All Forums > DH \$52 Division Draft Analysis / League Prediction
5/20/2013 10:30 PM

Ok I spent the last couple of hours running the numbers on this, so I think it warrants its own thread in the forum.

The question is: Who “won” the Dh\$52 division draft? The initial answer is: “it depends on who you ask”. I’ll add my numbers below and maybe some of us would like to discuss how it all looks going into the league. Also I’ll be sure to re-visit this after the season is complete. And this would be a great place if anyone would care to share their predictions.

BACKGROUND

Before we declare a “winner” let’s first look at the logic behind the draft and what happens in a perfect vacuum with all things being equal.

The top four teams from the previous season get to draft the teams that will be in their divisions. Of course these four teams are not equal and things can change dramatically from one season to the next, but in theory the top team gets pick #1, the 2nd best team gets pick#2 and so on.

Also in a perfect world the strength of the other 20 teams is known prior to the draft. So the draft starts with the 20th best available  (or the presumed worst team in the league, 24th overall) getting selected to be in the best teams division. The 2nd best team then selects the 19th best available; the 3rd best selects the 18th best; the 4th best selects the 17th and then the 16th best and the draft proceeds in serpentine order until the only team left is the best team left (5th overall if drafters are top-4) which is left over and put in the 4th best team’s division.

So in the end (in theory) the best team overall (again the team with the best record from the previous season) is in a division with teams ranked 1, 8, 9, 16, 17, and 24 overall, this team is placed in the Eastern Conference in the Atlantic Division, teams 2 and 3 and their draft picks are placed in the West and finally team 4 is placed in the Eastern Conference Central Division, a division that would include teams 4, 5, 12, 13, 20, and 21. Every division at the end would have an average team ranking of 12.5.

5/20/2013 10:31 PM

EXPECTED RESULTS

So, what do we expect to see from a division draft in practice?

NOTE at this point switch your thinking to golf scores where the lower the number the better.

The teams are ranked from 1-20, with 1 being the worst team, i.e., the team you want in your division. If there is universal agreement on the 20 teams then team #1 would end up with teams ranked 1, 8, 9, 16, 17 for an average of 10.2. Team #2 would have 2, 7, 10, 15, 18 for an average of 10.4. Here is what each division should look like in terms of average ranking if there is universal agreement on the rankings:

Team #1: 10.2
Team#2:  10.4
Team#3:  10.6
Team#4:  10.8

The average of all teams is 10.5, but team #1 should have an ave of 10.2 and team #4 should have an ave of 10.8.

OK, now to answer the question of who won the division draft.

First I did a composite average of all the teams, remember the scores in theory should be:

Tar 10.2
Logain 10.4
Tricky 10.6
Dh 10.8

5/20/2013 10:33 PM (edited)

RESULTS

For the composite the scores are:

Tar 10.3
Logain 10.4
Tricky 11.25
Dh 10.05

So with the “group think” composite scores Tar did slightly worse than expected (VERY slightly since his ave was still below what the next slot should have been); Logain did exactly as expected; Tricky failed epically, and DH drafted an easier division than even the #1 pick should have gotten.

Here are the results using each individual’s own draft board:

(Division average based on the individual board and +/- from expectation)

Tar’s board:
Tar 9.4 (-.8)
DH 10.4 (.-4)
Logain 10.4 (0)
Tricky 11.8 (+1.2)

Logains board:
Logain 8.0 (-2.4)
Dh 9.6 (-1.2)
Tar 11.4 (+1.2)
Tricky 13 (+2.4)

Tricky’s board:
Tricky 7.0 (-3.6)
Dh 10.4 (-.4)
Tar 10.6 (+.4)
Logain 14 (+3.6)

Dh’s board:
Logain 9.2 (-1.2)
Dh 9.8 (-1.0)
Tar 9.8 (+.4)
Tricky 13 (+2.6)

So if you ask Tar: he’d say he had the best draft, Dh had a good draft, Logain did exactly as expected and Tricky screwed up.

If you ask Logain: he’d say that his draft was amazing, that Dh’s was really strong, that tar made some mistakes, and that tricky REALLY screwed up.

If you ask tricky: he’s say that he is a pure genius that dominated the draft, that Dh did a little better than expected, that tar did a little worse, and that Logain REALLY screwed up.

If you ask Dh: both  he and Logain had strong drafts, tar was slightly below what was expected and Tricky REALLY screwed up.

So in general it looks like the majority opinion is that dh did the best job and that tar and logain did fine, but tricky created a nightmare division.

5/20/2013 10:34 PM (edited)

Where are the top teams?

Even with the outliers is we use the composite board then it looks like the top teams got spread out pretty evenly as did the bad one.

Each division has one of the top-4 composite teams, each division has one of the next best 4 composite teams; each division has one of the bottom-4 composite teams and each division has two of the teams from the middle.

Another thing you can look at is how did each guys consider the top teams to be distributed. If you assume that all four teams drafting will make the playoffs and that each person broke down their board as:

Teams ranked 17-20: elite
Teams ranked 13-16: likely playoffs

Then here is how each guy sees the divisions (again assume all 4 guys are in the elite category themselves):

Tar:

Tar: 0 elite; 2 playoff
Logain: 1 elite; 1 playoff
Tricky: 2 elite; 0 playoff
Dh: 1 elite; 1 playoff

Logain:

Tar: 1 elite, 2 playoffs
Logain: 1 elite, 0 playoffs
Tricky: 1 elite, 2 playoffs
Dh: 1 elite, 0 playoffs

Tricky:

Tar: 0 elite, 2 playoffs
Logain: 3 elite, 0 playoffs
Tricky: 0 elite, 1 playoffs
Dh: 1 elite, 1 playoffs

DH:

Tar: 1 elite, 1 playoffs
Logain: 1 elite, 1 playoffs
Tricky: 1 elite, 2 playoffs
Dh: 1 elite, 0 playoffs

5/20/2013 10:35 PM (edited)

DH Star System

Finally we can use the DH star-system to look at the division and conferences.

Note that DH gave both tar and himself a 4-star rating and both Logain and tricky a 2-star rating.

So using the DH system the both the East and the West have 37 total stars

Atlantic 18 stars: 2 fours, 3 three’s, 1 one
Central 19 stars: 1 five, 2 fours, 1 three, 1 two, 1 one

Midwest 17 stars: 2 fours, 2 threes, 1 two, 1 one
Pacific 20 stars: 1 five, 2 fours, 1 three, 2 two’s

5/21/2013 9:49 AM (edited)

To be fair Logain explained his ranking in the other forum and utilized the strengths of his own team when ranking who he wanted in division, so his are not a pure power ranking per se.

Also something I hope DH sees and responds to:

When it was you turn to make the 8th and 9th selection in the draft there were two teams left from the DH Star system with a 3-star ranking: mine and ash’s. With the 8th pick you selected me but with the 9th pick you skipped over ash and took badja. Now I know your draft board was followed, so the real question is why did you rank the 4-star badja team higher than the 3-star ash team on your board?

5/21/2013 3:07 AM (edited)

Who made the first / biggest  mistakes of the draft?

Well if you look at the composite board then the answer would be dh when he took me in the 3rd round since the composite average has me as a playoff team.

Also most would agree that tricky REALLY dropped the ball by ranking Vance so early, the guy that has won two of the last three titles here and looks as strong as ever, you ended up with him, good luck with that and thanks for putting Vance in the other conference from me.

Let’s look at this from the perspective of each guy’s individual board:

DH: tricky’s selection of eleibowitz in the 3rd round, the first 4-star team to come off the board and a team Dh ranked 16th on his board. Also tricky’s selection of tang in the first round, a team Dh ranked 10th on his board.

Tricky: Logain’s selection of seapilots in the 2nd round, a team tricky considers borderline playoffs at number 12 on his board. Also Logain’s selection of thomcat in the 3rd, a team tricky had in the elite 18th position on his board.

Logain: Tar’s selection of 98average in the 3rd, a team logain gave a number 17 ranking to, which is considered “elite” from the previous post.  Also tricky’s aforementioned selection of eleibowitz in the 3rd, a team Logain ranked 15th.

Tar: Dh’s selection of me in the 3rd, a team Tar gave the number 16 ranking to. Also tricky’s selection of theyard in the 4th, a team tar ranked 17 (again on the elite level).

IMO Dh has drafted a division that will be a three-horse race between sly, dh and me. My first team here I got real lucky and won my division, my second team was very mediocre, vance knew it and I didn’t and I went 40-42. My last team was a disaster that still went 42-40 and just made the playoffs, but in retrospect it really was not a well-designed team, not by the standards of this league anyways.

Oh, but DH, my team this time has 50+ win season written all over it man, great pf to draw foul ratio, super high efg, above average rebounding with a little extra Rodman advantage, three 90D guys that eat almost ½ my minutes and only a single weak defender who is worth the tradeoff when you look at what else he does.

I could be wrong, and it’s obviously hard to be unbiased about a team, but things REALLY fit together for this squad in a tight little package, in my six completed draft leagues I’ve had 5 playoff teams and made the finals twice, and this is by FAR the best team I’ve ever constructed, at least that is what the data and advanced stats are telling me.

But hey, I’ll enjoy taking 98’s GC, and trying to take down you and sly, should be a fun battle and I’m SURE tar will be waiting for me somewhere in the playoffs if I get there.

5/26/2013 4:24 PM (edited)
League Predictions

East

Projected Playoff Teams

1.       Tar

2.       Sly

3.       Ash

4.       DH

5.       Natenoy

6.       Felonius

Playoff Contenders

98 avergae

Longshot

Toast

Katernberg
Banditone
Iccoachb

West

1.       Eleibowitz

2.       Mikee1

3.       Vancem

4.       Theyard2

5.       Tanguma44

6.       Thomcat

Playoff Contenders

Tricky 24

Logain

Longshots

Coachcroft

Seapilots

Steelers824

Can’t make a shot

Maglor1

5/20/2013 10:40 PM
The major flaw with this analysis is I think you just spent more time on the rankings than any of us besides dh (due to his evals duty). Interesting stuff though.
5/21/2013 1:47 AM
nate buddy you have way to much extra time on your hands my friend. Keep my team name in mind. You need to be spending more time on your odl playoff team and less time on crazy analysis like this. But after it is complete let's see how closely your work matches up with the reality of what happened.
5/21/2013 3:10 AM
Vance it was a travel day in the ODL as you know. Kobe is just getting started, and hopefully you will be there waiting for him when he arrives at the finals.
5/21/2013 6:19 AM
fun fact:  I've used Manu Ginobili in two theme leagues, one of them the funk 52.

Guess how I did in both of them?

;)

5/21/2013 7:27 AM
Gino was going to be my 2nd rounder if there.  Amazing stats for that guy.
5/21/2013 10:25 AM
I'm not too sorry that I ripped Mullin away from ash before he could use him for Manu's backup. The problem with taking Manu where he should go in the second round is that you really need to address his back up player in round 4 to be safe at all in who you will get. I love Manu too.
5/21/2013 4:09 PM
I planned on platooning a pair of backups for manu.  I got one guy I wanted.  The other was, in fact, Mullin... so you're a bastard, vance.
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