack on paper with those 2 STL Rs Sr and the rest, but defense has been very inconsistent this season. 4 seasons back, this was my worst recruiting class in the past 7 seasons anyway, so my expectations weren't that high to be honest.

I would also like to share my picks, and you can find them here:
NORTH: Benedictine beats Whitworth to win the bracket
SOUTH: Union (NY) beats Guilford to win the bracket
EAST: Gettysburg beats Loras to win the bracket
WEST: Austin beats Ferrum to win the bracket

Final Four: Union (NY) beats Benedictine and Austin beats Gettysburg
National Championship: Austin beats Union (NY)
7/2/2013 2:52 PM
Oh come on, no love for Defiance. I can pull off the upset over the 6 seed Austin, can't I? I upset the reigning national champ at his place this year! I'm not sure why Austin didn't schedule a little tougher to get a better seed, but I don't think it really matters. Here goes nothing...
7/2/2013 8:08 PM
First round review is out. I'll be posting the Second round match ups later tonight.

elkhour, I had to pick you to win after the top secret drug deal that I get the CC and you get the NC. lol. That really sounds like a bad deal for me.

7/2/2013 10:27 PM
Just posted the second round breakdowns for everyone's viewing pleasure...... Enjoy!! lol
7/3/2013 2:33 AM
Wow ummm Austin came to play. Better luck next year ha.
7/3/2013 7:23 PM
Second round review is out. Regional final will be out shortly.
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