All Forums > Steals
6/17/2013 5:07 PM
There's a minimum number of steals - or attempts - a player has to make before his RL stats matter (just like there are minimum AB requirements; a modern AL SP batting .300 with only 20 ABs is not a .300 hitter).  I think the number was 8, but I'm not sure; also, I don't recall if that was Steals or Attempts.  Naturally, I'm drafting a team where a potential pinch-runner had RL stats of 7 steals in 8 attempts.  Does anyone recall the minimums?
6/17/2013 5:20 PM
I don't have proof of this, but I suspect the total number of RL steals is irrelevant.  I imagine whether the runner runs or not is based on some sort of formula using attempts and total opportunities ("opportunities" being defined -- possibly -- as at-bats, or PA, or singles + walks, I don't know for sure).  For example, a player who was 7 for 8 stealing but had only 50 RL at-bats would be a "stealer."  I remember using a player who was something like 17 for 22 stealing RL, but he had a ton of RL at-bats and I couldn't get him to steal even with a 5 base stealing setting.

I wonder if Admin would just tell you if you sent a ticket and asked?
6/17/2013 5:34 PM
Maybe what I'm 'remembering' was just forum conjecture.  The tie-in with ABs didn't occur to me at first, as I mostly look at this when I'm putting together my bench (unless I'm building a steals team, of course) - and in that case, all the candidates are low-ABs so the AB connection wasn't a factor.  Still, I think there would have to be some minimum, don't you?  Someone who's three-for-three really isn't a base stealer, even with 50 ABs.
6/17/2013 6:29 PM
If you go by rates, 3-3 in 50 AB is actually pretty good -- extrapolates to 30-30 in 500 AB.  Look at 2003 Jose Morban, 8-8 in 77 PA/71 AB.  His performance history shows him averaging 9-10 in 23 seasons.
6/19/2013 3:01 AM
I've had Morban steal over 20, purely as a pinch-runner.  But that's my original question: he had eight steals in eight attempts, eight being the magic number - but is it eight steals or eight attempts?
6/19/2013 12:14 PM
Sorry, I misunderstood the original question. I don't have an answer for you, but looking at some performance histories of players with 3-5 RL SB (and of course very few RL PA) you'll see that those players will steal in the SIM.
6/19/2013 12:20 PM
I just found 1939 Stan Benjamin in the draft center -- RL 56 PA and 1 SB.  In 12 seasons in the SIM, he's averaged 2 SB a season (and his best season shows him with 8 SB).

I really do suspect it has to do completely with rates (SB per opportunity) and that the raw SB numbers do not matter at all except in relation to the opportunities.
6/28/2013 12:23 PM

"Everything is ratio based.  8 steal attempts in 150 times on base (1B/2B) versus 8 steal attempts in 23 times on base, for instance, are two very different things.

So, we use an attempt frequency factored along with many other things -- score, situation, baserunners, pitcher, catcher, inning. There is no hard cutoff."
6/28/2013 1:02 PM
CS - thanks so much!  That definitely answers my question, there is no cutoff (as there is with pitcher's batting).
6/29/2013 2:49 AM
Posted by pinotfan on 6/17/2013 5:07:00 PM (view original):
There's a minimum number of steals - or attempts - a player has to make before his RL stats matter (just like there are minimum AB requirements; a modern AL SP batting .300 with only 20 ABs is not a .300 hitter).  I think the number was 8, but I'm not sure; also, I don't recall if that was Steals or Attempts.  Naturally, I'm drafting a team where a potential pinch-runner had RL stats of 7 steals in 8 attempts.  Does anyone recall the minimums?
it is SB/100 SBOs that is the relevant stat.
12/5/2013 4:25 PM

I recently completed a season using 2003 Barry Bonds.  In real life he went 7-for-7 stealing.  For me, he went 2-for-6.  The breakdown vs. catcher arm rating:

vs. A+ -- 1-for-2
vs. D -- 1-for-4

Granted, it's an extremely small sample size.  And I can accept the 1-for-2 vs. A+ arms.  But if steals are indeed ratio based (as Admin told me earlier), how can 100% Bonds have a 25% success rate against D arms?  According to the draft center, D armed catchers have success rates between 21-24%.
12/5/2013 11:25 PM (edited)
Crazy: You answered your own question. " Granted, it's an extremely small sample size. "  4 is so small it's not worth attempting to draw even a hypothesis from.
12/5/2013 11:36 PM
I don't know, I just did a search in the draft center of players with 500 or more PA, 5 to 10 SB, and a 100% success rate.  Looking at their performance histories, these players did not fare too well stealing bases in the sim.  2003 Miguel Tejeda, for example -- 10/10 real life -- went 11/22 one season.  1994 Tony Gwynn -- 5/5 real life -- averages 0/1 over 37 OL seasons.  I looked at about two dozen players, and most didn't steal at all, but the ones who did run a bit were not good at it.
12/7/2013 1:40 AM
Doesn't the catcher's arm figure into whether the runner even attempts a steal?
Plus, there must be some situational factors, I would think (but who knows) that affect if the runner attempts a steal.
Plus, the catcher's effect would, one would assume, also be affected by some aspect of the pitcher's rating, so that a poor catcher's arm is
enhanced by a pitcher with a high hold rating.
But this is just conjecture on my part.
I'm just wondering this out loud for comment.
In a league I recently finished my catcher had a 60% caught stealing rate.
The among the starters, at the upper end, Greg Maddux had a 75% caught stealing rate, and at the lower end, Sandy Koufax had a 45% caught stealing rate.
So, it seems the catcher's effectiveness also depends on who is pitching.
Yes? No?
12/7/2013 3:58 AM
Not 100% on this, but I don't think there is a hold rating for pitchers.  If that is correct, I'm not sure why WIS would even have a stat for steals against a pitcher.  I guess they just copy from RL MLB stats kept for the most part.
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All Forums > Steals

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