All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > SimLeague Basketball > Just a thought on defense
4/1/2013 11:29 PM (edited)
As some here know I tend build strong defensive teams that rarely make it through the playoffs! 

One common theme of these teams is a terrible balance of home and away wins.  Often the 2 records are reversed (great at home, terrible on the road).

I recently gave up an ungodly fg% on the road in 2 consecutive games despite having all defensive players rated over 90.

Which made me wonder....
Does defense incur a penalty on the road in the sim?!!!

Something to keep an eye out for.  It would explain a lot and totally change my draft strategy.  It would strongly support the  strategy of gaining homecourt with great offensive/mediocre defensive teams and then cruising in the playoffs.
4/1/2013 4:30 PM
NOTHING in the current SIM has any rhyme or reason because the variable is set at a ridiculously high number.  That's why not only FG%, but rebounds, TOs, PFs, and everything else seems to greatly fluctuate randomly.  One simple fix that would address about 95% of the complaints owners have about the NBA SIM, but WIS has refused to make it for years now, and I'm not optimistic they ever will.
4/1/2013 4:30 PM
as far as I can tell, the only home court advantage/disadvantage lies within the shooting struggle.  Teams I build that are focused on dominating the shooting struggle fare worse on the road than those I focus more on the possession battle... was one major reason I favored the possession battle over the shooting struggle for the longest time (I've just been obsessed with efg% lately).
4/1/2013 4:53 PM
fwiw my thoroughly mediocre (22-22) funk 52 team with insane asg%s but middling efg has a starting 5 rotation of 90, 90, 80, 80, 62 with a combined 10.4 block points and is 14-8 at home and 8-14 on the road but who knows what that means (and dont get me started on their TO/STL differentials)?
4/2/2013 9:47 AM
That's basically what I'm talking about felon. 
4/2/2013 10:34 AM
Posted by all3 on 4/1/2013 4:30:00 PM (view original):
NOTHING in the current SIM has any rhyme or reason because the variable is set at a ridiculously high number.  That's why not only FG%, but rebounds, TOs, PFs, and everything else seems to greatly fluctuate randomly.  One simple fix that would address about 95% of the complaints owners have about the NBA SIM, but WIS has refused to make it for years now, and I'm not optimistic they ever will.
While there is some randomness from game to game, saying there's no rhyme or reason is flat out wrong.
4/2/2013 10:45 AM
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/2/2013 10:34:00 AM (view original):
Posted by all3 on 4/1/2013 4:30:00 PM (view original):
NOTHING in the current SIM has any rhyme or reason because the variable is set at a ridiculously high number.  That's why not only FG%, but rebounds, TOs, PFs, and everything else seems to greatly fluctuate randomly.  One simple fix that would address about 95% of the complaints owners have about the NBA SIM, but WIS has refused to make it for years now, and I'm not optimistic they ever will.
While there is some randomness from game to game, saying there's no rhyme or reason is flat out wrong.
I think you're wrong.  So do the many owners who got so fed-up with the crazy randomness that they left the site.  You're going to believe what you believe, but you're not going to convince us we're not right.
4/2/2013 11:13 AM
You're both right!  There are right and wrong ways to build a team here and some have proven it can be done on a consistent basis.  BUT even these owners will tell you that they build teams a certain way to deal with the imperfections of the sim.
4/2/2013 4:15 PM
Posted by all3 on 4/2/2013 10:45:00 AM (view original):
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/2/2013 10:34:00 AM (view original):
Posted by all3 on 4/1/2013 4:30:00 PM (view original):
NOTHING in the current SIM has any rhyme or reason because the variable is set at a ridiculously high number.  That's why not only FG%, but rebounds, TOs, PFs, and everything else seems to greatly fluctuate randomly.  One simple fix that would address about 95% of the complaints owners have about the NBA SIM, but WIS has refused to make it for years now, and I'm not optimistic they ever will.
While there is some randomness from game to game, saying there's no rhyme or reason is flat out wrong.
I think you're wrong.  So do the many owners who got so fed-up with the crazy randomness that they left the site.  You're going to believe what you believe, but you're not going to convince us we're not right.
If he's wrong, how come he (and other successful owners) find a way to win consistently?  I understand the frustrations with the sim, I really do, but I really grow tired of hearing the broken record that plays continuously from your virtual mouth when it comes to this stuff.  You're wrong and refuse to try and fix the real problem: your team building skills.  You'd rather just blame the sim for your lack of success... not unlike a notorious wis member that "leaves" and pops back up when he's spoken about.  I hesitate to even say his name because I SWEAR he's like Beetlejuice! (Beetlejuice! Beetlejuice!)
4/4/2013 11:41 PM (edited)
the question is how much random is too much - we know the engine is not completely random - good strategies tend to differentiate over extended sample size, the guys who know what they're doing tend to win 

the problem is how widely randomness can impact any single game (with abberant effects) and that according to the architect/administrator of the engine the sample size required to normalize those effects is larger than a 7 game series (and possibly a 82 game season) 

the underlying philosophy of treating the engine as a statistical simulation machine is not only countervailed by the site's product marketing (the whole 'whatif' concept) but is also undermined by its presentation - by which I mean we get to see the effects 1 game at a time every 12 hours which only underlines the crazy

one thought - what if they were to run each game 10 times, average the results and generate the PbP after the fact (since the PbP tends to be nonsensical anyway)
4/3/2013 1:01 PM
Felonius, simming each game an odd number of times -such as 5- and taking the median result would reduce the game to game variance.
4/3/2013 1:12 PM
and then the question is how much longer would that make the simulation sessions
4/4/2013 7:36 PM
Only been playing since December so can't comment on what the sim was like before. But after about 5-6 teams, the sim does make sense to me. Game to game variance is part of what makes sports great. Have you ever watched an NBA game and known what was going to happen? The cream definitely rises to the top. The sim may have weaknesses but I have never seen a champion and been shocked. All teams that complain about their lack of success, all it takes is one look at their roster and an obvious flaw emerges. A challenge would be:  Post a team's total and advanced stats that one feels underachieved. Guarantee there was a good reason for it. Of course game to game variances occur but that's that point of playing 82 games!
4/4/2013 9:20 PM (edited)
dont start with 'in real life' - the sim as a game is built in the opposite direction (stats are not results in the sim they are base expectations you pay for) and as such competition is undermined by that kind of thinking - game to game variation in real life is subject to a myriad of uncontrollable factors and we already have little or no control that makes any difference as coaches (try doubling someone if you're wondering what I'm talking about) - that something could happen in real iife (where stats come after the fact and merely paint the picture of what has happened) does nothing for us as owners competing against each other within the parameters set by the salary cap and supposed weighting of those stats we have paid for

think of playing chess
think of playing chess with die that somehow factor in your results such that your moves are sometimes shifted from your intention
think of playing chess with so many die that your knight sometimes can only move like a pawn but sometimes moves like a queen (and you only find out about it after all the moves in the game have been made and you've reached mate)

as a game too much random (some is required to grease the wheels of the engine) screws up competitive balance and turns chess into crap(s)

conversely consider the marketing of the game -what would happen if elgin baylor faced off with sydney moncreif? who the hell knows? we just ran some stat simulations where abberant behaviors made their stat outcomes meaningless in sampling sizes under 1000 games, please pay us $10
4/4/2013 9:13 PM
the best team does not always win in a 7-game series in the sim.
it usually does, but not always.

The difference between the sim & real life when it comes to not knowing the outcome, jkaye, is that in real life, stats are determined by what happens on the court.  The sim is supposed to be determined by the stats.  You pay for a guy that shoots 60% from the field... you expect him to shoot 60% from the field... not 80% one game, 40% the next, 90%, 30%, 50%, 70%, 60%, 10%, 100% (etc).

The trick is (and always has been as far as I can tell) not to build teams with an expectancy of results but to build teams to minimize the chance of a bad dice roll beating you.

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