Posted by bullfrog333 on 7/5/2013 5:46:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jsmetz48 on 7/5/2013 5:08:00 PM (view original):Years ago I did a "study" and am confident the 20% base advantage I mentioned above is very close to being accurate. It is obviously possible to win a battle vs an Elite. But if you feel differently please come to the Pac-12 in Camp ;)
Someone may have done some real research on this that I don't know about, but my experience has been that elites do not have a big advantage over other BCS schools. I have posted this before. I was at Louisville and beat OHST out for an STL DB. If I remember correctly, we both spent over 100K, it was for sure over 80k each.. The recruit was of approximately equal distance from both of us. The recruit was in Cincinatti area which is about 100 miles from OHST and from Louisville. The other coach posted how much he had spent and it was under $500 less than I had spent. I moved ahead in that battle by spending one campus visit and then luckily signed the guy on the overnight cycle. I had offered the recruit a sophmore start and no playing time. I have no way of knowing what OHST had offered from a playing time/start standpoint so there are some unknown variables there. The point is, I had to have been barely ahead of him based on the fact I moved ahead by spending only one campus visit. The dollar amounts were within $500 assuming OHST was honest in his post about how much he had spent. He is a well respected coach and I have no reason to believe he made it up.
I believe the elite advantage is overblown and a lot of it is in our heads. Many coaches back off battles with elites giving them more money for the battles they do have. That makes them win a disproportionate percentage of the time which fuels the theory that they have a large advantage.
I do think they have a small advantage but I believe it is negligible. I had just won a BCS Bowl with Louisville so I acknowledge that I might have been categorized in the system as some kind of an "almost elite" status, meaning that I may have had a smaller disadvantage than someone who, say, had gone 9-5 the season before and played in a third or fourth tier bowl.
Anyway, I conclude by saying that they do have an advantage. However, that advantage comes from us believing we can't beat them so many of us choose not to battle. That allows them to win some battles on the cheap which gives them more money for the battles they do have. I think it is more of a psychological advantage than a real advantage.
Even if they have real advantage, I have zero doubt that we increase that advantage with our belief that we can't beat them.
I imagine bullfrog is right on, that it's about 20%, so to throw an arbitrary number value on it, it's as if BCS teams get a starting point 100, Elites get a starting point of 120.
My understanding though is that prestige is a flexible value. A BCS team like jsmetz's Louisville team can climb up to 120 with the right success, but can also drop back down. Teams can even drop lower than the resting point if they are horrible. With USC, I went up against a brand new coach at Arizona, which SimAI had at the bottom of the barrel (ranked 80+). I don't remember the numbers, but he spent WAAAAY more than I did (like $100k vs $35k?) and didn't even show up as being considered despite being at a distance advantage.
jsmetz, I'd be very interested to know if the Louisville/Ohio State battle was in Season 52 or if it was 53? I think that could tell alot.