1/25/2013 5:34 PM
I've got a guy who looks like a really strong prospect, but I'm not sure whether he'll be more valuable as a starter, or as one of those super SUA/swing guys. 

He's 22, drafted out of hs, so with 4 pro years. My plan is to keep him in AAA this year, at least for the first few months to delay service time. Here are the vital ratings (projected in parentheses):

DUR - 29 (31)
STA - 65 (65)
CON - 88 (97)
vL - 60 (66)
vR - 68 (80)
Pitches - 94 (100), 67 (72), 58 (66), 57 (60)

What would you do? Set his TPC low and start him every 4 games? How many innings can I hope for in that case?

Or use him as a primary SUA, and go for a lot of high leverage innings? If that route, what's the best way to arrange my settings to make the most use of him?
1/25/2013 5:56 PM
He doesn't look special but there's no reason not to start him.   A PC of 70/80 would give him 2 starts every 9 days, more or less.
1/25/2013 5:58 PM
IMO the guy will not get much better if at all.

He isn't some superman type guy either. 65/29 makes him a decent starter. Who can probably throw 5-6 innings each outing and he can probably start every 4th game most of the time.

I really like his 1st pitch at 94, maybe his 2nd pitch hits 70, and P3&P4 hit 60, but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't either. 

I think as a SP he logs 190 easily and 200+ is not a stretch depending on how often he gets pulled early.
1/25/2013 6:37 PM
Most of his numbers (projected) are pedestrian, however, with, and if, his P1 gets near 100, we really need to know what he projects to with his velocity and groundball ratings.  If those are high, he will be very effective (possible all star type). 

When looking at pitchers, I try to look beyond what everyone else is looking at (splits, control mostly).  In this game you will notice that certain groupings of numbers/ratings equate to high performance with enough experience and if you pay attention.  What I like to call the trifecta when dealing with pitchers and staying away from what everyone else is looking at (splits and control, which are important, but with everyone looking at them they drive the value of the player correspondingly) are the velocity, groundball and P1 ratings.  This is a group, that when paired together with high ratings, will perform in spite of lower splits and/or control.  I have noticed that when this grouping is split, i.e., velocty95, groundball32 and P1-93, you have what is probably an average pitcher.  When you get 95/97/93 out of that group, you are dealing with a guy that will have outstanding numbers. 

Other groupings that are important are batting eye/power, speed/contact.  There are more but if I went into it half the people reading this board will yell I don't know what I am talking about and give me their own opinions, and the other half will soon be looking at the same players I do, which wouldn't be conducive to continued prosperity.

1/25/2013 11:09 PM
Thanks guys, appreciate the input. His GB rating is 83, but velocity is only 20. Definitely a junkballer. He was used as the SUA/closer by the previous owner in AA as a 20yo and posted a 2.12 ERA in 123 innings. The following year, he had 31 appearances, starting 13 games in AAA, posting a 2.63 ERA in 95 innings. So that's the heart of this quandary for me, taking over this franchise this year. He looks like the best pitching prospect I have (which is what I meant by strong prospect - not to say we're looking at the HOF or even AS games at this point!) so I want to have a feel for the best way to utilize him.
1/26/2013 8:04 AM
This is probably the closest I have with the same DUR/STM combo.   He's not as good as your guy and pitched 181 innings last season.    Your guy should get more.

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Pedro Molina
1/26/2013 12:02 PM
I guess I'll be pretty happy if he develops into a guy who can average 6 innings over 30+ starts. Judging by the shape of my rotation right now, I'll probably need him there. Maybe if I had a contending team with 4 other solid starters... but I have probably a 70 win team, with 4 #5 caliber starters, so a super SUA probably has limited value to me.

Finally figured out how to link, should have done this from the start, sorry. Again, I appreciate the input here.

whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx
1/26/2013 12:27 PM
I see him as a LRA or SP5 type.
1/27/2013 3:59 PM
With a respectable defense, that guy is a solid SP3.  Think along the lines of 200 innings with an ERA that fluctuates within the 3.50-4.25 range.
1/27/2013 6:52 PM
1)  He isn't going to improve a ton after his 4th pro season.
2)  As he sits he's going to run ERAs averaging in the low 4s, about league average pitching half his games in Fenway.
3)  He won't have an ERA nearly that good if you let him go much past 80 pitches.  At his quality he'll average 15 or so pitches/inning... his 32 starts should generate about 170 innings.
4)  170 IP at just better than league average ERA  makes him a useful SP4.

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