All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > Theme Leagues > Team D v. Team efg% Debate
3/27/2013 5:50 PM
thanks for the input ash, you put a lot of good stuff in there.
3/27/2013 6:49 PM
Posted by logain on 3/27/2013 7:34:00 AM (view original):
But if a player loses 20 4 pt plays.. that would be 20 less makes and 20 less attempts. Say a player was 100/250.. 40% on 3s. But 20 of those were 4 pt plays thst have now been reduced.. the player would then be 80/230 for 34.8%. Now this is probably an extreme example.. but 4 pt plays were very prevalent i think.
true.  This merits consideration.

np nate. good discussion

3/27/2013 7:35 PM
55% is still greater than 51.5%.

For me it boils down to Nash vs. Payton really.  Could Nash/Peja outscore Payton/Bryant?!  I highly doubt it.  But sadly the sim sees things differently than my own eyes;)

Now there was a time long ago in the sim when squad of all 90+ D players was very tough to beat.  Kobe and Russell and Truth were highly touted players.  I would really like to see some of the old defensive glory brought back, but I doubt it will happen.
3/27/2013 7:36 PM
Excellent thread and great input from all!
3/27/2013 7:44 PM
Posted by badja on 3/27/2013 7:35:00 PM (view original):
55% is still greater than 51.5%.

For me it boils down to Nash vs. Payton really.  Could Nash/Peja outscore Payton/Bryant?!  I highly doubt it.  But sadly the sim sees things differently than my own eyes;)

Now there was a time long ago in the sim when squad of all 90+ D players was very tough to beat.  Kobe and Russell and Truth were highly touted players.  I would really like to see some of the old defensive glory brought back, but I doubt it will happen.
Agreed with everything said here. 
3/27/2013 7:53 PM
dh, this press thing really has me thinking, when I tried it in my 2nd or 3rd league I ever played back last July or so my opponents crushed me on efg% and I realized it was NOT something to EVER try again. But I look at our current dh52 league and I think the sim may have actually changed, especially when playing a press at home with a solid D and a few guys with a high stl% rating.  It's only a few games, but MJ has 18 steals over my last three games running the press and only 9 fouls, I also had a 17 block game mixed in there as well, so perhaps the sim is giving a bump to blk% in the press, this whole damn thing may have changed (again for you oldtimers) and we are just starting to see the impact.
3/27/2013 8:01 PM

Hi guy's, I've been busy and haven't had a chance to read all the post yet. My ceredentials - 30+ years as a career scientist & director in the BioTech Industry. I ate stat's for breakfast, lunch, dinner and a mid-nite snack. I count 9 FDA approved drugs. One thing I'm sure of is that stat's are a slippery road. I am consided pretty good at using stat's to analyze trends & develop models. Ok, enough of that. What I see here is a desire to use isolated stat's as determinants. I'll have to consider the correlations presented here. My intial impression is that I see a bunch of #'s of limited value. The correlations seem weak and I see questions as to their usefulness. But at the same time I do see some trends developing. I need some time to think about whats presented here. I do stand behind the model that 1) defense creates rebounds, 2) you need to win the rebound battle for the extra boards, 3) you need sufficient assist to convert the extra possessions, and (4) that this will result in a bump in FG%. I do most of my trend modeling from the differential (you vs opponents) stat's during the a league. What I do to the average opponent I think is more valuable, it how I gauge my defenses effectiveness. I do have an unusual case where I have a strong defense in a league with no defense, this makes for an informative case study. Let me get the league #....

3/27/2013 8:09 PM
The league is NBA43584. As I said this is an isolated case where the effect of defense can be seen, mainly because the opponent offer so little defense to blur the picture. Take a look at the differential stat line & the "vs opponent" team rankings. The results are startling...
3/27/2013 8:14 PM
I'm off to review all these post and consider whats been presented here. Whenever two diametericly opposed group clash over stats the answer without fail, lay's somewhere the middle....
3/27/2013 8:36 PM (edited)
I am consided pretty good at using stat's to analyze trends & develop models.  (snip)  I do stand behind the model that...

Who considers you pretty good?  Can't be anyone here... you spew out copious amounts of weak crap to a bunch of guys that have WAAAAY more experience than you.  i.e. You're not bringing anything new to the table and you're offending people by assuming they don't know what they are talking about and haven't tried the things you bring up.  Anyway, stand by your hypothesis all you like, smokey, but here's some other stats for you to digest:

Record
9218-4162 (0.689)
Playoff Appearances
132
Finals Appearances
54
Championships
41
I kinda have a little experience to back up my hypotheses... in fact, I've collected enough data over said amount of time to change those hypotheses to theories (and some of those theories to proven facts). 
"I do most of my trend modeling from the differential (you vs opponents) stat's during the a league."

I find that you now are speaking about differentials as being what you pay attention to when you clearly were speaking in a completely different direction earlier (paraphrased:  you can't average more than 35 assists per game so you shouldn't go higher than that.  You can't get more than 55 rebounds per game, so you shouldn't worry about more).  Nice change of story.

Oh... and one other thing:
"One thing I'm sure of is that stat's are a slippery road."

Hi.  This is a simulation engine that uses stats (no apostrophe) to determine results.


I'll see your 30 years of science and raise you 5 years of (winning) experience in the subject at hand.  I won't tell you how to make drugs since I clearly have no knowledge about the subject.  You shouldn't tell people how to make teams for the same reason.


edit:  A prog league as your example?  Really?!  And one from the 70s?  Wow.  I'm done wasting time responding to you.

3/27/2013 9:06 PM
Posted by natenoy on 3/27/2013 7:53:00 PM (view original):
dh, this press thing really has me thinking, when I tried it in my 2nd or 3rd league I ever played back last July or so my opponents crushed me on efg% and I realized it was NOT something to EVER try again. But I look at our current dh52 league and I think the sim may have actually changed, especially when playing a press at home with a solid D and a few guys with a high stl% rating.  It's only a few games, but MJ has 18 steals over my last three games running the press and only 9 fouls, I also had a 17 block game mixed in there as well, so perhaps the sim is giving a bump to blk% in the press, this whole damn thing may have changed (again for you oldtimers) and we are just starting to see the impact.
yup....tonight will be a great test for that too...your tough press d vs my league leading offense....i might shoot 60% but ive already lost games this year doing that

and if its looking like press can be a legit option now(i cant stress enough how little it used to matter...i used to murder teams that tried to press my high powered offenses) i might have to give it a try in the ppl when jordan comes back...he and stockton could be a deadly combo

3/28/2013 12:08 AM
my 52 team is pressing for the foreseeable future starting tonight - we'll see if that gets them out of the .500 duldrums (it probably will just not in the right direction)
3/28/2013 7:41 AM
Mixed results from the press experiment last night in the dh52mill league, dh lit me up behind 59 points on 24 for 40 shooting from his Howard/STAT combo. But felonius had 17 blocks and 16 steals in taking down the division leading banditone team. Neither opponent even hit thier season ave for fg% and our fouls had a very slight uptick. The sample size is pretty small still, but there are signs that WIS may have reduced the penalties previously associated with running the press. I guess the question is, who will be the team's to test the theory? And we may never really know if the environment has changed, but if we see teams running the press performing well then we are likely on the cusp of a new trend here, at least by some people. Guess I'd rather be one of the guys that either says "yep, that was a mistake" OR "sure glad I got in on that" instead of the guy that says "wonder what would have happen if I gave that a try?"
3/28/2013 10:31 AM
lol - calm down ash
3/28/2013 6:11 PM
I'm calm.  Calm like the sea.  Eye of the storm.
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All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > Theme Leagues > Team D v. Team efg% Debate

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